Germany’s far-right AfD is poised for power – and split on whether to cozy up to Trump

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is speeding into state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday with a sizeable lead in the polls. If the party gets an outright majority, it will put the far right in charge of a state for the first time since World War II.

The party is projected to get 42% of the vote in the eastern German state, according to pollster Infratest dimap – a massive jump compared to its support just a couple years ago, and potentially enough to propel it to power in the country’s electoral system.

But there are roadblocks to the AfD expanding its success in mainstream German politics.

The party has been classified as “extremist” by German intelligence for its rhetoric in relation to Muslim citizens of Germany and on immigration, and it’s been denounced by mainstream conservatives and progressives alike.

All other parties in the country operate a so-called “firewall” – an unwritten rule to not form a coalition with the AfD or work together in parliament. If the AfD doesn’t get an absolute majority in Sunday’s elections, all other parties could form a ragtag coalition to shut it out of power in the state.

It’s partly that isolation at home that has compelled the AfD to seek out ties with the United States’ MAGA movement.

It’s also partly the shared right-wing politics and the brazen rhetoric and branding – hats with the slogan “Make Germany Great Again” are not uncommon at AfD events now. And the ties go well beyond merch.

Jan Woitas/dpa/Jan Woitas/AP

The party’s co-leader Alice Weidel met with US Vice President JD Vance on the sidelines of the Munch Security Conference last year. Before that, she also joined Elon Musk for a livestream event on his platform, X. And a small group of AfD politicians travelled to Washington for US President Donald Trump’s second inauguration.

In return, Trump administration officials have also lent the party a hand on several occasions. Vance used his 2025 speech in Munich to urge German lawmakers to end their “firewall” against the far-right. Secretary of State Marco Rubio decried German authorities officially labelling the party as extremist, calling the decision “tyranny in disguise.”

But as Trump continues to raise eyebrows in Europe for some of his foreign policy moves – particularly the war in Iran, saber-rattling in Greenland and intervention in Venezuela – some factions of the AfD now appear interested in keeping their distance.

It comes as the United States’ reputation among the German public has fallen and many of Trump’s foreign policy decisions are widely disliked. A poll by Germany’s public broadcaster ARD in March found that 58% of Germans considered the attacks on Iran unjustified. And in January, another ARD poll found that 72% of the population considered the arrest of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro unjustified.

“I think there is ideological alignment on key issues, and I think the AfD is also learning from the MAGA movement,” said Almut Möller, the director for European and global affairs at the European Policy Centre, a think tank in Brussels. The two parties particularly align when it comes to rhetoric about how the country should “care about (its) own people and stop caring about everybody else,” Möller said.

Christian Mang/Reuters

‘Remigration’ and Russian lessons: German far-right party promises radical measures if elected

“Having said that, it is not a straightforward relationship to handle at all times,” Möller told CNN, particularly when it comes to “policies that affect the German economy,” such as the Trump tariffs or pain at the gas pump amid the Iran war.

Against that backdrop, the leaders of the AfD have yo-yoed back and forth between praising Trump’s domestic stances on immigration, culture war issues and nationalism, while criticizing his interference in other countries.

The AfD lawmaker who also serves as the party’s foreign policy spokesperson, Markus Frohnmaier, told CNN he has made multiple trips to the United States this year and has fostered strong links with the MAGA movement. Speaking in his office in the Bundestag just days before the election, he said their politics have plenty in common, especially on the issue of immigration.

The AfD has campaigned on proposals to deport migrants and refugees, as well as expand mass detention facilities – a policy widely referred to as “remigration.”

Party officials have frequently used anti-Muslim rhetoric and singled out Muslim and Ukrainian residents when talking about who they wish to deport.

Another pledge is to create separate schools for the children of refugees, to teach them the curriculum of their home countries.

Sean Gallup/Getty Images

With a US border patrol cap displayed on his bookcase, Frohnmaier called Trump’s handling of migration “really impressive,” adding, “I think this is something what we need in Germany too – a really good border control, probably something like ICE, and that would improve the situation dramatically .”

Frohnmaier also has in his office a famous 2020 photo of Trump holding a bible at a Washington, DC, church amid protests near the White House. But Frohnmaier was clear that there are American policies he doesn’t support.

“My colleagues and friends in the US know that we are more critical when it comes to the war in Iran,” he said.

When it comes to the hot-button issue of US tariffs, Frohnmaier said, “I mean, it would be a bit weird if Donald Trump would protect German interests, right?”

“It’s okay to agree not in all points with each other… They need to protect American interests, and we’re German, and we try to protect our interests,” he told CNN.

Frohnmaier, who has also made multiple trips to Russia, has walked a careful tightrope in his foreign policy role – courting MAGA Republicans at the same time as establishing ties with Kremlin insiders.

For supposedly a state-level election, Russia has been a feature.

“We’re quite transparent about saying that we want an especially good relationship with Russia, of course, but also with the United States of America, because those are simply important players in this world,” said Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD candidate for the premiership in Saxony-Anhalt, who would lead the state in the event that his party gets an outright majority of votes on Sunday.

“We see American interests, we see Russian interests, but we have our own interest, namely the German interest,” Siegmund told CNN in an August interview.

Chris Emil Janssen/dpa/AP

The AfD’s support of Russia is no secret – the party is against further aid and defense packages for Ukraine, often referring to defense funding for Kyiv as money that is not being spent on programs for German people.

Key party officials have also made frequent trips to Moscow, St. Petersberg and the occupied Crimean peninsula – something that has raised alarm bells among corruption watchdogs .

The AfD has also vowed to bring back the cheap Russian gas that once fueled Germany but has been phased out following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

But for eastern states, like Saxony-Anhalt, which were once under the purview of the Soviet Union, Möller said “it runs deeper than the cost of energy. There is a long tradition of working with Russia in Germany.”

Of course, issues of foreign relations and immigration aren’t decided on the state level.

Analyst Grégoire Roos, the director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programs at Chatham House, said he would expect the AfD to lean more into issues of culture, education and local policing if it secures power in Saxony-Anhalt.

“You would likely see patterns comparable to those we’ve seen in the US in terms of how you change school programs, put pressure on police forces,” Roos told CNN.

Roos also said he would expect to see the AfD state government take up “cultural fights” such as banning LGBTQ+ flags, restricting inclusion policies in schools, creating rules to raise the German flag in schools and possibly enacting changes in history books.

“I think those would not transform daily life, as such, but it would infringe on some of some of what is seen as basic liberties in Germany,” the analyst said. “They will understand that this is a laboratory, a window to or magnifying glass put on what they could deliver at a national scale, and so they would focus on symbols.”

A win would also give the AfD a presence in Germany’s upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat , which would be a symbolic win for the party, but would likely not move the needle much on national policy.

“This is of course a strong opportunity to basically show that they’re at the gates of power now,” Möller added. “Even though Saxony-Anhalt is a small federal state and has less than 2 million inhabitants, this will resonate more widely.”

The polls indicate the election could go either way. All other mainstream parties in Saxony-Anhalt are polling at 54% combined, according to Infratest dimap. Some of those parties won’t even reach the 5% threshold to have any of their votes counted, which is why the AfD could secure power with less than half the electorate.

Taken together, it means the AfD’s projected support of 42% presents a loud knock on those gates of power.

德国另类选择党（AfD）在周日萨克森-安哈尔特州的州选举中民调领先优势明显，形势一片大好。如果该党获得绝对多数席位，这将是二战以来极右翼首次执掌一个州的政权。

据民调机构 Infratest dimap 预测，该党将在德国东部的一个州获得 42% 的选票——与几年前的支持率相比，这是一个巨大的飞跃，并且有可能足以使其在该国的选举制度中执政。

但德国选择党要想在德国主流政治中扩大其成功，仍存在一些障碍。

该党因其针对德国穆斯林公民和移民问题的言论而被德国情报部门列为“极端主义”政党，并受到主流保守派和进步派的共同谴责。

该国其他所有政党都奉行所谓的“防火墙”——一条不成文的规定，即不与德国选择党（AfD）组建联合政府，也不在议会中合作。如果德国选择党在周日的选举中未能获得绝对多数席位，其他所有政党可能会组成一个临时联盟，将其排除在国家执政之外。

正是国内的这种孤立状态，迫使德国选择党寻求与美国的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动建立联系。

部分原因在于双方共同的右翼政治立场，以及大胆的言辞和品牌宣传——如今在德国选择党（AfD）的活动中，印有“让德国再次伟大”口号的帽子并不罕见。而且，这种联系远不止于周边商品。

Jan Woitas/dpa/Jan Woitas/AP

该党联合主席艾丽斯·魏德尔去年在明斯克安全会议期间会见了美国副总统约翰·迪·万斯。此前，她还与埃隆·马斯克一起参加了其平台X上的直播活动。此外，一小群德国选择党（AfD）的政治人物前往华盛顿参加了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的第二次就职典礼。

作为回报，特朗普政府官员也多次向该党伸出援手。万斯在慕尼黑发表2025年总统大选演讲时，敦促德国议员取消针对极右翼的“防火墙”。国务卿马可·卢比奥谴责德国当局正式将该党贴上极端主义标签，称此举是“伪装的暴政”。

但随着特朗普的一些外交政策举措——特别是伊朗战争、在格陵兰岛的武力威胁和对委内瑞拉的干预——继续在欧洲引起争议，德国选择党的一些派别现在似乎有兴趣与他保持距离。

与此同时，美国在德国公众中的声誉有所下降，特朗普的许多外交政策决定也普遍不受欢迎。德国公共广播公司ARD在3月份进行的一项民意调查显示，58%的德国人认为对伊朗的袭击是不合理的。而在1月份，ARD的另一项民意调查则发现，72%的德国人认为逮捕委内瑞拉前领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗是不合理的。

“我认为双方在关键问题上存在意识形态上的契合点，而且我认为德国选择党也在从‘让美国再次伟大’运动中汲取经验，”布鲁塞尔智库欧洲政策中心欧洲与全球事务主任阿尔穆特·穆勒表示。穆勒指出，这两个政党在关于国家应该“关心本国人民，不再关心其他国家”的言论上尤其一致。

克里斯蒂安·芒/路透社

“移民回流”与俄罗斯的教训：德国极右翼政党承诺若当选将采取激进措施

“话虽如此，但这种关系并非总是那么容易处理，”莫勒告诉 CNN，尤其是在“影响德国经济的政策”方面，例如特朗普的关税或伊朗战争期间加油站的价格上涨。

在此背景下，德国选择党的领导人一会儿赞扬特朗普在移民、文化战争和民族主义等国内问题上的立场，一会儿又批评他对其他国家的干涉，态度摇摆不定。

德国选择党议员兼该党外交政策发言人马库斯·弗罗恩迈尔告诉CNN，他今年多次访问美国，并与“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动建立了密切联系。在选举前几天，他在联邦议院办公室接受采访时表示，他们的政治理念有很多共同之处，尤其是在移民问题上。

德国选择党一直致力于推动驱逐移民和难民，以及扩大大规模拘留设施——这项政策被广泛称为“重新移民”。

党内官员经常使用反穆斯林言论，并在谈到他们想驱逐哪些人时，特别点名批评穆斯林和乌克兰居民。

另一项承诺是为难民儿童建立单独的学校，教授他们祖国的课程。

Sean Gallup/Getty Images

弗罗恩迈尔的书架上摆放着一顶美国边境巡逻队的帽子，他称特朗普对移民问题的处理“非常令人印象深刻”，并补充说：“我认为德国也需要这样的措施——一个真正有效的边境管制机构，可能类似于美国移民及海关执法局（ICE），这将极大地改善现状。”

弗罗恩迈尔的办公室里还挂着一张著名的2020年照片，照片中特朗普在华盛顿特区的一座教堂里手持圣经，当时白宫附近正爆发抗议活动。但弗罗恩迈尔明确表示，他不支持美国的某些政策。

他说：“我在美国的同事和朋友都知道，我们在伊朗战争问题上态度更加批判。”

谈到美国关税这个敏感问题时，弗罗恩迈尔说：“我的意思是，如果唐纳德·特朗普保护德国的利益，那岂不是有点奇怪吗？”

“彼此之间不必在所有事情上都达成一致……他们需要保护美国的利益，而我们是德国人，我们努力保护自己的利益，”他告诉 CNN。

弗罗恩迈尔也曾多次访问俄罗斯，他在外交政策角色中小心翼翼地走钢丝——既要讨好“让美国再次伟大”的共和党人，又要与克里姆林宫内部人士建立联系。

这场本应是州级选举的事件中，俄罗斯却成为了焦点。

“我们非常坦诚地表示，我们当然希望与俄罗斯建立特别良好的关系，但也希望与美国建立良好的关系，因为它们都是当今世界的重要参与者，”德国选择党萨克森-安哈尔特州州长候选人乌尔里希·西格蒙德说道。如果他的政党在周日的选举中获得绝对多数选票，他将领导该州。

“我们看到了美国的利益，我们看到了俄罗斯的利益，但我们也有我们自己的利益，即德国的利益，”西格蒙德在8月份接受CNN采访时表示。

克里斯·埃米尔·詹森/德新社/美联社

德国选择党对俄罗斯的支持已不是什么秘密——该党反对向乌克兰提供进一步的援助和国防方案，经常将拨给基辅的国防资金称为没有用于造福德国人民的项目的资金。

一些重要的党内官员也频繁前往莫斯科、圣彼得堡和被占领的克里米亚半岛——这引起了反腐机构的警觉。

德国选择党还誓言要恢复曾经为德国提供燃料的廉价俄罗斯天然气，但随着俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰，俄罗斯天然气已被逐步淘汰。

但对于像萨克森-安哈尔特州这样曾经属于苏联统治的东部各州来说，莫勒表示，“这不仅仅是能源成本的问题。德国与俄罗斯合作有着悠久的传统。”

当然，外交关系和移民问题不是由国家层面决定的。

查塔姆研究所欧洲、俄罗斯和欧亚项目主任、分析师格雷戈尔·罗斯表示，如果德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州获得政权，他预计该党将更加重视文化、教育和地方警务问题。

罗斯告诉 CNN：“你可能会看到与我们在美国看到的类似的模式，比如改变学校课程、向警察部队施压等等。”

罗斯还表示，他预计德国选择党领导的州政府会发起“文化斗争”，例如禁止悬挂 LGBTQ+ 旗帜、限制学校的包容性政策、制定在学校升起德国国旗的规则，甚至可能修改历史教科书。

“我认为这些措施本身不会改变日常生活，但会侵犯德国人眼中的一些基本自由，”这位分析人士说。“他们会明白这是一个实验室，一个可以让他们审视自身能力、在全国范围内推行政策的窗口或放大镜，因此他们会更加注重象征意义。”

此次胜利还将使德国选择党在德国联邦议院（联邦参议院）获得席位，这对该党而言将是一次象征性的胜利，但可能不会对国家政策产生太大影响。

“这当然是一个绝佳的机会，可以向世人表明他们现在已经掌握了权力，”默勒补充道。“尽管萨克森-安哈尔特州是一个人口不足200万的小联邦州，但这番话的影响力将会更加广泛。”

民调显示，此次选举结果难以预料。据德国联邦基础设施和市场研究机构Infratest dimap的数据显示，萨克森-安哈尔特州其他主流政党的支持率总和为54%。其中一些政党甚至无法达到5%的得票门槛，这意味着他们的选票可能全部被计入，因此德国选择党（AfD）有可能以不到半数的选票赢得政权。

综合来看，这意味着德国选择党预计获得的 42% 支持率，是对权力大门的一次有力敲击。