Control of the Senate could hinge on these independents running where Democrats aren’t

Nikos Frazier/Omaha World-Herald/Getty Images

Stephanie Nantkes is a proud Democrat. But when asked how her political party is perceived here, she doesn’t sugarcoat the answer.

“I mean, not well,” said Nantkes, a retired teacher. “Not well at all.”

She wore a light blue “Seward County Democrats” shirt to meet her preferred US Senate candidate, who is actually not a Democrat.

In fact, there is no Democrat on the fall Senate ballot. Party leaders decided to stand down and support Dan Osborn, an independent, in hopes of boosting his chances against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts.

“People are more outraged by Washington now than they were then,” Nantkes said. “Two years ago, he almost pulled it off. So what do you think might happen this time?”

After losing a Senate race here in 2024 by fewer than 7 percentage points, Osborn is trying again — and this time, he’s not alone.

Democrats are also backing independent candidates in South Dakota and Idaho. In Montana, some party leaders are supporting Seth Bodnar, an independent former university president, after a long-shot Democratic nominee declined to drop out.

Osborn’s candidacy is seen by strategists as a roadmap.

“We are going to start to see in 2028 and beyond people stepping up and using this model to win in their perspective states,” Osborn said. “So we can get a group of people that want to do the right thing.”

For all the handwringing in all corners of the nation over the direction of the Democratic Party, the decisions by party leaders to intentionally not run nominees in several states is a blunt acknowledgment of the party’s toxicity in a stretch of the country that once routinely elected Democrats to state and federal office.

Two decades ago, Nebraska had one Democratic senator and North and South Dakota each had two. Former Montana Sen. Jon Tester won reelection during Trump’s first term but lost by seven points in 2024 while Trump won the state by 20.

“You know, our brand still needs a lot of help,” said Jane Kleeb, chairwoman of the Nebraska Democratic Party who also serves as vice chair of the Democratic National Committee. “I deeply understand why they’re frustrated with the Democratic Party nationally. All you see on TV is coastal Democrats, so we’re working hard to change that.”

Kleeb called it a “pragmatic” decision to support Osborn’s candidacy, telling CNN: “It shows people that we are willing to cross party lines and not let our ego of partisanship get in the way of what’s best for Nebraska.”

To be sure, the Senate races are an uphill climb for all the independent candidates in deep-red states where President Donald Trump recorded a trio of double-digit victories. A robust mix of independent voters along with a healthy share of exhausted Republicans would have to join Democrats for any independent to have a shot at winning.

Yet a battered agricultural economy as well as frustration with tariffs and other administration policies, including a recent decision to allow more foreign beef imports into the country, is testing Republican patience and dominance in November.

“I compare it to pulling a drain plug in a full tub of bathwater,” said Mike Mulholland, a retired Omaha fire captain who came to see Osborn at a town hall meeting. “It’s not going from one extreme to the other, but I see the support for MAGA slowly circling the drain, because I think people are waking up and they want change.”

Osborn, a mechanic and former union president at the Kellogg’s cereal plant in Omaha that closed last month, makes clear that he has little use — and no loyalty — for either political party and believes voters are open to finding a new way.

“We have to stop looking left and right and pointing fingers and we have to start looking up,” Osborn said in an interview. “We have to start looking up at the puppet masters, the lobbyists, the money in politics that drives the political-industrial complex.”

As Osborn moves closer toward holding town meetings in all 93 counties across Nebraska, he said he notices a different political climate than two years ago when he lost to Sen. Deb Fischer. He sees a restive electorate, even among conservatives he meets, and believes there is a potential opening as more voters seek change.

“The significant difference between when I was campaigning in 2024 is the war in Iran,” Osborn said. “And costs are skyrocketing that families are struggling with.”

Osborn and the three other independent candidates are military veterans. He served in the Navy and peppers his speeches with references to passing through the Strait of Hormuz during four stints in the Middle East.

“We were promised no new wars — no new foreign wars — but yet here we are,” Osborn told a town hall meeting at the VFW Club in Crete, a southeast Nebraska town, where about 80 people turned out to see him on a recent Sunday afternoon. “We are worse off now than we were when we started.”

A central question in Nebraska and beyond is what the Senate candidates would do if they actually win.

While Democrats have extended a hand in hopes of denying Republicans a majority in a narrowly divided Senate, Osborn and other contenders pledge to maintain their independence. He says he has never been a registered Democrat and frequently points out his father is a lifelong conservative.

“I don’t need to caucus with either party,” Osborn said during a debate this week at the Nebraska State Fair. “Nobody’s got a monopoly on a good idea. I will work with Republicans to get things passed, but it’s about delivering for Nebraska. That’s what I intend to do, is to work for the people of Nebraska, not a party boss.”

Ricketts, who served as the state’s governor for two terms and is now running for reelection to the Senate, sharply questions Osborn’s independence.

In their only scheduled debate of the campaign, he called his rival “Democrat Dan” more than three dozen times during an hourlong forum.

“Democrat Dan is trying to sell you a message about how he’s this regular guy from Nebraska,” Ricketts said. “But he’s being bought and paid for by people on the coast who want a senator from California or New York, not one from Nebraska.”

The independents seldom mention cultural issues and occasionally take positions traditionally favored by Republicans.

“If we get multiple independents into the United States Senate, we become the power bloc,” said Brian Bengs, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and independent who is challenging South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, a Republican. “It is a new concept that we’re trying to sell here.”

In an interview, Bengs said he would not caucus with either party and was hopeful that independents could “deny either team a majority” in a closely divided Senate.

“If you can get just a handful of independents in there, we become the fulcrum through which you need to move anything through the Senate,” Bengs said. “You’re going to need us and there’s going to be a price for that, and we want good government reforms.”

In Idaho, Todd Achilles, a former state legislator and Army veteran, is challenging three-term Republican Sen. Jim Risch. His independent candidacy, while still seen as a long shot in a state Trump won by 37 percentage points two years ago, is being closely watched by GOP officials, mindful of the political headwinds the party is facing.

Erin Woodiel/Argus Leader/USA Today Network/Imagn/File

Idaho Statesman/Tribune News Service/Getty Images/File

In all of the Senate contests, a desire to break up one-party rule in Washington, corruption and corporate dominance are central themes for the independent hopefuls.

“The biggest thing that transcends party lines, the root cause, is the corruption,” Osborn said. “We can all feel that Washington, DC, is broken.”

While Osborn is seeking to tap into feelings of discontent among voters, he rarely mentions Trump’s name directly in his town hall meetings — even when asked, which Lynn Wake did when she met Osborn at a recent afternoon campaign stop.

She wondered what Osborn thought of the president. After a few open laughs in the room, he delivered a long reply that barely mentioned Trump at all. She said she didn’t mind him skirting the question, knowing that any path to victory must include a coalition of Nebraskans who voted for Trump.

“We don’t need to do Trump bashing now,” Wake said. “That’s all been said and done.”

She said she was pleased Democratic leaders decided to stand down and not replace a Senate candidate on the ballot, a calculated decision designed to help Osborn.

“He’s a good candidate,” Wake said. “I don’t think Democrats wanted to get in the way of that.”

Nikos Frazier/Omaha World-Herald/Getty Images

斯蒂芬妮·南特克斯是一位自豪的民主党人。但当被问及她的政党在这里如何被看待时，她并没有粉饰太平。

“我的意思是，情况不太好，”退休教师南特克斯说。“情况非常不好。”

她穿着一件浅蓝色的“苏厄德县民主党人”衬衫去会见她属意的美国参议院候选人，而这位候选人实际上并不是民主党人。

事实上，秋季参议院选举的选票上没有民主党候选人。党内领导人决定放弃民主党候选人，转而支持独立候选人丹·奥斯本，希望以此提高他对抗共和党参议员皮特·里基茨的胜算。

“现在人们对华盛顿的愤怒比那时更甚，”南特克斯说。“两年前，他几乎成功了。那么你认为这次会发生什么呢？”

奥斯本在 2024 年的参议院竞选中以不到 7 个百分点的差距落败后，他再次尝试——而且这一次，他不再孤军奋战。

民主党人也在南达科他州和爱达荷州支持独立候选人。在蒙大拿州，一些党内领导人转而支持独立候选人、前大学校长塞思·博德纳，此前一位胜算渺茫的民主党候选人拒绝退出竞选。

战略家们将奥斯本的参选视为一份路线图。

奥斯本说：“我们将在2028年及以后看到人们站出来，运用这种模式在他们各自的州取得胜利。这样我们就能聚集一群想要做正确事情的人。”

尽管全国各地都在为民主党的未来走向忧心忡忡，但该党领导人决定故意不在几个州推出候选人，这直白地承认了该党在曾经经常选举民主党人担任州和联邦职务的地区所造成的负面影响。

二十年前，内布拉斯加州只有一位民主党参议员，北达科他州和南达科他州各有两位。前蒙大拿州参议员乔恩·泰斯特在特朗普的第一任期内成功连任，但在2024年的选举中以7个百分点的劣势落败，而特朗普在该州则以20个百分点的优势获胜。

“你知道，我们的品牌形象仍然需要很多帮助，”内布拉斯加州民主党主席、同时也是民主党全国委员会副主席的简·克莱布说道。“我非常理解他们为什么对民主党全国层面感到失望。电视上看到的都是沿海地区的民主党人，所以我们正在努力改变这种状况。”

克莱布称支持奥斯本参选是一个“务实的”决定，并告诉 CNN：“这向人们表明，我们愿意跨越党派界限，不会让党派之争妨碍内布拉斯加州的最佳利益。”

可以肯定的是，在特朗普总统曾三次以两位数优势获胜的深红州，所有独立候选人在参议院选举中都将面临艰巨的挑战。任何独立候选人要想赢得选举，都必须争取到大量独立选民以及相当一部分疲惫不堪的共和党选民的支持，再加上民主党选民的支持。

然而，疲软的农业经济以及对关税和其他政府政策（包括最近允许更多外国牛肉进口到该国的决定）的不满，正在考验共和党在 11 月的耐心和优势。

“我把它比作拔掉装满洗澡水的浴缸的排水塞，”退休的奥马哈消防队长迈克·穆尔霍兰德说道，他来参加市政厅会议，与奥斯本会面。“这并非从一个极端走向另一个极端，但我看到人们对‘让美国再次伟大’运动的支持正在慢慢流失，因为我认为人们正在觉醒，他们想要改变。”

奥斯本是一名机械师，也是上个月关闭的奥马哈家乐氏谷物工厂的前工会主席。他明确表示，他对两个政党都没有什么兴趣，也没有忠诚可言，并认为选民愿意寻找新的出路。

奥斯本在一次采访中说：“我们必须停止左右张望、互相指责，而应该开始抬头看看。我们必须开始关注那些幕后操纵者、游说者以及推动政治产业复合体的金钱势力。”

随着奥斯本计划在内布拉斯加州全部93个县举行市民大会，他表示，他注意到如今的政治氛围与两年前败给参议员黛布·费舍尔时截然不同。他发现选民情绪躁动，即使在他遇到的保守派人士中也是如此。他认为，随着越来越多的选民寻求变革，这其中蕴藏着机会。

奥斯本说：“与我2024年竞选时相比，最大的不同之处在于伊朗战争。战争成本飙升，令许多家庭苦不堪言。”

奥斯本和其他三位独立候选人都是退伍军人。他曾在海军服役，并在演讲中多次提及他四次在中东服役期间途经霍尔木兹海峡的经历。

“我们曾被承诺不会再有新的战争——不会再有新的对外战争——但现在我们却身陷其中，”奥斯本在内布拉斯加州东南部小镇克里特的退伍军人协会俱乐部举行的一次市政厅会议上说道。就在不久前的一个周日下午，大约有80人前来聆听他的讲话。“我们现在的处境比我们刚开始的时候还要糟糕。”

内布拉斯加州乃至其他地区的一个核心问题是，如果参议院候选人真的当选，他们会做什么。

尽管民主党人伸出橄榄枝，希望阻止共和党在两党席位接近的参议院中获得多数席位，但奥斯本和其他候选人承诺保持独立性。他表示自己从未注册为民主党人，并经常指出他的父亲是一位终身保守派人士。

“我不需要加入任何一方的党团会议，”奥斯本本周在内布拉斯加州博览会的一场辩论中说道。“好点子并非任何人的专利。我会与共和党人合作，推动法案通过，但关键在于为内布拉斯加州人民谋福利。我的目标是为内布拉斯加州人民服务，而不是为某个党派大佬效力。”

曾担任两届州长、现竞选连任参议员的里基茨对奥斯本的独立性提出了尖锐的质疑。

在竞选期间唯一一场预定的辩论中，他在长达一小时的论坛上，称呼他的对手为“民主党人丹”超过三十次。

“民主党人丹试图向你们灌输一种观念，那就是他只是个来自内布拉斯加州的普通人，”里基茨说。“但他实际上是被沿海地区的人收买了，这些人想要的是一位来自加利福尼亚州或纽约州的参议员，而不是一位来自内布拉斯加州的参议员。”

独立人士很少提及文化问题，偶尔也会采取共和党人传统上支持的立场。

“如果我们能让多名独立人士进入美国参议院，我们就能成为一股强大的力量，”布莱恩·本斯说道。本斯是一位退役空军中校，也是一名独立人士，他正在挑战南达科他州共和党参议员迈克·朗兹。“这是我们试图在这里推广的一个新理念。”

在一次采访中，本斯表示他不会与任何一方结盟，并希望独立人士能够在势均力敌的参议院中“阻止任何一方获得多数席位”。

“如果能让少数独立议员进入参议院，我们就能成为推动任何法案在参议院通过的关键力量，”本斯说。“你们需要我们，而这需要付出代价，我们想要的是良好的政府改革。”

在爱达荷州，前州议员、陆军退伍军人托德·阿基里斯正在挑战连任三届的共和党参议员吉姆·里施。尽管在两年前特朗普以37个百分点优势赢得该州的情况下，他的独立候选人身份胜算渺茫，但共和党官员仍密切关注着他的选情，因为他们深知该党目前面临的政治逆风。

Erin Woodiel/Argus Leader/今日美国网络/Imagn/档案

爱达荷州政治家报/论坛新闻社/盖蒂图片社/档案照片

在所有参议院竞选中，打破华盛顿一党专政、打击腐败和打击企业垄断都是独立候选人的核心主题。

奥斯本说：“超越党派界限的最大问题，也是问题的根源，就是腐败。我们都感觉到华盛顿特区已经千疮百孔。”

虽然奥斯本试图利用选民的不满情绪，但他很少在市政厅会议上直接提及特朗普的名字——即使有人问起，林恩·韦克在最近一次下午的竞选活动中遇到奥斯本时也问过他。

她想知道奥斯本对总统的看法。房间里响起几声笑声后，他发表了一番长篇大论，却几乎只字未提特朗普。她说她并不介意他回避这个问题，因为她知道，任何通往胜利的道路都必须包含那些投票给特朗普的内布拉斯加州选民的联盟。

韦克说：“我们现在没必要再抨击特朗普了。一切都已经过去了。”

她说，她很高兴民主党领导人决定退出竞选，不再更换参议院候选人，这是一个旨在帮助奥斯本的精心策划的决定。

“他是个不错的候选人，”韦克说。“我认为民主党人不想阻碍他。”