More missiles, less vehicles: Australia unveils strategic review

MELBOURNE, Australia — Australia’s defense minister released the public version of the long-awaited Defence Strategic Review on Monday, which is meant to provide a blueprint to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region .

The 110-page report calls for fundamental changes to the structure of the Australian Defence Force to counter modern and emerging threats, but does so at the expense of capability acquisition and base infrastructure projects. While some efforts will simply undergo a delay or “re-scoping,” others will get canceled outright.

The review was conducted over several months by Angus Houston, a former Australian Defence Force chief, and Stephen Smith, a former defense minister. The effort was “the most ambitious review of Defence’s posture and structure since the Second World War,” according to the document.

“A large-scale conventional and non-conventional military build-up without strategic reassurance is contributing to the most challenging circumstances in our region for decades,” Defence Minister Richard Marles stated in his introduction to the report. “Combined with rising tensions and reduced warning time for conflict, the risks of military escalation or miscalculation are rising.”

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to the media during a press conference after the release of the Defence Strategic Review on April 24, 2023. (Lukas Coch/AAP Image via AP)

The report also said the United States is no longer the unipolar leader in the region amid a return to strategic competition among major powers.

“As a consequence, for the first time in 80 years, we must go back to fundamentals, to take a first-principles approach as to how we manage and seek to avoid the highest level of strategic risk we now face as a nation: the prospect of major conflict in the region that directly threatens our national interest,” the report read. “Strategically, we may have already entered a decisive period for the Indo-Pacific. As a result, our ability to address the reduced strategic warning time identified in the 2020 Defence Strategic Update has come into sharper relief.”

That 2020 document acknowledged Australia’s traditionally held view that the nation would have a decade of warning time to prepare itself for conflict no longer applied. The latest Defence Strategic Review takes this one step further, calling for a three-stage strategy beginning with a two-year period between now and 2025 to address “matters which must be prioritised and addressed urgently.” A second period would follow between 2026 and 2030, and then a third “beyond 2031.”

The Defence Strategic Review also recommended the government commission a new version every two years in place of the sporadically released defense whitepapers of the past.

Furthermore, it calls for a change in the military’s Defence of Australia doctrine — adhered to over the past 50 years — to one which will see a more integrated force able to respond to rapidly changing risks.

“The current Australian Defence Force (ADF) force structure is based on a ‘balanced force’ model that reflects a bygone era. It does not adequately address our new strategic environment,” the review stated. “The ADF needs a much more focused force that can respond to the risks we face. It should be informed by net assessment and able to effect a strategy of denial.”

For the first time, the review addresses the need to harden Australia’s air bases and secure fuel supplies against attack from Australia’s north. In the past, these were couched in general terms; there are currently no hardened defense facilities.

The review calls for the military to apply several “ critical capabilities ,” including:

Maritime drones that can perform intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions on the surface and underwater.

An enhanced integrated targeting capability.

Enhanced long-range precision strike weapons for all domains of warfare.

An amphibious-capable combined-arms land system.

All-domain maritime capabilities for sea-denial operations.

A networked expeditionary air operations capability.

An enhanced integrated air and missile defense system.

A joint and expeditionary theater-logistics system.

A theater command-and-control network.

A network of northern bases for logistics support, denial and deterrence.

The Royal Australian Navy’s plan to acquire a nuclear-powered attack submarine under the AUKUS framework is also a linchpin of the new Defence Strategic Review, as is the government’s continuous naval shipbuilding strategy. The AUKUS deal between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States is meant to improve information and technology sharing efforts between the allies.

“The acquisition of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines will transform Navy’s capability,” the report read. “Nuclear-powered submarines are key assets both in effecting a strategy of denial and in the provision of anti-submarine warfare and long-range strike options.”

The government should expand efforts to acquire long-range precision strike weapons, including the recently announced plan to buy the American-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System , and support plans to co-develop and purchase the American-made Precision Strike Missile, according to the review.

U.S. and Philippine troops fire a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System on March 31, 2023, in Laur, Nueva Ecija, Philippines. (Ezra Acayan/Getty Images)

The military should also speed up the Army’s littoral combat maneuver program, the report said.

“Defence must rapidly accelerate and expand Army’s littoral manoeuvre vessels (medium and heavy landing craft) and long-range fires (land-based maritime strike) programs. This will require Army to re-posture key capabilities,” the document stated. “It is essential to immediately accelerate the acquisition of Land 8710 Phases 1 & 2 — Army Littoral Manoeuvre Vessels (Landing Craft Medium and Heavy) and expand the scope of this capability. Without this, only limited numbers of major land capabilities can be projected offshore.”

Meanwhile, cuts are to be made to fund the military’s future model. Key among these is confirmation that Army’s Land 400 Phase 3 program for a tracked infantry fighting vehicle — with an estimated value of AU$25 billion (U.S. $17 billion) — will be slashed from 450 vehicles to 129. That new quantity could equip a single mechanized battalion for littoral maneuver.

The second phase of the Army’s Land 8116 protected mobile fires project — an effort to acquire 30 more AS9 self-propelled howitzers and K10 ammunition resupply vehicles made by South Korea’s Hanwha — would also get scrapped under the review’s plan.

Furthermore, the review calls for an independent analysis of the Royal Australian Navy’s surface combatants by the end of the third quarter of this year. This could impact the service’s plans to build nine Hunter-class frigates and the generally unarmed Arafura-class offshore patrol vessels.

A keel-laying ceremony takes place for the offshore patrol vessel Pilbara in 2020 in Perth, Australia. It is one of the Arafura-class ships. (Paul Kane/Getty Images)

The report also quashes a suggestion that the Royal Australian Air Force acquire a small number of Northrop Grumman-made B-21 Raider strategic bombers.

“The Review has undertaken detailed discussions in Australia and the United States in relation to the B-21 Raider as a potential capability option for Australia. In light of our strategic circumstances and the approach to Defence strategy and capability development outlined in this Review, we do not consider the B-21 to be a suitable option for consideration for acquisition,” it stated.

The Defence Strategic Review also calls for a reform of the Capability Acquisition and Sustainment Group’s acquisition policy, labeling it as unsuitable for Australia’s current strategic circumstances. The group falls under the purview of the Defence Department.

Instead, in what appears to be a major blow for the Australian defense industry, the document calls for the rapid acquisition of more capabilities via a “sole source or off-the-shelf procurement” mechanism.

While applauding the forward-looking aspect of the review, Tim Dore, who serves as acting CEO of the defense industry trade association Defence Teaming Centre, warned of problems ahead for local business .

“We understand why the significant overhaul was needed. We are in a considerably different geopolitical environment than in 2020, and the DTC appreciates the government requesting the review early on in their tenure,” Dore said.

“However, there are numerous businesses who have lost out on work and who have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in investments they had made to upskill their workforce and equipment based on Defence’s previous requirements, only to see the Government’s direction once again change. Neither the taxpayer nor the warfighter benefits from this indecision,” Dore added.

The Australian government has agreed — at least in principle — to all of the report’s recommendations. Further details regarding defense funding are expected to come in the federal budget on May 9.

Nigel Pittaway is the Australia correspondent for Defense News.

澳大利亚墨尔本——澳大利亚国防部长周一发布了期待已久的《国防战略评估》公开版，该评估旨在为应对中国在印太地区的影响力提供蓝图。

这份长达110页的报告呼吁对澳大利亚国防军的结构进行根本性改革，以应对现代和新兴威胁，但这样做却牺牲了能力建设和基础基础设施项目。虽然一些项目只会延期或“重新调整范围”，但另一些项目将被彻底取消。

此次审查由澳大利亚前国防军司令安格斯·休斯顿和前国防部长斯蒂芬·史密斯历时数月完成。文件称，这是“二战以来对国防态势和结构进行的最雄心勃勃的审查”。

“大规模的常规和非常规军事集结，却缺乏战略保障，导致我们地区面临数十年来最严峻的形势，”国防部长理查德·马尔斯在报告引言中指出。“再加上日益紧张的局势和冲突预警时间的缩短，军事升级或误判的风险正在上升。”

2023年4月24日，澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯在国防战略评估报告发布后的新闻发布会上向媒体发表讲话。（图片来源：Lukas Coch/AAP，经美联社授权）

报告还指出，随着大国之间战略竞争的回归，美国不再是该地区的单极领导者。

报告指出：“因此，80年来，我们首次必须回归根本，从根本原则出发，思考如何管理和规避我们国家目前面临的最高战略风险：即该地区爆发重大冲突的可能性，这将直接威胁到我们的国家利益。从战略角度来看，我们或许已经进入了印太地区的一个关键时期。因此，我们应对2020年国防战略更新报告中指出的战略预警时间缩短问题的能力变得更加凸显。”

2020年的那份文件承认，澳大利亚传统上认为国家有十年预警时间准备应对冲突的观点已不再适用。最新的《国防战略评估》更进一步，呼吁制定一项分三个阶段的战略，首先是2025年之前的两年，用于处理“必须优先处理和紧急解决的问题”。第二个阶段是2026年至2030年，第三个阶段则是“2031年以后”。

《国防战略评估报告》还建议政府每两年发布一次新版本，以取代过去零星发布的国防白皮书。

此外，它还呼吁改变过去 50 年来一直坚持的澳大利亚国防军方战略，转而建立一支更加一体化的部队，能够应对快速变化的风险。

评估报告指出：“澳大利亚国防军目前的兵力结构基于一种‘均衡兵力’模式，这种模式反映的是过去时代的遗留问题，无法充分应对我们新的战略环境。澳大利亚国防军需要一支更加专注的部队，能够应对我们面临的风险。这支部队的组建应以全面评估为依据，并能够实施拒止战略。”

此次评估首次明确提出需要加强澳大利亚空军基地的防御能力，并确保燃料供应免受来自澳大利亚北部的攻击。过去，这些需求只是泛泛而谈；目前澳大利亚尚无任何加固的防御设施。

该评估报告要求军方运用多项“关键能力”，其中包括：

能够在水面和水下执行情报、监视和侦察任务的海上无人机。

增强型综合目标瞄准能力。

适用于所有作战领域的增强型远程精确打击武器。

具备两栖作战能力的陆上合成兵种作战系统。

用于海上拒止作战的全域海上能力。

联网的远征空中作战能力。

增强型综合防空反导系统。

联合远征战区后勤系统。

战区指挥控制网络。

一个由北方基地组成的网络，用于后勤支援、拒止和威慑。

澳大利亚皇家海军根据“奥克斯”（AUKUS）框架采购核动力攻击潜艇的计划，以及政府持续推进的海军造船战略，都是新版国防战略评估的关键组成部分。澳大利亚、英国和美国之间的“奥克斯”协议旨在加强盟国间的信息和技术共享。

报告指出：“采购常规武器核动力潜艇将彻底改变海军的作战能力。核动力潜艇是实施拒止战略以及提供反潜作战和远程打击选项的关键资产。”

审查报告指出，政府应加大力度获取远程精确打击武器，包括最近宣布的购买美国制造的高机动性火箭炮系统的计划，并支持共同开发和购买美国制造的精确打击导弹的计划。

2023年3月31日，在菲律宾新怡诗夏省劳尔镇，美菲联军使用高机动性火箭炮系统进行实弹射击。（Ezra Acayan/Getty Images）

报告还指出，军方应该加快陆军的近岸作战机动计划。

“国防部必须迅速加快并扩大陆军近岸机动舰艇（中型和重型登陆艇）和远程火力（陆基海上打击）项目。这将要求陆军重新部署关键能力，”该文件指出。“必须立即加快陆军8710项目第一阶段和第二阶段——陆军近岸机动舰艇（中型和重型登陆艇）的采购，并扩大该能力的范围。否则，只有有限数量的陆基主要作战能力可以投射到近海。”

与此同时，为了资助军队的未来发展模式，一些开支将被削减。其中最关键的一项是确认陆军“陆地400”第三阶段履带式步兵战车项目——预计价值250亿澳元（170亿美元）——将从450辆削减至129辆。新增的129辆仅够一个机械化营进行近岸机动作战。

根据审查计划，陆军“陆地 8116”防护移动火力项目的第二阶段——旨在采购 30 门由韩国韩华公司制造的 AS9 自行榴弹炮和 K10 弹药补给车——也将被取消。

此外，该评估报告要求在今年第三季度末之前对澳大利亚皇家海军的水面作战舰艇进行独立分析。这可能会影响该海军建造九艘“猎人”级护卫舰和通常不配备武器的“阿拉弗拉”级近海巡逻舰的计划。

2020年，在澳大利亚珀斯，近海巡逻舰“皮尔巴拉”号举行了龙骨铺设仪式。该舰是阿拉弗拉级舰艇之一。（图片来源：Paul Kane/Getty Images）

该报告还驳斥了澳大利亚皇家空军采购少量诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司制造的 B-21“突袭者”战略轰炸机的建议。

“本次评估已在澳大利亚和美国就B-21‘突袭者’轰炸机作为澳大利亚潜在能力选项进行了详细讨论。鉴于我们的战略形势以及本次评估中概述的国防战略和能力发展方针，我们认为B-21并非合适的采购选项。”声明中写道。

国防战略评估报告还呼吁改革能力采办与保障小组的采办政策，认为其不适用于澳大利亚当前的战略环境。该小组隶属于国防部。

相反，这份文件似乎对澳大利亚国防工业造成了重大打击，它呼吁通过“单一来源或现成采购”机制迅速获取更多能力。

国防工业贸易协会国防合作中心代理首席执行官蒂姆·多尔在赞扬此次审查的前瞻性的同时，也警告说当地企业未来将面临一些问题。

“我们理解为什么需要进行重大改革。我们现在所处的地缘政治环境与2020年大不相同，DTC感谢政府在其任期初期就提出审查要求，”多尔说。

“然而，许多企业因此失去了工作机会，并且损失了数十万美元的投资，这些投资原本是按照国防部之前的要求来提升员工技能和设备，结果却眼睁睁地看着政府的方向再次改变。这种犹豫不决既没有让纳税人受益，也没有让作战人员受益，”多尔补充道。

澳大利亚政府原则上同意了报告中的所有建议。有关国防经费的更多细节预计将在5月9日公布的联邦预算案中揭晓。

Nigel Pittaway 是《国防新闻》驻澳大利亚记者。