With a new breed of candidate, Democrats are challenging in states they usually lose

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President Donald Trump’s flagging popularity isn’t the only problem Republicans face this fall.

A slate of strong Democratic hopefuls is putting in play Senate races long assumed to be heading for the Republican column. Stumbling GOP candidates in several pivotal contests, meanwhile, threaten to turn a tough November into an electoral collapse.

After years of struggling to connect with voters, some Democratic recruits have expanded the battlefield and are beginning to redress the failures in positioning, policy and language that helped fuel Trump’s dominance.

This is giving the party resurgent hopes of the net gain of four seats it needs to control the Senate, even as it moves into prime position to win a House majority next month.

In North Carolina, polls show two-term former Gov. Roy Cooper is popular with independents and is sufficiently competitive in rural areas to dent GOP margins.

In a more surprising turn, Iowa state legislator Josh Turek , a self-declared “common sense prairie populist,” is making a race of it in a state where the president romped home by 13 points only two years ago.

In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, another candidate representing generational change, has created a distinct political persona with disdainful critiques of Trump. His swing-state success and rising national profile have stirred speculation he may be what his party is looking for in the 2028 presidential campaign.

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In Texas, James Talarico is testing out a bespoke infusion of economic populism and Christian faith to conjure Democratic hopes that the ever-shimmering mirage of a statewide victory can become reality for the first time in 30 years.

In Ohio, which Trump won at a canter in 2024, former Sen. Sherrod Brown has found that his perennial message of blue-collar populism is meeting its moment as an increasingly distant president pals around with billionaires.

Each of these candidates, is, in their own ways, seeking to capture something beyond Trump’s unpopularity and a sense of national economic unease; they are also trying to reinvent the brand of a party that squandered voter trust in recent years and drove some of its core voters toward the Republican president.

A roster of strong candidates is especially important to Democrats this year because the country still views the party largely negatively. A CNN/SSRS survey in late July showed that the public favors Democrats this fall by 8 points , but congressional Democrats and Republicans are about equally unpopular and there are low hopes for what possible Democratic majorities might achieve.

Some Democrats lucked out with problematic GOP opponents — like MAGA champion Rep. Mike Collins in Georgia and scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas, who were backed by Trump over the reservations of establishment GOP leaders. In North Carolina, Michael Whatley is well known within GOP circles as a former Republican National Committee chair, but he has toiled to match Cooper’s name recognition.

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Sometimes circumstances threaten to overwhelm even candidates regarded as well suited to their races. In Iowa, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson , a relatable former TV anchor and strong communicator, is immersed in the state’s key issues. She’d normally be a favorite to win the Senate seat soon to be vacated by Joni Ernst, but the farm state is being hammered by Trump’s tariffs and high fuel costs.

Of course, any candidate can look like a genius if they win. And losers are always second-guessed.

The most intriguing Senate race may be in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed is the most high-risk Democratic candidate in a critical race. If he wins, the 41-year-old epidemiologist will be a herald of a new political generation and star of the progressive movement. But if former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers prevails, left-wing Democratic base voters who rejected the more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens will be accused of throwing away a seat, and possibly the Senate.

Candidates who blend skill, discipline and relatability while crossing ideological lines are like gold dust.

But there are two even more important qualities: luck and timing.

Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins has often seemed to possess mythical survival qualities. But she’s facing her toughest reelection race yet in a dark national environment for Republicans. The clamor of the Trump era has roughed up her reputation for independence and forced choices that drag her between her base and more moderate voters — like her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Now she’s being branded by her Democratic opponent as an enabler of Trump rather than a bulwark against him.

Nothing is settled a month from Election Day.

Recent Senate polls show no clear leader in Texas; a slightly better picture for Democrats in Iowa; and campaigns mostly leaning toward the party in Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. But races often narrow late. In 2024, for instance, Brown led in the Buckeye state in late September but ended up losing his Senate seat to Bernie Moreno. And who can forget the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll that showed Vice President Kamala Harris beating Trump a few days before he trounced her in that state by the only measure that actually matters?

But Democrats are confident because the biggest influence on a midterm election remains the fortunes of the incumbent president. Trump’s low approval numbers and Americans’ concerns about high living costs, AI and the Iran war make this an especially dicey year for GOP candidates.

“When the president’s party controls Congress, the president is the referendum, but the party and their candidates are the targets,” said Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College in North Carolina.

Yet it’s not unusual for parties to fumble while in a good position. Trump’s backing for error-prone candidates like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia in 2022, for example, helped Democrats cling onto the Senate despite then-President Joe Biden’s unpopularity. This is one reason why some in the party worry about the prospects of El-Sayed and the late replacement nominee Troy Jackson in Maine.

This is also a worry in the House.

Some Democrats fear that primary victories by ultra-progressive candidates may have produced nominees too radical for the electorate as the GOP warns that “communists” and “socialists” are running rampant. Most of these wins were in deeply blue states. But in California’s 22nd District, a key battleground that Trump narrowly won in 2024, Democrat Randy Villegas defeated a moderate primary rival preferred by the party’s Washington leaders. And in Maine, another progressive, Matt Dunlap, also defeated an establishment rival for the right to run in a key general election swing district.

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Victories by Cooper or Turek in November could give Democrats important clues about how they widen their appeal after a period up to 2024 in which their policies on immigration, gender identity issues and inflation drove away some moderate voters.

Often, in the 21st century, the party’s cultural messaging appealed to the liberal cities and college-educated voters in the suburbs but alienated rural and working-class voters who once turned naturally to Democrats but deserted the party for Trump.

Cooper may be their answer in one Southern state.

The former governor is not running an overtly partisan Democratic campaign. He presents his candidacy as a chance for North Carolina to send an “independent” voice to the Senate. He’s using the key issue of the election — affordability — as a bridge to voters of both parties with his “Make Stuff Cost Less” tours and slogans like, “There is too much month at the end of the money.” Cooper’s earned the trust of moderates over long years in public office. He comes across as steady and understated and remembers working with Republicans in the state legislature as he courts voters who’ve tired of Trump’s chaos.

It seems to be working, with polls suggesting he holds a comfortable lead over Whatley. Bitzer, who has conducted polling that confirms findings in other surveys that Cooper leads among independents, says the former governor also does far better in rural areas where the GOP typically pads out wins in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Barack Obama in 2008.

This kind of coalition is important because polls show that while voters are looking to punish Trump, they are still skeptical of Democrats. This is one reason why elections expert Charlie Cook argues the midterms are seeing not a blue wave but a “ red undertow .”

Bitzer said that Cooper’s experience equips him to “recognize that (in) North Carolina … that moderate middle can tip one way or the other. And he knows how to appeal both to his party’s base, but also to that moderate middle that may split their tickets.”

Turek is trying something similar in Iowa. He’s evoking the legacy of moderate Democratic Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, who served 40 years in Congress for a state that went twice for Barack Obama and three times for Trump. He’s stressing the punishing affordability crisis, poor access to healthcare, high rates of cancer in the state and what he calls Washington “corruption.” But Turek largely avoids cultural and social issues at the center of much national Democratic and progressive messaging. He supports the Second Amendment and a strong border policy.

“The Democratic brand is certainly damaged,” Turek said on a recent edition of “The Weekly Show” with Jon Stewart, describing his ideological positioning as a member of Iowa’s state legislature. “There are times where I have more agreement with my moderate Republicans on issues than with my most extreme left-wing Democrats,” he said.

That stance may help shield Turek against GOP claims that the Democratic Party is careening toward its far-left flank.

And if the message is a winner this fall, it may provide the party with a blueprint that stretches beyond the midterms.

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唐纳德·特朗普总统支持率下滑并不是共和党今年秋季面临的唯一问题。

一批实力强劲的民主党候选人正在改变人们长期以来认为共和党将赢得的参议院席位争夺格局。与此同时，共和党候选人在几场关键选战中表现不佳，有可能使原本艰难的11月大选演变成一场选举溃败。

经过多年努力与选民建立联系后，一些民主党新成员扩大了战场，并开始纠正在定位、政策和语言方面的失败，这些失败助长了特朗普的统治地位。

这使得该党重新燃起了赢得参议院多数席位所需的四个席位的希望，同时，该党也处于下个月赢得众议院多数席位的有利位置。

北卡罗来纳州的民调显示，曾任两届州长的罗伊·库珀在独立选民中很受欢迎，并且在农村地区具有足够的竞争力，足以削弱共和党的优势。

更令人惊讶的是，自称“务实草原民粹主义者”的爱荷华州议员乔什·图雷克，正在该州发起一场激烈的竞选。而就在两年前，总统在该州以 13 个百分点的优势轻松获胜。

在佐治亚州，另一位代表世代更迭的民主党候选人乔恩·奥索夫，凭借对特朗普的尖锐批评，塑造了鲜明的政治形象。他在摇摆州的成功以及不断提升的全国知名度，引发了人们的猜测：他或许正是民主党在2028年总统大选中苦苦寻觅的人选。

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在德克萨斯州，詹姆斯·塔拉里科正在尝试将经济民粹主义和基督教信仰相结合，以期唤起民主党人的希望，让他们相信30年来首次在全州范围内取得胜利的希望能够成为现实。

在特朗普于 2024 年轻松赢得的俄亥俄州，前参议员谢罗德·布朗发现，随着一位越来越疏远民众、与亿万富翁们称兄道弟的总统走得越来越近，他一贯宣扬的蓝领民粹主义信息正迎来了它的用武之地。

这些候选人都在以各自的方式，试图抓住特朗普不受欢迎和全国经济不安情绪之外的东西；他们也试图重塑近年来挥霍了选民信任并导致一些核心选民倒向共和党总统的政党的品牌。

今年，对于民主党而言，拥有一批实力强劲的候选人尤为重要，因为美国民众对该党的整体看法仍然较为负面。CNN/SSRS在7月下旬进行的一项民调显示，公众对民主党的支持率领先8个百分点，但国会民主党人和共和党人的支持率几乎不相上下，人们对民主党即便赢得多数席位，最终能取得怎样的成绩也并不抱太大希望。

一些民主党人运气不错，遇到了棘手的共和党对手——比如佐治亚州的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动支持者、众议员迈克·柯林斯，以及丑闻缠身的德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿，尽管共和党建制派领导人有所保留，但特朗普仍然支持他们。在北卡罗来纳州，迈克尔·沃特利作为前共和党全国委员会主席，在共和党圈内颇有名气，但他一直努力追赶库珀的知名度。

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有时，即使是那些被认为非常适合竞选的候选人，也会被形势所压垮。在爱荷华州，共和党众议员阿什利·欣森（Ashley Hinson）是一位平易近人、沟通能力强的前电视主播，她正全身心投入到该州的关键议题中。通常情况下，她会是即将由乔尼·恩斯特（Joni Ernst）空出的参议院席位的热门人选，但这个农业州正遭受特朗普关税和高油价的双重打击。

当然，任何候选人如果获胜，都会显得很聪明。而失败者总是会被人质疑。

最引人关注的参议院选举或许是密歇根州，阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德是这场关键选战中风险最高的民主党候选人。如果他胜出，这位41岁的流行病学家将成为新一代政治领袖和进步运动的明星。但如果前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯获胜，那些拒绝了较为温和的众议员海莉·史蒂文斯的左翼民主党选民将被指责白白送走了一个席位，甚至可能丢掉了整个参议院。

能够兼具技能、自律和亲和力，同时又能跨越意识形态界限的候选人，简直是凤毛麟角。

但还有两个更重要的因素：运气和时机。

缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯似乎一直拥有着一种不可思议的生存能力。然而，在共和党全国形势严峻的背景下，她正面临着迄今为止最艰难的连任竞选。特朗普时代的喧嚣损害了她一贯的独立形象，迫使她在基本盘和温和派选民之间做出艰难抉择——例如她投票确认布雷特·卡瓦诺担任最高法院大法官。如今，她的民主党对手将她贴上了“特朗普的帮凶”而非“反对特朗普的堡垒”的标签。

距离选举日还有一个月，一切都还未定论。

近期参议院民调显示，德克萨斯州没有明显的领先者；爱荷华州民主党的形势略好；佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州的竞选活动大多倾向于民主党。但选情往往在后期出现胶着。例如，2024年，布朗在9月下旬一度在俄亥俄州领先，但最终却输给了伯尼·莫雷诺，失去了参议院席位。还有谁会忘记《得梅因纪事报》/Mediacom爱荷华州民调显示，副总统卡马拉·哈里斯在几天后领先于特朗普，而特朗普却在该州以唯一真正重要的选举结果大胜她？

但民主党人信心十足，因为中期选举最大的影响因素仍然是现任总统的选情。特朗普的低支持率，以及美国民众对高生活成本、人工智能和伊朗战争的担忧，使得今年对共和党候选人来说格外艰难。

“当总统所在的政党控制国会时，总统就是公投的对象，但该政党及其候选人却成了目标，”北卡罗来纳州卡托巴学院政治与历史学教授迈克尔·比泽尔说道。

然而，政党在优势地位下犯错并非罕见。例如，2022年，特朗普支持像宾夕法尼亚州的梅赫迈特·奥兹和佐治亚州的赫歇尔·沃克这样容易犯错的候选人，帮助民主党在时任总统乔·拜登支持率低迷的情况下保住了参议院的控制权。这也是为什么党内一些人担心埃尔-赛义德和后来的替代候选人特洛伊·杰克逊在缅因州的前景的原因之一。

这也是众议院所担忧的问题。

一些民主党人担心，极右翼候选人在初选中获胜，可能会导致提名人选过于激进，无法被选民接受。与此同时，共和党警告称，“共产主义者”和“社会主义者”正在横行无忌。这些胜利大多发生在民主党传统票仓州。但在加利福尼亚州第22选区——特朗普在2024年险胜的关键战场——民主党人兰迪·维勒加斯击败了一位温和派初选对手，而这位对手正是民主党华盛顿领导层所青睐的。在缅因州，另一位进步派候选人马特·邓拉普也击败了一位建制派对手，赢得了在关键摇摆选区参选的资格。

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库珀或图雷克在 11 月的胜利可能会给民主党人提供重要的线索，帮助他们了解如何在 2024 年之前的这段时间里扩大其吸引力。在此期间，他们在移民、性别认同问题和通货膨胀问题上的政策疏远了一些温和派选民。

在 21 世纪，该党的文化宣传往往吸引了城市中的自由派人士和郊区受过大学教育的选民，但却疏远了曾经自然而然地转向民主党的农村和工人阶级选民，而这些选民后来为了特朗普而放弃了该党。

在南方某个州，库珀或许能为他们提供答案。

这位前州长并没有发起一场公开的党派民主党竞选。他将自己的参选定位为北卡罗来纳州向参议院输送“独立”声音的机会。他利用此次选举的关键议题——生活成本——作为连接两党选民的桥梁，开展“降低物价”巡回宣传活动，并提出“钱到手的月费太多了”之类的口号。库珀凭借多年公职经验赢得了温和派选民的信任。他给人的印象是沉稳低调，并回忆起曾在州议会与共和党人共事的经历，以此来争取那些厌倦了特朗普混乱局面的选民的支持。

民调显示，库珀的策略似乎奏效了，他明显领先于沃特利。比泽尔进行的民调证实了其他调查的结果，即库珀在独立选民中领先。比泽尔表示，这位前州长在农村地区也表现得更好，而共和党通常会在这些地区扩大优势。自2008年奥巴马以来，该州就再也没有投票支持过民主党总统候选人。

这种联盟之所以重要，是因为民调显示，虽然选民希望惩罚特朗普，但他们仍然对民主党抱有怀疑态度。这也是选举专家查理·库克认为中期选举并非出现“蓝色浪潮”，而是出现“红色暗流”的原因之一。

比泽尔表示，库珀的经验使他能够“认识到，在北卡罗来纳州……温和的中间选民可能会倒向任何一方。他知道如何既吸引本党的基本盘，又能吸引那些可能在投票时摇摆不定的温和中间选民。”

图雷克在爱荷华州也尝试了类似的策略。他效仿温和派民主党爱荷华州参议员汤姆·哈金的政治遗产。哈金曾在国会任职40年，代表着爱荷华州两次支持奥巴马，三次支持特朗普。图雷克强调了该州严峻的住房负担能力危机、医疗资源匮乏、癌症发病率居高不下以及他所谓的华盛顿“腐败”问题。但图雷克基本上避开了文化和社会议题，而这些议题恰恰是许多全国性民主党和进步派宣传的核心。他支持宪法第二修正案和强有力的边境政策。

“民主党的形象确实受到了损害，”图雷克在最近一期由乔恩·斯图尔特主持的《每周秀》节目中说道，他指的是自己作为爱荷华州议员的意识形态立场。“有些时候，我在一些问题上与温和派共和党人的观点比与最极端的左翼民主党人的观点更一致，”他说道。

这种立场或许有助于保护图雷克免受共和党关于民主党正向极左翼倾斜的指责。

如果这一信息在今年秋季获得成功，它或许能为该党提供一个超越中期选举的蓝图。