Trump promised ‘economic D-Day’ for Iran. So far, actions have come in drips

Majid Asgaripour/Wana News Agency/Reuters

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week instructed diplomats around the world to tell their host countries they must “systematically identify and sever” ties to Iran , and those with branches of Iranian banks must shut them down immediately.

On Friday, the US Treasury Department announced it was targeting a Turkish bank and its subsidiaries that allegedly serve as “critical financial lifelines” to Iran.

They marked the latest sanctions under “Operation Economic Outcast,” a pressure campaign that President Donald Trump had previewed as “economic D-Day” for Iran.

However, rather than a sweeping, singular assault, the measures have come in drips in the nearly two weeks since it was announced.

Meanwhile, there remains deep skepticism from experts and diplomats that the US will take meaningful action against key Iranian partners like China. They also continue to question the impact the sanctions will have on Tehran, which has withstood decades of economic pressure.

“The Iranians have been handling and evading sanctions for half a century for bloody sake, they can take pretty much anything thrown at them,” a regional source said.

Experts have noted that the impact of sanctions takes time. A former senior State Department official noted that signs of economic strain in Iran, like long gas lines or empty grocery shelves, seem to be “part of what has been happening, and not something new.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has disputed the notion that sanctions don’t work and insisted that the US has “never engaged… at this level of intensity.”

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Last week, the Treasury Department proposed cutting off the UAE branches of Banque Misr, Egypt’s second largest bank, from the US financial market. It also sanctioned the general manager of the Dubai branch of Bank Melli, Iran’s biggest bank.

Friday’s sanctions hit Turkey’s Golden Global Bank and its subsidiaries, which Treasury claims have “facilitated tens of millions of dollars’ worth of transactions,” including in oil revenues from China, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force.”

Daniel Tannebaum, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said “the significance isn’t so much in the scale of the bank.” Rather, “it shows, especially in the run-up to the Trump-Xi bilat in a couple weeks, that there’s other countries, including allies… that the US is willing to make a move at.”

Experts and diplomats who spoke with CNN have cast doubts that the administration will make such a move at China.

“If they go at China, it will be very carefully orchestrated, where there are no surprises,” said Tannebaum, who is also a partner at management consulting firm Oliver Wyman.

Trump administration officials, meanwhile, have suggested that Beijing is being more cooperative than it may seem.

“We have more in common with the Chinese on Iran than we disagree with them on,” Bessent said at an event on the sidelines of the G20 Finance Ministers meeting this week.

There is also skepticism that the US will take significant actions against Pakistan or Oman, who also have trade ties with Iran, given their roles in the diplomacy around the war.

“I think they are trying to be balanced and careful. That’s why they’re targeting small banks now and hoping to freak out the others and again trying to be careful not to jeopardize any hope for the peace deal,” another regional source said.

Bessent said this week that the US has seen “great support around the world” for their latest economic campaign.

“We are speaking to our allies here, who have all come forward, and we have had a great show of support,” he said at the G20.

One diplomatic source described discussions with their country so far as being in the explanatory phase.

In the cable sent earlier this week, Rubio told diplomats to inform their host countries about “Operation Economic Outcast.” For embassies in places like London and Muscat, the diplomats were instructed to stress the imperative that “countries take immediate action to shutter all branches of Iranian banks located in their jurisdictions.”

“The bank branches must go dark – immediately,” said the diplomatic cable, which was seen by CNN.

CNN’s Kylie Atwood contributed reporting.

马吉德·阿斯加里普尔/瓦纳通讯社/路透社

美国国务卿马可·卢比奥本周指示世界各地的外交官告知其所在国，必须“系统地识别并切断”与伊朗的联系，而那些拥有伊朗银行分支机构的国家必须立即关闭这些分支机构。

周五，美国财政部宣布将打击一家土耳其银行及其子公司，据称这些银行是伊朗的“关键金融生命线”。

这些制裁标志着“经济排斥行动”下的最新制裁措施出台。唐纳德·特朗普总统曾将这项施压行动预告为伊朗的“经济末日”。

然而，这些措施并非一蹴而就，而是在宣布后的近两周内陆续出台。

与此同时，专家和外交官们仍然对美国是否会对中国等伊朗重要伙伴采取实质性行动深表怀疑。他们也继续质疑制裁会对德黑兰产生何种影响，毕竟伊朗已经承受了数十年的经济压力。

一位地区消息人士称：“伊朗人已经应对和规避制裁长达半个世纪之久，他们几乎可以承受任何制裁。”

专家指出，制裁的影响需要时间才能显现。一位前国务院高级官员指出，伊朗经济紧张的迹象，例如加油站排起长队或超市货架空空如也，似乎“是早已发生的事情的一部分，而不是新出现的现象”。

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特反驳了制裁无效的说法，并坚称美国“从未以如此高的强度参与过制裁”。

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上周，美国财政部提议切断埃及第二大银行埃及银行（Banque Misr）在阿联酋的分支机构与美国金融市场的联系。此外，财政部还制裁了伊朗最大银行伊朗国家银行（Bank Melli）迪拜分行的总经理。

周五的制裁打击了土耳其的黄金环球银行及其子公司，财政部声称这些银行“为伊斯兰革命卫队圣城旅促成了价值数千万美元的交易”，其中包括来自中国的石油收入。

大西洋理事会高级研究员丹尼尔·坦内鲍姆表示，“其意义不在于这家银行的规模。”相反，“它表明，尤其是在几周后特朗普与习近平会晤之前，美国愿意对其他国家，包括盟友……采取行动。”

与 CNN 交谈过的专家和外交官对美国政府是否会对中国采取这样的行动表示怀疑。

“如果他们对中国采取行动，那将会是经过精心策划的，不会有任何意外发生，”坦内鲍姆说道，他同时也是管理咨询公司奥纬咨询的合伙人。

与此同时，特朗普政府官员则表示，北京方面的合作程度可能比表面看起来要高。

贝森特本周在二十国集团财长会议间隙的一次活动上表示：“我们在伊朗问题上与中国的共同点比分歧要多。”

鉴于巴基斯坦和阿曼在围绕这场战争的外交活动中扮演的角色，人们也怀疑美国是否会对这两个与伊朗有贸易联系的国家采取重大行动。

另一位地区消息人士表示：“我认为他们试图保持平衡和谨慎。这就是为什么他们现在针对小型银行，希望以此震慑其他银行，同时也试图小心谨慎，以免危及和平协议的任何希望。”

贝森特本周表示，美国最新的经济行动得到了“全世界的大力支持”。

他在G20峰会上说：“我们正在与我们的盟友进行对话，他们都站了出来，我们得到了极大的支持。”

一位外交消息人士称，目前与该国的讨论仍处于解释阶段。

在本周早些时候发出的电报中，卢比奥指示外交官们将“经济排斥行动”告知各自所在国。对于驻伦敦和马斯喀特等地的使馆，外交官们被指示要强调“各国必须立即采取行动，关闭其管辖范围内所有伊朗银行的分支机构”。

CNN看到的这份外交电报称：“银行分支机构必须立即停止营业。”

CNN记者凯莉·阿特伍德对此报道亦有贡献。