Ethiopia, Eritrea break ties: Does the conflict risk becoming regional war?

Analysts warn unrest is likely to spill into neighbouring states and could further destabilise war-torn Sudan.

A view of Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa. An explosion was reported at the Defence Ministry in the city early on Thursday [Brian Inganga/AP Photo]

Eritrea has cut off diplomatic relations with neighbouring Ethiopia, escalating a long-simmering conflict between the two states rooted in territorial disputes and mutual accusations of interference.

The move comes as fighting flares in northern Ethiopia between Ethiopian federal troops and an opposition alliance that Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea of backing.

list 1 of 3 Ethiopia’s army promises restraint amid fears of new civil war

list 2 of 3 Ethiopia blames regional rivals as risk of conflict spillover rises

list 3 of 3 Blasts heard in Addis Ababa as Ethiopia conflict widens in the north

The clashes are the most severe in Ethiopia since its 2020-2022 civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of people.

But this time, the ripple effects could go further, potentially fuelling broader unrest in a region already plagued by numerous interrelated conflicts, analysts warn.

Here’s what we know about the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict, the latest fighting in northern Ethiopia and what it could mean for the region at large:

Why did Eritrea break off ties with Ethiopia?

Eritrea announced it was severing ties with Ethiopia on Thursday, after Addis Ababa announced it would close its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats.

In a statement, Eritrea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Ethiopia’s actions had left it with “no option but to reciprocate in kind and sever all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia”.

The Eritrean ministry accused Ethiopia of pursuing a years-long “agenda of incessant hostility”, including by infringing on its coastal areas and arming fighters opposed to Ethiopia’s government.

Ethiopia has likewise accused Eritrea of backing armed groups opposed to its government. Both sides have rejected the other’s accusations.

The diplomatic breakdown follows months of worsening relations, driven largely by disputes over landlocked Ethiopia’s push for access to the Red Sea and allegations that Eritrea is backing the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which leads the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a rebel alliance fighting for control of parts of northern Ethiopia.

Have Ethiopia’s ties with Egypt and Sudan been hit, too?

Yes. Ethiopia accuses Egypt and Sudan of joining Eritrea in backing Tigrayan rebel forces, worsening already strained ties with both countries.

Ethiopia has long been at odds with Egypt over the status of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project , which Cairo views as a risk to its water security and share of the Nile.

Ethiopia and Egypt have also expelled diplomats. Cairo ordered an Ethiopian diplomat to leave the country on Thursday, after Addis Ababa earlier kicked out an Egyptian diplomat, Egyptian state-linked media reported.

Egyptian state-linked broadcaster Al-Qahera News quoted an Egyptian official as calling Ethiopia’s move to expel the Egyptian diplomat as “regrettable and unjustified” and saying that Cairo responded in line with “the principle of reciprocity”.

The latest conflict also has implications for Sudan, whose military-backed government accuses Ethiopia of backing rebel forces it is fighting in its own civil conflict . Ethiopia rejects those allegations.

“The conflicts in Ethiopia and Sudan have become more interconnected, with the Ethiopian government and Sudanese Armed Forces accusing each other of harbouring and equipping respective opposition forces from inside their own borders,” Ahmed Soliman, senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank’s Africa programme, told Al Jazeera. “Egypt has also been drawn into the escalation with its long-running enmity with Ethiopia over the Nile.”

What is happening in northern Ethiopia?

Tigrayan-led rebel forces have engaged in clashes with Ethiopian government-backed forces in the country’s north since last week. Fighting is concentrated in three regions: Tigray, Amhara and Afar.

Al Jazeera’s bureau chief in Ethiopia, Mohammed Taha Tawakel, reported that forces loyal to the federal government have made significant gains in the Tigray region, taking control of several towns and closing in on the regional capital, Mekelle.

Further east in Afar, a pro-government armed group claimed on Thursday to have recaptured the town of Erebti, which rebel forces had taken control of earlier in the week. The pro-government group thanked the Ethiopian military for its “magnificent air support” and said it would pursue further advances.

Despite the pro-government advances, Tawakel reported that rebel forces still maintain what he described as a “strong rear link with Eritrea” along the countries’ border.

He also reported growing fears that fighting could move into major urban centres of Tigray, such as Adwa, Axum, Shire and Mekelle. Some people have already begun fleeing to Amhara and Afar, he added.

Outside northern Ethiopia, the conflict appeared to spill into the capital, Addis Ababa, for the first time early on Thursday, as an explosion was reported at the Ministry of Defence.

AFP quoted a diplomatic source as saying small drones were the most probable cause of the blast.

While Ethiopia’s army has a much larger arsenal of drones, rebel forces have previously used them to target airbases and airports in various parts of the country, reported conflict monitor ACLED.

What are the roots of the Ethiopia-Eritrea dispute?

Ties between the neighbours have been historically fragile. In 1962, Ethiopia annexed Eritrea. An armed independence struggle, led by Eritrea’s current President Isaias Afwerki, secured independence in 1993. The countries fought another border war from 1998 to 2000.

When Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, he moved to end the tensions and normalise diplomatic relations with Eritrea. During Ethiopia’s last civil war in 2020-2022, Eritrea even backed Ethiopia’s government against the TPLF.

But Abiy’s ambitions to seek direct sea access for landlocked Ethiopia have contributed to recent tensions, say analysts. Abiy has repeated that Ethiopia has a right to sea access, words that officials in Asmara take as a declaration of territorial conflict with Eritrea.

Could the current conflict spread in the region?

Many analysts fear it could.

Laura Hammond, professor in development studies at SOAS University of London, told Al Jazeera this scenario is already under way.

“The risks that conflict will spread to other countries, or that neighbours in the region will be brought into the present conflict are already playing out in terms of Eritrea’s support for the TPLF and the Alliance for Survival,” said Hammond.

“There is a strong possibility that Eritrea will become more involved in the conflict on the ground inside Tigray if it continues much longer,” she continued. “There is also a risk that the conflict could inflame relations with and inside Sudan.”

Martin Plaut, an analyst specialising in the Horn of Africa, also said there was a “real danger” of the conflict spreading.

“The situation is extremely tense and it would only require a spark to ignite a conflagration that could engulf [Ethiopia and Eritrea], as well as neighbouring Sudan,” he told Al Jazeera.

分析人士警告称，动乱可能会蔓延到邻国，并可能进一步破坏饱受战争蹂躏的苏丹的稳定。

埃塞俄比亚首都亚的斯亚贝巴的景象。据报道，周四清晨，该市国防部发生爆炸。[布莱恩·英甘加/美联社照片]

厄立特里亚切断了与邻国埃塞俄比亚的外交关系，加剧了两国之间由领土争端和相互指责干涉内政而长期存在的冲突。

此举正值埃塞俄比亚北部爆发冲突之际，冲突双方是埃塞俄比亚联邦军队和反对派联盟，亚的斯亚贝巴指责厄立特里亚支持该联盟。

列表 1/3：埃塞俄比亚军队承诺在新内战担忧中保持克制

（共3条）埃塞俄比亚指责地区竞争对手，冲突蔓延风险上升（第2条）

埃塞俄比亚北部冲突扩大，亚的斯亚贝巴发生3起爆炸事件（列表3/3）

这是自2020年至2022年造成数十万人死亡的埃塞俄比亚内战以来，该国发生的最严重的冲突。

但分析人士警告说，这一次，连锁反应可能会更加严重，有可能加剧该地区本已饱受众多相互关联的冲突困扰的更大范围的动荡。

以下是我们对埃塞俄比亚-厄立特里亚冲突、埃塞俄比亚北部最新战事及其对整个地区可能产生的影响的了解：

厄立特里亚为何与埃塞俄比亚断绝外交关系？

周四，厄立特里亚宣布与埃塞俄比亚断绝外交关系。此前，亚的斯亚贝巴宣布将关闭其驻阿斯马拉大使馆，并驱逐 10 名厄立特里亚外交官。

厄立特里亚外交部在一份声明中表示，埃塞俄比亚的行为使其“别无选择，只能以牙还牙，断绝与埃塞俄比亚的一切外交关系”。

厄立特里亚外交部指责埃塞俄比亚多年来奉行“持续敌对议程”，包括侵犯其沿海地区和武装反对埃塞俄比亚政府的武装分子。

埃塞俄比亚同样指责厄立特里亚支持反对其政府的武装团体。双方均否认了对方的指控。

此次外交破裂是在两国关系数月恶化之后发生的，主要原因是内陆国家埃塞俄比亚力求获得红海出海口，以及厄立特里亚被指控支持反叛组织提格雷人民解放阵线（提人阵），该阵线领导着埃塞俄比亚人民生存力量联盟，这是一个为争夺埃塞俄比亚北部部分地区的控制权而战的反叛联盟。

埃塞俄比亚与埃及和苏丹的关系是否也受到了影响？

是的。埃塞俄比亚指责埃及和苏丹与厄立特里亚联手支持提格雷叛军，这加剧了埃塞俄比亚与两国本已紧张的关系。

埃塞俄比亚与埃及长期以来在埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝（GERD）项目的地位问题上存在分歧，开罗方面认为该项目对其水资源安全和尼罗河水份额构成威胁。

埃塞俄比亚和埃及也驱逐了外交官。据埃及官方媒体报道，开罗周四下令一名埃塞俄比亚外交官离境，此前亚的斯亚贝巴已驱逐了一名埃及外交官。

埃及官方广播公司Al-Qahera News援引一位埃及官员的话说，埃塞俄比亚驱逐埃及外交官的举动“令人遗憾且毫无道理”，并表示开罗的回应符合“对等原则”。

这场最新的冲突也对苏丹产生了影响。苏丹军方支持的政府指责埃塞俄比亚支持其在内战中正在打击的叛军。埃塞俄比亚否认了这些指控。

“埃塞俄比亚和苏丹的冲突日益交织，埃塞俄比亚政府和苏丹武装部队互相指责对方窝藏并武装各自境内的反对派武装，”查塔姆研究所非洲项目高级研究员艾哈迈德·索利曼告诉半岛电视台。“埃及也因与埃塞俄比亚长期存在的尼罗河争端而被卷入冲突升级之中。”

埃塞俄比亚北部发生了什么？

自上周以来，提格雷族领导的叛军与埃塞俄比亚政府支持的部队在该国北部发生冲突。战斗主要集中在三个地区：提格雷州、阿姆哈拉州和阿法尔州。

半岛电视台驻埃塞俄比亚分社社长穆罕默德·塔哈·塔瓦基勒报道称，效忠联邦政府的部队在提格雷地区取得了重大进展，控制了几个城镇，并逼近地区首府默克莱。

在更东部的阿法尔地区，一个亲政府武装组织周四声称已重新夺回埃雷布提镇，该镇此前被反叛武装于本周早些时候控制。该亲政府组织感谢埃塞俄比亚军方提供的“卓越的空中支援”，并表示将继续推进。

尽管亲政府方面取得了进展，但塔瓦基勒报告称，叛军仍然保持着他所说的“与厄立特里亚在两国边境的强大后方联系”。

他还报告说，人们越来越担心战火会蔓延到提格雷州的主要城市中心，例如阿杜瓦、阿克苏姆、希雷和默克莱。他补充说，一些人已经开始逃往阿姆哈拉州和阿法尔州。

周四清晨，冲突似乎首次蔓延至埃塞俄比亚北部以外的首都亚的斯亚贝巴，国防部发生爆炸。

法新社援引一位外交消息人士的话说，小型无人机很可能是造成爆炸的原因。

据冲突监测机构 ACLED 报道，虽然埃塞俄比亚军队拥有数量庞大的无人机，但叛军此前曾利用无人机袭击该国各地的空军基地和机场。

埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚争端的根源是什么？

两国关系历来脆弱。1962年，埃塞俄比亚吞并了厄立特里亚。在厄立特里亚现任总统伊萨亚斯·阿费沃基的领导下，厄立特里亚于1993年通过武装独立斗争获得独立。两国在1998年至2000年间再次爆发边境战争。

2018年，埃塞俄比亚总理阿比·艾哈迈德上台后，着手结束与厄立特里亚的紧张关系，并实现两国外交关系正常化。在2020年至2022年埃塞俄比亚内战期间，厄立特里亚甚至支持埃塞俄比亚政府对抗提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）。

分析人士指出，阿比寻求为内陆国埃塞俄比亚直接出海口的雄心壮志加剧了近期的紧张局势。阿比曾多次重申埃塞俄比亚拥有出海权，而阿斯马拉官员则将此视为与厄立特里亚发生领土争端的宣言。

目前的冲突会蔓延到该地区吗？

许多分析人士担心这种情况可能会发生。

伦敦大学亚非学院发展研究教授劳拉·哈蒙德告诉半岛电视台，这种情况已经开始了。

哈蒙德说：“冲突蔓延到其他国家，或者该地区的邻国被卷入当前冲突的风险，已经在厄立特里亚支持提格雷人民解放阵线和生存联盟方面显现出来。”

她继续说道：“如果提格雷地区的冲突持续下去，厄立特里亚很有可能会更深入地卷入其中。此外，这场冲突还有可能激化苏丹内部及与苏丹之间的关系。”

专门研究非洲之角问题的分析师马丁·普劳特也表示，冲突蔓延存在“真正的危险”。

“局势极其紧张，只需要一点火星就能点燃一场大火，这场大火可能会吞噬埃塞俄比亚、厄立特里亚以及邻国苏丹，”他告诉半岛电视台。