South Korea to increase defense spending over five years

MANILA, Philippines — South Korea plans to spend 346.7 trillion Korean won (U.S. $262.8 billion) in the next five years to bolster its defense capabilities, according to the country’s Defense Ministry.

The ministry announced its 2024-2028 midterm defense plan Tuesday, noting an increase of 17.3 trillion Korean won from last year’s version. The budgetary adjustment, which follows North Korea’s Nov. 21 launch of a reconnaissance satellite, calls for improved military capabilities, efforts to maintain troop levels and the modernization of defense facilities.

Specifically, funding to improve defense capabilities increased by 6%, from 107.4 trillion Korean won to 113.9 trillion Korean won; that is now expected to grow by 11.3% annually. This effort involves deterrence measures, growing a preemptive strike capability, and countering North Korean missiles and drones.

The country added 10.8 trillion Korean won to the initial figure of 224 trillion Korean won to support troops and modernization programs to prepare a “strong and combat-ready military,” according to the ministry’s news release. Funding will also help the military reorganize itself to create “strategic units and advanced forces.”

Following North Korea’s satellite launch last month, South Korea suspended a no-fly provision in the 2018 inter-Korean treaty, enabling the South to monitor the North’s activities along their shared border. North Korea reacted by withdrawing from the pact entirely.

Tension escalated after the North reportedly stationed troops at 11 guard posts, established temporary bases and deployed military assets along the 4-kilometer-wide (2.5-mile-wide) Demilitarized Zone. South Korean officials released images to back these claims.

North Korea has also opened more than 10 coastal artillery embattlements along the West Sea, and its guards were seen carrying handguns at the Joint Security Area in breach of a previous agreement. In turn, South Korea announced plans to restore 11 previously dismantled guard posts at the DMZ.

North Korea has committed approximately 17 violations of previous agreements, according to Ju Hyung Kim, a defense analyst at the Seoul-based Security Management Institute think tank. These include the five UAVs North Korea flew in South Korean airspace in December 2022.

And North Korea’s nuclear development program has rendered a 1992 denuclearization agreement between the two countries “practically null,” Kim told Defense News.

South Korea has steadily developed countermeasures against its neighbor, but President Yoon Suk Yeol has called for the development of “overwhelming” wartime capabilities, including what the government refers to as Defense Innovation 4.0, which incorporates advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, to the three-axis system — a strategy that informs how the military should respond to an attack from the North.

In March, the government unveiled its so-called Kill Web strategy meant as an improvement to the Kill Chain approach, which would neutralize nuclear and missile strikes as well as directly launch attacks against Pyongyang should the two Koreas enter into armed conflict.

“When given a mission, we must always maintain a readiness to immediately operate the world’s best long-range, ultra-precise and high-power missiles, and resolutely punish enemy provocations,” Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said Friday during a visit to the country’s strategic missile command. “The enemy’s provocation may vary, but your role is to strike the enemy’s heart and head fatally.”

Amid tension on the Korean Peninsula, Kim warned of a possible scenario in which China tries to take Taiwan by force — an island nation Beijing considers a rogue province.

“In such a scenario, it is conceivable that key U.S. assets currently stationed in South Korea could be redirected toward the Taiwan Strait,” Kim said. “This redirection may create a security vacuum that North Korea might exploit, leading to miscalculations regarding the United States’ ability to fully commit its capabilities in a two-front war situation.”

“Therefore, it is crucial for the trilateral partners [South Korea, the U.S. and Japan] to devise a feasible plan to address this potentially drastic scenario and consistently signal to North Korea that a full-fledged military attack against South Korea would not be successful,” Kim added.

Leilani Chavez is an Asia correspondent for Defense News. Her reporting expertise is in East Asian politics, development projects, environmental issues and security.

菲律宾马尼拉——据韩国国防部称，韩国计划在未来五年内投入 346.7 万亿韩元（约合 2628 亿美元）以加强其国防能力。

韩国国防部周二公布了2024-2028年中期国防计划，预算较去年版本增加17.3万亿韩元。此次预算调整是在朝鲜11月21日发射侦察卫星之后进行的，旨在提升军事能力、维持兵力水平并推进国防设施现代化。

具体而言，用于提升国防能力的资金增加了6%，从107.4万亿韩元增至113.9万亿韩元；预计未来每年将以11.3%的速度增长。这项工作包括威慑措施、增强先发制人打击能力以及应对朝鲜的导弹和无人机。

据韩国国防部新闻稿称，该国在最初224万亿韩元的基础上追加了10.8万亿韩元，用于支持军队和现代化项目，以打造一支“强大且随时准备作战的军队”。这笔资金还将帮助军队进行重组，以组建“战略单位和先进部队”。

继朝鲜上月发射卫星后，韩国暂停了2018年朝韩条约中的禁飞条款，使韩国能够监视朝鲜在两国共同边界的活动。朝鲜随即宣布完全退出该条约。

据报道，朝鲜在宽4公里（2.5英里）的非军事区沿线的11个哨所驻扎军队、建立临时基地并部署军事装备，导致紧张局势升级。韩国官员公布图片以佐证这些说法。

朝鲜还在西海沿岸修建了十余座岸防炮台，其警卫人员被目击违反此前协议，在共同警备区携带手枪。作为回应，韩国宣布计划重建此前在非军事区拆除的11个哨所。

据首尔安全管理研究所的国防分析师金柱亨（Ju Hyung Kim）称，朝鲜已违反此前约17项协议。其中包括朝鲜于2022年12月在韩国领空飞行的5架无人机。

金正恩告诉《防务新闻》，朝鲜的核发展计划已经使两国在1992年签署的无核化协议“实际上失效”。

韩国一直在稳步发展针对邻国的反制措施，但总统尹锡烈呼吁发展“压倒性”的战时能力，包括政府所称的国防创新4.0，它将人工智能等先进技术融入三轴体系——这一战略指导着军队应如何应对来自朝鲜的攻击。

今年 3 月，韩国政府公布了所谓的“杀伤网络”战略，旨在改进“杀伤链”战略，以应对核打击和导弹袭击，并在朝韩发生武装冲突时直接对平壤发动攻击。

“接到任务后，我们必须时刻保持战备状态，立即部署世界上最先进的远程、超精确、高威力导弹，坚决惩罚敌人的挑衅行为，”国防部长申元植周五在视察韩国战略导弹司令部时表示。“敌人的挑衅手段可能千变万化，但你们的任务是击中敌人的要害，使其遭受致命打击。”

在朝鲜半岛局势紧张之际，金正恩警告说，中国有可能试图武力夺取台湾——北京将台湾视为其叛乱省份。

金说：“在这种情况下，目前驻扎在韩国的美国关键资产有可能被调往台湾海峡。这种调动可能会造成安全真空，朝鲜可能会利用这一点，导致朝鲜误判美国在两线作战情况下全面投入能力的程度。”

“因此，对于三方伙伴（韩国、美国和日本）来说，至关重要的是制定一个可行的计划来应对这种潜在的极端情况，并不断向朝鲜发出信号，即对韩国发动全面军事攻击不会成功，”金补充道。

莱拉尼·查韦斯是《防务新闻》的亚洲记者。她的报道专长是东亚政治、发展项目、环境问题和安全。