Brazil’s presidential race: Three key takeaways from the first round

Flavio Bolsonaro beat polling expectations as Brazil’s right gained ground, setting up October 25 run-off with Lula.

This combination of pictures shows Brazil's president and re-election candidate for the Workers' Party (PT), Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (left), and Brazil's right-wing senator and presidential candidate for the Liberal Party (PL), Flavio Bolsonaro, during the presidential election on October 4, 2026 [AFP]

Brazil’s closely watched presidential election is heading to a second round between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, prolonging a deeply polarised race with major implications for the country and the wider region.

Brazil’s electoral court confirmed on Sunday that the two candidates will advance to a run-off on October 25 after neither won the majority needed to secure the presidency outright, with Bolsonaro leading at 55.8 million votes to Lula’s almost 53.2 million.

list 1 of 4 Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro close campaigns ahead of critical election

list 2 of 4 Will Brazil’s Lula halt the right-wing wave sweeping Latin America?

list 3 of 4 Polls close in Brazil’s polarised election pitting Lula against Bolsonaro

list 4 of 4 Lula and Bolsonaro vote in Brazil’s polarised presidential election

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term after a political career spanning nearly five decades.

Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and is trying to return his father’s right-wing movement to power, even as the former president serves a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

The election comes at a pivotal time for Latin America’s largest economy. Brazilians are grappling with concerns over crime and the cost of living, while the country faces an increasingly tense relationship with the United States. The vote is also being closely watched across a region that has shifted sharply to the right in a series of recent elections.

While a second round was widely expected, the first-round result did not play out quite as pollsters had predicted.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the election so far.

Brazil is heading for another Lula-Bolsonaro run-off

With nearly 99 percent of votes reported, Bolsonaro had about 47 percent of valid votes, compared with 44.9 percent for Lula. Neither reached the 50 percent threshold needed to win in the first round.

That sets up another Lula-Bolsonaro showdown, four years after Lula narrowly defeated former President Jair Bolsonaro. This time, he will face the former president’s eldest son.

The race could be extremely close, as polling ahead of Sunday’s vote suggested Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro were roughly tied in a potential run-off.

That puts voters who backed one of the other 10 candidates in the first round at the centre of the fight for the presidency over the next three weeks.

Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who together received about 5.3 million votes, have previously said they will not endorse either candidate in the run-off.

Flavio Bolsonaro did better than polls suggested

Most polls leading up to election day predicted the race would be pushed into the second round, but had Lula finishing the first round ahead of Bolsonaro.

Instead, Bolsonaro emerged with a lead of two percentage points, raising questions about why the final polls underestimated his support.

On Sunday, Bolsonaro said the results showed that Brazilians want change.

Analysts told the Reuters news agency that Bolsonaro may have benefitted from “protest votes” from people who may have preferred another candidate but saw defeating Lula as the priority. Many had been expected to shift their support to Bolsonaro only in a second round, meaning this could have consequences for his support in three weeks.

“The protest vote foreshadows what is to come in the run-off,” political analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters. “While this should benefit Flavio Bolsonaro now, his growth potential in the second round drops precisely because that support has already been front-loaded.”

After the results came in, Lula said the votes were “unexpected” but that he would come back stronger in the run-off.

“I admit, I was convinced I would win in the first round. The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people,” the 80-year-old said.

The right had a strong night in Congress, too

Bolsonaro’s surprising performance in the first round was part of a broader show of strength for Brazil’s right.

Right-wing parties, led by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL), were performing strongly in both houses of Congress, with the PL on track to emerge as the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies and making gains in the Senate.

This included victories for other members of the Bolsonaro family , including former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, Flavio’s stepmother, who won a Senate seat in the Federal District, her first elected office.

His brother, Carlos Bolsonaro, was elected to the Senate in Santa Catarina.

The results show that the political movement built around former President Jair Bolsonaro – known as “bolsonarista” – remains a powerful electoral force, even with the former president barred from running himself.

“The fact that far-right candidates for the legislature have exceeded all expectations suggests a deeper popular grounding for the bolsonarista project than many expected,” Andre Pagliarini, an assistant professor of history and international studies at Louisiana State University and author of a book on Lula, told Al Jazeera.

“Millions of Brazilians right now evidently feel the right best reflects their values and vision for the future,” he added.

The congressional results matter beyond election night, too. Both houses were already dominated by conservative lawmakers, and a stronger right-wing presence could make it even harder for Lula to push through his agenda if he wins another term.

A Bolsonaro victory, meanwhile, could give him more room to pursue his own priorities, including his pledge to seek an amnesty for his father.

弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗的民调结果超出预期，巴西右翼势力不断壮大，两人将于10月25日进行决选。

这组照片显示的是巴西总统、劳工党（PT）候选人路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（左）和巴西右翼参议员、自由党（PL）总统候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗在2026年10月4日总统选举期间的合影。[法新社]

备受关注的巴西总统选举将进入第二轮角逐，左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦和右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗将再次对决，这场高度两极分化的竞选将持续下去，对巴西乃至整个地区都具有重大影响。

巴西选举法院周日确认，由于两名候选人均未获得直接当选总统所需的多数票，因此他们将进入10月25日的第二轮投票。博索纳罗获得5580万张选票，卢拉获得近5320万张选票。

巴西总统卢拉和总统博索纳罗在关键选举前结束竞选活动（共4条，此为第1条）

列表 2/4：巴西的卢拉能否阻止席卷拉丁美洲的右翼浪潮？

巴西两极分化的总统选举投票结束（共4个投票中第3个），卢拉与博索纳罗展开角逐

巴西总统选举中，卢拉和博索纳罗的投票情况（共4条记录，此为第4条）

现年 80 岁的卢拉正在寻求第四个任期，但并非连续任期，他的政治生涯已持续近五十年。

45岁的博尔索纳罗是前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的长子，他正试图让其父的右翼运动重新掌权，尽管其父因在2022年大选失败后策划政变而被判处27年监禁。

此次选举正值拉丁美洲最大经济体巴西的关键时刻。巴西民众正努力应对犯罪和生活成本高企的担忧，同时，该国与美国的关系也日益紧张。此外，由于拉丁美洲在近期的一系列选举中政治倾向急剧右倾，此次选举也备受关注。

虽然人们普遍预期会有第二轮投票，但第一轮投票的结果并没有完全按照民调机构的预测进行。

以下是本次选举至今的一些主要结论。

巴西又将迎来卢拉和博索纳罗之间的第二轮较量。

在已统计的近99%的选票中，博索纳罗获得了约47%的有效选票，而卢拉的有效选票为44.9%。两人均未达到首轮胜选所需的50%的门槛。

这使得卢拉与博尔索纳罗之间将再次展开对决，四年前卢拉曾以微弱优势击败前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗。这一次，他将面对前总统的长子。

这场竞选可能会非常胶着，因为周日投票前的民调显示，卢拉和弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗在可能的第二轮投票中势均力敌。

这使得在第一轮投票中支持其他 10 位候选人之一的选民，在接下来的三周里，成为总统选举斗争的中心。

罗纳尔多·卡亚多和雷南·桑托斯此前曾表示，他们不会在决选中支持任何一位候选人，两人共获得了约 530 万张选票。

弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的表现比民调预测的要好。

选举日前的大多数民调都预测，这场选举将进入第二轮，但卢拉将在第一轮投票中领先于博索纳罗。

然而，博索纳罗最终以两个百分点的领先优势胜出，这引发了人们对最终民调为何低估了他的支持率的质疑。

周日，博索纳罗表示，选举结果表明巴西人民渴望变革。

分析人士告诉路透社，博索纳罗可能受益于一些“抗议选票”，这些选票来自那些原本可能更倾向于其他候选人，但将击败卢拉视为首要任务的选民。许多人原本预计会在第二轮投票中才转而支持博索纳罗，这意味着这可能会影响他三周后的支持率。

政治分析家拉斐尔·法韦蒂告诉路透社：“抗议性投票预示着决选的走向。虽然这目前对弗拉维奥·博索纳罗有利，但他在第二轮选举中的增长潜力恰恰会下降，因为这些支持已经集中在前期。”

结果出来后，卢拉表示，投票结果“出乎意料”，但他会在第二轮投票中强势回归。

“我承认，我确信我会在第一轮就赢。比赛即将开始。我们进入了加时赛。在加时赛中，我们将赢得巴西人民的胜利，”这位80岁的老人说道。

右翼在国会也表现出色。

博索纳罗在第一轮比赛中的惊人表现，是巴西右翼势力更广泛展现实力的一部分。

以博索纳罗的自由党（PL）为首的右翼政党在国会两院表现强劲，自由党有望成为众议院最大的力量，并在参议院取得进展。

这其中包括博尔索纳罗家族其他成员的胜利，包括前第一夫人米歇尔·博尔索纳罗（弗拉维奥的继母），她赢得了联邦区参议员席位，这是她首次当选的公职。

他的兄弟卡洛斯·博尔索纳罗当选为圣卡塔琳娜州参议员。

结果显示，围绕前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗建立的政治运动——被称为“博尔索纳罗主义者”——仍然是一股强大的选举力量，即使这位前总统被禁止亲自参选。

“极右翼候选人在立法机构中的表现超出了所有人的预期，这表明博尔索纳里主义的纲领比许多人预期的更有民众基础，”路易斯安那州立大学历史与国际研究助理教授、卢拉传记作者安德烈·帕利亚里尼告诉半岛电视台。

“显然，目前数百万巴西人认为，右翼最能体现他们的价值观和对未来的愿景，”他补充道。

国会选举结果的影响远不止于选举之夜。两院此前均由保守派议员把持，如果卢拉连任，右翼势力进一步增强可能会使他推行其政策议程更加困难。

与此同时，博索纳罗的胜利可能会让他有更多空间去追求自己的优先事项，包括他承诺为其父亲寻求特赦。