If the Strait of Hormuz is open, why are gas and diesel so expensive?

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The Strait of Hormuz is no longer paralyzed and yet fuel prices remain painfully high. It’s a vexing problem with profound financial, political and economic consequences.

Gasoline prices, averaging $4.36 a gallon nationally, have never been this high at this time of year, according to AAA data.

Even after a series of emergency steps from US states and Europe , diesel is only about 20 cents away from the all-time high set just last month.

In short, what started as an oil supply crunch caused by the Iran war has morphed into a broader energy crisis being felt by drivers, truckers and farmers around the world.

Unblocking the Strait of Hormuz has been helpful, but it’s still incredibly dangerous – and thus expensive. Not only that, but Russian refineries are getting destroyed by Ukrainian drones, and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have disrupted a vital shipping lane.

“The wars have not been resolved. There is no peace. The energy system is still constricted,” said Jan Stuart, global energy strategist at Piper Sandler.

The security challenges have been underscored by the staggering cost of getting crude oil out of the Middle East.

Last year, the daily cost of hiring an oil supertanker (known as a Very Large Crude Carrier, or VLCC) to sail from the Persian Gulf to China was just $65,000, according to Clarksons, a London-based research firm.

By the time the Iran war was about to begin, that cost had climbed to $230,000 per day.

Now? It costs $1.6 million per day to hire a VLCC for that route, according to Clarksons.

“That’s insane,” said Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil. “If you own a tanker, you’re in great shape – as long as it goes unscathed by the war.”

But some tankers are not emerging unscathed.

Multiple commercial vessels reported getting struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days alone, including at least two crude oil tankers, according to the United Kingdom’s Maritime Trade Operations.

But it’s not just the cost of hiring a tanker.

It’s the cost of persuading sailors to go on dangerous voyages in war zones.

Some shippers are offering sailors up to $25,000 per trip – an amount that could represent more than a year of wages, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/Wana/Reuters

Insurance costs have also skyrocketed, reflecting the risk of sailing through the region with valuable cargo.

Oil producers are now paying between $30 million and $40 million for a roundtrip voyage in and out of the Strait of Hormuz, the Journal reported.

All of this – the cost to hire a tanker, exorbitant payments to sailors and surging insurance rates – is making it more expensive for consumers and businesses around the world.

It used to cost just $2 per barrel to get crude out of the Persian Gulf. Now, that cost has spiraled to about $33, according to Kloza.

“We’re getting a reasonable amount of crude out, but that’s misleading because the cost of that crude exiting is incredible,” he said.

This helps explain the wide gap between the price of crude in financial markets and the price in the real world.

Consider that the price of Dated Brent – the real-world cost of receiving immediate physical barrels of crude – is $135.74 a barrel as of Thursday, according to S&P Global Platts. That’s well above the Brent futures price of about $100 and not far from the all-time high set in April.

And it’s that real-world price that trickles down to what consumers are paying at the gas station.

“The United States does not live in isolation. We live with a global price because we import gasoline,” said Stuart.

The global energy system is not experiencing a single war, but two or arguably three wars – simultaneously.

On top of the US-Iran war, a conflict that has stretched for much longer than many imagined when it started, there is the battle between Yemen and Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Houthi drone and missile attacks have disrupted another vital chokepoint for global trade , the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

And then there are the increasingly successful Ukrainian drone attacks destroying refineries in Russia, one of the world’s leading exporters of diesel.

-/AFP/AFP via Getty Images

Facing fuel shortages at home, Russia has responded by limiting its fuel exports. China, seeking to avoid shortages of its own, has similarly restricted its exports.

US refineries are the only ones left standing. But they are already producing as much gasoline, diesel and jet fuel as they can. Now, some US refineries are dialing back their production for routine maintenance that typically occurs at this time of the year.

Hurricane Isaias could make matters worse if the storm knocks production offline or damages refineries along the US Gulf Coast.

Energy prices would be much, much higher if not for the fact that the world had a sizable rainy day fund built up when the year started.

Commercial and emergency stockpiles act as shock absorbers during crises.

But now those inventories have been aggressively drawn down, leaving the world with less margin for error now. Those shrinking stockpiles have driven up the premium built into current prices.

“We are running on very, very low inventories. We don’t have buffers anymore,” said Stuart.

All of this explains why prices remain high and the risks are elevated – even as the flow of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz has recovered towards pre-war levels.

“You have to end all three wars – or even two out of three wouldn’t be bad,” said Kloza.

穆罕默德·埃瑟/阿纳多卢/盖蒂图片社

霍尔木兹海峡已不再瘫痪，但燃油价格依然居高不下。这是一个棘手的问题，会带来深远的金融、政治和经济影响。

根据美国汽车协会 (AAA) 的数据，全国汽油价格平均为每加仑 4.36 美元，这是每年这个时候汽油价格最高的时期。

即使在美国各州和欧洲采取了一系列紧急措施之后，柴油价格距离上个月创下的历史最高价也仅差约 20 美分。

简而言之，最初由伊朗战争引起的石油供应短缺已经演变成一场更广泛的能源危机，世界各地的司机、卡车司机和农民都感受到了这场危机。

疏通霍尔木兹海峡固然有所帮助，但仍然极其危险，因此成本也很高。不仅如此，俄罗斯的炼油厂还遭到乌克兰无人机的袭击，胡塞武装在红海的袭击也扰乱了一条至关重要的航道。

“战争尚未结束，没有和平，能源系统仍然受到限制，”Piper Sandler全球能源战略家Jan Stuart表示。

从中东地区运出原油的高昂成本凸显了安全挑战的重要性。

据总部位于伦敦的研究公司克拉克森（Clarksons）称，去年，租用一艘石油超级油轮（称为超大型原油运输船，或 VLCC）从波斯湾航行到中国的每日成本仅为 65,000 美元。

到伊朗战争即将爆发时，这一成本已攀升至每天 23 万美元。

现在呢？据克拉克森公司称，租用一艘超大型油轮执飞这条航线，每天需要花费 160 万美元。

“这太疯狂了，”海湾石油公司首席能源顾问汤姆·克洛扎说。“如果你拥有一艘油轮，那就太好了——只要它不受战争影响。”

但有些油轮却未能毫发无损地脱险。

据英国海事贸易行动部门称，仅最近几天，霍尔木兹海峡就有多艘商船报告遭到炮弹袭击，其中包括至少两艘原油油轮。

但这不仅仅是租用油轮的成本。

这是说服水手前往战区进行危险航行的代价。

据《华尔街日报》报道，一些船运公司向水手提供每次航行高达 25,000 美元的报酬——这笔钱可能相当于一年多的工资。

阿米尔侯赛因·霍尔古伊/ISNA/Wana/路透社

保险费用也大幅上涨，反映出载有贵重货物航行经过该地区的风险。

据《华尔街日报》报道，石油生产商现在往返霍尔木兹海峡的费用在 3000 万美元到 4000 万美元之间。

所有这些因素——租用油轮的成本、支付给海员的高额报酬以及不断上涨的保险费率——都使得世界各地的消费者和企业的成本越来越高。

据克洛扎称，过去从波斯湾开采原油的成本仅为每桶2美元，而现在已飙升至约33美元。

“我们确实开采出了相当数量的原油，但这具有误导性，因为开采这些原油的成本高得惊人，”他说。

这有助于解释金融市场原油价格与现实世界价格之间存在的巨大差距。

根据标普全球普氏能源资讯的数据，截至周四，布伦特原油现货价格（即实际购买现货原油的价格）为每桶135.74美元。这远高于布伦特原油期货价格（约100美元），并且距离4月份创下的历史高点也不远。

而正是这种实际价格最终会反映在消费者在加油站支付的价格上。

“美国并非孤立存在。由于我们进口汽油，所以我们承受着全球油价，”斯图尔特说。

全球能源系统面临的不是一场战争，而是两场，甚至可以说是三场战争——同时发生。

除了美伊战争（这场冲突持续时间比许多人当初想象的要长得多）之外，还有也门与伊朗支持的胡塞武装之间的战斗。

胡塞武装的无人机和导弹袭击破坏了全球贸易的另一个重要咽喉要道——曼德海峡。

此外，乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂的行动也越来越成功，而俄罗斯是世界领先的柴油出口国之一。

-/法新社/法新社 via Getty Images

面对国内燃料短缺，俄罗斯采取了限制燃料出口的措施。中国为了避免自身出现燃料短缺，也采取了类似的限制出口措施。

美国炼油厂是目前仅存的炼油厂。但它们已经竭尽全力生产汽油、柴油和航空煤油。现在，一些美国炼油厂正在减少产量，进行通常在每年这个时候进行的例行维护。

如果飓风伊萨亚斯导致美国墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂停产或受损，情况可能会变得更糟。

如果不是因为年初时世界各国积累了相当可观的应急资金，能源价格将会高得多。

商业储备和应急储备在危机期间起到缓冲作用。

但现在这些库存已被大幅削减，使得全球市场容错空间更小。库存的减少推高了当前价格中已包含的溢价。

“我们的库存非常非常低，已经没有任何缓冲库存了。”斯图尔特说。

这一切都解释了为什么油价居高不下，风险依然很高——即使霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量已经恢复到战前水平。

克洛扎说：“你必须结束这三场战争——或者哪怕结束三场中的两场也不错。”