The biggest signs that Trump and the GOP are panicking about the midterms

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Republicans have had reason to worry about the 2026 midterm elections for a while now.

But there are growing signs that their fears are spilling over into panic — and that the GOP, including President Donald Trump, senses things could get really bad.

That doesn’t mean things will turn out that way. And there are plenty of examples of parties overzealously slamming the panic button late in the campaign.

But the Trump-era GOP has generally been a rather sanguine political party, and what we’ve seen in recent days and weeks is anything but.

Trump has insisted Republicans will do well and that the many polls suggesting otherwise are wrong. But his actions increasingly point in a different direction:

On Monday, he pulled a rare 180 on his highly controversial government-funded political ads, saying they would now be paid for with super PAC funds.

Over the weekend, he started encouraging Republicans to vote by mail , after previously claiming that method was riddled with fraud.

He’s repeatedly lashed out, including dropping the f-word on a Time magazine interviewer last week and angrily defending his poll numbers to a CNN reporter on Monday.

He has taken to blaming the GOP’s problems on poor messaging (although not from himself).

He’s spent time campaigning in a series of very red states: Alabama (which he won by 31 points in 2024), Oklahoma (Trump +34) and Nebraska (Trump +20) — the last of which he visited on Monday.

And on Monday night, he attacked the Democratic Senate nominee in another state that shouldn’t be on the map: South Carolina (Trump +18). He used an anti-transgender slur to go after Democrat Annie Andrews, who’s giving Sen. Darline Graham — whose appointment Trump pushed for — a tougher-than-expected race.

The GOP was already playing defense in five states Trump won by between 11 and 16 points, with the most recent addition being Kansas — a state Trump won by 16 points two years ago and that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932 .

But adding Nebraska and especially South Carolina to the mix is particularly striking.

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And in case you thought Trump’s comments about South Carolina weren’t strategic, the GOP is sending $5 million to the Palmetto State to shore up Graham. Trump allies have also told CNN they are worried about the senator’s polling.

One of the most telling signs of broader GOP panic? Republicans feeling compelled to distance themselves from Trump even in these red areas — whether calling for an end to the Iran war, overhauling their websites to erase mentions of the president, or declining to campaign with Trump.

On Monday, the Houston Chronicle reported that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott won’t appear with Trump when the president visits San Antonio this week. Abbott’s campaign blamed scheduling conflicts, but these are the kinds of events GOP candidates would never have missed once upon a time, especially in a red state.

And indeed, many of the worst signs for the GOP are emanating from Texas.

There’s the awkward ad from Senate nominee Ken Paxton’s estranged wife (who has accused him of infidelity) in which she encourages people to vote Republican. There are the leaked audio clips in which Paxton is heard complaining about Trump and the national GOP hurting his campaign. And on Monday, GOP state Rep. Briscoe Cain posted on X: “ If the election were held tomorrow, all state wide races go blue .”

Just to underscore how stunning that would be, Democrats haven’t won any statewide race in Texas since 1994. And this isn’t some moderate Republican spouting off; this is a MAGA lawmaker who tried to help overturn the results of the 2020 election for Trump.

None of this means the GOP is doomed. While there are enough signs in the polling to cause the party to worry, Democrats’ path to the Senate majority still goes through those double-digit Trump states. That’s a high bar to clear.

And, we’ve seen before how parties can spend late money in lower-tier races that don’t wind up being particularly close. Back in 2020, Democrats spent some real money in Kansas , and the GOP sent money to bolster South Carolina ; Republicans wound up winning those states by 11 and 10 points, respectively. Even some Democrats are pretty circumspect about their chances in South Carolina this year.

But the increased desperation ahead of November 3 means it could be a long four weeks for the GOP.

Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images

共和党人早就有理由担心2026年中期选举了。

但越来越多的迹象表明，他们的恐惧正在演变成恐慌——而且包括唐纳德·特朗普总统在内的共和党人也意识到，情况可能会变得非常糟糕。

但这并不意味着事情一定会那样发展。而且，有很多例子表明，一些政党在竞选后期过度恐慌，反而弄巧成拙。

但特朗普时代的共和党总体上是一个相当乐观的政党，而我们最近几天和几周所看到的却恰恰相反。

特朗普一直坚称共和党人会取得好成绩，并表示许多民调结果相反都是错误的。但他的行动却越来越指向另一个方向：

周一，他罕见地改变了之前备受争议的政府资助政治广告的立场，表示这些广告现在将由超级政治行动委员会的资金支付。

周末期间，他开始鼓励共和党人通过邮寄方式投票，此前他曾声称这种方式充斥着舞弊。

他屡次发表激烈言论，包括上周对《时代》杂志采访者爆粗口，以及周一愤怒地向 CNN 记者捍卫自己的民调支持率。

他开始将共和党的问题归咎于糟糕的信息传递（尽管并非他自己的问题）。

他曾多次前往多个共和党占绝对优势的州进行竞选活动：阿拉巴马州（他在 2024 年以 31 个百分点的优势赢得了该州）、俄克拉荷马州（特朗普领先 34 个百分点）和内布拉斯加州（特朗普领先 20 个百分点）——他于周一访问了内布拉斯加州。

周一晚间，他又攻击了另一个本不该出现在选战版图上的州——南卡罗来纳州（特朗普领先18个百分点）的民主党参议员候选人。他使用反跨性别歧视的侮辱性词语攻击民主党候选人安妮·安德鲁斯，安德鲁斯给现任参议员达琳·格雷厄姆——特朗普力推的任命——带来了比预期更为激烈的竞争。

共和党已经在五个特朗普以 11 到 16 个百分点的优势获胜的州处于守势，最近新增的堪萨斯州——两年前特朗普以 16 个百分点的优势赢得了该州，而堪萨斯州自 1932 年以来就没有选出过民主党参议员。

但将内布拉斯加州，尤其是南卡罗来纳州也考虑在内，就显得格外引人注目了。

通往2026年中期选举的道路现在开始

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如果你认为特朗普关于南卡罗来纳州的言论并非出于策略考量，那么共和党正向该州拨款500万美元以支持格雷厄姆。特朗普的盟友也告诉CNN，他们对这位参议员的民调支持率感到担忧。

共和党内部普遍恐慌的最明显迹象之一是什么？即使在这些共和党传统票仓，共和党人也感到有必要与特朗普保持距离——无论是呼吁结束伊朗战争，还是彻底修改网站以删除提及总统的内容，亦或是拒绝与特朗普一起参加竞选活动。

周一，《休斯顿纪事报》报道称，德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特将不会在本周特朗普总统访问圣安东尼奥时与其一同露面。阿博特的竞选团队将原因归咎于日程冲突，但这类活动在过去是共和党候选人绝不会错过的，尤其是在一个传统共和党州。

事实上，对共和党而言最糟糕的许多迹象都来自德克萨斯州。

还有参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿分居妻子（她曾指控他出轨）发布的一则尴尬的广告，她在广告中鼓励人们投票给共和党。此外，还有帕克斯顿抱怨特朗普和共和党全国委员会损害其竞选活动的泄露录音。周一，共和党州众议员布里斯科·凯恩在X网站上发帖称：“如果明天举行选举，所有州级选举都将由民主党获胜。”

为了强调这将有多么令人震惊，需要指出的是，自 1994 年以来，民主党在德克萨斯州从未赢得过任何全州范围的选举。而且这并非某个温和派共和党人的胡言乱语；这是一位曾试图帮助特朗普推翻 2020 年大选结果的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）议员。

但这并不意味着共和党就此完蛋。尽管民调中的一些迹象足以令该党担忧，但民主党要想赢得参议院多数席位，仍然需要拿下那些支持特朗普的州。这无疑是一道难以逾越的障碍。

我们之前也看到过，政党如何在选情并不胶着的低级别选举中投入大量资金。2020年，民主党在堪萨斯州投入巨资，共和党则向南卡罗来纳州注资；最终，共和党分别以11个百分点和10个百分点的优势赢得了这两个州。甚至一些民主党人也对今年在南卡罗来纳州的胜算持谨慎态度。

但随着11月3日大选临近，共和党人日益紧张的处境意味着接下来的四周对他们来说可能会非常艰难。