A tropical system is likely in the Gulf this week despite El Niño. Here are the latest scenarios

A tropical depression or storm has a high chance to form in the Gulf this week and breathe life into the tail end of an Atlantic hurricane season squashed by El Niño .

The Gulf is often a hot bed for late-season storms. Right on cue, chances are increasing for an area of stormy weather festering in the Gulf’s Bay of Campeche to spin up into one by the second half of this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The next storm name in the Atlantic is Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs).

Exactly where the storm could track or how strong it could get is still up in the air.

Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, primed to generate and help strengthen any system. But this potential storm’s overall strength could be capped by less favorable conditions in the atmosphere.

No matter its final fate, heavy rain is a concern on the Gulf Coast and in other parts of the South by late this week.

Scenario 1: A tropical depression or storm forms, moves north, but then weakens or even falls apart before reaching the US Gulf Coast. Heavy rain would be the only significant threat in this outcome.

Scenario 2: A tropical system fails to form, but moisture in the atmosphere still fuels downpours in the states bordering the central and eastern Gulf.

Scenario 3: Tropical Storm Isaias forms, heads north and makes landfall on the Gulf Coast, bringing strong winds and storm surge on top of heavy rain. This scenario would be the most impactful outcome, although Isaias would still likely stay below hurricane strength.

The first two scenarios are most likely, but all three are possible until a storm actually forms.

As this year has already shown, it doesn’t take hurricane-strength system to cause significant impacts, particularly in a warming world that’s making tropical systems wetter.

Tropical storms Arthur and Edouard didn’t last long, but their heavy rain resulted in significant flash flooding and water rescues. Parts of Louisiana and Mississippi took the brunt of Arthur’s flooding while Edouard dropped over 20 inches of rain in eastern Texas.

Parts of Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Louisiana and Mississippi are most at risk of heavy rain from this system. The downpours could start to ramp up along the coast as soon as Friday and then continue to soak the region while creeping farther inland through the weekend.

Several inches of rain could fall, but it’s too soon to pinpoint which locations might see the most and could experience flash flooding.

Four named storms — that’s tropical storm strength or greater — typically form in October and November, but some hurricane seasons can have a stronger finish while others quiet down.

The last few years illustrate this year-to-year ebb and flow. Seven storms formed during October and November in 2024, but just two formed during the same time in 2023.

Late-season storms tend to form closer to the United States, including in the Gulf, Caribbean and off the Southeast coast, which makes them more likely to impact land.

While there are usually fewer storms, they can still be destructive.

Last year, Category 5 Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica in October’s final week.

Hurricane Michael roared into the Florida Panhandle on October 10, 2018, becoming the latest landfalling Category 5 on record in the US. And Hurricane Sandy may be the most notorious of all: It morphed into a hybrid superstorm in late-October 2012 and walloped the East Coast.

Super El Niño’s grip on the Atlantic basin means a repeat of notorious late-season hurricanes is less likely this year. Its storm-killing wind is the main reason this season could go hurricane-free for the first time in reliable records .

本周墨西哥湾极有可能形成热带低气压或风暴，为受厄尔尼诺现象影响而减弱的大西洋飓风季尾声注入新的活力。

墨西哥湾通常是晚季风暴的温床。正如预期的那样，据美国国家飓风中心称，墨西哥湾坎佩切湾一处正在酝酿的风暴天气区域，在本周后半段发展成飓风的可能性正在增加。

大西洋下一个风暴的名字是伊萨亚斯（Isaias）。

这场风暴究竟会向哪个方向移动，强度又会有多大，目前还不得而知。

墨西哥湾海水温度创下同期历史新高，极易形成并增强任何风暴系统。但大气中一些不利条件可能会限制这场潜在风暴的整体强度。

无论最终结果如何，本周晚些时候墨西哥湾沿岸和南部其他地区都将面临强降雨的威胁。

情景一：热带低气压或风暴形成，向北移动，但在到达美国墨西哥湾沿岸之前减弱甚至消散。在这种情况下，强降雨将是唯一的重大威胁。

情景 2：热带气旋未能形成，但大气中的水汽仍然导致墨西哥湾中部和东部沿岸各州出现暴雨。

情景三：热带风暴伊萨亚斯形成，向北移动并在墨西哥湾沿岸登陆，带来强风、风暴潮和暴雨。这种情况的影响最大，但伊萨亚斯的强度可能仍低于飓风级别。

前两种情况最有可能发生，但在风暴真正形成之前，三种情况都有可能。

正如今年已经表明的那样，即使不是飓风级别的系统，也会造成重大影响，尤其是在全球变暖导致热带系统降雨量增加的情况下。

热带风暴亚瑟和爱德华持续时间虽短，但带来的强降雨引发了严重的突发性洪水，并导致多起水上救援行动。路易斯安那州和密西西比州部分地区受亚瑟洪水的影响最为严重，而爱德华则在德克萨斯州东部降下了超过20英寸的降雨量。

阿拉巴马州、佐治亚州、佛罗里达州狭长地带、路易斯安那州东南部和密西西比州的部分地区最容易受到此次天气系统带来的强降雨影响。沿海地区的降雨最早可能从周五开始增强，并在周末持续侵袭该地区，同时向内陆蔓延。

可能会有几英寸的降雨，但现在确定哪些地区降雨量最大，哪些地区可能会发生突发性洪水还为时过早。

10 月和 11 月通常会形成四个命名风暴——即热带风暴强度或更高——但有些飓风季的尾声可能会更猛烈，而有些飓风季则会平静下来。

过去几年的数据体现了这种逐年波动的趋势。2024年10月和11月形成了7场风暴，而2023年同期只形成了2场。

季末风暴往往在美国附近形成，包括墨西哥湾、加勒比海和东南沿海地区，这使得它们更有可能影响陆地。

虽然风暴通常较少，但仍然会造成破坏。

去年十月的最后一周，五级飓风梅丽莎重创牙买加。

2018年10月10日，飓风迈克尔席卷佛罗里达州狭长地带，成为美国有记录以来登陆时间最晚的五级飓风。而飓风桑迪或许是最臭名昭著的：它在2012年10月下旬演变成混合型超级风暴，重创了美国东海岸。

超级厄尔尼诺现象对大西洋盆地的控制意味着今年再次出现臭名昭著的季末飓风的可能性较小。其带来的足以摧毁风暴的强风是​​今年飓风季可能在可靠记录中首次无飓风发生的主要原因。