Trump, crime and corruption loom over Brazil’s presidential vote

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Millions of Brazilians will vote in a general election on Sunday that will choose the country’s president against a backdrop of corruption scandals, deep political polarization and growing voter fatigue, with two familiar political camps once again dominating the race.

Among the frontrunners are the country’s leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro, who are championing different paths for Brazil.

“It’s two competing visions of what the country should look like and what Latin America should look like,” Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and vice president of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas, told CNN.

Voting is compulsory for most adults in the world’s fifth largest country, and turnout is typically among the highest in the Americas.

The choice facing Brazilians extends well beyond domestic politics and could reshape how Brazil positions itself on the global stage . The vote would determine whether the region’s largest country tilts toward a growing conservative bloc aligned with US President Donald Trump or continues Lula’s pursuit of a multipolar foreign policy.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth and likely last term. He governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010 and returned to the presidency in 2023 after a remarkable political comeback: Lula spent 580 days in prison on corruption convictions that Brazil’s Supreme Court later annulled in 2021, restoring his political rights, before he defeated then-president Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election.

Lula is neck and neck with Flávio, who is trying to carry forward the political movement built around his father. Jair Bolsonaro, now under humanitarian house arrest for health reasons, is barred from running and is serving a 27-year sentence after being convicted of attempting a coup to overturn his 2022 election loss.

Four other presidential hopefuls trail behind Lula and the younger Bolsanaro in the polls. They include centrist psychiatrist and best-selling author Augusto Cury; right-wing former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado; Renan Santos, a right-wing founder of the Movimento Brasil Livre now running under the Missão party; and Romeu Zema, the economically liberal, right-leaning former governor of the state of Minas Gerais.

If no candidate wins more than half of valid votes on Sunday , the two with the most votes advance to an October 25 runoff.

Lula has continued to champion multilateralism while distancing the country from the United States.

That shift is visible in Brazil’s official trade data. China has been Brazil’s biggest export market since 2009, but its lead has widened sharply since Trump came to power.

Lula’s relationship with Trump soured as Brazil became caught up in the US president’s tariff agenda and US policy toward organized crime in Latin America — friction that has given Lula another platform to run on: Brazil’s sovereignty.

The first flashpoint came in summer of 2025, when Trump announced tariffs on many Brazilian goods, while explicitly citing what his administration called the politically motivated prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. The tariffs were later rolled back in November.

The former Brazilian president’s other son , Eduardo Bolsonaro, who moved to the US and lobbied the Trump administration on his father’s behalf, initially claimed credit for the pressure — a boast that later backfired on Flávio’s campaign as the tariffs hurt Brazilian businesses.

Trade tensions returned this summer when Trump imposed fresh tariffs on certain Brazilian goods, still in effect today.

Lula rejected the measures and threatened to retaliate against the US — a move he said later in September, in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, he would hold off on while negotiations with Washington continued.

The ongoing spat with the US has resonated with swing voters who lean right and embrace nationalist ideals. “Some have joked that the most effective campaigner for Lula has been Donald Trump,” Winter said. “The tariffs and the other efforts to interfere in Brazil’s politics have, for the most part, backfired and helped Lula.”

Ettore Chiereguini/AP

Lula brought that argument onto the world stage at the United Nations General Assembly in September. “Brazil is nobody’s backyard,” he said, while accusing “some Brazilian politicians” of aligning themselves with foreign interests at odds with the country’s own — remarks widely seen as aimed at Flávio Bolsonaro.

That divide extends to other foreign relations: Two days after Lula’s UN speech, Brazilian diplomats joined representatives of several countries in walking out as Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began his address, amid Lula’s sharpening criticism of Israel’s conduct in Gaza.

Flávio Bolsonaro has taken a markedly different approach, cultivating ties with Netanyahu, Trump and other leaders Lula has clashed with. When Flávio launched his campaign in July, Netanyahu appeared by video to endorse him, as reported by CNN Brasil . In May, Flávio met Trump in the Oval Office to discuss organized crime, tariffs and critical minerals, then Vance and Rubio the next day.

Argentine President Javier Milei, a libertarian and longtime Bolsonaro-family ally, traveled to Brazil in July to back Flávio’s campaign. He called Lula a “convict” and the government “thieving socialists,” prompting Brazil to recall its ambassador to Buenos Aires.

This comes as Latin America’s broader political map has moved right following closely fought elections: Right-wing firebrand Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won Colombia’s presidential election in June, and Keiko Fujimori won Peru’s runoff weeks later by roughly a tenth of a percentage point.

“A Flávio Bolsonaro victory would cement this move to the right that we’ve seen in so much of Latin America over the last two years,” Winter said, noting that many of the region’s right-leaning governments are aligned with Trump on security and drug policy.

Mauro Pimentel/AFP/Getty Images

That alignment intersects with voters’ most immediate concern: crime.

“Security and crime have been the main issues that have led the Latin American right to win 13 of the last 16 presidential elections in Latin America,” Winter said, noting that robberies, extortion and cellphone theft still shape how Brazilians experience insecurity even as homicide rates have fallen over the past decade.

Much like his father, Flávio has made a tougher approach to crime central to his campaign, advocating for the designation of major criminal factions as terrorist organizations, new federal prisons and lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16.

“The family’s brand has been successful above all because they’re seen as intolerant of crime,” Winter said, pointing to Jair Bolsonaro’s signature finger-gun pose.

During his May trip to Washington, Flávio urged the Trump administration to classify Brazil’s two most powerful criminal organizations as terrorist groups; the US announced days later that the designation would take effect that June.

Lula’s government opposed the move, warning that applying a terrorism framework to Brazilian criminal groups could become a pretext for foreign intervention.

Brazilians are also grappling with a slowing economy and persistent affordability issues. Headline indicators show low unemployment and moderating inflation, yet perceptions of household finances remain far less upbeat. “The economy is OK, but people feel like their salary doesn’t go as far,” Winter said. “They feel like their standard of living has declined, even when sometimes the official statistics tell a different story.”

These cost-of-living concerns loom over Lula’s record. The leader is associated with social mobility and poverty reduction in Brazil, which was fueled by a booming economy during his first two terms, from 2003 to 2010.

But this time, many voters are struggling to feel a similar jump. “The progress has not been nearly as widely felt as it was during his first two terms,” Winter said.

Flávio faces a different challenge: inheriting a movement still centered on his father while presenting himself as his own candidate. “Flavio Bolsonaro is not the Bolsonaro that most right-wing voters originally wanted to cast a ballot for,” Winter said. “He is clearly the most moderate member of the family, and that may give him appeal to swing voters, but it also means that he doesn’t stir enthusiasm in the same way that his father did.”

Brian Snyder/Reuters

Women are an important part of that challenge. “The new right has struggled with women voters, not just in Brazil, but throughout the Americas,” Winter said. Flávio’s campaign has given his wife, Fernanda Bolsonaro, a more visible role in an effort to appeal to women voters — but a public rupture with his stepmother Michelle Bolsonaro, a prominent evangelical figure who had helped Jair Bolsonaro make inroads with conservative women, complicated that effort. Although the two reconciled, Flávio is still struggling to make ground with that base. “There’s a real gender divide,” Winter said.

Religion is another crucial fault line in Brazil, where Catholic and evangelical voters remain politically important. Datafolha’ s latest poll shows Flávio leading Lula among evangelical voters, 47% to 27%, while Lula leads among Catholics, 45% to 33%.

The vote comes at a time of deep polarization among the electorate, who are slower to engage than in previous races. “The polarization continues to organize the race, but it is mobilizing the electorate with less intensity,” said Felipe Nunes, a political scientist and CEO of polling institute Quaest.

Winter described it as an “apathetic polarization,” where Brazilians “are still wearing the shirt of their team, politically speaking … but they’re doing it without much enthusiasm.”

That contrasts with Brazil’s last two elections. Bolsonaro rose to power in 2018 amid recession, crime and the fallout from a sweeping corruption probe centered on a bribery scheme at state oil giant Petrobras that implicated politicians and business leaders across the spectrum and badly damaged Lula’s Workers’ Party.

By 2022, Lula narrowly beat Bolsonaro amid criticism of Bolsonaro’s handling of the pandemic and fears for the country’s democracy.

Mateus Bonomi/Reuters

Much of this year’s fatigue traces back to a sense of hopelessness over systemic corruption, which ranks among voters’ biggest concerns, yet neither camp can claim the issue as its own, say experts.

Brasília has been consumed for months by investigations surrounding the collapse of Brazilian bank Banco Master and its former chief executive, Daniel Vorcaro, whose relationships extended across Brazil’s political, financial and judicial establishment.

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, one of Bolsonarism’s main adversaries, has become a central figure in the scandal. Moraes has long been portrayed by Bolsonaro supporters as aligned with Lula for his role in the investigations that led to the former president’s coup conviction.

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The issue has been pounced upon by Flávio on the election campaign when the court began weighing whether to investigate claims that Moraes advised Vorcaro as he tried to save Banco Master from collapse, while a law firm run by Moraes’ wife held a three-year, R$131 million (about $25 million) contract with the bank . Moraes has denied wrongdoing; a decision on a formal probe was postponed in September.

But as investigators reviewed Vorcaro’s messages, the scandal spread to Flávio’s own campaign. He is now under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering related to financing Vorcaro provided for “Dark Horse,” a film about Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio has denied wrongdoing.

Winter said the scandal may be reinforcing dissatisfaction with the political system rather than clearly helping one side: “It reinforces the disgust and apathy that Brazilians feel with their political system as a whole,” he said.

For Bruno Brandão, executive director of Transparency International Brazil, the problem goes beyond Banco Master. “One side only cares about the corruption of the other side and closes its eyes to corruption among those in its own political camp,” Brandão told CNN, arguing that polarization makes sustained pressure for accountability harder.

He also points to a structural shift, with presidents weakened by successive crises ceding more control over spending to Congress — making this year’s simultaneous congressional elections, which will decide who the next president governs with, especially consequential.

Maira Erlich/彭博社/盖蒂图片社

数百万巴西人将于周日参加总统大选，选出该国总统。此次大选的背景是腐败丑闻、严重的政治两极分化和选民日益增长的疲劳感，两个熟悉的政治阵营再次主导了竞选。

领跑者包括该国左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦和右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗（被监禁的前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗之子），他们为巴西提出了不同的发展道路。

“这是关于国家应该是什么样子以及拉丁美洲应该是什么样子的两种相互竞争的愿景，”《美洲季刊》主编、美洲协会/美洲理事会政策副总裁布莱恩·温特告诉 CNN。

在世界第五大国家，投票对大多数成年人来说是强制性的，而且投票率通常是美洲最高的。

巴西民众面临的选择远不止于国内政治，它甚至可能重塑巴西在全球舞台上的定位。此次投票将决定这个地区最大的国家是倾向于与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普结盟的日益壮大的保守派阵营，还是继续推行卢拉的多极外交政策。

现年80岁的卢拉正在寻求第四个也是很可能是最后一个任期。他曾在2003年至2010年执政巴西，并在2023年上演了一场令人瞩目的政治复出后重返总统宝座：卢拉曾因腐败罪名入狱580天，但巴西最高法院于2021年推翻了这些判决，恢复了他的政治权利。之后，他在2022年的选举中击败了时任总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗。

卢拉与弗拉维奥势均力敌，弗拉维奥正试图延续其父创立的政治运动。雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗目前因健康原因被软禁在家，他被禁止参选，并因企图发动政变推翻其2022年大选结果而被判处27年监禁。

在民调中，还有四位总统候选人落后于卢拉和博尔索纳罗。他们包括中间派精神病学家、畅销书作家奥古斯托·库里；右翼前戈亚斯州州长罗纳尔多·卡亚多；右翼自由巴西运动创始人、现以米萨奥党候选人身份参选的雷南·桑托斯；以及经济自由主义、右倾的前米纳斯吉拉斯州州长罗梅乌·泽马。

如果周日没有候选人获得超过半数的有效选票，则得票最多的两名候选人将进入 10 月 25 日的决选。

卢拉一直倡导多边主义，同时疏远了委内瑞拉与美国的关系。

巴西官方贸易数据显示，这种转变显而易见。自2009年以来，中国一直是巴西最大的出口市场，但自特朗普上台以来，中国对巴西的出口领先优势已大幅扩大。

随着巴西卷入美国总统的关税议程和美国针对拉丁美洲有组织犯罪的政策，卢拉与特朗普的关系恶化——这种摩擦为卢拉提供了另一个竞选平台：巴西的主权。

第一个冲突爆发点出现在2025年夏季，当时特朗普宣布对许多巴西商品加征关税，并明确指出这是由于其政府所称的对巴西总统博索纳罗的政治迫害。这些关税后来在11月被取消。

这位巴西前总统的另一个儿子爱德华多·博索纳罗移居美国，代表他的父亲游说特朗普政府，最初声称施压是他的功劳——但这一吹嘘后来适得其反，因为关税损害了巴西企业。

今年夏天，特朗普对某些巴西商品加征新的关税，贸易紧张局势再次升级，这些关税至今仍然有效。

卢拉拒绝了这些措施，并威胁要对美国进行报复——他在9月晚些时候接受CNN记者克里斯蒂安·阿曼普尔采访时表示，在与华盛顿的谈判继续进行期间，他将暂缓采取报复行动。

与美国的持续争端引起了倾向右翼、拥护民族主义理念的摇摆选民的共鸣。“有人开玩笑说，卢拉最有效的竞选者是唐纳德·特朗普，”温特说。“关税和其他干预巴西政治的举措，在很大程度上都适得其反，反而帮助了卢拉。”

埃托雷·基耶雷吉尼/美联社

卢拉在9月份的联合国大会上将这一论点带到了世界舞台上。他说：“巴西不是任何人的后院”，同时指责“一些巴西政客”与外国利益结盟，损害了巴西自身的利益——这番言论被广泛认为是针对弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的。

这种分歧也延伸到了其他外交关系中：在卢拉于联合国发表讲话两天后，当以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡开始讲话时，巴西外交官与其他几个国家的代表一起退场，因为卢拉对以色列在加沙的行为进行了越来越严厉的批评。

弗拉维奥·博索纳罗采取了截然不同的策略，他积极与内塔尼亚胡、特朗普以及其他一些卢拉曾与之发生冲突的领导人建立联系。据CNN巴西频道报道，弗拉维奥7月启动竞选活动时，内塔尼亚胡通过视频连线表示支持。5月，弗拉维奥在椭圆形办公室会见了特朗普，讨论了有组织犯罪、关税和关键矿产等问题，第二天又会见了万斯和卢比奥。

阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱是自由主义者，也是博索纳罗家族的长期盟友。他于7月访问巴西，支持弗拉维奥·卢拉的竞选活动。他称卢拉为“罪犯”，称政府为“窃取国家财富的社会主义者”，这促使巴西召回了驻布宜诺斯艾利斯大使。

此前，拉丁美洲的政治版图在激烈的选举后向右倾斜：右翼激进分子阿韦拉多·德拉·埃斯普里利亚在6月份的哥伦比亚总统选举中险胜，几周后，藤森庆子在秘鲁的决选中以大约十分之一个百分点的优势获胜。

温特表示：“弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的胜利将巩固过去两年我们在拉丁美洲大部分地区看到的右倾趋势。”他指出，该地区许多右倾政府在安全和毒品政策方面与特朗普保持一致。

毛罗·皮门特尔/法新社/盖蒂图片社

这种契合点与选民最直接的担忧——犯罪——不谋而合。

温特表示：“安全和犯罪问题一直是拉丁美洲右翼在过去16届总统选举中赢得13次胜利的主要原因。”他指出，尽管过去十年巴西的凶杀率有所下降，但抢劫、勒索和手机盗窃仍然影响着巴西人的安全感。

和他的父亲一样，弗拉维奥将对犯罪采取更强硬的手段作为其竞选的核心，主张将主要犯罪团伙指定为恐怖组织，建立新的联邦监狱，并将刑事责任年龄降低到 16 岁。

“这个家族的品牌之所以成功，最主要的原因是他们被视为对犯罪零容忍，”温特说道，同时指着雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗标志性的手枪手势。

弗拉维奥在五月份访问华盛顿期间，敦促特朗普政府将巴西两个最强大的犯罪组织列为恐怖组织；几天后，美国宣布该认定将于当年六月生效。

卢拉政府反对这一举措，并警告说，将恐怖主义框架应用于巴西犯罪集团可能会成为外国干预的借口。

巴西人也正面临着经济放缓和持续的消费负担能力问题。尽管总体指标显示失业率低、通胀趋于温和，但人们对家庭财务状况的看法仍然远没有那么乐观。“经济状况尚可，但人们感觉自己的工资买不起东西，”温特说，“他们感觉自己的生活水平下降了，即使有时官方统计数据显示的情况并非如此。”

这些生活成本问题始终笼罩着卢拉的政绩。这位领导人与巴西的社会流动性和减贫紧密相连，而这得益于他前两届任期（2003年至2010年）期间经济的蓬勃发展。

但这一次，许多选民难以感受到类似的进步。“与他前两届任期相比，此次的进步远没有那么显著，”温特说道。

弗拉维奥面临着不同的挑战：他既要继承一个仍然以他父亲为中心的政治运动，又要以独立候选人的身份参选。“弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗并非大多数右翼选民最初想要投票支持的那个博尔索纳罗，”温特说。“他显然是家族中最温和的成员，这或许能吸引一些摇摆选民，但也意味着他无法像他父亲那样激起人们的热情。”

布莱恩·斯奈德/路透社

女性是这一挑战的重要组成部分。“新右翼在争取女性选民方面一直举步维艰，不仅在巴西，而且在整个美洲都是如此，”温特说道。弗拉维奥的竞选活动让他的妻子费尔南达·博尔索纳罗扮演了更加引人注目的角色，以期吸引女性选民——但他与继母米歇尔·博尔索纳罗的公开决裂，使这一努力变得复杂起来。米歇尔是一位著名的福音派人士，曾帮助雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗在保守派女性选民中取得进展。尽管两人最终和解，弗拉维奥仍在努力争取这部分选民的支持。“性别鸿沟依然存在，”温特说道。

宗教是巴西政治的另一条关键分界线，天主教徒和福音派选民在政治上仍然举足轻重。Datafolha 最新民调显示，在福音派选民中，弗拉维奥以 47% 对 27% 领先卢拉；而在天主教选民中，卢拉则以 45% 对 33% 领先。

此次投票正值选民严重两极分化之际，选民的参与度也比以往选举要低。“两极分化仍在影响着选情，但选民的参与热情有所下降，”政治学家、民调机构Quaest首席执行官费利佩·努内斯表示。

温特将其描述为一种“冷漠的极化”，巴西人“在政治上仍然穿着自己球队的球衣……但他们并没有多少热情”。

这与巴西最近两次大选的情况截然不同。博索纳罗在2018年崛起，当时巴西正处于经济衰退、犯罪猖獗以及一场席卷全国的腐败调查的余波之中。这场调查的核心是巴西国家石油公司（Petrobras）的贿赂丑闻，牵涉到各界政商领袖，严重损害了卢拉领导的劳工党。

到 2022 年，卢拉以微弱优势击败博索纳罗，博索纳罗因应对疫情不力而受到批评，人们也对该国的民主感到担忧。

马特乌斯·博诺米/路透社

今年民众的疲惫感很大程度上源于对系统性腐败的无望感，而腐败也是选民最关心的问题之一，但专家表示，任何一方阵营都不能声称这个问题是自己的问题。

几个月来，巴西利亚一直被围绕巴西银行 Banco Master 倒闭及其前首席执行官 Daniel Vorcaro 的调查所占据，Vorcaro 的关系遍及巴西的政治、金融和司法机构。

最高法院大法官亚历山大·德·莫赖斯是博索纳罗主义的主要反对者之一，如今已成为这起丑闻的核心人物。长期以来，博索纳罗的支持者一直将莫赖斯描绘成与卢拉结盟，因为他在导致这位前总统因政变被定罪的调查中扮演了重要角色。

针对巴西政府的暴力袭击酝酿已久。以下是您需要了解的内容。

在竞选期间，弗拉维奥抓住这一问题大做文章。当时，法院开始权衡是否调查有关莫赖斯曾为沃卡罗提供法律咨询以挽救濒临倒闭的马斯特银行的指控，而莫赖斯妻子经营的一家律师事务所与该银行签订了一份为期三年、价值1.31亿雷亚尔（约合2500万美元）的合同。莫赖斯否认有任何不当行为；9月份，关于正式调查的决定被推迟。

但随着调查人员审查沃卡罗的短信，丑闻蔓延到了弗拉维奥自己的竞选团队。他目前正因涉嫌腐败和洗钱接受调查，这些指控与沃卡罗为一部关于雅伊尔·博索纳罗的电影《黑马》提供的资金有关。弗拉维奥否认有任何不当行为。

温特表示，这起丑闻可能加剧了人们对政治体制的不满，而不是明显地帮助了某一方：“它加剧了巴西人对整个政治体制的厌恶和冷漠，”他说。

透明国际巴西分会执行主任布鲁诺·布兰道认为，问题远不止是马斯特银行事件。“一方只关心另一方的腐败，却对自身政治阵营内部的腐败视而不见，”布兰道告诉CNN，他认为这种两极分化使得持续追究责任变得更加困难。

他还指出了一种结构性转变，由于接连不断的危机削弱了总统的权力，他们不得不将更多的支出控制权让渡给国会——这使得今年同时举行的国会选举（将决定下一任总统与谁共同执政）显得尤为重要。