Nobel Peace Prize haunted by Trump ‘spectre’ as he intensifies push for prize ahead of Friday’s announcement

Donald Trump's prospects for the Nobel Peace Prize are slim, yet his influence looms over the winner's announcement, as he has actively campaigned for the award.

Despite ongoing lobbying and potential pressure, the Norwegian Nobel Committee asserts that its decisions are unaffected by external influences, focusing instead on recognising deserving individuals or organisations.

The committee might select a neutral choice pleasing Trump, like humanitarian groups, but could also choose someone who challenges him, reflecting global discontent with leaders prioritising power over international order.

OSLO, Oct 7 — Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize are seen as minimal, but his “spectre” will cast its shadow over Friday’s announcement of the winner in Oslo, experts say.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee knows it will be under close scrutiny: since his return to the White House in January 2025, the billionaire Republican has campaigned intensively for the prize and hasn’t hidden his disappointment at not winning it yet.

The chances of him getting the nod are however undermined by his war against Iran, his territorial ambitions — sometimes at the expense of allies, as in Greenland — and his attacks on international cooperation institutions and the media.

Even though he has not been lobbying as openly for the Nobel in recent weeks, Trump remains on everyone’s minds, with strong chances that the committee’s pick will, regardless of who they choose, be interpreted as direct or indirect criticism of the US president.

Trump is “the spectre in the room”, said the head of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO), Haakon Gjerlow.

He said the Nobel committee must be asking itself: “Is there any potential for this prize to create harm rather than good in awarding it?”, given the reactions that could emerge from the White House.

The Nobel Institute says it is unfazed.

“There’s always a lot of lobbying, and ultimately perhaps also attempts to exert pressure on the committee. So in one sense we’re very used to that,” the secretary of the committee, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told AFP.

“It’s not something we don’t discuss. Of course we have to discuss it, but it’s not like that influences the discussions in the room and decisions that come out,” he insisted.

Last year, the prestigious prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, a choice generally considered palatable to Trump.

Machado even gave him her Nobel gold medal, judging he deserved it after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro — though she failed to obtain his political backing in exchange.

Those events could prompt the committee to this year choose a laureate who enjoys broad consensus, such as an individual or organisation working to protect children or humanitarian efforts.

That could include the Save the Children charity and Mykola Kuleba, a Ukrainian children’s rights activist campaigning for the return of kids illegally taken to Russia from occupied territories — a cause close to the heart of Trump’s wife Melania.

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERR), a vast network of volunteers risking their lives to help people facing the double threat of war and hunger, could also be a potential laureate.

But the committee may also choose a laureate that could rub Trump the wrong way.

That could include the UN special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese, Pope Leo XIV, press freedoms with an award to the Committee to Protect Journalists, or international justice bodies such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

“We live in an age of predators. We have Trump, Putin, Netanyahu,” said Nobel historian Asle Sveen.

“They don’t want to have an international order. They want to have big powers with spheres of influence. And this court stands in the way,” he said, referring to the ICC.

A total of 287 individuals and organisations have been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, though the names on the list are kept secret for 50 years.

But peace remains elusive in many parts of the world: 65 armed conflicts involving at least one state actor were registered in 2025, the highest number since 1946, according to PRIO.

“At an overall level, it is clear that the world is not developing in the right direction,” said Harpviken.

“At the same time... there is no lack of good initiatives. There is no lack of organisations or individuals who do good work,” he said.

“A peace prize may make more sense than ever.” — AFP

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唐纳德·特朗普获得诺贝尔和平奖的希望渺茫，但他的影响力仍然笼罩着获奖者的宣布，因为他曾积极争取该奖项。

尽管面临持续不断的游说和潜在压力，挪威诺贝尔委员会坚称其决定不受外部影响，而是专注于表彰值得表彰的个人或组织。

委员会可能会选择像人道主义组织那样中立的、令特朗普满意的选项，但也可能会选择挑战他的人，以反映全球对领导人将权力置于国际秩序之上的不满。

奥斯陆，10 月 7 日——专家表示，唐纳德·特朗普获得诺贝尔和平奖的机会微乎其微，但他的“幽灵”将给周五在奥斯陆宣布获奖者蒙上阴影。

挪威诺贝尔委员会知道它将受到密切关注：自2025年1月重返白宫以来，这位亿万富翁共和党人就一直在积极争取该奖项，并且毫不掩饰自己尚未获奖的失望之情。

然而，他与伊朗的战争、他的领土野心（有时以牺牲盟友为代价，例如在格陵兰岛）以及他对国际合作机构和媒体的攻击，都削弱了他获得提名的机会。

尽管特朗普最近几周没有像以前那样公开游说诺贝尔奖，但他仍然是人们关注的焦点，委员会无论选择谁，都很有可能被解读为对美国总统的直接或间接批评。

奥斯陆和平研究所 (PRIO) 所长哈康·杰尔洛夫表示，特朗普是“房间里的幽灵”。

他表示，鉴于白宫可能作出的反应，诺贝尔委员会必须扪心自问：“颁发这个奖项是否有可能弊大于利？”

诺贝尔研究所表示，他们对此毫不在意。

“游说活动总是很多，最终可能还会有人试图向委员会施加压力。所以从某种意义上说，我们已经非常习惯这种情况了，”委员会秘书克里斯蒂安·伯格·哈普维肯告诉法新社。

“这不是我们不讨论的话题。当然，我们必须讨论，但这并不会影响会议室里的讨论和最终的决定，”他坚持说。

去年，这一享有盛誉的奖项颁给了委内瑞拉反对派领导人玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多，这一选择普遍被认为符合特朗普的意愿。

马查多甚至将她的诺贝尔金质奖章授予了他，认为他在抓捕总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗后理应获得这枚奖章——尽管她未能以此换取他的政治支持。

这些事件可能会促使委员会今年选择一位享有广泛共识的获奖者，例如致力于保护儿童或人道主义工作的个人或组织。

这可能包括救助儿童会慈善机构和乌克兰儿童权利活动家米科拉·库列巴，他致力于争取将从被占领土非法带到俄罗斯的儿童送回——这项事业与特朗普的妻子梅拉尼娅息息相关。

苏丹紧急救援室 (ERR) 是一个庞大的志愿者网络，他们冒着生命危险帮助面临战争和饥饿双重威胁的人们，该组织也可能获得该奖项。

但委员会也可能选择一位会让特朗普不高兴的获奖者。

这可能包括联合国巴勒斯坦被占领土问题特别报告员弗朗西斯卡·阿尔巴内塞、教皇利奥十四世、新闻自由（向保护记者委员会颁发奖项）或国际司法机构，如国际刑事法院（ICC）和国际法院（ICJ）。

“我们生活在一个掠夺者的时代。我们有特朗普、普京、内塔尼亚胡，”诺贝尔历史学家阿斯勒·斯文说道。

“他们不想建立国际秩序。他们想要的是拥有各自势力范围的大国。而这个法院挡住了他们的路，”他指的是国际刑事法院。

共有 287 个个人和组织被提名诺贝尔和平奖，但名单上的名字要保密 50 年。

但世界许多地方仍然难以实现和平：根据PRIO的数据，2025年登记在册的涉及至少一个国家行为体的武装冲突有65起，是自1946年以来的最高数字。

哈普维肯说：“从整体上看，世界的发展方向显然不对。”

“与此同时……也不乏好的举措。也不乏做出卓越贡献的组织或个人，”他说道。

“设立和平奖或许比以往任何时候都更有意义。”——法新社

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