Scientists deliver ‘starkest warning yet’ of profound changes sweeping the planet’s oceans

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The oceans are warming at an alarming pace, bringing far-reaching consequences for which the world is unprepared, according to a report by more than 100 international scientists.

The tenth Copernicus Ocean State Report, published Wednesday, draws on more than four decades of data from satellites, buoys and sensors to take the pulse of the world’s oceans — delivering its “starkest warning yet” about the profound changes they are enduring.

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“The ocean is transforming before our eyes: warming, rising seas and ecosystem degradation are interconnected signs of significant and long-term change,” said Pierre Bahurel, Director General of Mercator Ocean International, the non-profit research institution that produced the report.

On top of long-term changes identified by the report, a monster El Niño is adding even more pressure. This natural climate pattern, characterized by warmer-than-average water temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean, is on track to be the most intense on record.

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Global oceans absorb roughly 90% of the excess heat produced by humans burning fossil fuels and they are warming at an “alarming pace,” according to the report.

The rate of ocean warming has doubled over the past 20 years and sea surface temperatures reached record highs in 2023, 2024 and again in 2026.

Last year, the world’s oceans absorbed an additional 23 zettajoules worth of heat, setting a new record for the ninth year straight , the report noted. To put that into context, it’s equivalent to the energy of 12 Hiroshima bombs going off every second for a year , or roughly 40 times the energy the entire world consumed in 2025.

All this heat has huge ripple effects, driving marine heat waves, fueling stronger and more destructive storms, damaging marine life and increasing sea level rise, both by melting ice and because warmer water takes up more space.

Global averge sea levels have risen by roughly 0.15 inches a year (3.8 millimeters) since 1999 to make a total of nearly 4 inches, with rates accelerating since 2012 — threatening the hundreds of millions who live in coastal regions.

The oceans have also become around 17% more acidic since 1985, as they absorb increasing amounts of carbon pollution.

Ocean acidification is sometimes called “ climate change’s equally evil twin” because of the damage it wreaks on underwater ecosystems, including making it hard for animals such as oysters, lobsters and corals to build and maintain shells and skeletons.

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New reports paint picture of an ‘extremely dangerous’ future with warming expected to blow past key limit

Some regions are particularly stressed by the changes unfolding as the world warms. European seas are under “intense pressure,” said Karina von Schuckmann, a report author and a senior advisor at Mercator Ocean International.

The Mediterranean and Black Seas both experienced record-breaking marine heatwaves in 2024, with some lasting more than 30 days and driving up water temperatures more than 8.3 degrees Fahrenheit (4.6 Celsius) above average, the report found.

“These are not isolated hot spells; they are occurring against a backdrop of sustained ocean warming that is changing the conditions marine ecosystems experience,” said Blanca Fernández-Álvarez, a report author and researcher at The Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies.

Ocean extremes have big impacts on people. The report pointed to Storm Louis in 2024, which brought 26-foot waves to parts of Spain’s coastline, causing one death, widespread power outages and damage to infrastructure.

That same year, a storm brought prolonged and intense winds to Bothnian Bay, between Sweden and Finland. So much water was pushed out of the bay that sea level plunged 60 inches, forcing ferries to stop operating for 18 hours .

Some of the biggest ocean changes are happening in the rapidly-warming Arctic, where sea surface temperatures have risen by around 7.6 degrees Fahrenheit (4.2 Celsius) over the past four decades. Monthly average sea ice levels fell roughly 190,000 square miles per decade between 1979 and 2025 — equivalent to losing an area around the size of Spain every 10 years.

At the other end of the world, record low Antarctic sea ice in 2022 coincided with the first recorded mass breeding failure of Emperor penguins . It’s “a sign that climate change is already reshaping the habitat of ice-dependent species,” the report noted.

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Perhaps those most exposed to ocean changes are small developing island states which are on the frontline of sea level rise, increasingly intense cyclones, storm surges and coral reef die-offs.

“For island states, ocean change is not a distant environmental issue; it is an immediate economic, development and security challenge — and a warning of what many other coastlines will face in the future,” von Schuckmann said.

The report calls for sustained monitoring of the oceans to ensure that governments and communities have the information they need to prepare for what’s coming.

“It is our responsibility to build the permanent capacity to anticipate this transformation,” said Mercator Ocean International’s Bahurel.

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一份由 100 多位国际科学家撰写的报告指出，海洋正以惊人的速度变暖，这将带来深远的影响，而世界对此毫无准备。

周三发布的第十份哥白尼海洋状况报告，利用了来自卫星、浮标和传感器的四十多年的数据，来了解世界海洋的脉搏——并就海洋正在经历的深刻变化发出了“迄今为止最严厉的警告”。

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“海洋正在我们眼前发生变化：变暖、海平面上升和生态系统退化是重大和长期变化的相互关联的迹象，”撰写该报告的非营利研究机构 Mercator Ocean International 的总干事皮埃尔·巴胡雷尔 (Pierre Bahurel) 说。

除了报告中提到的长期变化之外，一场强度惊人的厄尔尼诺现象又带来了更大的压力。这种自然气候模式的特征是太平洋赤道附近海域水温高于平均水平，而此次厄尔尼诺现象的强度有望创下历史新高。

厄尔尼诺现象已经升级为超级厄尔尼诺现象。这对天气意味着什么？

报告称，全球海洋吸收了人类燃烧化石燃料产生的过剩热量的约 90%，而且海洋正在以“惊人的速度”变暖。

过去 20 年，海洋变暖的速度翻了一番，海面温度在 2023 年、2024 年和 2026 年均达到历史最高水平。

报告指出，去年全球海洋吸收了额外的23泽焦耳热量，连续第九年创下新纪录。为了便于理解，这相当于12颗广岛原子弹每秒爆炸一次，持续一年，或者大约是2025年全球能源消耗量的40倍。

所有这些热量都产生了巨大的连锁反应，引发海洋热浪，助长更强劲、更具破坏性的风暴，破坏海洋生物，并加剧海平面上升，这既是因为冰川融化，也是因为温暖的海水占据了更多空间。

自 1999 年以来，全球平均海平面每年上升约 0.15 英寸（3.8 毫米），累计上升近 4 英寸，且自 2012 年以来上升速度加快，威胁着数亿居住在沿海地区的人们。

自 1985 年以来，海洋的酸度也增加了约 17%，这是因为海洋吸收了越来越多的碳污染。

海洋酸化有时被称为“气候变化的邪恶双胞胎”，因为它对水下生态系统造成了破坏，包括使牡蛎、龙虾和珊瑚等动物难以建造和维护贝壳和骨骼。

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最新报告描绘了一幅“极其危险”的未来图景，预计全球变暖将突破关键限值。

随着全球变暖，一些地区面临的变化尤其严峻。报告作者、Mercator Ocean International高级顾问卡琳娜·冯·舒克曼表示，欧洲海域正承受着“巨大的压力”。

报告发现，2024 年地中海和黑海都经历了破纪录的海洋热浪，其中一些持续了 30 多天，导致水温比平均水平高出 8.3 华氏度（4.6 摄氏度）以上。

“这些并非孤立的高温天气；它们发生在持续海洋变暖的背景下，海洋变暖正在改变海洋生态系统所经历的条件，”报告作者、地中海高级研究所研究员布兰卡·费尔南德斯-阿尔瓦雷斯说。

极端海洋天气对人类活动影响巨大。报告指出，2024年的路易斯风暴给西班牙部分沿海地区带来了高达26英尺（约8米）的巨浪，造成一人死亡、大范围停电和基础设施损毁。

同年，一场风暴给瑞典和芬兰之间的波的尼亚湾带来了持续强风。大量海水被推出海湾，导致海平面下降了60英寸，迫使渡轮停运18个小时。

一些最大的海洋变化发生在快速变暖的北极，过去四十年间，北极海面温度上升了约7.6华氏度（4.2摄氏度）。1979年至2025年间，北极海冰月平均面积每十年减少约19万平方英里——相当于每10年失去一个西班牙大小的海冰面积。

在世界的另一端，2022年南极海冰面积创历史新低，与此同时，帝企鹅首次出现大规模繁殖失败的记录。报告指出，这“表明气候变化已经开始重塑依赖冰雪生存的物种的栖息地”。

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或许最容易受到海洋变化影响的是那些处于海平面上升、日益强烈的飓风、风暴潮和珊瑚礁死亡前线的小型发展中岛屿国家。

冯·舒克曼说：“对于岛屿国家而言，海洋变化不是一个遥远的环境问题；它是一个迫在眉睫的经济、发展和安全挑战，也是对许多其他海岸线未来将面临的挑战的警示。”

该报告呼吁对海洋进行持续监测，以确保各国政府和社区获得所需信息，为即将发生的事情做好准备。

“我们有责任建立永久能力来应对这种转变，” Mercator Ocean International 的 Bahurel 说。