Ousting a Republican from a Kamala Harris district may not be as easy as it sounds

Jessica Koscielniak/Reuters

Mike Lawler is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in Congress this election cycle, one of only three representing a district that Kamala Harris won in 2024.

But in a year when political headwinds seem to be blowing in Democrats’ favor, combat veteran and Biden administration alum Cait Conley may still be facing an uphill battle to oust the two-term incumbent from his seat in New York’s Hudson Valley.

While active registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 17th District by more than 70,000, according to the New York State Board of Elections, Lawler has shown crossover appeal as he has sought to highlight his bipartisan bona fides and willingness to break with President Donald Trump. That includes several endorsements from across the aisle, including Maine Rep. Jared Golden and local Democratic politicians.

Senior Republicans feel confident in Lawler’s ability to maintain his seat, and House GOP leaders believe that he is one of their strongest battleground candidates and can defy the national environment.

In a sign of the high stakes, the showdown has become one of the most expensive House races in the country, with Republicans and Democrats funneling more than $40 million cumulatively into ads tying Lawler to Trump and scrutinizing Conley’s connections to AI companies.

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But Conley still believes she can flip the seat, which could prove consequential as Democrats look to retake the House for Trump’s final two years in power.

“The energy that we are feeling in every corner of this district is incredible,” she told CNN during a campaign event on Sunday. “Where people are recognizing the stakes of this November and how this is a fight for working families who are getting screwed by the policies of this administration, enabled by Mike Lawler. ”

Conley, however, is still introducing herself to voters as a first-time candidate, while Lawler benefits from nearly four years of incumbency and the ensuing name recognition.

In recent months, she’s tried to excite voters by campaigning with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and highlighting endorsements from former Rep. Gabby Giffords and New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also join her on the campaign trail in the coming weeks, according to Jeffries spokesperson Justin Chermol.

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National Democrats are also invested in the race, with an operative for House Democrats calling the seat a top priority for the party. House Majority PAC, the super PAC linked to Jeffries, has already spent over $1.8 million in cable advertising in the race so far with further reservations in the New York City media market, HMP communications director CJ Warnke said.

But what it could come down to, Democratic strategist Doug Forand says, is face time with voters.

“Her challenge is to continue to work the retail side of it, you know, and that district has a long and deep history of really aggressive retail politics,” he said.

Linda, a Bedford resident who voted for Harris in 2024, is still on the fence about voting in this year’s midterm election. “Other than the governors, I don’t know enough about the other people running yet,” she told CNN. But she said that her grandson, who is a Republican, is supporting Conley. “He just likes what he knows about her,” she added.

Mt. Kisco resident and small business owner Steve Nadler, who also supported Harris in the last presidential election, feels similarly. “I’ll definitely do my own research prior to submitting a vote,” he said.

Lawler, for his part, says he hasn’t been bothered by national attention on the race and is confident he can keep the seat.

“I think the work I’ve done has put the spotlight on this race,” he said during a stop in Pleasantville, New York. “Ultimately, I don’t feel any uphill battle or additional pressure from it, I live for this.”

Despite Trump’s deep unpopularity, Lawler’s local relationships and pitch as a moderate Republican willing to work across the aisle still appear to hold sway with voters.

While cost of living was a top concern for voters who spoke with CNN, few Republicans seemed to fault the Trump ally for it, despite Conley’s efforts to tie them together.

“It’s a little hard when you’re a widow, you’re on Social Security, you’re retired. You know, I spend all my money paying bills,” said 77-year-old Susan Sciascia of Pleasantville. While she feels the strain on her finances, she plans to vote for Lawler next month and says he understands what Americans are experiencing.

“He’s a family man. He’s got kids. He’s got a wife. He’s in it too.” Sciascia added. “He knows what he’s going through, so he knows what we’re going through.”

Conley has also made affordability a central focus in her campaign, but national Democrats want her to push on this issue harder in her messaging in the final weeks of the campaign, a high-ranking aide told CNN.

While Lawler has sought to highlight areas where he’s willing to break with Trump, such as in negotiations on state and local taxes, he’s also worked to tie Conley, who is running as a moderate, to the further left contingencies within her own party.

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During a debate last week, Lawler accused New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani , a democratic socialist and staunch critic of Israel’s government, of antisemitism, and demanded Conley denounce him.

Conley said she condemned antisemitism from anyone and noted that she has disagreements with some democratic socialists within her party, before turning the subject to Trump’s impacts on the district.

Democrat who’s broken with his party before endorses Republican in battleground race

But just a train ride away from New York City, the 17th District has a large Jewish population and the Democratic Party’s ongoing debate over Israel could play a role in the House race.

Lawler has highlighted the endorsements of two local Democratic Jewish officials, New Castle Town Councilwoman Ally Chemtob and Montebello Deputy Mayor Stacy Caridi, who cited the congressman’s efforts to fight antisemitism.

“My support for Mike is personal, because when I look beyond party labels to someone I know and trust, I see someone who cares about the safety and well-being of my children,” Chemtob said in a campaign press release .

Conley, however, has stressed her support for Israel and said that she would have voted against cutting military aid to the country.

Asked if she wants Mamdani, or another New York City progressive, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, to join her on the campaign trail this fall, Conley told CNN, “Right now, I’m just focused on voters getting to know me and meeting them everywhere that they are.”

That focus was on display on an overcast Sunday last weekend, as she spoke to volunteers armed with lawn signs at a canvassing event in Armonk, New York, and acknowledged the tightness of the race.

“I promise you this is going to be a fight where every door knocked, every call made, every vote is going to matter, and it is a fight that I know I can win, but I cannot win alone,” Conley said.

CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere and Sarah Ferris contributed to this report.

杰西卡·科斯切尔尼亚克/路透社

迈克·劳勒是本届国会选举周期中最容易被击败的共和党人之一，也是仅有的三位代表卡马拉·哈里斯在 2024 年赢得的选区的共和党人之一。

但在今年政治逆风似乎对民主党有利的情况下，退伍老兵、拜登政府前官员凯特·康利可能仍将面临一场艰苦的战斗，才能将这位连任两届的现任议员从纽约哈德逊河谷的席位上拉下来。

根据纽约州选举委员会的数据，虽然第17选区注册的活跃民主党选民比共和党选民多出7万多人，但劳勒展现出了跨党派的吸引力，他一直努力强调自己具有两党合作精神，并愿意与唐纳德·特朗普总统决裂。这包括来自对立党派的多位人士的支持，例如缅因州众议员贾里德·戈尔登和当地民主党政客。

资深共和党人对劳勒保住席位的能力充满信心，众议院共和党领导人认为他是他们最强劲的摇摆州候选人之一，能够逆全国形势而动。

从这场竞争的高风险程度来看，这场对决已成为美国历史上最昂贵的众议院竞选之一，共和党人和民主党人累计投入超过 4000 万美元用于广告宣传，将劳勒与特朗普联系起来，并仔细审查康利与人工智能公司的关系。

通往2026年中期选举的道路现在开始

每周，亚伦·布莱克都会以犀利的分析，拨开政治迷雾，深入剖析可能决定国会控制权的选情、候选人和趋势。订阅《20/26 视野》周刊，了解今年中期选举的最新动态。

但康利仍然相信她可以赢得这个席位，这可能会产生重大影响，因为民主党人希望在特朗普执政的最后两年重新夺回众议院的控制权。

“我们在这个选区的每个角落都能感受到难以置信的热情，”她在周日的一次竞选活动中告诉CNN。“人们都意识到今年11月选举的重要性，以及这场斗争是为了那些被本届政府的政策坑害的工薪家庭，而这些政策的推手正是迈克·劳勒。”

然而，康利仍然以初次参选者的身份向选民介绍自己，而劳勒则受益于近四年的在任经历和由此产生的知名度。

近几个月来，她试图通过与前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格和民主党参议员马克·凯利一起竞选，并重点宣传前众议员加布里埃尔·吉福兹和新泽西州州长米基·谢里尔的支持，来激发选民的热情。据杰弗里斯的发言人贾斯汀·切尔莫尔称，众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯也将在未来几周加入她的竞选活动。

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全国民主党人也对这场竞选投入了大量精力，众议院民主党的一位工作人员称该席位是该党的首要任务。与杰弗里斯有关联的超级政治行动委员会“众议院多数党政治行动委员会”（House Majority PAC，简称HMP）的通讯主管CJ Warnke表示，该委员会迄今已在有线电视广告上花费超过180万美元，并计划在纽约市媒体市场进一步投放广告。

但民主党策略师道格·福兰德表示，最终的关键可能在于与选民面对面交流的时间。

“她面临的挑战是继续在零售方面努力，你知道，而该地区有着悠久而深厚的激进零售政治历史，”他说。

琳达是贝德福德居民，2024年她投票给了哈里斯，但今年中期选举她还在犹豫是否投票。“除了州长之外，我对其他候选人还不太了解，”她告诉CNN。但她表示，她的孙子是共和党人，支持康利。“他只是喜欢他所了解的康利，”她补充道。

基斯科山居民、小企业主史蒂夫·纳德勒也持类似观点，他上次总统选举也支持哈里斯。“我肯定会在投票前做好调查研究，”他说。

劳勒则表示，他并未受到全国对这场竞选的关注，并有信心保住席位。

“我认为我所做的工作让这场比赛受到了更多关注，”他在纽约州普莱森特维尔停留期间说道。“最终，我并不觉得这是一场艰苦的战斗，也没有感受到额外的压力，我为之而活。”

尽管特朗普的支持率极低，但劳勒在当地的人脉关系以及他作为一位愿意跨党派合作的温和派共和党人的形象，似乎仍然对选民具有影响力。

尽管生活成本是接受 CNN 采访的选民最关心的问题，但尽管康利努力将共和党人和特朗普的盟友联系起来，似乎很少有共和党人因此责怪这位特朗普的盟友。

“当你是个寡妇，靠社保金生活，而且已经退休了，日子就有点难过了。你知道，我所有的钱都用来还账了。”77岁的普莱森特维尔居民苏珊·西亚西亚说道。尽管她感到经济压力很大，但她计划下个月投票给劳勒，并表示他理解美国民众的处境。

“他是个顾家的男人。他有孩子，有妻子。他也感同身受。” 西亚西亚补充道，“他知道自己正在经历什么，所以他也知道我们正在经历什么。”

康利也把经济承受能力作为她竞选活动的核心重点，但一位高级助手告诉 CNN，全国民主党人希望她在竞选的最后几周加大力度宣传这个问题。

尽管劳勒一直试图强调他愿意与特朗普决裂的领域，例如在州和地方税收谈判方面，但他同时也努力将以温和派身份参选的康利与她所在政党内部更左翼的派系联系起来。

Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

在上周的一场辩论中，劳勒指责纽约市市长佐兰·马姆达尼（一位民主社会主义者，也是以色列政府的坚定批评者）有反犹主义倾向，并要求康利谴责他。

康利表示，她谴责任何人的反犹主义，并指出她与党内一些民主社会主义者存在分歧，之后她将话题转向了特朗普对该地区的影响。

曾与本党决裂的民主党人支持共和党候选人，角逐关键州的选举

但距离纽约市仅一趟火车之遥的第 17 选区拥有大量的犹太人口，民主党内关于以色列的持续辩论可能会对众议院选举产生影响。

劳勒特别强调了两位当地民主党犹太官员的支持，分别是新城堡镇议员艾莉·切姆托布和蒙特贝洛副市长斯泰西·卡里迪，她们都称赞了这位国会议员在打击反犹太主义方面所做的努力。

“我支持迈克是出于个人原因，因为当我抛开党派标签，看到一个我认识和信任的人时，我看到的是一个关心我孩子的安全和福祉的人，”切姆托布在一份竞选新闻稿中说道。

然而，康利强调了她对以色列的支持，并表示她会投票反对削减对以色列的军事援助。

当被问及是否希望马姆达尼或另一位纽约市进步派人士、众议员亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯在今年秋季的竞选活动中与她一起亮相时，康利告诉 CNN：“目前，我只专注于让选民了解我，并在他们所在的地方与他们见面。”

上周末一个阴沉的星期天，她在纽约州阿蒙克的一次拉票活动中与手持草坪标语的志愿者们交谈，展现了她专注的一面，并承认选情胶着。

康利说：“我向你们保证，这将是一场每一扇敲门、每一通电话、每一张选票都至关重要的战斗，我知道我可以赢得这场战斗，但我不能独自赢得这场战斗。”

CNN的Edward-Isaac Dovere和Sarah Ferris对本报道亦有贡献。