Americans are still spending. Friday’s jobs report will show if that can last

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Americans have kept spending despite more than five years of higher prices. But the paychecks that have powered that spending are starting to lose steam.

Friday’s jobs report could show how much further pay gains are falling behind inflation.

The continued resilience of spending, which powers two-thirds of US economic growth, has been attributed to several reasons – mostly gains in wealth, but also demographics, post-pandemic savings, inflation effects, and a robust stock market – but a crucial factor has been the relative stability of the labor market.

“Having a job enables confidence to keep spending despite inflation headwinds,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, noted on Wednesday.

Job growth has improved from last year and unemployment has remained low. However, there are vulnerabilities lurking in this “low-hire, low-fire” labor market: Notably, the paychecks that power that spending are losing their fizzle.

As a result of the energy shock spurred by the US-Israeli war with Iran, inflation has outpaced pay growth for five months running. That’s expected to extend to six when the September jobs report is released Friday.

“The rebound in inflation is coming at an unfortunate time, because it’s being married with a slowdown in wage growth as the labor market cools,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor. “It’s really adding insult to injury for workers at a time when their raises are getting smaller and their benefits are being cut, too.”

Average hourly earnings, a closely watched measurement of workers’ pay changes, is expected to rise 0.3% in September, which could bump up the annual rate by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%.

That’s roughly in line with wage growth seen right before the pandemic; however, inflation (3.4% now) was a different animal then (2.3%). Inflation also likely heated up further in September, rising to 3.6% , according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s inflation projections. Some economists expect an even higher rate.

“Wage growth is moving in the wrong direction as inflation is also moving in the wrong direction,” Zhao said.

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The US economy doesn’t need to add as many jobs as it once did to keep unemployment steady. The labor market is undergoing a structural shift as a result of an aging population, increased retirements from Baby Boomers, and a reduction in net immigration.

And in September, job growth likely was solid enough to stay the course. Economists project that employers added 94,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate held at 4.1% for the third month in a row. If the payroll gains come in as forecast, it would mark a slowdown from the stronger-than-expected 162,000 jobs added in August .

Monthly economic data usually is quite volatile; however, the jobs reports this year have delivered a whipsaw effect (the biggest being a 370,000-job swing from February to March).

The choppiness can be attributed to a variety of factors, including extreme weather ; labor strikes ; methodological calibrations; shifts in hiring patterns ; as well as quirks in the seasonal adjustment process (a methodology to better see employment trends by removing the influences of predictable or recurring patterns from the likes of weather, holidays, school schedules).

“August payrolls benefited from a far more favorable seasonal adjustment than ’25 and ‘24,” Bank of America economists wrote in a note last week. “This raises the risk of September payback in seasonal factors, which could be more or less punitive than what we are penciling in.”

Seasonal factors aside, August’s jobs report and the following weeks’ labor market data point to underlying strength, Bank of America economists noted, flagging broadening job gains and continued low layoff activity.

In August, the variety of industries that added jobs was the widest in nearly two years, BLS data shows.

Healthcare, buoyed by an aging population in need of more medical services, has driven much of the employment gains in recent years.

That’s expected to continue in September; however, industries such as construction (boosted by data center investment); professional and business services (boosted by temp help and technical industries); and logistics and transportation (boosted by a sharp rise in goods imports), also could post stronger gains, BofA economists noted.

That broader hiring effort was on display in ADP’s latest monthly employment snapshot, released Wednesday, which showed a pickup in private-sector job gains for the first time in three months. Employers added an estimated 90,000 jobs in September, the payroll firm reported.

ADP’s monthly estimates don’t always directly correlate to the official jobs report numbers; however, the private-sector hiring report is closely watched as an indicator of the labor market’s trajectory.

Layoff activity hasn’t picked up speed, according to the Labor Department’s weekly reports on unemployment insurance filings. Initial jobless claims have remained muted, while continuing claims for benefits are at their lowest level in more than three years, new data showed Thursday.

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Companies also aren’t signaling plans to drastically cut more jobs. In September, US employers announced plans for 43,281 layoffs, down 18% from August and 20% from last year, according to a report released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“Companies are in a wait-and-see period right now,” said Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer at the outplacement firm.

He noted that the typical surge in seasonal hiring announcements hasn’t occurred this year, suggesting employers are taking a cautious approach.

The low trend in layoffs is expected to be maintained through the end of the year; however, claims could pick up next year as a result of higher interest rates and the growing adoption of artificial intelligence technologies by businesses, Pantheon Macroeconomics economists wrote Thursday.

The labor market also is facing plenty of headwinds.

“Employers are facing high energy costs, an uncertain war in Iran, a rate hike that could make hiring more expensive, plus the likelihood of surging healthcare costs,” Challenger said, noting expectations that health costs and spending could increase for businesses in 2027.

Plus, the “low-fire, low-hire” environment puts the labor market in a more vulnerable, “calm but fragile” position, researchers for the Kansas City Fed wrote Wednesday.

“In a healthy labor market, low unemployment derives from both a relatively low job loss rate and a relatively high job-finding rate,” the researchers wrote. “When low unemployment is driven by a low job loss rate alone, however, the labor market may be more fragile than it initially appears.”

The Trump administration’s late-July suspension of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants has not yet shown up in the payroll data, BofA economists noted.

An estimated 200,000 Haitian TPS holders were in the US workforce, primarily in industries such as healthcare, restaurants, transportation, warehousing and retail trade, according to the note.

September’s jobs report could also start to show some ripple effects of the Fed hiking rates for the first time in three years , said Nicole Bachaud, ZipRecruiter’s labor economist.

Employers and workers alike have already been showing hesitancy as a result of big policy shifts, heightened geopolitical tensions and structural changes in the labor market, she said.

“We’ve seen a lot of this breath-holding, walking on eggshells, stagnation taking place across the market,” she said, noting that the impacts and expectations of higher interest rates could further dampen hiring and make workers less apt to change jobs.

“Typically, when we see interest rates going up, we see job growth slowing a bit, and we haven’t been on a strong, upward trajectory; so, it’s not like we’re slowing off this nice, upward curve,” she said. “We’ll likely see some sort of reversal from the August gains to something more muted.”

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尽管物价上涨已持续五年多，美国人的消费支出依然居高不下。但支撑这种消费的工资增长势头正开始减弱。

周五的就业报告可能会显示工资增长与通胀之间的差距有多大。

消费支出持续保持韧性，为美国经济增长提供了三分之二的动力，这归因于多种原因——主要是财富增长，但也包括人口结构变化、疫情后的储蓄、通货膨胀的影响以及强劲的股市——但一个关键因素是劳动力市场的相对稳定性。

“拥有一份工作能让人有信心在通胀不利的情况下继续消费，”全国保险公司首席经济学家凯西·博斯蒂扬西奇周三指出。

就业增长较去年有所改善，失业率也保持在较低水平。然而，这种“低招聘、低解雇”的劳动力市场也存在一些隐患：值得注意的是，支撑消费的工资增长正在放缓。

受美以两伊战争引发的能源冲击影响，通货膨胀率已连续五个月超过工资增长。预计周五公布的九月份就业报告显示，这种情况将持续到第六个月。

Glassdoor首席经济学家丹尼尔·赵表示：“通胀反弹的时机非常不巧，因为与此同时，随着劳动力市场降温，工资增长也放缓了。这对劳动者来说无疑是雪上加霜，因为他们的加薪幅度越来越小，福利也在削减。”

平均时薪是衡量工人薪酬变化的重要指标，预计 9 月份将上涨 0.3%，这可能会使年增长率上升 0.1 个百分点，达到 3.2%。

这与疫情爆发前的工资增长大致持平；然而，当时的通胀情况（目前为3.4%，而疫情爆发前为2.3%）却截然不同。根据克利夫兰联邦储备银行的通胀预测，9月份通胀可能进一步升至3.6%。一些经济学家预计通胀率还会更高。

赵表示：“工资增长正朝着错误的方向发展，因为通货膨胀也在朝着错误的方向发展。”

艾莉森·乔伊斯/彭博社/盖蒂图片社

美国经济无需像过去那样增加大量就业岗位就能维持失业率稳定。由于人口老龄化、婴儿潮一代退休潮加剧以及净移民减少，劳动力市场正在经历结构性转变。

9月份就业增长势头可能依然强劲。经济学家预测，雇主新增就业岗位9.4万个，失业率连续第三个月维持在4.1%。如果就业增长与预期相符，则较8月份超出预期的16.2万个新增就业岗位有所放缓。

月度经济数据通常波动较大；然而，今年的就业报告却出现了剧烈的波动（最大的波动是 2 月到 3 月就业人数减少了 37 万）。

这种波动可归因于多种因素，包括极端天气；劳工罢工；方法校准；招聘模式的转变；以及季节性调整过程中的怪异之处（一种通过消除天气、假期、学校日程等可预测或重复模式的影响来更好地了解就业趋势的方法）。

美国银行经济学家上周在一份报告中写道：“8月份的非农就业数据受益于比2025年和2024年更为有利的季节性调整。这增加了9月份季节性因素反弹的风险，其影响可能比我们预想的更大，也可能更小。”

美国银行经济学家指出，撇开季节性因素不谈，8 月份的就业报告以及随后几周的劳动力市场数据表明，就业市场潜力强劲，就业增长范围扩大，裁员活动持续低迷。

美国劳工统计局数据显示，8月份新增就业岗位的行业种类之多，是近两年来最广泛的。

近年来，由于人口老龄化导致医疗服务需求增加，医疗保健行业成为就业增长的主要驱动力。

美国银行经济学家指出，预计9月份这一趋势将持续；然而，建筑业（受数据中心投资推动）、专业和商业服务业（受临时工和技术行业推动）以及物流和运输业（受商品进口大幅增长推动）等行业也可能取得更强劲的增长。

ADP周三发布的最新月度就业报告显示，私营部门就业增长三个月来首次出现回升，这表明企业正在加大招聘力度。这家薪资服务公司报告称，9月份雇主新增就业岗位约9万个。

ADP 的月度估算数据并不总是与官方就业报告数据直接相关；然而，私营部门招聘报告被密切关注，因为它是劳动力市场走向的指标。

根据劳工部每周发布的失业保险申请报告，裁员活动并未加速。周四公布的新数据显示，首次申请失业救济人数保持低位，而持续申请失业救济人数则处于三年多来的最低水平。

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

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企业也没有发出大幅裁员的计划。根据Challenger, Gray & Christmas周四发布的一份报告，9月份美国雇主宣布的裁员计划为43281人，比8月份下降18%，比去年同期下降20%。

“目前各公司都处于观望阶段，”职业介绍公司首席营收官安迪·查伦杰表示。

他指出，往年季节性招聘公告的激增今年并未出现，这表明雇主们正在采取谨慎的态度。

万神殿宏观经济经济学家周四撰文称，预计裁员的低迷趋势将持续到年底；然而，由于利率上升和企业越来越多地采用人工智能技术，明年的裁员申请可能会增加。

劳动力市场也面临诸多不利因素。

Challenger 表示：“雇主们正面临高昂的能源成本、伊朗战争的不确定性、可能导致招聘成本上升的利率上涨，以及医疗保健成本飙升的可能性。”他指出，预计到 2027 年，企业的医疗成本和支出可能会增加。

此外，堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的研究人员周三写道，“低解雇、低招聘”的环境使劳动力市场处于更加脆弱、“平静但易碎”的状态。

研究人员写道：“在健康的劳动力市场中，低失业率源于相对较低的失业率和相对较高的就业率。然而，如果低失业率仅仅是由低失业率驱动的，那么劳动力市场可能比表面看起来更加脆弱。”

美国银行经济学家指出，特朗普政府在7月下旬暂停海地移民临时保护身份的决定尚未反映在工资数据中。

据该报告称，估计有 20 万海地临时保护身份持有者在美国工作，主要从事医疗保健、餐饮、运输、仓储和零售贸易等行业。

ZipRecruiter 的劳动力经济学家妮可·巴肖德表示，9 月份的就业报告也可能开始显示出美联储三年来首次加息的一些连锁反应。

她表示，由于政策的重大转变、地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及劳动力市场的结构性变化，雇主和雇员都已表现出犹豫不决的态度。

“我们看到整个市场都出现了这种屏息凝神、如履薄冰、停滞不前的局面，”她说道，并指出利率上升的影响和预期可能会进一步抑制招聘，使员工更不愿意更换工作。

“通常情况下，当利率上升时，就业增长会略有放缓，而我们目前的就业增长势头并不强劲；所以，我们并非是在结束这段良好的上升曲线，”她说道。“我们可能会看到8月份的增长势头有所逆转，转而呈现更为平缓的态势。”