Why is Trump threatening to strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain again, now?

As US targets oil tanker off Kharg island, Trump threatens one of the remaining parts of Iran’s nuclear complex.

A satellite view shows tunnel entrances at Pickaxe Mountain of the Natanz nuclear facility, near Natanz, Iran, on June 30, 2026 [Vantor/Handout via Reuters]

United States President Donald Trump says Washington may strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain “very soon”, in just the latest in a series of threats he has made against the heavily fortified underground site located next to the bombed-out Natanz enrichment complex.

Just hours after he made that threat, an Iranian oil tanker off Kharg Island was struck by four US missiles, according to Iranian news outlet Khabar Fouri. Kharg Island is the main hub for Iran’s oil exports, handling about 90 percent.

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Trump made the threat against Pickaxe Mountain as he was speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Friday, saying the US knows “everybody that’s moving at Pickaxe” and across Iran .

His remarks echoed a similar threat he made back in mid-July, when he stated on the Hugh Hewitt Show: “We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready … We’ll probably give Pickaxe a shot relatively soon.”

The latest threat comes more than six months into the war that the US and Israel launched on Iran on February 28, amid mixed messages about the war from the Trump administration.

On Friday, Trump sought to downplay the war in Iran, calling it “small potatoes”, while a day earlier, at a White House news briefing, Vice President JD Vance appeared to suggest the conflict had cooled and to shrug off an alleged US strike on a wedding in southern Iran with “ sometimes things happen “.

At a White House briefing this week, Vance said of the conflict with Iran that he “wouldn’t call it a war” and claimed there was “no active shooting right now”.

But the US and Iran have exchanged attacks this week, including a US hit close to Iran’s oil infrastructure on Kharg Island.

Meanwhile, talks related to Iran’s nuclear programme have remained in limbo since a 60-day negotiating window expired in mid-August without a deal.

Iran says it is not undertaking any work at the Natanz nuclear site.

Its Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters has warned that bombing the nearby mountain would amount to a renewal of war across the region, at a time when the Trump administration would prefer to keep the war contained before pivotal mid-term elections.

So why has Pickaxe Mountain become the latest focus of Trump’s threats – again?

What is Pickaxe Mountain?

Known in Iran as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, the site sits roughly 220km (140 miles) south of the capital Tehran, in Isfahan province, and just 2km (1.2 miles) from the Natanz enrichment plant.

US intelligence reports indicate that the facility has been excavated deep inside the mountain, beneath hundreds of metres of solid granite rock, to protect it from powerful bombs designed to penetrate bunkers.

The main chambers are thought to lie at least 100 metres (330ft) underground.

Some Western analysts have speculated that the mountain was intended to house an undeclared enrichment plant, a hedge against attacks on Iran’s known facilities.

The Institute for Science and International Security, which tracks the site by satellite, has assessed that it is still under construction and not yet operational.

However, Iran has always maintained that it is developing a nuclear power programme only, and does not have plans to build a nuclear weapon.

Why does Pickaxe Mountain matter?

Because it is intact.

Pickaxe Mountain was left alone during the US’s June 2025 strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan at the end of the 12-day Israel war on Iran, and has escaped the current war almost entirely; the Institute for Science and International Security has recorded only the destruction of a vehicle on a nearby spoil pile.

With Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base and enrichment halls at other sites damaged in the war, analysts see the tunnels as the most obvious place for Tehran to rebuild: For component production, assembly or enrichment of uranium.

The Wall Street Journal reported in July that Israel had passed Washington intelligence suggesting thousands of centrifuges had been moved inside the facility late last year, a claim the US has not confirmed.

Trump has been less alarmist than Israel.

Centrifuges only matter if there is uranium to put through them; the machines concentrate uranium gas, and without a supply of it they cannot produce anything.

How much damage has been done to Iran’s nuclear sites?

According to most estimates, a considerable amount.

The European Council on Foreign Relations estimates that the 2025 strikes likely destroyed many of the roughly 18,000 centrifuges then operating at Iran’s Natanz and Fordow facilities, along with several centrifuge production sites and Ardakan, Iran’s only yellowcake milling plant. Yellowcake is powdered uranium concentrate obtained from milled uranium ore.

Nearly 4,000 additional centrifuges were installed but idle at the time; however, they may have survived the strikes.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed further damage to the entrance buildings of Natanz’s underground enrichment plant in March 2026, although it detected no additional impact on the plant itself.

The Institute for Science and International Security reported in June that tunnel entrances at all three main sites remain sealed, that there is no evidence of any enrichment taking place, and that the centrifuge programme still appears to have been destroyed.

Didn’t Trump say Iran’s nuclear sites had already been destroyed?

Yes. After the June 2025 attacks, Trump said the three sites had been “completely and totally obliterated”.

However, just days later, a leaked preliminary US Defence Intelligence Agency assessment concluded that the sites had been significantly damaged but not destroyed, estimating that the strikes had set Iran’s nuclear programme back by less than six months.

The situation today remains unclear.

Iran is currently believed to be holding about 440kg (970lb) of uranium enriched to 60 percent . A 90-percent threshold of enriched uranium is needed to produce a nuclear weapon.

No inspector has entered the bombed sites, and Trump’s framing has shifted from “obliteration” to a promise to hit any site where Iran is “even thinking about nuclear”.

What do we know about Iran’s nuclear programme?

Less than at any point in two decades.

Just before the US-Israel attacks on Iran in June 2025, the IAEA verified about 10 tonnes of enriched uranium in total, including the 440kg stockpile enriched to 60 percent.

In theory, this amount of enriched uranium – should it be enriched to 90 percent – is enough to produce more than 10 nuclear warheads, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told Al Jazeera in early March. It is unclear where this stock may be, however.

Iran suspended cooperation with the agency after the strikes, and the IAEA now says it has no way to report on the size, location or composition of that stockpile, though it believes much of the 60-percent material is bottled up in tunnels at Isfahan.

On Friday, Trump claimed again that the US had prevented Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, arguing that Washington’s intervention had protected Israel and the wider Middle East.

Tehran insists the programme is peaceful, and has dismissed Washington’s focus on Pickaxe Mountain as a manufactured pretext for attacking it.

美国在哈尔格岛附近袭击油轮之际，特朗普威胁要摧毁伊朗核设施的剩余部分之一。

2026年6月30日，卫星图像显示了伊朗纳坦兹附近纳坦兹核设施皮卡克斯山的隧道入口。[Vantor/路透社供图]

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，华盛顿可能“很快”就会打击伊朗的“镐山”地下设施。这只是他针对这个位于被炸毁的纳坦兹浓缩铀综合设施旁边的戒备森严的地下设施发出的一系列威胁中的最新一次。

就在他发出威胁几个小时后，据伊朗新闻媒体“哈巴尔·富里”（Khabar Fouri）报道，一艘伊朗油轮在哈尔格岛附近海域遭到四枚美国导弹袭击。哈尔格岛是伊朗主要的石油出口枢纽，处理着伊朗约90%的石油出口。

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周五，特朗普在椭圆形办公室对记者发表讲话时，对皮卡克斯山发出了威胁，称美国知道“在皮卡克斯山和伊朗境内活动的每一个人”。

他的言论与他在7月中旬发表的类似威胁遥相呼应。当时他在休·休伊特秀节目中说道：“我们要拿下皮克克斯山。告诉伊朗人做好准备……我们可能很快就会对皮克克斯山发起进攻。”

最新的威胁是在美以两国于 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动战争六个多月后发出的，而特朗普政府对这场战争的态度也一直摇摆不定。

周五，特朗普试图淡化伊朗战争，称其为“小事一桩”。而就在一天前，在白宫新闻发布会上，副总统万斯似乎暗示冲突已经降温，并对美国涉嫌袭击伊朗南部一场婚礼一事轻描淡写地表示“有时候事情就是这样发生的”。

本周在白宫简报会上，万斯谈到与伊朗的冲突时表示，他“不会称之为战争”，并声称“目前没有发生枪击事件”。

但本周美国和伊朗发生了相互袭击，其中包括美国袭击了伊朗哈尔克岛附近的石油基础设施。

与此同时，与伊朗核计划相关的谈判自8月中旬60天的谈判窗口期结束以来一直处于停滞状态，但双方仍未达成协议。

伊朗方面表示，他们没有在纳坦兹核设施进行任何工作。

其哈塔姆·安比亚中央军事总部警告称，轰炸附近的山峰将导致该地区战争重燃，而此时特朗普政府更希望在关键的中期选举前控制住战争。

那么，为什么皮克克斯山再次成为特朗普威胁的最新目标呢？

什么是镐山？

该遗址在伊朗被称为库赫科朗加兹拉山口，位于首都德黑兰以南约 220 公里（140 英里）的伊斯法罕省，距离纳坦兹浓缩工厂仅 2 公里（1.2 英里）。

美国情报报告显示，该设施挖掘于山体深处，位于数百米厚的坚硬花岗岩之下，以保护其免受旨在穿透掩体的威力强大的炸弹的袭击。

主墓室被认为位于地下至少 100 米（330 英尺）处。

一些西方分析人士推测，这座山是为了安置一座未申报的浓缩铀工厂而建造的，以此来防范伊朗已知的设施遭到袭击。

通过卫星追踪该站点的科学与国际安全研究所评估认为，该站点仍在建设中，尚未投入使用。

然而，伊朗一直坚称其仅发展核电项目，并没有制造核武器的计划。

为什么镐山如此重要？

因为它完好无损。

在 2025 年 6 月美国对福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕发动空袭，结束为期 12 天的以色列对伊朗战争期间，皮克克斯山并未受到波及，并且几乎完全躲过了当前的战争；科学与国际安全研究所只记录到附近废料堆上的一辆汽车被摧毁。

由于伊朗的离心机制造基地和其他地方的浓缩车间在战争中遭到破坏，分析人士认为，这些隧道是德黑兰重建的最明显地点：用于部件生产、组装或浓缩铀。

《华尔街日报》7 月份报道称，以色列向华盛顿方面提供了情报，表明数千台离心机已于去年年底被转移到该设施内，但美国尚未证实这一说法。

特朗普的言论比以色列的要温和得多。

只有当有铀可供处理时，离心机才有用；这些机器可以浓缩铀气，如果没有铀的供应，它们就什么也生产不出来。

伊朗的核设施遭受了多大的破坏？

据大多数估计，数量相当可观。

欧洲对外关系委员会估计，2025年的空袭可能摧毁了伊朗纳坦兹和福尔多核设施中当时正在运行的约18000台离心机，以及几个离心机生产基地和伊朗唯一的黄饼加工厂阿尔达坎。黄饼是从研磨铀矿石中获得的粉末状铀精矿。

当时还安装了近 4000 台额外的离心机，但这些离心机当时处于闲置状态；然而，它们可能在罢工中幸存了下来。

国际原子能机构（IAEA）于 2026 年 3 月确认纳坦兹地下浓缩工厂的入口建筑物遭到进一步破坏，但并未发现对工厂本身造成其他影响。

科学与国际安全研究所6月份报告称，所有三个主要地点的隧道入口仍然封闭，没有证据表明正在进行任何浓缩活动，离心机计划似乎仍然已被摧毁。

特朗普不是说过伊朗的核设施已经被摧毁了吗？

是的。在 2025 年 6 月的袭击事件之后，特朗普表示这三个地点已被“彻底摧毁”。

然而，仅仅几天后，泄露的一份美国国防情报局初步评估报告得出结论，这些设施遭到严重破坏，但并未被摧毁，估计此次袭击使伊朗的核计划倒退了不到六个月。

目前形势仍不明朗。

据信伊朗目前拥有约440公斤（970磅）浓缩度为60%的铀。制造核武器需要90%浓缩度的铀。

没有一名核查人员进入被炸毁的地点，特朗普的说法也从“摧毁”转变为承诺打击伊朗“哪怕只是考虑发展核武器”的任何地点。

我们对伊朗的核计划了解多少？

比过去二十年来的任何时候都要低。

就在美以于 2025 年 6 月对伊朗发动袭击之前，国际原子能机构核实了总共约 10 吨浓缩铀，其中包括 440 公斤浓缩度为 60% 的库存。

国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·格罗西3月初告诉半岛电视台，理论上，如果这批浓缩铀的浓缩度达到90%，就足以制造10枚以上的核弹头。然而，目前尚不清楚这批浓缩铀的下落。

伊朗在袭击事件后暂停了与该机构的合作，国际原子能机构现在表示，它无法报告该库存的规模、位置或组成，尽管它认为其中 60% 的材料大部分被储存在伊斯法罕的隧道中。

周五，特朗普再次声称美国阻止了伊朗发展核武器，并辩称华盛顿的干预保护了以色列和更广泛的中东地区。

德黑兰坚称该计划是和平的，并驳斥了华盛顿对皮卡兹山的关注是其攻击伊朗的捏造借口。