Yemeni gov’t forces aim for Sanaa, but Houthi defeat will be a challenge

Yemeni government forces claim strategic advances near Bab al-Mandeb strait amid a major anti-Houthi offensive.

Yemeni government soldiers gather at the Jabal Han front, west of the city of Taiz, on October 3, 2026 [Ahmad al-Basha/AFP]

Yemeni government forces have claimed advances along the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait after the head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, ⁠Rashad al-Alimi, announced the start of a major offensive to capture all territories lost to the Houthis.

On Monday, forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognised government claimed the advance and headed north along the Red Sea coast, and said they had retaken the town of Dhubab and port city of Mocha. They also earlier said that they had launched a “strategic offensive” on the Houthi-held capital Sanaa.

list 1 of 3 Photos: Yemen’s hospitals struggle to operate amid persistent power outages

list 2 of 3 Yemen government forces report recapture of Mocha from Houthis

list 3 of 3 Yemen war: What’s the latest, as government forces claim advances?

Government forces are also attempting to reverse gains made by the Houthis in recent days around the key city of Taiz, in southwestern Yemen.

The Houthis, an Iranian-allied movement, have held the capital Sanaa since September 2014, before making other territorial gains in northern and western Yemen.

After four years of relative calm, fighting flared once again in July, before a Houthi offensive in early September saw the group make sweeping gains along the Red Sea coast, including the port city of Mocha and Bab al-Mandeb.

The Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia, is now attempting to regain that lost territory, but still faces divisions within the anti-Houthi camp.

“The [internationally recognised government’s] ground forces are big on paper and quite sizeable, but scattered across a bunch of fronts and running on old pre-war gear, so they can hold their lines but [currently] can’t push the Houthis out of their mountain strongholds,” Raiman al-Hamdani, a London-based Yemen analyst, told Al Jazeera.

The most recent fighting hints at a new escalation in the conflict, al-Hamdani said.

“This all seems to be moving into a more dangerous phase, and while the appetite for a full-scale war may exist among elements of the leadership on both sides, the reality is more complicated,” al-Hamdani said.

“In the longer term, the more plausible outcome is not the military destruction of one side by the other, but a negotiated and imperfect political settlement in which the Houthis retain substantial influence in northern Yemen, Saudi Arabia obtains greater security guarantees, and Yemen’s competing political and military factions are forced into some form of power-sharing arrangement,” al-Hamdani added.

“The problem is that reaching that point may require another period of serious escalation before any settlement.”

Government setting the agenda

Ahmed al-Shalafi, Al Jazeera’s Yemen correspondent and a specialist in Yemeni affairs, reported that the recent moves by the Yemeni government show “complete operational and political integration”.

“These moves lend a serious and decisive dimension to the announced battle to liberate Sanaa and restore the state,” he said.

Al-Shalafi said the government’s offensive is intended to start the confrontation on their own terms, rather than allowing the Houthis to dictate the stages of the war.

And even if the United States and Iran agree a deal to end their ongoing conflict, which began in late February, it might not seriously impact the fighting in Yemen.

Nicholas Brumfield, an independent Yemen analyst, told Al Jazeera that he believes the balance of power has not yet shifted in favour of either side.

“The Houthis are going to keep pushing in Taiz and Marib,” he said. “[Government] forces have been better on the defensive in Taiz … But the Houthis have been able to push in all directions at once in a way [government] forces just aren’t.”

However, Saeed Thabet, the head of Al Jazeera’s Yemen bureau, said the government’s advances, coming soon after al-Alimi’s announcement of the beginning of a new large-scale offensive against the Houthis, were a way of demonstrating that the government was serious about reversing Houthi gains.

“The military expansion is a message that the government is determined to implement what it says in its statements,” Thabet said. “In the past, a lot of Yemenis would not take these statements seriously.”

“The government forces will now attempt to … control Taiz’s Red Sea coast,” he added. “It will also attempt to contain the Houthi infiltration into some villages and areas in Taiz governorate, especially in al-Shamayatayn and al-Waziya districts. Sources there have told us that government security forces are sweeping those areas and capturing some [Houthi] armed men.”

也门政府军声称在曼德海峡附近取得战略进展，并对胡塞武装发动了大规模攻势。

2026年10月3日，也门政府军士兵在塔伊兹市以西的贾巴尔汉前线集结。[艾哈迈德·巴沙/法新社]

也门政府军声称在战略要地曼德海峡沿线取得进展。此前，也门总统领导委员会主席拉沙德·阿里米宣布发起大规模攻势，以夺回所有被胡塞武装占领的领土。

周一，效忠也门国际公认政府的武装力量宣称取得进展，并沿红海沿岸向北推进，称已收复杜巴卜镇和港口城市摩卡。此前，他们还表示已对胡塞武装控制的首都萨那发动“战略攻势”。

图1/3：也门医院在持续停电中艰难运转

也门政府军报告称已从胡塞武装手中夺回摩卡，这是三份名单中的第二份。

也门战争（共3条）：政府军声称取得进展，最新进展如何？（列表3/3）

政府军也正试图扭转胡塞武装近日在也门西南部重要城市塔伊兹附近取得的进展。

胡塞武装是伊朗支持的武装组织，自 2014 年 9 月以来一直控制着首都萨那，之后又在也门北部和西部取得了其他领土扩张。

在经历了四年的相对平静之后，7 月份战斗再次爆发，随后胡塞武装在 9 月初发动攻势，在红海沿岸取得了全面进展，包括港口城市摩卡和曼德海峡。

在沙特阿拉伯的支持下，也门政府目前正试图收复失去的领土，但反胡塞阵营内部仍然存在分歧。

“（国际公认的）也门政府的地面部队纸面上规模庞大，但分散在多个战线上，而且装备陈旧，所以他们可以守住阵地，但（目前）无法将胡塞武装赶出他们的山区据点，”常驻伦敦的也门问题分析师雷曼·哈姆达尼告诉半岛电视台。

哈姆达尼表示，最近的战斗预示着冲突将进一步升级。

“这一切似乎正在进入一个更加危险的阶段，虽然双方领导层中可能存在发动全面战争的意愿，但现实情况要复杂得多，”哈姆达尼说。

“从长远来看，更有可能的结果不是一方军事上摧毁另一方，而是通过谈判达成一项不完美的政治解决方案，其中胡塞武装在也门北部保持相当大的影响力，沙特阿拉伯获得更大的安全保障，也门相互竞争的政治和军事派别被迫接受某种形式的权力分享安排，”哈姆达尼补充道。

“问题在于，要达到那个地步，可能需要经历一段局势严重升级的时期，才能最终达成和解。”

政府制定议程

半岛电视台也门记者、也门事务专家艾哈迈德·沙拉菲报道称，也门政府最近的举措表明“完全的运作和政治一体化”。

他说：“这些举措为宣布解放萨那、恢复国家政权的战斗赋予了严肃而决定性的意义。”

沙拉菲表示，政府军的攻势旨在按照自己的方式开始对抗，而不是让胡塞武装来决定战争的进程。

即使美国和伊朗达成协议结束始于二月底的持续冲突，也可能不会对也门的战事产生严重影响。

也门独立分析人士尼古拉斯·布鲁姆菲尔德告诉半岛电视台，他认为力量平衡尚未向任何一方倾斜。

他说：“胡塞武装会继续在塔伊兹和马里卜推进。政府军在塔伊兹的防御做得更好……但胡塞武装能够同时向各个方向推进，而政府军却做不到。”

然而，半岛电视台也门分社社长赛义德·塔比特表示，政府取得的进展，是在阿利米宣布对胡塞武装发起新的大规模攻势后不久取得的，这表明政府认真对待扭转胡塞武装取得的战果。

塔比特说：“此次军事扩张表明，政府决心兑现其声明中的承诺。过去，很多也门人并不把这些声明当回事。”

他补充说：“政府军现在将试图控制塔伊兹的红海沿岸地区。政府军还将努力阻止胡塞武装渗透到塔伊兹省的一些村庄和地区，特别是沙马亚泰因和瓦齐亚地区。当地消息人士告诉我们，政府安全部队正在这些地区进行清剿，并抓获了一些胡塞武装人员。”