The war with Iran upended markets this month. But not everyone got burned

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It’s been a brutal month for bonds – but stocks have mostly shrugged off the turmoil.

Bond yields hit their highest levels in years , Brent crude rose back above $100 per barrel and central banks around the globe raised interest rates . Yet the S&P 500 is essentially flat this this month, up just 0.1% – a surprisingly calm performance given the pressure building elsewhere in markets.

There are tensions in markets as bond yields hit multi-year highs but stock indexes like the S&P 500 continue to shrug it off. The disconnect is raising questions about how long stocks can withstand the impact of higher bond yields and oil prices.

And bond volatility surged this month, raising concerns about dislocations arising in markets.

The end of September also marks the end of the third quarter, offering a chance to look back at the major trends shaping markets. Here are the biggest losers and biggest winners:

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Bonds have slumped, sending yields higher as investors grapple with concerns about inflation and tighter monetary policy. For the average bond fund, it has meant poor returns.

A Vanguard exchange-traded fund tracking the total US bond market is down 5% this year. Municipal bonds have also struggled: The iShares National Muni Bond ETF is down more than 6% this year.

Bonds are often considered the boring part of a portfolio. But as the Iran energy shock ignites inflation and prompts central banks to tighten, it’s complicating the outlook.

The rise in yields does have a silver lining: Bond funds are now cheaper than they were a few months ago. Yields are also at their highest levels in years, which can offer solid income for new buyers.

The surge in fuel costs and interest rates this year dinged specific industries, putting some stocks in a slump. Shares of cruise ship companies are trying to claw their way out of a hole.

Norwegian Cruise Line shares ( NCLH ) are set for their worst quarterly performance sine the second quarter of 2022, after the onset of Russia’s war with Ukraine. Shares are down 34% this year, driven by a 30% drop this quarter.

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Other cruise companies have felt the pain: Royal Caribbean shares ( RCL ) are down 16% this quarter, putting them down 5% this year. Carnival Corporation ( CCL ) dropped 13% this quarter and almost 20% this year.

However, Carnival reported earnings Tuesday and beat Wall Street’s estimates as strong consumer demand helped offset the impact of higher fuel costs. Analysts said the outlook remains solid, citing resilient consumer demand.

Airlines have also been roiled by the energy shock and surge in jet fuel costs. American Airlines shares ( AAL ) dropped 26% this quarter, putting them down 13% this year.

Higher interest rates may not have not knocked the S&P 500 off course, but precious metals have felt the pressure. Gold futures are down more than 5% this month, silver is down 8% and palladium is down 11%.

Precious metals have slumped as bond yields and central bank rates rose this month. Metals, which don’t pay income, can become less appealing when interest rates rise.

Technology stocks have kept the S&P 500 afloat.

The index is weighted by market capitalization, so the larger a company’s market value, the more influence it has. Big Tech stocks like Meta ( META ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) rallied sharply this quarter, up 30% and 39%, respectively.

The S&P 500 is up more than 2.5% this quarter. But an equal-weight version of the S&P that gives each stock the same weighting is down 1.5%, highlighting the extent to which the market’s gains have been concentrated in tech.

The tech sector is up more than 5% this month, offsetting declines in most other sectors. Communication services, which includes Meta and Alphabet, is the only sector that has seen gains and is up almost 1%.

The surge in oil prices this year has been a boon for companies in the energy sector. Higher crude prices can boost companies’ bottom lines and provide incentives for more production.

Phillips 66 shares ( PSX ) are up 50% this quarter and 90% this year. Chevron shares ( CVX ) are up 23% this quarter, ConocoPhillips ( COP ) has jumped 21% and ExxonMobil ( XOM ) has risen 18%.

The energy and technology sectors are the two top-performing sectors in the S&P 500 this year.

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With all the moves in oil, bonds and stocks, one asset had an unexpectedly strong quarter: bitcoin.

The cryptocurrency has rallied more than 40% this quarter, rebounding from a slump and rising as high as $86,500, its highest level since January.

Bitcoin rallied despite headwinds for the broader crypto industry after the CLARITY Act failed to pass the Senate.

Still, bitcoin is well below its record high from nearly a year ago, when it topped $126,000.

Eight months into the Iran war, investors are reckoning with major shifts in the economy and financial markets. Diesel prices have hit record highs and long-term bond yields are at their highest levels in decades. Still, the economy has been resilient and corporate profits remain robust.

After falling by 5% in the first quarter and rallying 15% in the second, the S&P 500 is set to end the third quarter with a gain of 2%. That would leave the benchmark up 12% this year, on track for a fourth-straight year of double-digit gains.

But those headline numbers are masking a more complicated market.

Technology continues to prop up the S&P 500, even as other parts of the market are showing weakness. For an investor holding standard funds, returns remain solid this year, with the benchmark up more than 10%.

Bonds are a different story. They have taken a hit, and their outlook depends on the path of oil prices and interest rates. The correlation between oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield is at its highest level since the 1990s, according to Cboe Global Markets, highlighting just how important the energy shock has been for the broader market.

Wall Street’s focus for the remainder of the year is on two more Fed rate decisions, another round of corporate earnings and developments in the Middle East.

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债券市场本月遭遇重创，但股票市场大多未受动荡影响。

债券收益率触及多年来的最高水平，布伦特原油价格重回每桶100美元以上，全球各国央行纷纷加息。然而，标普500指数本月基本持平，仅上涨0.1%——考虑到市场其他领域压力不断增加，这一表现令人惊讶地平静。

债券收益率飙升至多年高位，市场情绪紧张，但标普500指数等股票指数却依然表现平静。这种脱节现象引发了人们的疑问：股市究竟能承受多久债券收益率和油价上涨带来的冲击？

本月债券波动性飙升，引发了人们对市场出现混乱的担忧。

九月底也标志着第三季度的结束，这为我们回顾塑造市场的主要趋势提供了一个契机。以下是跌幅最大的股票和涨幅最大的股票：

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由于投资者担忧通胀和货币政策收紧，债券价格暴跌，收益率随之走高。对于普通债券基金而言，这意味着收益不佳。

追踪美国整体债券市场的先锋集团ETF今年下跌了5%。市政债券表现同样不佳：iShares美国市政债券ETF今年下跌超过6%。

债券通常被认为是投资组合中较为乏味的部分。但随着伊朗能源危机引发通胀并促使各国央行收紧货币政策，债券市场前景变得复杂起来。

收益率上升也带来了一线希望：债券基金现在比几个月前更便宜。收益率也处于多年来的最高水平，这可以为新买家提供稳定的收入。

今年燃油成本和利率的飙升对特定行业造成了冲击，导致一些股票暴跌。邮轮公司的股票正努力摆脱困境。

受俄罗斯与乌克兰战争爆发的影响，挪威邮轮公司（NCLH）的股价预计将迎来自2022年第二季度以来最糟糕的季度表现。该公司股价今年已下跌34%，其中本季度下跌30%。

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

其他邮轮公司也受到了冲击：皇家加勒比邮轮公司（RCL）股价本季度下跌16%，今年累计下跌5%。嘉年华邮轮公司（CCL）股价本季度下跌13%，今年累计下跌近20%。

然而，嘉年华邮轮周二公布的财报显示，强劲的消费者需求抵消了燃油成本上涨的影响，其业绩超出华尔街预期。分析师表示，前景依然稳健，并指出消费者需求依然强劲。

能源价格暴跌和航空燃油成本飙升也对航空公司造成了冲击。美国航空公司（AAL）股价本季度下跌26%，今年以来累计下跌13%。

利率上升或许并未对标普500指数造成冲击，但贵金属价格却承受了巨大压力。本月黄金期货下跌超过5%，白银下跌8%，钯金下跌11%。

本月，随着债券收益率和央行利率上升，贵金属价格下跌。由于金属本身不产生收益，利率上升时，它们的吸引力就会降低。

科技股支撑了标普500指数的稳定运行。

该指数按市值加权，因此公司市值越大，其影响力就越大。Meta（META）和微软（MSFT）等大型科技股本季度大幅上涨，分别上涨了30%和39%。

标普500指数本季度上涨超过2.5%。但等权重标普500指数（即每只股票权重相同的指数）却下跌了1.5%，这凸显了市场涨幅在多大程度上集中在科技股。

本月科技板块上涨超过5%，抵消了其他大多数板块的跌幅。通信服务板块（包括Meta和Alphabet）是唯一实现上涨的板块，涨幅接近1%。

今年油价飙升对能源行业的公司来说是一大利好。原油价格上涨可以提高公司的利润，并激励其增加产量。

Phillips 66 (PSX) 的股价本季度上涨了 50%，今年以来累计上涨了 90%。雪佛龙 (CVX) 的股价本季度上涨了 23%，康菲石油 (COP) 上涨了 21%，埃克森美孚 (XOM) 上涨了 18%。

今年标普500指数中，能源和科技板块表现最佳。

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在石油、债券和股票市场剧烈波动的情况下，有一种资产在本季度表现出人意料地强劲：比特币。

该加密货币本季度已上涨超过 40%，从暴跌中反弹，最高达到 86,500 美元，为 1 月份以来的最高水平。

尽管《CLARITY法案》未能获得参议院通过，给整个加密货币行业带来了不利影响，但比特币价格依然上涨。

不过，比特币目前仍远低于近一年前创下的历史最高点，当时其价格突破了 126,000 美元。

伊朗战争爆发八个月以来，投资者正在应对经济和金融市场的重大变化。柴油价格创下历史新高，长期债券收益率也达到数十年来的最高水平。尽管如此，经济依然展现出韧性，企业利润也保持强劲。

标普500指数在第一季度下跌5%后，第二季度反弹15%，预计第三季度将上涨2%。这将使该基准指数今年累计上涨12%，有望连续第四年实现两位数涨幅。

但这些主要数据掩盖了更为复杂的市场情况。

尽管市场其他板块表现疲软，但科技股继续支撑着标普500指数。对于持有标准基金的投资者而言，今年的回报依然稳健，基准指数上涨超过10%。

债券市场的情况则截然不同。债券价格遭受重创，其前景取决于油价和利率的走势。据芝加哥期权交易所全球市场（Cboe Global Markets）的数据显示，油价与10年期美国国债收益率之间的相关性已达到上世纪90年代以来的最高水平，这凸显了能源冲击对整体市场的重要性。

今年剩余时间里，华尔街的关注焦点将放在美联储的两项利率决议、新一轮企业财报以及中东局势的发展上。