With a steel mill and campaign cash, Trump and GOP leaders launch an Iowa rescue mission

Bonnie Cash/UPI/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Republicans are on a rescue mission in Iowa, touting new plans for a $15 billion steel mill as President Donald Trump and the state’s GOP leaders rush to blunt the political impact of a battered economy and prevent the governor’s office, a Senate seat and three House seats from slipping into Democratic hands in November.

Gov. Kim Reynolds called the Republican-led state legislature into a special session set to begin Friday — days after Trump unveiled the proposed eastern Iowa steel mill in the Oval Office. Lawmakers are set to meet to amend the state’s Major Economic Growth Attraction program to pave the way for state incentives for the plant near the Mississippi River in Lee County.

Charlie Neibergall/Getty Images

Trump’s announcement came the same week the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP’s super PAC, announced it was spending another $20 million in Iowa to boost the Senate campaign of US Rep. Ashley Hinson, who polls show is locked in a tight race against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. The move brings GOP spending in Iowa to more than $100 million.

“For me, it’s always been about going out and earning every vote and running like I’m 10 points behind, which I don’t think I am,” Hinson told CNN on Thursday. She conceded that rising costs are taking a toll, adding: “We do need to bring prices down. We need to figure out how we provide relief to working families.” families

The battle Republicans face in Iowa — a state Trump won by 13 percentage points just two years ago — is a window into the party’s broader challenges across the Midwest, where Trump’s war with Iran has sent gas and diesel prices soaring and his trade battles have strained manufacturers’ budgets, increased household costs and limited farmers’ access to foreign markets.

Iowa-based conservative talk radio host Steve Deace sounded the alarm last week, taking to social media to warn Republicans that “that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006” — the year Democrats gained six Senate seats and 31 House seats to take majorities in both chambers. Deace called the war in Iran a “political albatross.”

“We are risking what’s left of the Trump presidency on this, because if Democrats take control the legislative branch the Trump domestic agenda we all voted for will largely cease,” he said.

Deace urged Republicans to turn attention toward unpopular Democratic positions, while also articulating what victory in Iran would look like.

“The political environment is constantly shifting,” said Johnson County GOP Chairwoman Teresa Bumgartner. “At this point, we have to be focused on the elements that we can control — which is getting our message out.”

Nathan Howard/Reuters

The fallout from the steel plant announcement — and the president’s pledge to visit Iowa in the closing month of the campaign to tout the project — has injected a wild card into the final weeks of the midterm election. A promise of creating 1,750 permanent jobs, along with 6,000 temporary construction jobs, comes with a wave of suspicion from Republicans and Democrats alike.

“It sounds too good to be true, and it just might be,” a top Republican official in Iowa told CNN, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid agitating the Trump administration.

From talk radio to editorial pages of the state’s newspapers, praise and skepticism of the project has been dominating the political conversation this week in Iowa.

The announcement was met with comparisons to FoxConn, the Taiwanese electronic giant that fell far short of delivering on plans to spend $10 billion on a Wisconsin plant that would employ 13,000 — a development Trump in 2017 hailed as part of a rebirth of American manufacturing.

“I’m from Wisconsin, home of ‘FoxConn.’ Good luck with your steel mill,” Jason Maloney of Washburn, Wisconsin, wrote in a letter to the editor in the Des Moines Register. “Is a steel mill really coming to landlocked Iowa? People of Iowa, prepare to be grifted.”

Asked whether the project could become an Iowa version of FoxConn, Hinson told CNN: “I don’t think so. I trust our governor who has been working on this deal for months to make sure that we get secure that investment here in Iowa.”

While Democrats said they were supportive of the economic development potential, they acknowledged hearing a wave of concern from skeptical Iowans about whether the project was an election-year gambit or something that would actually come to fruition.

Rob Sand, the state auditor who is the Democratic candidate for governor, said he welcomed the creation of jobs, but was reserving judgment until learning more details.

“I want to make sure this is a real opportunity,” Sand, who is facing GOP businessman and farmer Zach Lahn in the race to replace Reynolds, told reporters in Des Moines, “but also at the end of the day Iowa is getting served by it and not getting fleeced.”

Scott Olson/Getty Images

Brad Moudry, who owns a commercial electric business in northern Iowa, said he hoped Iowa lawmakers did their homework on the proposed plant, but said it “sounded good” and could have a trickle-down effect into the broader economy.

“It’s going to take a lot of infrastructure. If they’re going to create 1,600 jobs, is there enough housing for all those people?” said Moudry, a Trump supporter who has been following news of the announcement this week. “It’s going to be a win-win no matter what, but people have to give it a little time.”

The project now is squarely intertwined with the fight for control of Congress, which also runs directly through Iowa. The fiercely-competitive Senate race, along with three House seats, could play a pivotal role in whether Republicans maintain their narrow majorities in Washington.

Just days after Hinson became the latest Republican seeking to distance herself from Trump by calling for an “immediate and successful end to the war in Iran,” she was reeled back in. Standing in the Oval Office a few feet from the president, Hinson praised the steel project, telling the president: “I appreciate your agenda.”

Yet as Hinson campaigned in northeastern Iowa on Thursday, she renewed her call for an end to the Iran war “to provide immediate relief to Iowa families right now,” but she did not mention the steel project. Only when a reporter in Waterloo asked about the project did she briefly mention it, calling the plant “an amazing opportunity for our state.”

Hinson now faces a delicate dance – replicated by many Republicans across the country – of trying to reap the benefits of Trump by motivating his supporters without being carried away by a political undertow of those exhausted by his second term.

Turek is among the Iowa lawmakers who will vote on the proposed steel mill Friday. He said he looked forward to learning more details, saying: “We need jobs more than ever.” But he signaled his intent to keep trying to tie his opponent to policies of the Trump administration.

“Gas and diesel prices have risen more here than almost any other state in the country. We are all paying the price,” Turek said in a new ad released Wednesday. “Ashley Hinson has voted over and over for policies that have jacked up prices, while she gets richer and richer.”

For Iowa Democrats, the last election cycle worth truly celebrating came in 2018 — two years before Caitlin Clark arrived on campus in Iowa City.

That year, the midterm elections of Trump’s first term, Democrats won three US House seats in Iowa — ousting incumbent Republicans in two of them — but narrowly lost the governor’s race to Reynolds.

Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Iowa since 2008, when former President Barack Obama was on the ballot, the first of two times Obama won the state in a general election.

Not since 1968 has Iowa seen a wide-open race for governor and Senate at the same time, which is one of the factors driving the state’s fiercely competitive election cycle. The decision by two of the state’s top Republicans, Sen. Joni Ernst, and Reynolds, a two-term governor, not to seek third terms has created a rare opening for Democrats.

Yet Democrats still face challenges of their own, including 180,000 fewer registered voters than Republicans.

September voter registration data from the Iowa secretary of state shows that 711,990 voters are registered with the Republican Party, with 529,275 voters registered as Democrats and 564,581 voters not affiliated with either major political party. Independents remain the most important wild card.

Early voting data is offering Iowa Democrats reason for optimism. Democrats have made 67% of ballot requests, up from 54% at this point in 2024.

April Melton, the chairwoman of the Black Hawk County GOP, said she thinks Republicans will “buck history” and deliver Trump a strong midterm performance — in part, she said, because she believes the president deserves credit for decisively taking action against Iran without putting American troops on the ground there.

“All we’re doing is paying a little extra in gas,” she said.

But Melton said she sees the midterms much like recent Iowa-versus-Iowa State college football games: razor-tight and likely to be won in the final minutes.

“Fight like you’re losing, always,” Melton said.

邦妮·卡什/UPI/彭博社/盖蒂图片社

共和党人在爱荷华州展开救援行动，大力宣传一项价值 150 亿美元的钢铁厂新计划。与此同时，唐纳德·特朗普总统和该州的共和党领导人正加紧努力，以减轻经济衰退带来的政治影响，并防止州长职位、一个参议院席位和三个众议院席位在 11 月落入民主党手中。

在特朗普总统于椭圆形办公室公布拟建爱荷华州东部钢铁厂的计划几天后，州长金·雷诺兹召集由共和党控制的州议会于周五召开特别会议。议员们将开会修改该州的“重大经济增长吸引计划”，以便为位于李县密西西比河附近的这家钢铁厂提供州政府激励措施。

查理·尼伯格尔/盖蒂图片社

就在特朗普宣布这一消息的同一周，共和党超级政治行动委员会“参议院领导基金”宣布将在爱荷华州追加2000万美元，以支持美国众议员阿什利·欣森的参议院竞选。民调显示，欣森与民主党州众议员乔什·图雷克的选情胶着。此举使共和党在爱荷华州的竞选支出超过1亿美元。

“对我来说，一直以来都是全力以赴争取每一张选票，就像我落后10个百分点一样全力以赴，虽然我不认为我真的落后10个百分点，”欣森周四告诉CNN。她承认物价上涨正在造成影响，并补充说：“我们确实需要降低物价。我们需要想办法为工薪家庭提供帮助。”

共和党在爱荷华州面临的这场战斗——两年前特朗普曾以 13 个百分点的优势赢得该州——反映了该党在整个中西部地区面临的更广泛挑战。在中西部地区，特朗普与伊朗的战争导致汽油和柴油价格飙升，而他的贸易战则使制造商的预算捉襟见肘，增加了家庭成本，并限制了农民进入国外市场。

上周，爱荷华州保守派电台主持人史蒂夫·迪斯在社交媒体上发出警告，称共和党人“这次中期选举的形势可能比2006年还要糟糕”——2006年，民主党在参议院赢得了6个席位，在众议院赢得了31个席位，从而在参众两院都获得了多数席位。迪斯称伊朗战争是“政治包袱”。

他说：“我们正在拿特朗普总统任期的剩余部分冒险，因为如果民主党人控制了立法部门，我们投票支持的特朗普国内议程将基本停止。”

迪斯敦促共和党人将注意力转向不受欢迎的民主党立场，同时阐明在伊朗取得胜利的景象。

约翰逊县共和党主席特蕾莎·邦加特纳表示：“政治环境瞬息万变。目前，我们必须专注于我们能够掌控的因素——那就是把我们的信息传递出去。”

内森·霍华德/路透社

钢铁厂项目宣布后引发的连锁反应——以及总统承诺在竞选最后一个月访问爱荷华州宣传该项目——给中期选举的最后几周增添了变数。该项目承诺创造1750个永久性就业岗位和6000个临时建筑岗位，但这却招致了共和党人和民主党人共同的质疑。

“这听起来好得令人难以置信，而且很可能就是假的，”爱荷华州一位不愿透露姓名的爱荷华州共和党高级官员告诉 CNN，以免激怒特朗普政府。

从广播谈话节目到州内报纸的社论版面，本周爱荷华州的政治讨论主要围绕着对该项目表示赞扬和质疑。

该消息一出，人们便将其与台湾电子巨头富士康进行了比较。富士康曾计划投资 100 亿美元在威斯康星州建厂，雇用 13000 名员工，但最终未能兑现承诺——特朗普在 2017 年曾将此举誉为美国制造业复兴的一部分。

“我来自威斯康星州，富士康的故乡。祝你们的钢铁厂好运，”来自威斯康星州沃什伯恩的杰森·马洛尼在给《得梅因纪事报》编辑的信中写道。“钢铁厂真的要落户内陆州爱荷华州吗？爱荷华州的人们，准备好被宰吧。”

当被问及该项目是否会成为爱荷华州版的富士康时，欣森告诉CNN：“我不这么认为。我相信我们的州长，他几个月来一直在努力促成这笔交易，以确保我们在爱荷华州获得这项投资。”

虽然民主党人表示支持该项目的经济发展潜力，但他们也承认，持怀疑态度的爱荷华州民众纷纷表达了担忧，他们想知道该项目是选举年的噱头，还是真的能够实现。

民主党州长候选人、州审计长罗布·桑德表示，他欢迎创造就业机会，但在了解更多细节之前，他不会妄下结论。

“我想确保这是一个真正的机会，”桑德在得梅因告诉记者，他正在与共和党商人兼农民扎克·拉恩竞选接替雷诺兹的席位，“但最终爱荷华州也能从中受益，而不是被宰割。”

Scott Olson/Getty Images

在爱荷华州北部拥有一家商业电力公司的布拉德·穆德里表示，他希望爱荷华州的立法者们对拟建的工厂做了充分的调查研究，但他表示，该工厂“听起来不错”，可能会对更广泛的经济产生涓滴效应。

“这需要大量的基建工程。如果他们要创造1600个就业岗位，住房够用吗？”穆德里说道。他是一位特朗普的支持者，本周一直在关注这项公告的新闻。“无论如何，这都将是双赢的局面，但人们需要给它一些时间。”

如今，该项目与争夺国会控制权的斗争紧密相连，而这场斗争也直接贯穿爱荷华州。竞争异常激烈的参议院席位之争，以及三个众议院席位的争夺，可能对共和党能否保住其在华盛顿的微弱多数席位起到关键作用。

就在欣森呼吁“立即成功结束伊朗战争”，成为最新一位试图与特朗普划清界限的共和党人几天后，她又被拉了回来。在椭圆形办公室里，距离总统几英尺远的地方，欣森赞扬了钢铁项目，并对总统说：“我赞赏您的计划。”

然而，周四，欣森在爱荷华州东北部竞选时，再次呼吁结束伊朗战争，“以便立即为爱荷华州的家庭提供援助”，但她只字未提钢铁项目。直到滑铁卢的一位记者问及该项目时，她才简要提及，称该工厂“对我们州来说是一个绝佳的机会”。

欣森现在面临着一场微妙的博弈——全国许多共和党人都在效仿——既要努力从特朗普身上汲取好处，激励他的支持者，又不能被那些对他的第二个任期感到厌倦的人的政治暗流所裹挟。

图雷克是将于周五就拟建钢铁厂项目进行投票的爱荷华州议员之一。他表示期待了解更多细节，并说道：“我们比以往任何时候都更需要就业机会。”但他同时暗示，他将继续努力把对手与特朗普政府的政策联系起来。

“这里的汽油和柴油价格涨幅几乎超过了全国其他任何一个州。我们都在为此付出代价，”图雷克在周三发布的一则新广告中说道。“阿什利·辛森一再投票支持推高物价的政策，而她自己却越来越富有。”

对于爱荷华州的民主党人来说，上一次真正值得庆祝的选举周期是 2018 年——那是凯特琳·克拉克来到爱荷华城校园的两年前。

那一年，在特朗普第一任期的中期选举中，民主党在爱荷华州赢得了三个美国众议院席位——其中两个席位击败了现任共和党人——但在州长竞选中以微弱劣势输给了雷诺兹。

自 2008 年以来，民主党人就再也没有在爱荷华州赢得过参议院选举。那一年，前总统巴拉克·奥巴马参加了选举，这是奥巴马两次在普选中赢得该州的第一次。

自1968年以来，爱荷华州从未同时出现过州长和参议员席位竞争异常激烈的局面，这也是该州选举竞争异常激烈的原因之一。两位州内共和党重量级人物——参议员乔尼·恩斯特和连任两届的州长雷诺兹——决定不再寻求第三个任期，这为民主党人创造了一个难得的机会。

然而，民主党人自身也面临着挑战，包括注册选民比共和党人少 18 万。

爱荷华州州务卿办公室9月份的选民登记数据显示，共和党选民登记人数为711,990人，民主党选民登记人数为529,275人，另有564,581名选民未加入任何主要政党。独立选民仍然是最大的变数。

提前投票数据显示，爱荷华州民主党人有理由感到乐观。民主党人已提出67%的选票申请，高于2024年同期的54%。

黑鹰县共和党主席艾普丽尔·梅尔顿表示，她认为共和党人将“打破历史”，让特朗普在中期选举中取得强劲表现——部分原因是，她认为总统应该因在没有向伊朗派遣美军的情况下果断采取行动而受到赞扬。

“我们只不过是多花一点油钱而已，”她说。

但梅尔顿表示，她认为中期选举很像最近爱荷华大学对阵爱荷华州立大学的大学橄榄球比赛：比分非常接近，很可能在最后几分钟才能决出胜负。

“永远要像必败一样战斗，”梅尔顿说。