Russia tries to freeze Ukraine as it suffers record casualties and retreats

Moscow has suffered further losses of occupied territory, but is using new drones to beat Ukraine’s defences ahead of winter.

A man runs in front of a hospital damaged after a Russian drone strike in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on September 28, 2026 [Dan Bashakov/ AP Photo]

Russia suffered its highest losses of 2026 in September, when 46,230 of its soldiers were killed or wounded, according to the Ukrainian military .

The new record comes after Russian casualties of about 40,000 a month since June, and is close to the goal Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set in January of 50,000 Russian casualties a month. Russia reportedly lost 2,090 troops on September 28 – its highest 24-hour casualty rate of the war.

Al Jazeera cannot verify casualty claims from either side. Ukraine says it has video of each casualty, as more than 90 percent of them are caused by first-person view (FPV) drones.

But despite setbacks, Russia has been trying to seize the remaining areas of Ukraine’s eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk that it doesn’t control — which is where casualties have been heaviest.

Ukraine’s Third Army Corps has inflicted particularly heavy losses in the area around Lyman, where the third phase of a counteroffensive called Operation Vivaldi has reclaimed 176sq km (68sq miles) of territory in recent weeks.

Corps commander Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky said it succeeded by feigning an attack from the west, and “forced it [the Russian army] to senselessly burn through its reserves in counterattacks precisely in that direction”. Then it attacked from the north.

Among its tactics was the use of remotely operated Russian armoured personnel carriers filled with explosives that smashed into Russian defences.

A Ukrainian commander on the Lyman front described how Vivaldi’s first phase eliminated a vanguard of Russian soldiers. Ukrainian drone operators have also been busy disrupting Russian ammunition and fuel supplies, starving the front.

Russia denied the Ukrainian counteroffensive’s gains, posting videos as purported evidence .

Russia has frequently claimed to hold positions and gain territory. But assessments by the Institute for the Study of War and DeepState, organisations that track territorial gains using open source, geolocated footage, rarely reflect Russian claims on their maps.

The ISW has estimated Russia’s net gains this year at 148sq km (57sq miles), nowhere near the 5,300sq km that Russia claims.

Still, Russia pounded Ukraine’s cities during the past week, striking energy infrastructure but also residential buildings, kindergartens, schools, office buildings and other nonmilitary targets.

Several people were killed on September 28, when a drone destroyed part of the National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv.

Kyiv experienced power outages on September 30, when Russian drones struck a thermal power plant in the Kyiv region. At least five people were killed across the country.

“Since the summer, there has not been a single day when the enemy has not attacked energy infrastructure. However, such a massive and combined attack has not occurred since the end of the last heating season,” wrote Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi on social media.

Zelenskyy has warned for weeks that Russia intends to strike Ukraine’s energy sector hard to cause suffering this winter.

On September 30, Russia also tested a drone with a cumulative cutting warhead “specifically designed to destroy high-voltage pylons,” said Ukraine’s defence ministry electronics adviser Serhii Beskrestnov . “I believe the enemy’s plan is to attack important high-voltage power lines.”

Russia has also targeted data centres during September, in an apparent effort to disrupt connectivity and digital commerce.

Ukraine has been suffering from a shortage of interceptors with which to stop ballistic missiles, and several got through on September 30, Zelenskyy said. Ukraine believes it can manufacture interceptors faster and more cheaply than its allies if the technology is shared.

Zelenskyy had persuaded US President Donald Trump to allow Ukraine to manufacture interceptors for the Patriot system under licence at the NATO summit last July, but Trump later retracted the offer.

Jet-powered drones are a recent challenge, too. Ukraine had mastered the art of shooting down propeller-powered ones, eliminating well over 90 percent. During the week ending October 1, however, they downed only 81 percent of the 1,933 long-range aerial drones Russia launched because many of them were jet-powered.

“Ukraine’s interception rate for jet-powered “shaheds” is now 55 percent,” Zelenskyy wrote.

Worse may be to come. Beskrestnov said Russia was working on a system of radio beacons to better guide drones.

“This system will allow them to navigate deep within our territory, at a distance of up to 100 km. This essentially means the ability to accurately attack a vast portion of Ukraine,” he wrote.

Zelenskyy said Russia planned to spend $12bn on jet-powered drones and loitering munitions next year.

Ukraine strikes back

Ukraine, too, has continued deep strikes against Russian refineries to starve its war machine of fuel and disrupt its economy.

Ukrainian drones struck the Perm and Novoshakhtinsk refineries on September 25, and the Ilsky refinery the following day. Two days later, they struck four oil deposits in the Krasnodar Krai region.

Ukraine also struck defence industries. On September 25, it struck the NPP Zavod Iskra factory , which makes electronic components for the Kh-59 cruise missiles Russia flies into Ukraine, and the Pantsir-S air defence system. It also struck the Efremovsky Synthetic Rubber Plant, which makes solid rocket fuel for the Iskander-M ballistic missile.

The next day, Ukraine hit the foundry and five buildings of the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, which makes optics for artillery, missile and antitank weapons.

Rescue workers put out a fire at the National Academy of Sciences building following a Russian drone strike in the centre of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday, September 28, 2026 [Dan Bashakov/ AP Photo]

Both Russia and Ukraine have outspent their defence budgets for the year.

Ukraine said it was looking for an additional $27bn, in meetings with the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund.

“Part of these resources is needed immediately for advance payments for supplies that are expected to arrive in the first quarter of 2027,” said Prime Minister Koretskyi .

Some of the money would come “by reallocating funds”, he said, but “we are also counting on support from the EU”.

It was a similar story in Russia, which has spent 30 percent more on its war in the first half of the year than the same period last year, according to the Ukraine Foreign Intelligence Service .

Reuters cited leaked Russian government documents indicating that Russia plans to raise its defence spending by another 27 percent next year. It put the estimated budget at $204bn for 2027.

Moscow planned to pay for the increase through extra borrowing and budget cuts to nonmilitary expenditures.

莫斯科在占领区遭受了进一步的损失，但正在利用新型无人机在冬季来临前突破乌克兰的防御。

2026年9月28日，一名男子跑过乌克兰基辅市中心一家被俄罗斯无人机袭击后受损的医院。[丹·巴沙科夫/美联社照片]

据乌克兰军方称，俄罗斯在2026年9月遭受了最大的伤亡，当时有46230名士兵阵亡或受伤。

这一新纪录是在俄军自6月以来每月伤亡约4万人之后出现的，并且接近乌克兰总统泽连斯基1月份设定的每月5万人伤亡的目标。据报道，俄军9月28日损失了2090名士兵，这是战争爆发以来俄军单日伤亡人数最高的一天。

半岛电视台无法核实双方的伤亡说法。乌克兰方面表示，他们掌握了每起伤亡事件的视频，因为超过90%的伤亡是由第一人称视角（FPV）无人机造成的。

尽管遭遇挫折，俄罗斯仍在试图夺取其尚未控制的乌克兰东部卢甘斯克和顿涅茨克地区的剩余领土——而这些地区也是伤亡最惨重的地方。

乌克兰第三军在莱曼附近地区给敌军造成了特别惨重的损失。在最近几周，代号为“维瓦尔第行动”的反攻第三阶段已经收复了176平方公里（68平方英里）的领土。

军长安德烈·比列茨基准将表示，他们之所以能够成功，是因为他们佯装从西面进攻，“迫使俄军在那个方向的反击中白白消耗了大量预备队”。然后，他们从北面发起进攻。

其战术之一是使用装满炸药的遥控俄罗斯装甲运兵车，冲击俄罗斯防御工事。

莱曼前线的一名乌克兰指挥官描述了维瓦尔第行动第一阶段如何消灭了俄军的一支先锋部队。乌克兰无人机操作员还忙于破坏俄军的弹药和燃料供应，使前线陷入物资匮乏的困境。

俄罗斯否认乌克兰反攻取得的战果，并发布视频作为所谓的证据。

俄罗斯经常声称占领阵地并扩张领土。但战争研究所和“深层国家”（DeepState）等利用开源地理定位影像追踪领土扩张的组织进行的评估显示，俄罗斯的领土主张很少反映在其地图上。

国际空间研究所估计，俄罗斯今年的净增面积为 148 平方公里（57 平方英里），远低于俄罗斯声称的 5300 平方公里。

尽管如此，俄罗斯在过去一周仍然猛烈抨击了乌克兰的城市，不仅打击了能源基础设施，还袭击了居民楼、幼儿园、学校、办公楼和其他非军事目标。

9月28日，一架无人机摧毁了基辅国家科学院的一部分，造成多人死亡。

9月30日，俄罗斯无人机袭击了基辅地区的一座火力发电厂，导致基辅市发生停电。全国至少有5人丧生。

“自夏季以来，敌人几乎每天都在攻击能源基础设施。然而，自上一个供暖季结束以来，还没有发生过如此大规模的联合攻击，”总理谢尔盖·科列茨基在社交媒体上写道。

泽连斯基数周以来一直警告说，俄罗斯打算重创乌克兰能源部门，使乌克兰在今年冬天遭受苦难。

乌克兰国防部电子顾问谢尔盖·别斯克列斯特诺夫表示，9月30日，俄罗斯还测试了一架配备累积切割弹头的无人机，“该弹头是专门设计用于摧毁高压输电塔的”。“我认为敌人的计划是攻击重要的高压输电线路。”

俄罗斯在9月份也曾以数据中心为攻击目标，显然是为了破坏网络连接和数字商务。

泽连斯基表示，乌克兰一直面临拦截弹道导弹数量不足的问题，9月30日有数枚导弹突破了拦截线。乌克兰相信，如果能够共享技术，它制造拦截导弹的速度和成本将比盟友更高。

泽连斯基曾在去年7月的北约峰会上说服美国总统唐纳德·特朗普允许乌克兰获得许可生产爱国者导弹系统的拦截器，但特朗普后来撤回了这一提议。

喷气式无人机也是近期的一大挑战。乌克兰此前已掌握了击落螺旋桨式无人机的技巧，击落率超过90%。然而，在截至10月1日的一周内，由于俄罗斯出动的1933架远程无人机中有很多是喷气式无人机，乌克兰仅击落了其中的81%。

泽连斯基写道：“乌克兰对喷气式飞机的拦截率目前为 55%。”

情况可能还会更糟。别斯克列斯特诺夫表示，俄罗斯正在研发一套无线电信标系统，以更好地引导无人机。

他写道：“这套系统将使他们能够深入我方领土，最远可达100公里。这实际上意味着他们有能力精确攻击乌克兰的大片地区。”

泽连斯基表示，俄罗斯计划明年花费 120 亿美元用于喷气式无人机和巡飞弹。

乌克兰反击

乌克兰也持续对俄罗斯炼油厂进行深度打击，以切断俄罗斯战争机器的燃料供应并扰乱其经济。

9月25日，乌克兰无人机袭击了彼尔姆和新沙赫京斯克炼油厂，第二天又袭击了伊尔斯基炼油厂。两天后，他们又袭击了克拉斯诺达尔边疆区的四处油田。

乌克兰还袭击了国防工业企业。9月25日，乌克兰袭击了“火花”核电站，该厂生产俄罗斯空投至乌克兰的Kh-59巡航导弹和“铠甲-S”防空系统的电子元件。乌克兰还袭击了叶夫列莫夫斯基合成橡胶厂，该厂生产“伊斯坎德尔-M”弹道导弹的固体火箭燃料。

第二天，乌克兰袭击了亚速光学机械厂的铸造车间和五栋建筑物，该厂生产用于火炮、导弹和反坦克武器的光学元件。

2026年9月28日星期一，在乌克兰基辅市中心，俄罗斯无人机袭击导致国家科学院大楼起火，救援人员扑灭了火灾。[丹·巴沙科夫/美联社照片]

俄罗斯和乌克兰今年的国防预算均已超支。

乌克兰表示，正在与欧盟委员会和国际货币基金组织举行会谈，寻求额外270亿美元的援助。

科列茨基总理表示：“其中一部分资源需要立即用于预付预计将于 2027 年第一季度到货的物资款项。”

他表示，部分资金将“通过重新分配资金”获得，但“我们也指望得到欧盟的支持”。

俄罗斯的情况也类似，据乌克兰对外情报局称，俄罗斯今年上半年的战争支出比去年同期增加了 30%。

路透社援引泄露的俄罗斯政府文件称，俄罗斯计划明年将国防开支再增加27%。预计到2027年，俄罗斯的国防预算将达到2040亿美元。

莫斯科计划通过额外借贷和削减非军事开支来支付增加的费用。