Bond market bust: The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002

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In the latest dubious milestone for the US bond market, the yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury note just hit its highest level since the dot-com bust.

At 5.34%, the 10-year yield hasn’t been this high since 2002. It had recently hit its highest level since 2007, and 30-year Treasury yields surged to a more-than-two-decade high.

Investors have been selling off bonds and demanding higher rates at government bond auctions as inflation continues to rise. Higher prices degrade investments over time, and bondholders want to ensure they’re compensated for the effects of higher gas and diesel prices on their investments.

Bondholders are also sending yields higher in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise its target interest rates. The Fed is expected to respond to Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected report on gross domestic product, the broadest measure of US economic activity, in addition to an inflation report that showed prices rising well above the Fed’s target.

The economy appears to be overheating. Unemployment is low – the September jobs report on Friday is expected to show the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, a level economists call “full employment.” Consumer spending remains robust, fueled by a strong stock market. And annual AI infrastructure spending is now measured in the trillions of dollars and is expected to keep growing – even as rates keep rising – over the course of the decade and beyond.

Debt concerns have also weighed on the bond market, as massive government spending from both political parties is putting the country on an unsustainable fiscal path.

The bond market’s problems are hardly isolated to the United States. Debt concerns and resurgent inflation as a result of high oil and fuel prices have sent rates higher all around the world. The 30-year UK government bond just hit 6% Thursday for the first time since 1998.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

美国债券市场又迎来了一个令人担忧的里程碑：10 年期基准国债收益率刚刚达到互联网泡沫破灭以来的最高水平。

10 年期国债收益率达到 5.34%，为 2002 年以来的最高水平。此前不久，该收益率曾达到 2007 年以来的最高水平，而 30 年期国债收益率也飙升至 20 多年来的最高水平。

随着通胀持续攀升，投资者纷纷抛售债券，并在政府债券拍卖中要求提高利率。物价上涨会随着时间的推移降低投资价值，债券持有人希望确保他们的投资能够因汽油和柴油价格上涨而受到损害，并获得相应的补偿。

债券持有人也推高了收益率，他们预期美联储将继续提高目标利率。美联储预计将对周三公布的强于预期的国内生产总值（GDP）报告以及通胀报告做出反应。GDP是衡量美国经济活动的最广泛指标，而通胀报告显示物价上涨远超美联储的目标水平。

经济似乎过热。失业率很低——预计周五公布的9月份就业报告将显示失业率维持在4.1%，经济学家称之为“充分就业”。受强劲股市的推动，消费支出依然强劲。人工智能基础设施的年度支出如今已达数万亿美元，预计在未来十年及更长时间内，即使利率持续上升，这一数字仍将继续增长。

债务问题也给债券市场带来了压力，因为两党政府的大规模支出使国家走上了一条不可持续的财政道路。

债券市场的问题绝非美国独有。债务担忧以及高油价和燃料价格导致的通胀反弹，推高了全球利率。英国30年期国债收益率周四刚刚触及6%，创下1998年以来的新高。

这是一则正在更新的新闻。