Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro close campaigns ahead of critical election

Latest polls suggest Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro is narrowing, with neither candidate likely to win outright on Sunday.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for re-election, waves a Brazilian flag during a campaign rally in Sao Paulo on October 3, 2026, a day ahead of the country's general election [Andre Penner/AP]

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro have wrapped up their election campaigns, each voicing confidence in victory ahead of Sunday’s tightly contested first-round presidential vote.

Lula, 80, closed his re-election bid on Saturday with a march through Sao Paulo, Brazil’s economic powerhouse, drawing what his campaign called a record crowd for a closing rally.

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“Tomorrow, we’re going to win the elections in the first round,” he told supporters, describing Sunday’s vote as a choice between “democracy and barbarism” and promising to “defeat the far right”.

He has also framed the election as a test of Brazil’s sovereignty, warning against “meddling” by Washington.

Bolsonaro led a motorcycle caravan through towns in Sao Paulo state, echoing the campaign style of his father, before rallying later in Rio de Janeiro. “I am convinced that everything is in place for us to win this election in the first round,” he said.

The 45-year-old is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally of US President Donald Trump. The former leader, 71, is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.

The younger Bolsonaro was photographed at his rally holding a portrait of his father.

Trump has not formally endorsed Bolsonaro but has said he is watching the election “very closely”, a level of US interest that has become a flashpoint in the campaign .

Lula’s supporters have seized on it as evidence Washington is trying to meddle in the elections, while some Bolsonaro supporters, frustrated by the cost of living, say they would welcome US pressure if it helped force change at home.

Polls released on Saturday suggested Lula was still ahead but his lead was narrowing, with neither candidate likely to win outright on Sunday. Such a result would send the race to a run-off on October 25 between the two frontrunners, a contest polls suggest would also be close.

It is a far tighter race than Lula’s last victory in 2022, when he beat the elder Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points.

Meanwhile, the Bolsonaro campaign has faced scrutiny over a film-funding scandal. Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation over financing for Dark Horse, a biopic about his father, bankrolled by a jailed banker tied to one of Brazil’s biggest financial scandals.

Brazil’s Supreme Court authorised federal police in April to investigate whether Flavio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula.

Bolsonaro has pledged to seek his father’s release from prison if elected, and has echoed his father’s unsubstantiated claims questioning the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting system, which analysts say could be laying the groundwork to contest the result if he loses.

Beyond the presidency, Brazil’s nearly 160 million registered voters will also choose lawmakers, governors and senators on Sunday.

Right-wing candidates have gained ground in Latin America in recent months.

最新民调显示，卢拉对博尔索纳罗的领先优势正在缩小，两位候选人都不太可能在周日的选举中直接获胜。

2026年10月3日，在巴西大选前一天，正在竞选连任的总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在圣保罗的一次竞选集会上挥舞着巴西国旗。[安德烈·彭纳/美联社]

巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦和右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗都已结束了竞选活动，两人在周日竞争激烈的总统选举首轮投票前都表示有信心获胜。

80岁的卢拉周六在巴西经济重镇圣保罗举行游行，为他的连任竞选画上句号。他的竞选团队称，此次游行吸引了创纪录的集会人数。

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“明天，我们将在第一轮选举中获胜，”他告诉支持者，并将周日的投票描述为“民主与野蛮”之间的选择，并承诺“击败极右势力”。

他还把这次选举定性为对巴西主权的考验，并警告华盛顿不要“干涉”。

博索纳罗率领摩托车队穿过圣保罗州的各个城镇，效仿其父的竞选风格，随后在里约热内卢举行集会。“我确信一切就绪，我们将在第一轮投票中赢得这场选举，”他说。

这位45岁的男子是前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的儿子，后者是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的亲密盟友。这位71岁的前总统因试图推翻2022年败给卢拉的选举结果而被判处27年监禁。

小博索纳罗在竞选集会上被拍到手持其父亲的画像。

特朗普尚未正式支持博索纳罗，但他表示正在“非常密切地”关注此次选举，美国对此次选举的关注程度已成为竞选中的一个焦点。

卢拉的支持者们抓住这一点，将其视为华盛顿试图干预选举的证据；而一些博尔索纳罗的支持者则因生活成本高昂而感到沮丧，他们表示，如果美国施加的压力有助于迫使国内发生变革，他们将表示欢迎。

周六公布的民调显示，卢拉仍然领先，但优势正在缩小，两位候选人都不太可能在周日的初选中直接胜出。这样的结果意味着选情将进入10月25日的第二轮投票，由两位领先候选人角逐，而民调显示第二轮投票的竞争也将十分激烈。

这次的竞争比卢拉在 2022 年的上次胜利要激烈得多，当时他以不到两个百分点的优势击败了老博索纳罗。

与此同时，博索纳罗竞选团队因一起电影融资丑闻而受到审查。弗拉维奥·博索纳罗正因其父亲的传记电影《黑马》的融资问题接受调查，该片由一名与巴西最大的金融丑闻之一有关的在押银行家出资拍摄。

巴西最高法院于 4 月授权联邦警察调查弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗是否发表了关于卢拉的诽谤性言论。

博索纳罗承诺，如果当选，他将寻求让其父从监狱获释。他还附和了其父毫无根据的说法，质疑巴西电子投票系统的可靠性。分析人士称，这可能是在为他败选后挑战选举结果做准备。

除了总统选举之外，巴西近 1.6 亿注册选民还将在周日选举议员、州长和参议员。

近几个月来，右翼候选人在拉丁美洲获得了更多支持。