Key takeaways as Brazil heads to presidential runoff that could reshape Latin America

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Brazil is heading for another Lula-Bolsonaro showdown. But this time it is Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son Flávio who stands between leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and another term in power.

A Bolsonaro victory would push the region further towards the right, hand US President Donald Trump a powerful ideological ally in its largest country and potentially strengthen Washington’s hand as it seeks to counter China’s influence across the hemisphere.

For Lula, 80, the runoff vote leaves one of Latin America’s most prominent left-wing leaders fighting for what is likely will be last term if he wins.

Together, Lula and Bolsonaro accounted for more than 92% of the votes, underscoring the strong grip of the Lula and Bolsonaro camps on Brazilian politics.

But neither secured the 50% needed to avoid a runoff, now set for October 25.

The situation now resembles that of 2022, but Bolsanaro performed better than his father did in the first round four years ago.

The crucial battleground was the Southeast, where nearly 40% of the electorate lives. There, Flávio won São Paulo and Minas Gerais.

His victory in Minas Gerais carries particular symbolic weight: the state has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1989 when Brazil held its first direct presidential election after military rule.

The result suggests Bolsonaro, who exceeded poll projections, has done more than simply inherit his father’s political movement. He may have expanded it.

With a campaign focused on crime and the economy, he secured nearly four percentage points more than his father in the first round in 2022. He leaned heavily on his father’s image while also seeking to present himself as a more moderate figure.

For Lula, the result raises an uncomfortable question. Can his political legacy and record in office still deliver an electoral majority?

Minas Gerais helps explain his predicament. He received 43.21% there, well below the 48.3% won in the first round of 2022. Nor did he achieve the lead margin his campaign had hoped for in the Northeast, his main stronghold.

Brian Snyder/Reuters

The runoff will depend on who can capture voters who backed eliminated candidates and whether either side can mobilize Brazilians who stayed home on Sunday.

The eliminated candidates collectively accounted for 7.82% of votes.

Most of those votes went to candidates on the center-right or right, potentially giving Bolsonaro another advantage.

But abstention is another potentially decisive reservoir of votes. About 21% of eligible voters did not cast a ballot, and mobilizing them could tip the scales in a tight election.

Polls leading up to Sunday showed the two candidates tied in runoff scenarios.

Lula must now overcome a first-round deficit amid voter concerns over purchasing power and crime, an issue Bolsonaro made central to his campaign, as well as controversies surrounding key figures in scandals seen as close to the president.

Bolsonaro, meanwhile, enters the runoff with another advantage: political momentum beyond the presidential race. His party and allies won numerous Senate seats as well as governorships in key states, potentially giving a Bolsonaro presidency significant legislative and regional support.

An even more polarized runoff is expected. Lula will likely frame the vote as a referendum on democracy and while Bolsanaro will focus on his tough-on-crime rhetoric and allegations of corruption against Lula and his party.

Few outside Brazil have more riding on the runoff than Trump. The US president openly endorsed Bolsonaro earlier in the campaign and maintains a tense relationship with Lula’s government.

He has been notably quieter in recent weeks but there is little ambiguity over which outcome would better suit Washington.

Since Trump returned to the White House, no left-wing candidate has won a presidential election in Latin America. Now, Washington hopes to bring about an ideological shift in Brazil, the region’s biggest economy , that will help it fully impose its “Donroe Doctrine” and contain China’s influence.

“Trump had already welcomed Bolsonaro to the Oval Office at the White House and has imposed punitive tariffs on Brazil, the sole motivation for which appears to be political,” international relations expert Farid Kahhat, a professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru, told CNN.

“The fact that he hasn’t spoken out publicly again doesn’t change the fact that he already did so in the past and that he has made public policy decisions in favor of the Bolsonaros,” he added.

For Kahhat, Trump’s recent restraint may itself be strategic.

“They’ve already decided it was better to keep a lower profile,” he said.

There is good reason for caution. Open intervention by Trump could have the opposite effect in the world’s tenth-largest economy, which is far less dependent on Washington than some of its neighbors.

“They’ve noticed that in Brazil, [interference] might not work the same way as it does in Honduras or Colombia,” Kahhat said.

Lula has also used the banner of national sovereignty as a campaign weapon.

Political scientist Manuel Alcántara Sáez, director of the International Center for Political and Social Studies (CIEPS-AIP) in Panama, said another Trump intervention could end up helping Lula.

“It would be more beneficial for Lula because there is a stronger sentiment against US interference,” he said.

Trump isn’t the only regional ally to have backed Bolsonaro. Argentine President Javier Milei supported him and attended his campaign launch, where he hurled insults at Lula.

“Since then, I haven’t noticed Milei getting so involved in the campaign,” Alexander Main, director of international policy at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told CNN. “I think maybe they felt it wasn’t helping that much.”

But Bolsonaro’s strong showing quickly drew celebration from the Latin American right. Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella who won in June with Trump’s backing said on X: “May God have mercy on our brother country as He did on Colombia. True change is defeating the left.”

Milei followed by congratulating Bolsonaro, saying: “The American continent is made up of citizens who want to live in freedom.”

Bolsonaro’s performance appears, at first glance, to fit neatly into Latin America’s broader rightward turn. But analysts caution that something more complicated may be happening.

With strategies based on antagonism and the “cancellation” of the opponent, policy proposals and promises “matter very little” in convincing undecided voters, Alcántara Sáez said.

Beyond the committed bases, “the rest of the electorate is driven by other kinds of impulses, including fatigue and despair at seeing, on one side, an 80-year-old candidate and, on the other, a candidate who is the son of someone in prison, convicted of leading an attempted coup,” he said.

That fatigue echoes a broader pattern across Latin America: incumbent parties struggling to survive voter frustration.

Kahhat said that although “this is a time of crisis for the left throughout the region,” the string of right-wing victories should not necessarily be read as a wholesale ideological conversion.

“It depends on the context, but it is not necessarily a rejection of left-wing movements as such, but rather of those in power at a time of great economic instability,” he said.

Brazil’s runoff will therefore test two competing explanations for the political transformation sweeping the region: whether Latin America is undergoing a durable shift to the right, or whether frustrated voters are simply punishing whoever happens to be in power.

For Alcántara Sáez, there is another dividing line that may prove just as important: how Latin American governments position themselves toward Trump.

Maira Erlich/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Brazil election heads to runoff after campaign dominated by crime, corruption and Trump

“Lula would clearly represent someone who would never in his life go along with the ‘Shield of the Americas’ initiative, whereas Bolsonaro would,” he said, referring to a political and security initiative floated by Trump.

“So, rather than a shift to the right, I think this pro-US or anti-US. dimension is what we should be looking at more closely.”

That makes October 25 about considerably more than who governs Brazil. The result could help determine whether the region’s largest power acts as a counterweight to Trump’s vision for the hemisphere, or becomes one of its most important allies.

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巴西即将再次上演卢拉与博索纳罗之间的对决。但这一次，阻挡左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦连任的，是博索纳罗的长子弗拉维奥。

博索纳罗的胜利将使该地区进一步右倾，为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在其最大的国家提供一个强大的意识形态盟友，并有可能增强华盛顿在寻求对抗中国在整个西半球的影响力时所拥有的筹码。

对于 80 岁的卢拉来说，决选投票意味着这位拉丁美洲最杰出的左翼领导人之一将为他的最后一个任期而战，如果他获胜的话。

卢拉和博尔索纳罗共获得超过 92% 的选票，凸显了卢拉和博尔索纳罗阵营对巴西政坛的强大影响力。

但两人均未获得避免决选所需的 50% 选票，决选日期定于 10 月 25 日。

现在的情况与 2022 年类似，但博尔索纳罗在第一轮的表现比他父亲四年前的表现要好。

关键的战场是东南部地区，那里居住着近40%的选民。弗拉维奥在那里赢得了圣保罗州和米纳斯吉拉斯州。

他在米纳斯吉拉斯州的胜利具有特殊的象征意义：自 1989 年巴西结束军政府统治举行首次总统直接选举以来，该州在每一次总统选举中都投票支持获胜者。

结果表明，博索纳罗的得票率超出了民调预期，他不仅继承了父亲的政治事业，还可能将其发展壮大。

他的竞选活动主要集中在犯罪和经济方面，在2022年的第一轮投票中，他的得票率比他的父亲高出近4个百分点。他很大程度上依靠他父亲的形象，同时也努力将自己塑造成一个更加温和的形象。

对卢拉而言，这一结果提出了一个棘手的问题：他的政治遗产和执政记录还能为他带来多数席位吗？

米纳斯吉拉斯州的选举结果有助于解释他的困境。他在该州仅获得43.21%的选票，远低于2022年第一轮选举中赢得的48.3%。此外，在他主要的票仓——东北部地区，他也未能达到竞选团队预期的领先优势。

布莱恩·斯奈德/路透社

决选结果将取决于谁能争取到那些支持被淘汰候选人的选民，以及双方能否动员周日待在家里的巴西选民。

被淘汰的候选人总共获得了7.82%的选票。

这些选票大多投给了中右翼或右翼候选人，这可能给博索纳罗带来另一个优势。

但弃权票也是一股可能起到决定性作用的选票力量。约有21%的合格选民没有投票，动员他们投票可能会在势均力敌的选举中左右最终结果。

周日之前的民调显示，如果进行第二轮投票，两名候选人的支持率不相上下。

卢拉现在必须克服首轮投票的劣势，选民们担心购买力和犯罪问题，而博索纳罗将犯罪问题作为其竞选的核心议题，此外，围绕着被认为与总统关系密切的丑闻中的关键人物的争议也加剧了选情。

与此同时，博索纳罗进入决选还拥有另一项优势：超越总统竞选的政治势头。他的政党和盟友赢得了众多参议院席位以及关键州的州长职位，这可能为博索纳罗的总统任期带来重要的立法和地区支持。

预计第二轮投票将更加两极分化。卢拉可能会将此次投票定位为对民主的一次全民公投，而博索纳罗则会着重强调其强硬的打击犯罪言论，并指控卢拉及其政党存在腐败行为。

除了巴西以外，很少有人比特朗普更看好这场决选。这位美国总统在竞选初期就公开支持博索纳罗，并且与卢拉政府的关系一直很紧张。

他最近几周明显安静了许多，但对于哪种结果更符合华盛顿的利益，几乎没有什么模棱两可的说法。

自特朗普重返白宫以来，拉丁美洲没有一位左翼候选人赢得过总统大选。如今，华盛顿希望在拉丁美洲最大的经济体巴西促成意识形态转变，从而帮助其全面推行“唐罗主义”，遏制中国的影响力。

“特朗普已经邀请博索纳罗到白宫椭圆形办公室，并对巴西征收惩罚性关税，其唯一动机似乎就是政治性的，”秘鲁天主教大学教授、国际关系专家法里德·卡哈特告诉CNN。

“他虽然没有再次公开表态，但这并不能改变他过去曾这样做过，以及他曾做出有利于博索纳罗家族的公共政策决定的事实，”他补充道。

卡哈特认为，特朗普近期的克制本身可能就是一种策略。

他说：“他们已经决定最好保持低调。”

谨慎行事是有充分理由的。特朗普的公开干预可能会对这个世界第十大经济体产生相反的效果，而这个经济体对华盛顿的依赖程度远低于其一些邻国。

卡哈特说：“他们注意到，在巴西，（干预）可能不像在洪都拉斯或哥伦比亚那样奏效。”

卢拉也曾将国家主权作为竞选武器。

巴拿马国际政治和社会研究中心 (CIEPS-AIP) 主任、政治学家曼努埃尔·阿尔坎塔拉·萨埃斯表示，特朗普的再次干预最终可能会帮助卢拉。

他说：“这对卢拉更有利，因为民众对美国干涉的反对情绪更为强烈。”

特朗普并非唯一支持博索纳罗的地区盟友。阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱也支持他，并出席了他的竞选启动仪式，在仪式上他对卢拉进行了辱骂。

“从那以后，我就没怎么注意到米莱参与竞选活动了，”经济与政策研究中心国际政策主任亚历山大·梅因告诉CNN。“我想他们可能觉得这样做帮助不大。”

但博索纳罗的强劲表现很快赢得了拉丁美洲右翼的欢呼。在特朗普的支持下于六月赢得大选的哥伦比亚总统阿韦拉多·德拉埃斯普里利亚在X网站上表示：“愿上帝像怜悯哥伦比亚一样怜悯我们的兄弟国家。真正的变革在于击败左翼。”

米莱随后向博索纳罗表示祝贺，并说道：“美洲大陆的人民渴望生活在自由之中。”

乍看之下，博索纳罗的表现似乎与拉丁美洲整体的右倾趋势完美契合。但分析人士警告说，事情可能远比这复杂。

阿尔坎塔拉·萨埃斯表示，基于对抗和“取消”对手的策略，政策提案和承诺在说服尚未决定投票意向的选民方面“作用甚微”。

他说：“除了坚定的支持者之外，其余选民还受到其他各种因素的驱使，包括看到一边是 80 岁高龄的候选人，另一边是因领导未遂政变而被定罪入狱的人的儿子，他们感到疲惫和绝望。”

这种疲态反映了拉丁美洲更广泛的趋势：执政党正努力在选民的失望情绪中生存下来。

卡哈特表示，虽然“目前整个地区的左翼正处于危机时期”，但右翼的一系列胜利并不一定意味着彻底的意识形态转变。

他说：“这取决于具体情况，但这并不一定意味着反对左翼运动本身，而是反对在经济极度不稳定时期掌权的人。”

因此，巴西的决选将检验席卷该地区的政治变革的两种相互竞争的解释：拉丁美洲是否正在经历持久的右倾，或者沮丧的选民是否只是在惩罚任何恰好掌权的人。

对于阿尔坎塔拉·萨埃斯来说，还有另一条分界线可能同样重要：拉丁美洲各国政府如何看待特朗普。

Maira Erlich/彭博社/盖蒂图片社

巴西大选进入第二轮投票，此前竞选活动充斥着犯罪、腐败和特朗普等问题。

“卢拉显然代表着一个这辈子都不会支持‘美洲之盾’倡议的人，而博索纳罗则会支持，”他说道，这里指的是特朗普提出的一项政治和安全倡议。

“所以，与其关注政治立场向右倾斜，我认为我们应该更密切地关注这种亲美或反美的倾向。”

这使得10月25日的意义远不止于谁执掌巴西。选举结果可能决定，这个地区最大的强国究竟会成为特朗普西半球战略的制衡力量，还是会成为其最重要的盟友之一。