Trump backed Iran into a corner. The regime isn’t blinking

Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/AP

The US-led blockade and sanctions against Iran are working. Their success could determine the next phase of the war.

Iran’s remaining oil for sale is nearly exhausted. Its crude production has been cut in half. The regime’s primary source of revenue is drying up. Hyperinflation has left the economy in ruins.

Meanwhile, the flow of oil from other Gulf nations through the Strait of Hormuz, over which Iran had once wielded considerable influence, has effectively returned to normal .

But Iran shows no signs of folding yet. The regime isn’t willing to give any concessions on its nuclear program, and negotiations on freedom of transit through the Strait of Hormuz have repeatedly stalled.

Why, when Iran’s government acknowledges its economy faces a historic catastrophe , is the regime refusing to give in?

Iran has been here before. Five decades of operating successfully through punishing sanctions have taught the Iranian regime a thing or two about how to cope. Its brutal and ongoing crackdown on protests has quelled a public revolt. And the high cost of America’s ongoing operation has made the status quo politically toxic for Iran’s enemy.

That’s why the regime may be in a far better position than it seems.

Iran shipped zero oil from its ports in September.

That marked the first month that Iran loaded no crude onto tankers since maritime data tracking service Kpler began monitoring Iranian exports in 2013. Iran’s last successful crude loading was August 25.

Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

Meanwhile, Iran is practically out of crude to sell. Oil outside the US blockade zone has plunged to 45 million barrels, down from 100 million in July, according to Kpler. If Iran continues to find buyers at its current rate, it could run out crude to sell by the end of October.

At home, Iran isn’t faring much better. With nowhere to sell newly drilled oil, its onshore stockpiles are nearing all-time highs, reaching 70 million barrels, close to its pandemic peak, according to Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler. Iranian oil production has fallen to half its prewar level – about 2 million barrels per day, just enough to support its domestic demand.

US sanctions have taken a toll. Iran’s economy shrank at an annual rate of 10% between March and June, according to Iranian government data. Its annual inflation rate surged to 90% last month and has averaged 73% over the past year – the highest since World War II.

The situation has become so dire that when Iranians get cash, they immediately spend it on necessities because their money will immediately lose s value if they don’t, noted Adnan Mazarei, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The government cannot finance itself, so it just prints money, exacerbating inflation. And sanctions have severely curtailed imports, leading to widespread factory closures and rising unemployment.

Iran’s current economic situation is among the most dire in its history, acknowledged Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the country’s Supreme National Security Council, according to a report in Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency on Saturday.

Still, Iran appears far from giving in.

“The economy is doing very badly,” Mazarei said. “But there isn’t a mechanical point at which you can say the patient’s body temperature has reached a critical level and he’s going to pass away.”

In part, Iran’s political system and ruthless crackdown on protest has given it some insulation from the economic destruction imposed by the blockade and sanctions. And Iran appears to be getting around some of those restrictions.

“People are growing more miserable, but the regime has incredible patience and tolerance for the suffering of its people,” Mazarei noted. “And Iran has a long history of beating sanctions.”

Iran’s options for evading sanctions appear more limited than ever. The Trump administration’s Operation Economic Outcast has become so effective that some governments that had largely ignored US sanctions in the past have begun taking those restrictions extremely seriously.

For example, dozens of Iranian oil tankers whose crew fear capture by the US and its Western allies have been left stranded. Anchored off the cost of Sri Lanka, they have been refused humanitarian aid despite multiple distress calls, according to Charlie Brown, senior adviser for United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit that tracks and reports on Iranian sanctions violations. Those details were first reported in the Wall Street Journal .

Yet Iran’s regime has developed sophisticated networks to combat and evade sanctions. Despite the tightening of the vice, this conflict appears no different: Iran’s lack of willingness to bend suggests sanctions evasion is still taking place, said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler.

“The Iranian regime is really good at managing their country without resources,” she said. “I don’t think Iran is at a tipping point. So they must be receiving funds from somewhere.”

Where there’s smoke, there may be fire, but detecting sanctions evasion is tricky.

Iran may be transporting oil over land to Khazakstan and Russia, or by water via the Caspian Sea, suggested Brown, who noted Iran has routinely disguised its exported oil as Iraqi, and it has transferred oil to other nations’ ships to get crude out of the strait. And the regime has trustees in many surrounding nations who secretively conduct transactions for the regime in the form of US dollars, cryptocurrency or other means to avoid detection, according to Brown.

Among the most intriguing possibilities, Brouhard said, is that Gulf nations exporting oil are surreptitiously paying Iran fees in exchange for safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz – even as they’re secured by US military escorts. No hard evidence of such an arrangement exists, but Mazarei and Brown also said they heard rumblings that oil producers were delivering Iran a security toll to ensure safe passage.

Iran has continued to attack some tankers shuttling oil through the strait – but those could be ships that refused to pay a toll, Brouhard suggested.

Whether or not Gulf nations are paying Iran directly, the cost of maintaining the status quo and forcing oil through the Strait of Hormuz has become enormously expensive for everyone involved.

The US Navy needs to devote significant resources to the blockade and its escort program . That’s costing the US taxpayer tens of billions of dollars all while fuel prices have remained historically high .

Oil producers are paying through the nose to commission tankers to get crude to its destination. Between labor, fuel, insurance and other costs, a Very Large Crude Carrier now costs $1.6 million a day – 24 times the 2025 cost, according to Clarksons Shipping and Maritime Services.

Scott Olson/Getty Images

“Somebody’s getting paid,” Brouhard said. “Right now, the toll is being paid to insurance companies. And you and I are paying for it.”

That unsustainable status quo could be why Iran has been patiently waiting out the Trump administration. It may have lost its leverage in the oil market, and its economy has been battered, but Iran may be able to outlast the United States’ willingness to stay the (expensive) course.

Put another way: “We’ll be on the cusp of war for a long time, ” Mazarei said.

CNN’s Matt Egan contributed to this report.

阿米尔侯赛因·霍尔古伊/ISNA/美联社

美国主导的对伊朗的封锁和制裁正在奏效。它们的成败可能决定战争的下一阶段。

伊朗剩余的石油供应几乎枯竭。其原油产量已减半。政权的主要收入来源正在枯竭。恶性通货膨胀已使经济崩溃。

与此同时，伊朗曾经对霍尔木兹海峡施加相当大的影响力，而其他海湾国家的石油输送已基本恢复正常。

但伊朗目前仍未表现出任何妥协的迹象。该政权不愿在核计划上做出任何让步，而关于霍尔木兹海峡过境自由的谈判也一再陷入僵局。

伊朗政府承认其经济面临历史性灾难，为什么该政权拒绝让步？

伊朗并非首次面临这种情况。过去五十年，伊朗政权凭借严厉的制裁成功运作，积累了丰富的应对经验。其对示威活动的残酷镇压已成功平息了民众的反抗。而美国持续行动的高昂代价，也使得现状对伊朗的敌人而言变得极其不利。

这就是为什么该政权的处境可能比表面看起来要好得多。

伊朗9月份从其港口运送的石油数量为零。

这是自海事数据跟踪服务机构Kpler于2013年开始监测伊朗原油出口以来，伊朗首次在一个月内没有向油轮装载原油。伊朗上一次成功装载原油是在8月25日。

Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

与此同时，伊朗的原油库存实际上已经枯竭。据克普勒公司（Kpler）的数据显示，美国封锁区以外的伊朗原油库存已暴跌至4500万桶，远低于7月份的1亿桶。如果伊朗继续以目前的速度寻找买家，那么到10月底，其原油库存可能就会耗尽。

伊朗国内的情况也好不到哪里去。据Kpler大宗商品研究主管马特·史密斯称，由于新开采的石油无处可销，伊朗陆上石油库存已接近历史最高水平，达到7000万桶，接近疫情期间的峰值。伊朗石油产量已降至战前水平的一半——约200万桶/日，仅够满足国内需求。

美国制裁已造成严重后果。据伊朗政府数据显示，今年3月至6月，伊朗经济按年率计算萎缩了10%。上个月，伊朗年通货膨胀率飙升至90%，过去一年平均通胀率高达73%，为二战以来最高水平。

彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员阿德南·马扎雷指出，伊朗的情况已经变得非常严峻，伊朗人一旦拿到现金，就会立即将其用于必需品，因为如果不这样做，他们的钱就会立即贬值。

政府无法自行筹集资金，只能通过印钞来加剧通货膨胀。而制裁严重限制了进口，导致工厂大面积倒闭和失业率上升。

据伊朗半官方的塔斯尼姆通讯社周六报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书莫森·雷扎伊承认，伊朗目前的经济形势是其历史上最严峻的形势之一。

然而，伊朗似乎远没有屈服的迹象。

“经济形势非常糟糕，”马扎雷说。“但是，你无法通过机械的判断标准来宣布病人的体温已经达到危急水平，他即将去世。”

伊朗的政治体制及其对示威活动的残酷镇压，在一定程度上使其免受封锁和制裁带来的经济破坏。而且，伊朗似乎正在设法绕过其中一些限制。

“民众的生活日益悲惨，但伊朗政权对人民的苦难却表现出惊人的耐心和容忍度，”马扎雷伊指出。“而且，伊朗有着长期以来规避制裁的历史。”

伊朗规避制裁的选择似乎比以往任何时候都更加有限。特朗普政府的“经济排斥行动”已取得显著成效，以至于一些过去对美国制裁置之不理的政府现在也开始极其认真地对待这些限制。

例如，数十艘伊朗油轮因船员担心被美国及其西方盟友扣押而滞留在斯里兰卡海岸附近。据追踪和报道伊朗违反制裁行为的非营利组织“联合反对伊朗核计划”（United Against Nuclear Iran）的高级顾问查理·布朗（Charlie Brown）称，这些油轮尽管多次发出求救信号，却仍被拒绝提供人道主义援助。这些细节最初由《华尔街日报》报道。

然而，伊朗政权已经发展出复杂的网络来对抗和规避制裁。尽管制裁力度加大，但这场冲突似乎并无不同：伊朗不愿妥协表明，规避制裁的行为仍在继续，Kpler政策与地缘政治风险主管米歇尔·布鲁哈德表示。

“伊朗政权在资源匮乏的情况下也能很好地治理国家，”她说。“我认为伊朗还没有到危急关头。所以他们肯定从某个地方获得了资金。”

无风不起浪，但要发现规避制裁的行为却并非易事。

布朗指出，伊朗可能正通过陆路向哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯运输石油，或者通过里海水路运输。他还提到，伊朗经常将出口石油伪装成伊拉克石油，并曾将石油转运到其他国家的船只上，以便将原油运出海峡。布朗还表示，伊朗政权在许多周边国家设有代理人，这些代理人以美元、加密货币或其他方式秘密地为伊朗政权进行交易，以避免被发现。

布鲁哈德表示，最引人关注的可能性之一是，海湾石油出口国可能暗中向伊朗支付费用，以换取安全通过霍尔木兹海峡——即便它们有美国军方护航。目前尚无确凿证据证明存在这种安排，但马扎雷和布朗也表示，他们听到了一些传言，称石油生产国向伊朗支付安全费以确保安全通行。

布劳哈德表示，伊朗继续袭击一些途经海峡运送石油的油轮——但这些可能是拒绝支付通行费的船只。

无论海湾国家是否直接向伊朗支付费用，维持现状并强迫石油通过霍尔木兹海峡的成本对所有相关方来说都变得极其昂贵。

美国海军需要投入大量资源用于封锁和护航计划。这每年要花费美国纳税人数百亿美元，而与此同时，燃油价格却居高不下。

石油生产商为了将原油运往目的地，不得不支付高昂的费用来租用油轮。据克拉克森航运海事服务公司（Clarksons Shipping and Maritime Services）的数据显示，包括人工、燃料、保险和其他成本在内，一艘超大型原油运输船（VLCC）目前的日租金高达160万美元——是2025年成本的24倍。

Scott Olson/Getty Images

“有人从中获利，”布鲁哈德说。“现在，损失都进了保险公司的口袋。而你我都在为此买单。”

这种不可持续的现状或许正是伊朗一直耐心等待特朗普政府下台的原因。尽管伊朗在石油市场上的影响力可能已经丧失，经济也遭受重创，但它或许能够熬过美国继续推行（代价高昂的）政策的最后阶段。

换句话说：“我们将长期处于战争边缘，”马扎雷说道。

CNN的马特·伊根对本报道亦有贡献。