Why Trump and Iran may now be waiting out the midterms

Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

President Donald Trump’s declaration Thursday that he would not attack Iran again before next month’s midterm elections was an implicit admission of the damage being inflicted on Republican hopes by a war that has defied his promise of a quick victory.

Opposition to the conflict, and anger over the high gasoline and diesel prices it caused, are a prime reason why the GOP faces uphill or tight races for Congress in states like Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina that Trump easily won two years ago.

In that sense, Iran appears to have succeeded in its apparent effort to use the midterm elections to inflict political pain on Trump. It has failed, however, to turn that pressure into a retreat in which the president ends the war on its terms — one reason why an Iranian escalation in the next three weeks cannot be ruled out.

Trump’s reference to the election calendar on Thursday is the clearest indication yet that he is aware of the war’s negative impact on his party’s candidates amid a pitched battle for control of Congress. It is also a striking sign that he has become trapped in his own Middle East entanglement, which could be devastating to his party and his legacy, after promising in his second inaugural address only 20 months ago that his success would be measured by “the wars we never get into.”

And by leaving open the option of a resumption of attacks after the midterms, the president is offering new clarity on how he might finally end a war he said would last weeks that is now in its eighth month. The prospect that Democrats could claim at least one chamber of Congress in November, meanwhile, raises the possibility of a far more consequential political showdown in Washington over financing the war — and Trump’s legal standing in fighting it.

Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/Wana/Reuters

The president wrote on Truth Social that his blockade of Iran’s oil exports and ships had reduced the country to a “very bad condition” and added that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.”

Trump has hardly been consistent on Iran. He’s often reversed his strategy and statements, sometimes apparently seeking to confuse Iran’s leaders. So there is some doubt about whether his word is equivocal this time.

But he went public on his plans following reports by the Atlantic and Axios that he was considering a resumption of major combat operations before the election on November 3, being keen to show resolve to voters and to convince Americans that an end to the war and lower gas prices were on the way.

Launching strikes that would remind Americans how much they dislike the war would seem a questionable strategy, especially since some Republicans in close races want it over. “The war in Iran needs to end, and end quickly,” Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers said in a social media video late last month.

Iran, a nation that helped wreck Jimmy Carter’s presidency with a hostage crisis in the run-up to the 1980 election, has played into the current election campaign by obstructing oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere.

The war threatens to be devastating to some Republican candidates because it created a tangible link between Trump’s own decision-making and the high prices that are hounding family budgets. In a new CNN/SSRS poll on Thursday, more than 7 in 10 voters in Iowa and Ohio, home to critical Senate contests, said Trump’s policies had increased the cost of living. A new Pew Research Center report Thursday showed that 74% of Americans are concerned about the price of gas and energy. Before the war, 43% said so.

Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/AP/File

Trump has sought to decouple the midterm elections from the war in an apparent effort to reduce Tehran’s leverage.

The question all along has been whether Iran’s capacity to endure war-inflicted pain can outlast Trump’s capacity to bear the political fallout caused by economic disruption in the US.

“They thought they were going to outwait me; you know, ‘We’ll outwait him. He’s got the midterms.’” Trump said at a Cabinet meeting in May. “I don’t care about the midterms.”

Late last month, the president said, “I believe we’ll make a deal right after the election, because it doesn’t make sense for them not to.” He added: “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election.”

Given his frequent rhetorical and strategic reversals during the war, Trump has surprised some observers by sticking to his blockade strategy following the latest eruption of violence in late August and early September.

His argument that the US is winning is supported by signs that Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz — its key strategic gain of the war — has loosened. Oil flows from the Gulf states apart from Iran returned almost to normal in an operation coordinated by the US military. But progress is fragile. Reuters reported there were only seven crossings of the strait Tuesday — the lowest level in more than two months — and only 10 on Wednesday, following an uptick of attacks and harassment on tankers.

And while officials argue the US blockade on Iran is working, there’s been no political payoff to help Republican candidates.

Gasoline prices still stubbornly average $4.36 a gallon nationally, and diesel remains punitively expensive, despite falling back from record highs last month.

The reality of a multi-front war that could expand at any moment was underscored when fighting intensified between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi Arabia — pushing the cost of benchmark Brent crude up 4% Thursday.

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

That likely means more pain at the pump for Americans. And even if prices did somehow fall before Election Day, no one is getting back all the extra cash they’ve spent on gasoline since the start of the war.

So the administration must fall back on more promises the war will soon end. “I think it could be within weeks or months — and the (Iranian) economy doesn’t have to collapse, we just have to have the regime come to their senses,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at G20 talks on August 31.

This sense of certainty may explain why Trump rejected Iran’s offer of a pre-midterm win at the end of September to reopen the strait and to resume nuclear talks in a return for the easing of the blockade.

On the campaign trail, Trump has struggled to convince Americans that his strategy can deliver, even if it represents the most sustained and comprehensive economic coercion the US has ever used against Iran.

There’s no doubt that the US is causing greater pain inside Iran than Tehran is imposing on Americans. Inflation is soaring. Its currency, the rial, is tumbling. According to the New York Times , Iran’s national security adviser Mohsen Rezaei was reported by the official IRNA news agency on Saturday as saying the current circumstances are among the most difficult periods the country has faced.

But Trump’s argument to voters that an Iranian surrender is around the corner does not yet stand up. On Tuesday, Rezaei warned that Iran would never surrender. “Bessent’s delusional forecasts never had any credibility in the first place,” he wrote on X . “His latest propaganda will have an equally short shelf life. You lost the military war. You will fail in the economic war, too.”

Trump didn’t rule out new attacks after Election Day.

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the administration is sending another aircraft-carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East. It said that Trump recently told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the midterms.

Waiting until after Americans vote would alleviate some of the immediate political pressure on the president — even if it sends oil, gasoline and diesel prices soaring again, to the discomfort of millions of Americans.

But if Democrats win either the House or the Senate, his window may be narrow. Showdowns would erupt next year over presidential war powers and financing of military operations against Iran, which had already cost $45 billion by mid-September.

And a new burst of military action would present Trump with a familiar question. If previous aerial onslaughts from the air did not change Iran’s stance, why would a new one be any different?

朱莉娅·德马雷·尼金森/美联社

唐纳德·特朗普总统周四宣布，在下个月的中期选举之前，他不会再次攻击伊朗。这实际上是承认，这场战争已经损害了共和党的希望，也辜负了他迅速取胜的承诺。

反对这场冲突，以及由此导致的高汽油和柴油价格引发的愤怒，是共和党在爱荷华州、俄亥俄州和北卡罗来纳州等州面临国会选举艰难或竞争激烈的主要原因，而特朗普两年前在这些州轻松赢得了选举。

从这个意义上讲，伊朗似乎成功地利用中期选举给特朗普施加了政治压力。然而，它未能将这种压力转化为迫使总统按照其条件结束战争的退让——这也是未来三周内伊朗升级军事行动的可能性不能排除的原因之一。

特朗普周四提及选举日程，这无疑是迄今为止最清晰地表明，他意识到这场战争对其所在政党候选人在国会控制权争夺战中造成的负面影响。这也突显了他已深陷中东泥潭的危险境地，这可能会对他所在的政党及其政治遗产造成毁灭性打击。而就在20个月前，他在第二次就职演说中还曾承诺，衡量其政绩的标准是“我们从未卷入的战争”。

总统保留了中期选举后恢复军事行动的可能性，这让他对如何最终结束这场他曾声称只会持续数周、如今却已持续八个月的战争有了新的认识。与此同时，民主党人有可能在11月赢得国会至少一个议院的控制权，这使得华盛顿围绕战争经费问题以及特朗普在战争中的法律地位展开一场影响更为深远的政治较量成为可能。

阿米尔侯赛因·霍尔古伊/ISNA/Wana/路透社

总统在 Truth Social 上写道，他对伊朗石油出口和船只的封锁使该国陷入了“非常糟糕的境地”，并补充说，“在中期选举之前，我们不会攻击伊朗”。

特朗普在伊朗问题上的立场一直摇摆不定。他经常朝令夕改，有时显然是想迷惑伊朗领导人。因此，这次他的言辞是否模棱两可，令人怀疑。

但据《大西洋月刊》和 Axios 报道，他正在考虑在 11 月 3 日大选前恢复大规模作战行动，之后他公开了自己的计划，渴望向选民表明决心，并让美国人相信战争即将结束，汽油价格即将下降。

发动打击行动只会让美国民众更加意识到他们对这场战争的厌恶，这似乎是一种值得商榷的策略，尤其是一些选情胶着的共和党人希望战争尽快结束。密歇根州共和党参议员候选人迈克·罗杰斯上个月底在一段社交媒体视频中表示：“伊朗战争必须结束，而且要尽快结束。”

伊朗曾在 1980 年总统大选前夕利用人质危机破坏了吉米·卡特的总统任期，如今又通过阻碍霍尔木兹海峡和其他地区的石油供应，介入了当前的总统竞选活动。

这场战争可能对一些共和党候选人造成毁灭性打击，因为它将特朗普的决策与困扰家庭预算的高物价直接联系起来。周四公布的CNN/SSRS最新民调显示，在参议院席位争夺战的关键州爱荷华州和俄亥俄州，超过七成的选民认为特朗普的政策推高了生活成本。皮尤研究中心周四发布的一份新报告显示，74%的美国人对汽油和能源价格感到担忧。而在战争爆发前，这一比例为43%。

莫尔泰扎·尼库巴兹尔/NurPhoto/美联社/文件

特朗普试图将中期选举与战争脱钩，显然是为了削弱德黑兰的影响力。

一直以来的问题是，伊朗承受战争带来的痛苦的能力，能否超过特朗普承受美国经济动荡造成的政治后果的能力。

“他们以为能拖延时间，你知道，‘我们会拖延时间，他还有中期选举要打。’”特朗普在五月份的一次内阁会议上说。“我不在乎中期选举。”

上个月底，总统表示：“我相信我们会在选举结束后立即达成协议，因为对他们来说，不达成协议是没道理的。”他还补充道：“他们正在等着看我在中期选举中的表现。”

鉴于特朗普在战争期间经常在言辞和战略上反复无常，在 8 月下旬和 9 月初的最新暴力冲突爆发后，他仍然坚持封锁战略，这让一些观察人士感到惊讶。

他认为美国正在取得胜利，而伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡——其在战争中的关键战略据点——的控制有所松动，这印证了他的观点。在美军协调的行动中，除伊朗以外的海湾国家石油输送已基本恢复正常。但这一进展十分脆弱。路透社报道称，周二仅有7艘船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，为两个多月以来的最低水平；周三也仅有10艘，此前针对油轮的袭击和骚扰事件有所增加。

尽管官员们认为美国对伊朗的封锁正在奏效，但这并没有给共和党候选人带来任何政治利益。

全国汽油价格平均仍居高不下，平均每加仑 4.36 美元，而柴油价格虽然从上个月的历史高位回落，但仍然高得离谱。

也门胡塞武装与沙特阿拉伯之间的战斗加剧，凸显了多线战争随时可能扩大的现实，导致基准布伦特原油价格周四上涨 4%。

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

这很可能意味着美国人在加油时要承受更大的压力。即便油价在选举日之前真的有所下降，人们也无法收回自战争开始以来在汽油上花费的额外资金。

因此，美国政府只能继续做出战争即将结束的承诺。“我认为战争可能在几周或几个月内结束——伊朗经济不必崩溃，我们只需要伊朗政权恢复理智，”财政部长斯科特·贝森特在8月31日的G20峰会上表示。

这种确定感或许可以解释为什么特朗普拒绝了伊朗提出的在9月底中期选举前赢得大选，以重新开放海峡并恢复核谈判为条件，换取伊朗放松封锁的提议。

在竞选过程中，特朗普一直难以说服美国民众相信他的战略能够奏效，即使这代表着美国对伊朗采取的最持久、最全面的经济胁迫。

毫无疑问，美国给伊朗国内带来的痛苦远大于德黑兰给美国人带来的痛苦。通货膨胀飙升，伊朗货币里亚尔暴跌。据《纽约时报》报道，伊朗国家安全顾问穆赫辛·雷扎伊周六通过官方通讯社伊通社表示，伊朗目前面临的形势是该国历史上最艰难的时期之一。

但特朗普向选民宣称伊朗即将投降的说法目前站不住脚。周二，雷扎伊警告说，伊朗永远不会投降。他在X网站上写道：“贝森特的妄想预测从一开始就毫无可信度。他最新的宣传也同样不会长久。你们输掉了军事战争，你们在经济战争中也必将失败。”

特朗普并未排除选举日后发动新袭击的可能性。

《华尔街日报》上周报道称，美国政府将向中东增派一个航母打击群和一个海军陆战队远征部队。报道还称，特朗普最近告诉助手，他预计在中期选举后恢复对伊朗的轰炸。

等到美国人投票之后再采取行动，可以减轻总统面临的一些直接政治压力——即使这会导致石油、汽油和柴油价格再次飙升，给数百万美国人带来不适。

但如果民主党赢得众议院或参议院，他的任期可能就所剩无几了。明年，围绕总统战争权力和对伊朗军事行动的经费问题，双方将爆发激烈的争论。截至9月中旬，对伊朗的军事行动已耗资450亿美元。

新一轮军事行动将使特朗普面临一个熟悉的问题：如果之前的空袭都没能改变伊朗的立场，那么新的空袭又有什么不同呢？