AI could force 11 million US workers into new careers by 2035

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Millions of Americans may need to find an entirely new career in the next decade, according to research released Tuesday.

An estimated 11 million workers, or about 6.5% of the current labor force, might have to jump into entirely different occupations by 2035 as a result of automation and artificial intelligence adoption, according to a report from consulting firm McKinsey & Co.

The McKinsey Global Institute report predicts that AI could create more jobs than it kills in the next nine years; however, the technological innovation “may require the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in US history.”

“While social media abounds with dire predictions about the impact of AI on labor, the United States is likely to have more jobs available in 2035 than today, but with fewer workers because the population is aging,” according to the report.

McKinsey researchers’ base estimate is that automation could reduce labor demand by 36 million jobs by 2035, while growth in AI-related fields and the broader economy could generate demand for 40 million jobs during that time.

About 25 million of those 36 million affected workers should be able to stay in their current occupations because growth in their industries should offset the impact of automation, McKinsey noted.

“The remaining 11 million may need to switch occupations entirely,” researchers wrote in the report. “The next decade’s challenge is mobility, not scarcity.”

AI impacts notwithstanding, the US labor market already is undergoing a historic transformation as Baby Boomers retire, net immigration slows, and exogenous shocks ripple through the economy.

For two years running, the job market has been in a “low-hire, low-fire” state, a sluggish turnover environment with opportunities for the few but not the many.

That lack of churn was underscored in a separate report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Job openings, a closely watched measure of worker demand, fell to a five-month low at the end of August; the rate of voluntary quits (a gauge of worker confidence) remained near a six-year low; and layoffs shrank for the second month in a row.

This story is developing and will be updated.

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

周二发布的一项研究显示，未来十年，数百万美国人可能需要寻找全新的职业。

据咨询公司麦肯锡公司的一份报告显示，到 2035 年，由于自动化和人工智能的普及，估计有 1100 万工人（约占当前劳动力的 6.5%）可能不得不转行从事完全不同的职业。

麦肯锡全球研究院的报告预测，人工智能在未来九年内创造的就业机会可能会比它造成的失业更多；然而，这项技术创新“可能需要美国历史上规模最大、持续时间最长的劳动力转型”。

报告指出：“尽管社交媒体上充斥着关于人工智能对劳动力市场影响的悲观预测，但到 2035 年，美国的就业岗位可能会比现在更多，但由于人口老龄化，劳动者数量反而会减少。”

麦肯锡研究人员的基本估计是，到 2035 年，自动化可能会减少 3600 万个工作岗位，而人工智能相关领域和更广泛的经济的增长可能会在此期间创造 4000 万个工作岗位的需求。

麦肯锡指出，受影响的 3600 万工人中，约有 2500 万人应该能够继续从事目前的工作，因为他们所在行业的增长应该能够抵消自动化带来的影响。

研究人员在报告中写道：“剩下的1100万人可能需要彻底转行。未来十年的挑战在于流动性，而不是稀缺性。”

撇开人工智能的影响不谈，随着婴儿潮一代退休、净移民放缓以及外生冲击波及经济，美国劳动力市场已经经历了一场历史性的变革。

连续两年，就业市场处于“低招聘、低解雇”状态，人员流动缓慢，机会只属于少数人，而大多数人则不然。

美国劳工统计局周二发布的另一份报告也强调了这种人员流动率低的情况。

8 月底，密切关注的衡量劳动力需求的职位空缺数量降至五个月来的最低点；自愿离职率（衡量工人信心的指标）仍接近六年来的最低水平；裁员人数连续第二个月下降。

此事件仍在发展中，我们将持续更新报道。