Early voting data shows emerging signs of a Democratic advantage in the midterms

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Election Day is still a month away, but more than 690,000 Americans have already voted across at least 29 states. There are signs emerging of the advantage Democrats have in motivating their voters – a trend that’s played out in polling all summer long.

In several states with key Senate or governor races this fall, Democrats make up a larger share of voters requesting ballots so far than they did at this point in 2024.

CNN’S EARLY VOTING TRACKER: View data from the midterms vote so far here .

In Iowa, Democrats have made 67% of ballot requests, up from 54% at this point in 2024. In Pennsylvania, it’s 66%, up from 62%, and in Maine it’s 57%, up from 53%. And according to data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 42% of ballot requests are from Democrats, up from 36% at this point two years ago.

It’s worth noting that in all of those states except for Iowa, ballot requests at this point in 2022 were more Democratic than they are now.

The uptick in the share of requests from Democrats would be in line with polling, special election results and primary turnout, all of which have indicated Democrats may be more motivated to vote this November.

On the other hand, it could just be further evidence of Republicans continuing to shift to preferring other forms of voting.

An important caveat: While the fact that a person has voted is generally public information, your ballot itself is secret, so this data can’t tell us how many votes a party or candidate has won. That won’t be known until states start reporting results after the polls close on November 3.

Early voting data also only shows one slice of voters: a slice that is typically older and less Republican than the electorate as a whole.

Voting patterns have shifted in the last several years as the country has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic.

As mail voting has fallen from its 2020 highs, voters 65 and older have made up a larger share of people choosing to vote that way, going from 27% of mail voters in 2020 to 31% in 2022 and 37% in 2024, according to CNN Exit Poll data.

That’s not unexpected. Mail voting can be a convenient option for older people who might have trouble getting to the polls. In many states where voters need an excuse to vote by mail, age itself can qualify as a reason to receive a mail-in ballot.

There are early signs that that trend is continuing this year.

In nearly every state for which there is comparable data, voters 65 and older make up a larger share of ballot requests this year than they did at this point in either 2022 or 2024.

Perhaps the most positive signs for Democrats so far come from Virginia, which has reported both by far the most total votes of any state in CNN’s count and is the only state which has reported substantial numbers of both early in-person and mail votes.

While Virginia voters don’t register by party, there’s a clear relationship between how a locality voted in 2024 and its relative pace of early voting.

Cities and counties that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 20 percentage points are at 78% of their turnout from this time in 2024, while those that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points are at just 61%.

Partisan turnout, as measured by the share of voters who have only participated in one party’s primaries since 2022, also points to a considerable Democratic advantage in the early voting period relative to the same point in 2024.

While the turnout so far shows a clear advantage in Democratic motivation, Republican voters could close the gap as Election Day nears. It’s still early in the voting period – Virginians cast over 4.5 million votes in 2024 and over 3.4 million votes in 2025. The Senate race in Virginia is not expected to be competitive this year, and Republican voters may be more motivated in more highly contested races.

Still, two competitive House races in the state also suggest a move towards Democrats in terms of enthusiasm.

Democratic primary participants outnumber Republican primary participants by 15 points among votes cast so far in the 1st District and 18 points in the 2nd District. Both districts are battlegrounds currently represented by Republicans facing tough challengers: Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st and Rep. Jen Kiggans in the 2nd.

At the same point in 2024, the partisan composition was relatively split in both districts, with Republican primary voters leading by about 3 points in the 1st District and Democratic primary voters leading by 2 points in the 2nd District.

Statewide, Democratic primary participants outpace Republicans by about 18 points, up from 8 points at the same point in 2024.

Data on pre-election voting is valuable but it does have limits.

Early vote data is compiled by CNN, the Associated Press, and the data firm Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups, including insights into who is voting before November.

The number of votes cast so far is a tiny fraction of the roughly 57 million pre-election votes cast in 2022 and an even smaller share of the roughly 112 million votes cast overall in that election but is expected to grow substantially over the next few weeks.

The data so far is also largely limited to mail ballots, as very few states have started significant early in-person voting. In recent years mail voters have been much more Democratic, while early in-person voters have been more evenly split or Republican leaning.

Kamil Krzaczyski/AFP/Getty Images

距离选举日还有一个月，但至少已有29个州的超过69万美国人提前投票。种种迹象表明，民主党在动员选民方面占据优势——这一趋势在整个夏季的民调中都得到了体现。

在今年秋季即将举行关键参议院或州长选举的几个州，民主党选民目前申请投票的比例比 2024 年同期要高。

CNN提前投票追踪器：点击此处查看目前为止的中期选举投票数据。

在爱荷华州，民主党人提交的选票申请占67%，高于2024年同期的54%。在宾夕法尼亚州，这一比例为66%，高于2024年的62%。在缅因州，这一比例为57%，高于2024年的53%。根据北卡罗来纳州选举委员会的数据，民主党人提交的选票申请占42%，高于两年前同期的36%。

值得注意的是，除爱荷华州外，所有这些州在 2022 年的这个阶段，选票申请都比现在更倾向于民主党。

民主党人提出的请求比例上升，这与民意调查、特别选举结果和初选投票率相符，所有这些都表明，民主党人可能更有动力在今年 11 月投票。

另一方面，这可能只是共和党人继续转向偏好其他投票方式的进一步证据。

需要特别说明的是：虽然选民的投票情况通常是公开信息，但选票本身是保密的，因此这些数据无法告诉我们某个政党或候选人赢得了多少选票。最终结果要等到11月3日投票结束后各州开始公布结果时才能知晓。

提前投票数据也只显示了一部分选民：这部分选民通常比整体选民年龄更大，共和党倾向也更弱。

过去几年，随着该国逐渐走出新冠疫情的阴霾，投票模式也发生了变化。

根据 CNN 出口民调数据，随着邮寄投票数量从 2020 年的高峰回落，65 岁及以上的选民在选择邮寄投票的人群中所占比例越来越大，从 2020 年邮寄投票选民的 27% 上升到 2022 年的 31%，再到 2024 年的 37%。

这并不出乎意料。对于行动不便的老年人来说，邮寄投票不失为一个便捷的选择。在许多需要提供理由才能邮寄投票的州，年龄本身就可以成为获得邮寄选票的理由之一。

种种迹象表明，这一趋势今年还将继续。

在几乎所有有可比数据的州，今年 65 岁及以上的选民在选票申请中所占的比例都比 2022 年或 2024 年同期要高。

到目前为止，对民主党人来说最积极的信号可能来自弗吉尼亚州。根据 CNN 的统计，弗吉尼亚州报告的总投票数遥遥领先于其他任何州，也是唯一一个报告了大量提前现场投票和邮寄投票的州。

虽然弗吉尼亚州的选民不按党派登记，但一个地区在 2024 年的投票结果与其提前投票的相对速度之间存在着明显的联系。

那些以超过 20 个百分点的优势投票支持前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的城市和县，其 2024 年同期投票率已达到 78%；而那些以 20 个百分点的优势投票支持唐纳德·特朗普总统的城市和县，其 2024 年同期投票率仅为 61%。

以 2022 年以来只参加过一个政党初选的选民比例来衡量的党派投票率也表明，与 2024 年同期相比，民主党在提前投票期间具有相当大的优势。

虽然目前的投票率显示民主党选民的积极性明显更高，但随着选举日的临近，共和党选民可能会缩小差距。现在投票还处于早期阶段——弗吉尼亚州选民在2024年投出了超过450万张选票，在2025年投出了超过340万张选票。预计今年弗吉尼亚州的参议院选举竞争不会很激烈，共和党选民在竞争更激烈的选举中可能会更有动力。

不过，该州的两场竞争激烈的众议院选举也表明，选民的热情正在向民主党倾斜。

在第一选区和第二选区，目前已投出的选票中，民主党初选参与者人数分别比共和党初选参与者人数多出15个百分点和18个百分点。这两个选区都是竞争激烈的选区，目前共和党议员分别面临强劲的挑战者：第一选区的罗伯·威特曼议员和第二选区的珍·基根斯议员。

2024 年的同一时期，两个选区的党派构成都相对分裂，共和党初选选民在第一选区领先约 3 个百分点，民主党初选选民在第二选区领先约 2 个百分点。

全州范围内，民主党初选参与者比共和党人多出约 18 个百分点，高于 2024 年同期的 8 个百分点。

选举前投票数据很有价值，但它也有局限性。

提前投票数据由 CNN、美联社和数据公司 Catalist 汇总而成。Catalist 是一家为民主党人、学者和非营利倡导团体提供数据、分析和其他服务的公司，包括提供有关 11 月之前投票情况的见解。

到目前为止，投票数仅占 2022 年大选前约 5700 万张选票的一小部分，与该届选举总共约 1.12 亿张选票相比，比例就更小了，但预计在接下来的几周内将大幅增长。

目前的数据主要限于邮寄选票，因为只有极少数州开始大规模的提前现场投票。近年来，邮寄投票的选民更倾向于民主党，而提前现场投票的选民则两党势均力敌，或倾向于共和党。