UK PM Burnham says Iran likely behind RAF base incident: Is there evidence?

UK, US and Israeli officials point to Iranian involvement but remain tight-lipped on details.

Police officers guard an area as roadblocks remain in place near RAF Fairford airbase, in Fairford, Gloucestershire, UK, September 29 [Toby Shepheard/Reuters]

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the UK’s security services have “strong indications” of Iranian involvement in the incident at a British Royal Air Force (RAF) station near Fairford this week in which five men were arrested before they were released on bail.

The five British men were spotted near the airbase and arrested on Sunday on suspicion of “terrorism” and explosives offences, before they were released.

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The United States has used the British base to carry out operations in various conflicts, including to deploy bombers in its war against Iran.

Iran has strongly denied any involvement with the airbase incident, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying British authorities are “barking up the wrong tree”.

So, what do we know about the incident, and is there evidence Iran played a role?

What happened at the airbase?

Authorities were alerted to suspicious activity near the base early Sunday morning, including three vans parked oddly and a group of hooded, masked men.

Police responded and arrested five British men in their early 20s in the nearby Whelford area, saying they were suspected of explosives offences. Counter Terrorism police later took over the probe and said the men were suspected of preparing “a terrorist act”.

The suspects were released on bail Monday , but remain subject to “stringent conditions on their movement and contact with others,” according to the United Kingdom’s head of counter terrorism policing, Laurence Taylor.

On Tuesday, after three days of investigations, including using a bomb disposal team, police said they had found no explosives in the vehicles that were parked the near the base, but had retrieved a “quantity of petrol”.

Who is linking the incident to Iran, and have they cited evidence?

Officials in the UK, the US and Israel have all pointed to Iran but offered no details.

Burnham on Wednesday spoke of “strong indications” of Iran’s involvement and said an “ongoing, complex and serious police investigation” is continuing.

However, the prime minister did not give any details on what the suspects were planning or why the UK thinks Iran was involved, saying only that he would “update people more in due course”.

In the US, President Donald Trump said the case “might be” Iran-linked and that the US had been keeping tabs on the suspects “for a long time”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the case “clearly involved the hands of a foreign actor”, without naming a specific state.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had forewarned the UK about a potential “Iranian-sponsored attack”.

How has Iran responded?

Iran has firmly denied involvement.

In a statement on Monday, Iran’s embassy in London said it “categorically rejects and strongly condemns” any attempts to link Iran to the individuals arrested near the airbase.

It said the spread of such “fabricated speculations” fuel “Iranophobia propaganda” and that Iran reserves the right to “take appropriate legal measures”.

On Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the UK was “barking up the wrong tree” by pointing to potential Iranian involvement.

Why has the UK released the suspects on bail?

It is unclear. Under British “counterterrorism law”, police can hold suspects for up to two weeks before charging them. However, if authorities find little evidence to support their initial suspicion of “terrorism”, they would have far less time – usually 24 to 36 hours, said Chris Phillips, a former head of the UK’s National Counter Terrorism Security Office.

“If it’s not an actual terrorist attack, then the police don’t have anywhere near as long to keep them in custody,” said Phillips. “I think the police just need more time to do their enquiries.”

Andrew Silke, professor of criminology at Royal Holloway, University of London, said the suspects could have also been released on bail while under suspicion of “terrorism” if “authorities feel relatively confident that these individuals do not pose an imminent danger of either carrying out or organising a terrorist attack”, such as if they had “peripheral” or “unknowing involvement”.

Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow in international relations and security at Loughborough University and a former senior Royal Air Force officer, said the bail release does not necessarily indicate that the “Iranian-involvement hypothesis has been rejected” but it does mean “police have judged that these individuals did not present any immediate danger”.

Taylor, the head of counter terrorism policing, said the men’s release on bail was an “investigative decision” based on “experience and careful considerations of policing powers.” He stressed that the men are bound by “stringent conditions on their movement and contact with others” as the investigation into them continues.

But their release drew backlash in the US from Trump, who said British authorities “should not have done that”.

“How do you give bail to a terrorist?” Trump asked.

Iran’s Araghchi appeared to suggest that the suspects’ release supported Iran’s position that it was not involved.

“I can confirm Iran’s belief that releasing supposed terrorists working for foreign states really says it all,” wrote Araghchi in a post on X.

What questions about the case are still unanswered?

Questions remain about the circumstances in which authorities were initially alerted to suspicious activity near the base, the extent to which they believe the suspects are linked to Iran and what the suspects may have been planning.

According to the BBC, police received two early-morning calls on Sunday regarding suspicious vehicles near the base, the first of which the media understands was made by one of the suspects themselves.

The Times of London reported that police are looking into the suspect’s motives for making such a call, including “whether he got cold feet or whether it was part of the plan”.

Authorities are also probing whether the incident was a form of “surveillance, a ‘dry run’ to test security or a stunt to send a message to the British government”, reported The Times.

Meanwhile, police have suggested they are looking into whether the suspects could have been unwittingly acting on Iran’s behalf.

In an updated briefing on Tuesday, Taylor said officials were examining whether the activity could have been “committed by proxies, or individuals either knowingly or unknowingly, working on behalf of a foreign state”.

He also spoke more generally about the “increasing breadth and complexity” of threats facing the UK, saying threats often emerge first as small-scale criminal activity, “committed by individuals whose primary aim is not terrorism but a quick financial gain”.

Phillips told Al Jazeera he believes the suspects could have been recruited online to carry out some type of malicious activity that falls short of a “terrorist attack”.

“It sounds as though these people have been paid online to do some naughty work”, such as “setting fire to something”, said Phillips.

He said both Russia and Iran have allegedly paid “stooges” to carry out such acts in recent years. “At first glance now, it seems that that may be the case, but time will tell,” Phillips added.

Royal Holloway’s Silke also said he believes the evidence suggests “a proxy explanation”.

“Certainly, there have been recent cases in Europe where individuals have been used unwittingly as proxies by foreign governments to carry out activities which have a hostile intent,” he said. “The UK authorities in this case may have assessed that something similar had happened here, and that the individuals involved had no inherent terrorist motivation themselves, but had been caught up unintentionally in a larger plot.”

Has Iran previously been accused of plots in the UK?

Yes. MI5 Director General Ken McCallum said in October 2025 that the agency had tracked “more than 20 potentially lethal Iran-backed plots” in the UK within a year.

McCallum alleged that Iran, along with Russia, has resorted to “ugly methods,” such as “surveillance, sabotage, arson or physical violence”.

British Security Minister Dan Jarvis has said Iran often uses criminal proxies to “obfuscate” its involvement in attacks, which have targeted Iranian dissidents and Jewish and Israeli people in the country.

In March this year, British police arrested four people on suspicion of helping Iran spy on the local Jewish community. The month after, police said they were probing possible Iran links to a series of arson attacks on Jewish targets ‌in London.

In June, two Romanian men whom British prosecutors said had acted as proxies for Iran’s government were handed lengthy jail terms for stabbing a British journalist of Iranian origin who wrote for an Iranian media outlet critical of Iran’s government.

Iran’s government has repeatedly denied involvement in any illegal plots or attacks on British.

英国、美国和以色列官员都指出伊朗参与其中，但对细节仍守口如瓶。

9月29日，在英国格洛斯特郡费尔福德，警察在皇家空军费尔福德空军基地附近警戒，路障仍然存在。[托比·谢泼德/路透社]

英国首相安迪·伯纳姆表示，英国安全部门有“强烈迹象”表明伊朗参与了本周发生在费尔福德附近英国皇家空军基地的事件，该事件导致五名男子被捕，随后他们获得保释。

周日，五名英国男子在空军基地附近被发现，并因涉嫌“恐怖主义”和爆炸物犯罪而被捕，之后被释放。

列表 1/3 “强烈迹象”表明伊朗与疑似英国空军基地阴谋有关

列表 2（共 3 项）：伊朗是否正在失去对霍尔木兹海峡的影响力？

伊朗在首都举行“烈士”无人机阅兵式（共3条，此为第3条）

美国曾利用英国的这个基地在各种冲突中开展行动，包括在对伊朗的战争中部署轰炸机。

伊朗强烈否认与空军基地事件有任何关联，外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇表示，英国当局“找错了对象”。

那么，我们对这起事件了解多少？是否有证据表明伊朗参与其中？

空军基地发生了什么事？

周日清晨，当局接到报告称基地附近有可疑活动，包括三辆停放位置奇怪的货车和一群戴着兜帽和面具的男子。

警方迅速做出反应，在附近的惠尔福德地区逮捕了五名二十岁出头的英国男子，称他们涉嫌爆炸物犯罪。反恐警察随后接手调查，并表示这些人涉嫌策划“恐怖袭击”。

据英国反恐警察负责人劳伦斯·泰勒称，嫌疑人周一获得保释，但仍受到“严格的行动和与他人接触的限制”。

周二，经过三天的调查，包括动用拆弹小组，警方表示，他们在停放在基地附近的车辆中没有发现爆炸物，但找到了“一定数量的汽油”。

是谁将这起事件与伊朗联系起来的？他们是否提供了证据？

英国、美国和以色列的官员都把矛头指向了伊朗，但没有提供任何细节。

伯纳姆周三表示，有“强烈迹象”表明伊朗参与其中，并称“正在进行、复杂且严肃的警方调查”仍在继续。

然而，首相没有透露嫌疑人计划的任何细节，也没有说明英国为何认为伊朗参与其中，只是表示他会在适当的时候“向民众提供更多信息”。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，此案“可能”与伊朗有关，美国“长期以来”一直在监视嫌疑人。国务卿马可·卢比奥表示，此案“显然涉及外国势力”，但没有指明具体是哪个国家。

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示，以色列已就一起潜在的“伊朗支持的袭击”向英国发出警告。

伊朗对此作何回应？

伊朗坚决否认参与其中。

伊朗驻伦敦大使馆周一发表声明称，伊朗“断然拒绝并强烈谴责”任何将伊朗与在空军基地附近被捕的个人联系起来的企图。

声明称，此类“捏造的猜测”的传播助长了“反伊朗宣传”，伊朗保留“采取适当法律措施”的权利。

周三，伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇表示，英国将矛头指向伊朗可能参与其中是“找错了方向”。

英国为何允许嫌疑人保释？

目前尚不清楚。根据英国“反恐法”，警方可以在提出指控前拘留嫌疑人长达两周。然而，英国国家反恐安全办公室前负责人克里斯·菲利普斯表示，如果当局发现几乎没有证据支持他们最初对“恐怖主义”的怀疑，那么他们的拘留时间就会短得多——通常只有24到36小时。

菲利普斯说：“如果不是真正的恐怖袭击，那么警方拘留他们的时间就短得多。我认为警方只是需要更多时间进行调查。”

伦敦大学皇家霍洛威学院犯罪学教授安德鲁·西尔克表示，如果“当局相对确信这些人不会构成实施或组织恐怖袭击的迫在眉睫的危险”，例如如果他们只是“边缘性”或“不知情的参与”，那么即使嫌疑人涉嫌“恐怖主义”，他们也可以获得保释。

拉夫堡大学国际关系与安全访问学者、前英国皇家空军高级军官阿夫扎尔·阿什拉夫表示，保释并不一定表明“伊朗参与的假设已被否定”，但这确实意味着“警方认为这些人没有构成任何直接危险”。

反恐警务负责人泰勒表示，允许这些人保释是“基于经验和对警务权力的慎重考虑而做出的调查决定”。他强调，在对他们的调查继续进行期间，这些人的行动和与他人接触都受到“严格的限制”。

但他们的获释在美国引起了特朗普的强烈反对，特朗普表示英国当局“不应该这样做”。

“你怎么能保释恐怖分子呢？”特朗普问道。

伊朗的阿拉格奇似乎暗示，嫌疑人的释放支持了伊朗的立场，即伊朗没有参与其中。

“我可以证实伊朗的观点，即释放为外国效力的所谓恐怖分子，这足以说明一切，”Araghchi 在 X 上发帖写道。

关于此案还有哪些问题尚未解答？

关于当局最初在何种情况下得知基地附近有可疑活动、他们认为嫌疑人与伊朗的联系程度以及嫌疑人可能正在策划什么，仍然存在疑问。

据 BBC 报道，周日清晨，警方接到两通关于基地附近可疑车辆的报警电话，据媒体了解，第一通电话是由其中一名嫌疑人自己拨打的。

《伦敦时报》报道称，警方正在调查嫌疑人拨打该电话的动机，包括“他是临阵退缩了还是计划的一部分”。

据《泰晤士报》报道，当局还在调查这起事件是否是一种“监视行为、一次测试安全性的‘演练’，或者是为了向英国政府传递某种信息而进行的噱头”。

与此同时，警方表示正在调查嫌疑人是否可能在不知情的情况下代表伊朗行事。

泰勒在周二的最新简报中表示，官员们正在调查该活动是否可能是“代理人，或有意或无意代表外国政府行事的个人所为”。

他还更广泛地谈到了英国面临的威胁“日益广泛和复杂”，称威胁通常首先表现为小规模的犯罪活动，“这些活动是由那些主要目的不是恐怖主义而是快速获取经济利益的个人实施的”。

菲利普斯告诉半岛电视台，他认为这些嫌疑人可能是通过网络招募的，目的是进行某种恶意活动，但这种活动还不足以构成“恐怖袭击”。

菲利普斯说：“听起来这些人好像在网上收了钱，去做一些不正当的事情”，比如“放火烧东西”。

他表示，俄罗斯和伊朗近年来都涉嫌雇佣“傀儡”实施此类行动。“乍一看，情况似乎确实如此，但时间会证明一切，”菲利普斯补充道。

皇家霍洛威大学的西尔克也表示，他认为证据表明存在“替代解释”。

他说：“当然，最近欧洲确实发生过一些案例，一些个人在不知情的情况下被外国政府利用，充当代理人，从事敌对活动。英国当局可能评估认为，类似的事情也发生在英国，涉案人员本身并没有恐怖主义动机，而是无意中卷入了一场更大的阴谋。”

伊朗此前是否曾被指控在英国策划阴谋？

是的。英国军情五处处长肯·麦卡勒姆在2025年10月表示，该机构在一年内追踪到了英国境内“20多起可能致命的伊朗支持的阴谋”。

麦卡勒姆声称，伊朗与俄罗斯一道，诉诸于“丑陋的手段”，例如“监视、破坏、纵火或暴力”。

英国安全部长丹·贾维斯表示，伊朗经常利用犯罪代理人来“掩盖”其参与的袭击，这些袭击的目标是伊朗异见人士以及该国的犹太人和以色列人。

今年3月，英国警方逮捕了四人，他们涉嫌协助伊朗监视当地犹太社区。一个月后，警方表示正在调查伊朗是否与伦敦一系列针对犹太目标的纵火袭击有关。

今年6月，两名罗马尼亚男子因刺伤一名为批评伊朗政府的伊朗媒体撰稿的伊朗裔英国记者而被判处长期监禁。英国检察官称，这两名男子充当了伊朗政府的代理人。

伊朗政府一再否认参与任何针对英国人的非法阴谋或袭击。