Federal regulator probing Trump critic Adam Kinzinger for betting on his own pardon

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Federal regulators are investigating former Rep. Adam Kinzinger for trading on the prediction platform Kalshi about a pardon he received from former President Joe Biden, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

Biden pardoned Kinzinger last year during the final hours of his presidency, along with other members of the House committee that investigated Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election. The preemptive pardons were needed, Biden argued, to protect the lawmakers from possible retaliation by the incoming Trump administration.

Prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let users wager on nearly everything – including sports, entertainment, elections and other political news.

Kinzinger, a Republican and prominent Trump critic, traded less than $1,000 on two pardon-related Kalshi markets in late 2024 and early 2025, sources said, and betted that he would get a pardon from Biden.

He acknowledged making the trades in an interview with CNN but said he never had any insider information about the pardons. He was a private citizen at the time of the trades – out of Congress and not running for office. Kinzinger is a CNN contributor.

A person familiar with the matter said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator that polices prediction markets, is looking into Kinzinger’s trades. Career enforcement officials started scrutinizing the Biden pardon markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket after seeing press reports about potential insider activity, the source said.

Politico previously reported the CFTC inquiry into Kinzinger, which is the first publicly known federal probe into pardon markets on prediction sites.

CNN has maintained a partnership with Kalshi since December and uses its data to cover major events, but CNN editorial employees aren’t permitted to use prediction markets.

The CFTC and Kalshi declined to comment.

In an interview with CNN, Kinzinger admitted to making the trades, saying they were two of a “few dozen” bets he placed about political topics. He said he had reviewed Kalshi’s rules beforehand and that he believed his actions did not violate the rules. He shared screenshots with CNN showing that he wagered a total of $669 and netted $823.

“It was a dumb bet, to bet on myself,” Kinzinger said. “Looking back, I’m like, yeah, I wish I’d have skipped it. But everything I saw at the time was like, you’re within your right to bet on this.”

He also denied that he engaged in insider trading, primarily because he says he did not have any advance knowledge of the pardons and did not discuss potential pardons with the Biden White House. He said he hasn’t heard from any government investigators.

“At no point, ever, had I had a conversation with anybody in the know about pardons (or) whether I’d get pardoned,” Kinzinger said. “Certainly, nobody in the White House or anybody that would know anything.”

Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Kalshi also uncovered Kinzinger’s trades during a broader look into “suspicious” activity and flagged them to the CFTC, another person familiar with the matter said.

The source said Kalshi tried to get in touch with Kinzinger, but he did not respond. It’s common for Kalshi to try to internally settle its probes when small amounts of money are involved and when the trader cooperates. Kinzinger told CNN he never heard from Kalshi.

Prediction platforms have exploded in popularity this year and now see billions of dollars in weekly trading volume. But as they’ve grown, so have calls for more regulation.

Last month, Kalshi fined several political candidates for betting on their own campaigns, violating the company’s insider-trading rules.

The CFTC also recently settled a case with the former Trump White House teleprompter operator for “unlawful” bets on Kalshi about what Trump would say in his speeches. And they settled with former Rep. George Santos for improper trades about whether he would attend the State of the Union.

A bipartisan coalition of 44 states have urged the CFTC to rein in prediction platforms. So have dozens of lawmakers on Capitol Hill, who are backing legislation that would stiffen penalties against insider trading.

Among those who want more regulation is Kinzinger himself. He wrote in a November 2025 Substack post that Kalshi and other prediction sites are a “corruption time bomb” and a “threat to democracy” because politicians can profit from insider knowledge.

凯文迪奇/盖蒂图片社/文件

据两名知情人士向 CNN 透露，联邦监管机构正在调查前众议员亚当·金辛格，他涉嫌在预测平台 Kalshi 上交易有关他是否会获得前总统乔·拜登赦免的预测。

拜登在总统任期即将结束之际，于去年赦免了金辛格，以及其他几位众议院委员会成员。该委员会曾调查唐纳德·特朗普试图推翻2020年大选结果的行为。拜登辩称，这种先发制人的赦免是必要的，可以保护这些议员免受即将上任的特朗普政府可能的报复。

像 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 这样的预测平台允许用户对几乎所有事物进行投注——包括体育、娱乐、选举和其他政治新闻。

据消息人士透露，共和党人金辛格（Kinzinger）是特朗普的著名批评者，他在 2024 年末和 2025 年初在两个与赦免相关的卡尔希（Kalshi）市场交易了不到 1000 美元，并押注他将获得拜登的赦免。

他在接受CNN采访时承认进行了这些交易，但表示自己从未掌握任何关于赦免的内幕消息。交易进行时，他只是个普通公民——已卸任国会议员，也没有竞选公职。金辛格是CNN的撰稿人。

一位知情人士透露，负责监管预测市场的联邦监管机构——商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）正在调查金辛格的交易。该消息人士称，在看到有关潜在内幕交易的新闻报道后，职业执法人员已开始审查Kalshi和Polymarket平台上的拜登赦免交易市场。

Politico 此前报道了美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 对 Kinzinger 的调查，这是联邦政府首次公开调查预测网站上的赦免市场。

自去年 12 月以来，CNN 一直与 Kalshi 保持合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件，但 CNN 编辑人员不允许使用预测市场。

美国商品期货交易委员会和卡尔希均拒绝置评。

在接受CNN采访时，金辛格承认进行了这些交易，并称这是他围绕政治话题进行的“几十笔”赌注中的两笔。他说他事先已经看过卡尔希的规则，并且相信自己的行为没有违反规则。他还向CNN提供了截图，显示他总共下了注669美元，净赚823美元。

“押注自己是个愚蠢的赌注，”金辛格说。“现在回想起来，我真希望当初没赌。但当时我看到的一切都让我觉得，你有权赌这个。”

他还否认自己参与了内幕交易，主要原因是他说自己事先并不知情，也没有与拜登白宫讨论过任何可能的赦免事宜。他还表示，自己没有收到任何政府调查人员的联系。

金辛格说：“我从未与任何知情人士谈论过赦免事宜，也从未讨论过我是否会被赦免。当然，白宫里没有人，或者任何可能知道内情的人，都没有跟我谈过。”

Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg/Getty Images

另一位知情人士表示，卡尔希在对“可疑”活动进行更广泛的调查时，也发现了金辛格的交易，并向美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 报告了这些交易。

消息人士称，卡尔希曾试图联系金辛格，但金辛格没有回应。卡尔希通常会在涉及金额较小且交易员配合调查的情况下尝试内部解决调查。金辛格告诉CNN，他从未收到过卡尔希的任何消息。

今年预测平台迅速崛起，如今每周交易量已达数十亿美元。但随着其发展壮大，要求加强监管的呼声也日益高涨。

上个月，卡尔希公司对几名政治候选人处以罚款，原因是他们为自己竞选活动下注，违反了公司的内幕交易规定。

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）近期还与前特朗普白宫提词器操作员卡尔希达成和解，该案涉及其就特朗普演讲内容进行的“非法”赌博。此外，CFTC还与前众议员乔治·桑托斯达成和解，该案涉及其就桑托斯是否会出席国情咨文演讲进行不当交易。

由44个州组成的跨党派联盟敦促美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）限制预测平台。国会山数十名议员也持相同立场，他们支持一项旨在加大对内幕交易处罚力度的立法。

金辛格本人也是希望加强监管的人士之一。他在2025年11月发表于Substack的一篇文章中写道，Kalshi和其他预测网站是“腐败定时炸弹”，也是“对民主的威胁”，因为政客可以利用内幕消息牟利。