Trump deal for Russian diesel sparks anger in Ukraine, doubts among analysts

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President Donald Trump said on Friday he secured an agreement from Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply markets with Russian diesel fuel as he works to bring down energy costs ahead of the midterm elections.

Energy industry analysts, however, say the agreement — which sparked anger in Ukraine — isn’t likely to lower diesel prices in any meaningful way.

Trump wrote on social media that Putin agreed to “immediately supply” more than 300,000 tons of diesel to global energy markets, with another 500,000 tons promised in November. Together, the amounts — equal to 6 million barrels of diesel fuel — would cover about a day and a half worth of US demand, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Trump said millions more tons of Russian diesel would be supplied following the first tranches “based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries.”

“We are talking PERHAPS a 5-6% increase in supply between now and year end,” Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, said about the the president’s announcement in an email.

“Bottom line — this is helpful but not a needle mover for global diesel markets,” Pickering said. “Sidenote — there is a reason Trump talked about volumes in tons instead of barrels. The tons number looks bigger to a general observer. This is more politics than a game changer.”

Russia banned exports of diesel in early July, after Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries triggered widespread fuel shortages across the country. This cut roughly 800,000 barrels per day from the global market — at a time when supplies were already tight because of the US war against Iran.

The ban was extended last month, aggravating cost pressures on energy.

According to the Kremlin readout of the phone call between the two leaders, Putin told Trump that Russia was “ready to supply oil and petroleum products to the US and global markets.”

“I am confident that this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy,” Putin said, according to the Kremlin.

Trump echoed that statement later on Friday, telling reporters at the White House that “oil prices are already dropping like a rock. So, we’re very happy to get it.”

But analysts — and commodities traders — raised doubts that Russia would be able to live up to that promise.

At the close of trading on Friday, diesel futures were unmoved by the announcement, down by about 4%.

But Trump’s announcement was met with anger in Ukraine. Kyiv has long advocated for tougher sanctions on Russian energy exports, arguing that oil and gas revenues are a major source of funding for Russia’s war machine.

Ukraine has also stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure over the past few months, refusing to stop despite calls from Trump to do so. Just this week, Kyiv has claimed strikes on four different refineries across Russia.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky called the move to allow Russia to export diesel “a weak decision of strong partners.”

“This is additional money for this war, for the suffering, and of course against us. This is only fuels Putin and gives him the possibility to fight more,” he said on social media.

The past few months have been exceptionally deadly for Ukrainian civilians as Russia has managed to take advantage of Kyiv’s critical shortage of air defense missiles, launching near non-stop aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities. One such strike on a bus stop in eastern Ukraine killed more than 30 people on Thursday.

Zelensky has made it clear the timing of the announcement — just as a top-level Ukrainian delegation arrived to Miami for talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner — makes it all the more painful for Kyiv.

“In this exact moment when our team is talking to the American team in Florida, the US President has a conversation with Kremlin leader, with the leader of this war, the leader of this aggression,” he said.

Trump has been working to identify ways to bring down costs, including by temporarily lifting restrictions on “red dye” diesel used in farm equipment.

Trump did not mention raising during his call with Putin the still unexplained death of a plague lab researcher.

Instead, the US president focused solely on diesel supplies, which have concerned Republicans as higher energy prices drive up other costs.

“Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” Trump wrote.

Energy analysts quickly cast doubt on that assertion.

“So assuming this happens and Putin delivers — which would mean reversing the ban on diesel exports that has been in place for several months now — it would be a bandaid, nothing more,” Gregory Brew, an analyst with Eurasia Group’s Energy, Climate & Resources team, said in an email.

“I also have a strong suspicion Putin expects Ukraine to cease its attacks on refineries in exchange for doing Trump the favor. I have a hard time seeing Zelensky cooperate on that front,” Brew said.

CNN’s Victoria Butenko contributed reporting.

Andrew Harnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五表示，他已与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京达成协议，向市场供应俄罗斯柴油燃料，以期在中期选举前降低能源成本。

然而，能源行业分析师表示，这项在乌克兰引发愤怒的协议不太可能以任何有意义的方式降低柴油价格。

特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，普京同意“立即”向全球能源市场供应超过30万吨柴油，并承诺在11月再供应50万吨。据美国能源信息署称，这些柴油总量相当于600万桶，大约可以满足美国一天半的需求。

特朗普表示，在第一批柴油供应之后，还将根据俄罗斯柴油炼厂的状况，再供应数百万吨俄罗斯柴油。

Pickering Energy Partners 的创始人兼首席投资官 Dan Pickering 在一封电子邮件中谈到总统的声明时表示：“我们预计从现在到年底，供应量可能会增加 5-6%。”

皮克林表示：“总而言之，这虽然有帮助，但对全球柴油市场的影响微乎其微。另外，特朗普之所以用吨而不是桶来谈论销量，是有原因的。吨这个数字对普通观察者来说看起来更大。这更多的是出于政治考量，而非真正意义上的变革。”

7月初，乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，引发全国范围内的燃料短缺，俄罗斯随即禁止柴油出口。这使得全球柴油市场每日供应量减少了约80万桶——而当时由于美国对伊朗的战争，柴油供应本已十分紧张。

上个月，禁令被延长，加剧了能源成本压力。

根据克里姆林宫发布的两位领导人通话内容，普京告诉特朗普，俄罗斯“准备向美国和全球市场供应石油和石油产品”。

据克里姆林宫消息，普京表示：“我相信这将对整个全球经济产生积极影响。”

特朗普周五晚些时候在白宫向记者重申了这一说法，称“油价已经暴跌。所以，我们非常高兴能得到这样的结果。”

但分析人士和商品交易员对俄罗斯能否兑现这一承诺表示怀疑。

周五收盘时，柴油期货价格未受该消息影响，下跌约 4%。

但特朗普的声明在乌克兰引发了愤怒。基辅长期以来一直主张对俄罗斯能源出口实施更严厉的制裁，认为石油和天然气收入是俄罗斯战争机器的主要资金来源。

过去几个月，乌克兰加大了对俄罗斯石油基础设施的袭击力度，尽管特朗普呼吁其停止袭击，但乌克兰仍拒绝停止。就在本周，基辅方面声称对俄罗斯境内的四处炼油厂发动了袭击。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基称允许俄罗斯出口柴油的举动是“强大伙伴的软弱决定”。

“这笔钱是用于这场战争、用于抚慰受苦民众，当然也是用来对付我们的。这只会助长普京的气焰，让他有能力发动更多战争，”他在社交媒体上说道。

过去几个月对乌克兰平民来说异常惨痛，俄罗斯利用基辅防空导弹严重短缺的弱点，对乌克兰城市发动了几乎不间断的空袭。周四，在乌克兰东部的一个公交车站，一次空袭造成30多人死亡。

泽连斯基明确表示，就在乌克兰高级代表团抵达迈阿密与美国特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳举行会谈之际，宣布这一消息的时机对基辅来说更加痛苦。

他说：“就在我们团队在佛罗里达与美国团队交谈的此刻，美国总统正在与克里姆林宫领导人、这场战争的领导人、这场侵略的领导人进行对话。”

特朗普一直在努力寻找降低成本的方法，包括暂时取消对农用设备中使用的“红色染料”柴油的限制。

特朗普在与普京的通话中没有提及一名瘟疫实验室研究员至今仍未解释的死亡事件。

相反，美国总统只关注柴油供应问题，这引起了共和党人的担忧，因为能源价格上涨会推高其他成本。

“凭借我们对霍尔木兹海峡的全面控制，以及这项关于俄罗斯能源的重大声明，美国人乃至全世界的柴油价格都将以创纪录的速度下降！”特朗普写道。

能源分析师很快对这种说法表示怀疑。

“因此，假设这种情况发生，普京兑现承诺——这意味着取消已经实施数月的柴油出口禁令——那也只是权宜之计，仅此而已，”欧亚集团能源、气候与资源团队的分析师格雷戈里·布鲁在一封电子邮件中表示。

布鲁说：“我强烈怀疑普京希望乌克兰停止袭击炼油厂，以此换取乌克兰帮特朗普一个忙。我很难想象泽连斯基会在这方面配合。”

CNN的维多利亚·布滕科对此报道亦有贡献。