The possibility that Trump will cost the GOP the Senate is coming into focus

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President Donald Trump might well have cost Republicans the Senate majority in both 2020 and 2022.

In the former, even Trump himself has allowed that his stolen-election crusade might have damaged turnout in the decisive Georgia runoffs. And in the latter, Trump saddled his party with a number of shoddy MAGA candidates he endorsed who went on to lose very winnable seats .

Could it happen again in 2026?

It’s certainly looking possible. And recent developments make this specter loom larger.

The biggest example is the Senate race in Texas. But Trump has also made things more difficult for his party to hold seats in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina.

It’s not clear that Trump’s involvement will have changed the ultimate result of any of them. But if the battle for the majority is tight, the party could certainly be ruing some of Trump’s maneuvers — again.

Trump said this week that he had “ no regrets ” about backing state attorney general Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in their May runoff. But the same probably can’t be said for many in his party.

Paxton still hasn’t repaired his image since that brutal runoff, and some recent polls suggest he’s actually lost ground since then. His image is double-digits underwater in most polls — including by around 20 points in a pair of recent polls — and he’s trailed Democrat James Talarico by as much as six points in three different polls now.

Cornyn isn’t a popular politician right now, either. And judging by how competitive Democrats have been in red states like Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, it’s possible he could have been vulnerable, too. But Paxton’s problems are big and evident for everyone to see: A recent Fox News poll showed Talarico is winning 20% of likely voters who backed Cornyn in the March primary.

(Cornyn has avoided supporting Paxton to this day. And CNN’s Patrick Svitek reported Friday on leaked audio of Paxton privately claiming Cornyn wants him to lose .)

Even Trump seems to be quite aware of Paxton’s shortcomings as a candidate, judging by how he has mocked the way he looks, dresses, and speaks . Paxton has a bunch of other baggage as well, including an impeachment and criminal charges.

The conventional wisdom after the primary was that Trump was likely to endorse Cornyn , despite Cornyn having gently criticized Trump at times, because Cornyn had a better chance of holding the seat. Trump said an endorsement was coming “ soon .”

But then Trump just … didn’t. Weeks later, when Paxton was about to win the runoff, Trump got on-board with him and sealed the deal.

If Paxton loses and the Democrats have a bare majority, that non-endorsement of Cornyn might emerge as the pivotal moment of the 2026 election.

Cornyn isn’t the only Senate Republican that Trump nudged aside, of course.

Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina has spoken openly about how Trump’s attacks pushed him towards the exits. In his new book, he recalls how he decided to retire right after Trump attacked him on social media and said he was looking for other candidates.

“Ack Mr. President,” he texted Trump , according to the book. “Now would be a good time to start looking for my replacement.”

Trump responded: “I am! DJT.”

That hasn’t worked out so well for the GOP. Tillis got out, and then popular Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper got in. Today, it looks like the GOP might be giving up on North Carolina , despite Trump having carried it in all three of his elections.

Tillis might well have struggled against Cooper in this environment, too. But that’s if Cooper actually challenged him. And Tillis would at least have benefited from incumbency.

There’s little doubt he’d have proven more formidable than the man the GOP rallied around, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Whatley’s image has been underwater in the most recent quality polls from Elon University and Fox News .

Back in June, Trump decided to back Georgia Rep. Mike Collins over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in the GOP Senate runoff. And it made sense, given Collins was the more MAGA candidate, and Dooley was backed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who has at times tangled with Trump.

But even at the time, it was pretty clear Collins could be a problematic candidate, given some of his past controversies. And it’s only gotten worse since then, with a series of disclosures about Collins’s apparent ties to white nationalists .

Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is quite popular , so it’s perhaps unlikely Dooley would have made the race competitive. But as with North Carolina, Trump probably sealed the deal. And as with North Carolina, there are signs the GOP might be throwing in the towel .

The latest addition to this list is one that Republicans likely won’t actually lose. But South Carolina is proving an unnecessary headache all the same.

Amid some fretting in the state, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024, the GOP recently decided to spend $5 million to shore up appointed Sen. Darline Graham in her race against Democrat Annie Andrews. And Trump recently decided to attack Andrews on social media using an anti-transgender slur .

Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, was plucked from almost total obscurity when Trump backed her for the appointment to replace her brother in July. Then, both decided she should run for a full term, too. She won the primary runoff with Trump’s endorsement, despite some very unsteady moments .

Elevating a neophyte over a bunch of more established politicians who had spent years waiting for a Senate vacancy didn’t go over well with the party establishment. And there has even been some talk of GOP voters writing in Rep. Ralph Norman , who narrowly lost the primary to Graham.

It’s not totally clear how close the race is; we’re waiting for quality polling. But Trump’s move to foist Graham upon his party was weird from the outset. There seemed to be little reason for Trump to get involved.

And now the party is dealing with the consequences of that.

What’s particularly striking about all this is that Trump and his political operation have been through this before. They should know the drawbacks of nominating bad candidates, because it’s cost them in previous years. They should know that Trump’s actions have made winning Senate seats more difficult.

There was plenty of evidence that Trump’s antics in trying to overturn the 2020 election cost the party those Georgia runoffs held on January 5, 2021. Turnout dropped disproportionately in heavily conservative areas . The GOP had almost always gained ground in Georgia runoffs until then, but it actually lost ground.

And Trump even acknowledged in a later interview that GOP voters were turned off because of the supposed voter fraud (that he basically conjured out of thin air). He also said that he didn’t urge them to trust Georgia election officials as strongly as he could have, because he was angry.

Trump was spared a true reckoning on this because of the events that transpired in hours after the runoffs, on January 6, 2021. But it was striking to see him so forthrightly acknowledge that maybe he played a role in costing his party the Senate majority — even if he thinks he did it for legitimate reasons.

Yet, he still proceeded in 2022 to make a bunch of curious endorsement decisions. And now it’s happening again, to some extent.

The difference in 2026, of course, is that Trump actually has to deal as president with whomever holds the Senate majority.

安娜·莫尼梅克/盖蒂图片社/档案照片

唐纳德·特朗普总统很可能让共和党在2020年和2022年都失去了参议院的多数席位。

在前一种情况下，就连特朗普本人也承认，他发起的“窃取选举”运动可能影响了佐治亚州关键决选的投票率。而在后一种情况下，特朗普为自己的党派背负了一批他支持的、能力平庸的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）候选人，这些候选人最终输掉了原本很有希望赢得的席位。

2026年会再次发生这种情况吗？

这看起来确实很有可能。而且最近的事态发展让这种可能性越来越大。

最明显的例子就是德克萨斯州的参议员竞选。但特朗普也让他的政党在佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州保住席位变得更加困难。

目前尚不清楚特朗普的介入是否会改变这些选举的最终结果。但如果多数党之争异常激烈，该党肯定会再次对特朗普的一些举措感到后悔。

特朗普本周表示，他对在五月份的决选中支持州检察长肯·帕克斯顿而不是参议员约翰·科宁“毫不后悔”。但他的党内许多人可能并不这么认为。

自那场残酷的决选以来，帕克斯顿的形象仍未得到修复，一些近期民调显示，他的支持率实际上有所下降。在大多数民调中，他的支持率都低于对手两位数——其中两项近期民调显示，他的支持率甚至落后对手约20个百分点——而且在三项不同的民调中，他落后民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科多达6个百分点。

科宁目前也不是什么受欢迎的政治人物。而且，从民主党人在阿拉斯加、爱荷华和俄亥俄等传统共和党州的竞争激烈程度来看，他可能也面临不小的挑战。但帕克斯顿的问题显而易见，而且非常严重：福克斯新闻最近的一项民调显示，在3月份初选中支持科宁的选民中，有20%的人转而支持塔拉里科。

（科宁至今仍未公开支持帕克斯顿。CNN记者帕特里克·斯维特克周五报道称，帕克斯顿私下里声称科宁希望他落败，而泄露的录音显示帕克斯顿这样说道。）

就连特朗普似乎也很清楚帕克斯顿作为候选人的不足之处，从他嘲讽帕克斯顿的外貌、穿着和谈吐就能看出这一点。帕克斯顿还背负着其他诸多包袱，包括弹劾和刑事指控。

初选后，普遍认为特朗普很可能会支持科宁，尽管科宁有时曾委婉地批评过特朗普，因为科宁更有可能保住席位。特朗普表示，他“很快”就会做出背书。

但特朗普却……没有。几周后，当帕克斯顿即将赢得决选时，特朗普转而支持他，最终敲定了协议。

如果帕克斯顿败选，民主党仅获得微弱多数，那么对科宁的不支持可能会成为 2026 年大选的关键时刻。

当然，科宁并不是唯一一位被特朗普排挤的共和党参议员。

北卡罗来纳州参议员汤姆·蒂利斯曾公开表示，特朗普的攻击如何促使他退出政坛。在他的新书中，他回忆起特朗普在社交媒体上攻击他并表示正在寻找其他候选人后，他立即决定退休的经过。

据书中记载，他给特朗普发短信说：“总统先生，现在是时候开始寻找我的继任者了。”

特朗普回应道：“我就是！DJT。”

这对共和党来说并非好事。蒂利斯落选后，颇受欢迎的民主党前州长罗伊·库珀当选。如今看来，尽管特朗普在其三次总统选举中都赢得了北卡罗来纳州，共和党似乎还是要放弃该州。

在这种环境下，蒂利斯与库珀的竞争也可能异常艰难。但这前提是库珀真的向他发起挑战。而且，蒂利斯至少会受益于现任优势。

毫无疑问，他比共和党力捧的前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利更具威慑力。沃特利在埃隆大学和福克斯新闻最近的高质量民调中支持率持续下滑。

早在六月份，特朗普就决定在共和党参议员决选中支持佐治亚州众议员迈克·柯林斯，而不是前田纳西大学橄榄球教练德里克·杜利。考虑到柯林斯是更符合“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）理念的候选人，而杜利则得到了佐治亚州州长布莱恩·坎普的支持（坎普曾多次与特朗普发生冲突），特朗普的这一决定也合情合理。

但即便在当时，鉴于柯林斯过去的一些争议事件，很明显他可能是一个有问题的候选人。而此后情况变得更加糟糕，一系列关于柯林斯与白人民族主义者之间明显联系的披露更是加剧了这种情况。

民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫人气很高，所以杜利不太可能让这场选举变得势均力敌。但就像在北卡罗来纳州一样，特朗普很可能已经锁定了胜局。而且也像在北卡罗来纳州一样，种种迹象表明共和党可能要放弃了。

这份名单上最新增加的这个州，共和党人实际上可能不会输。但南卡罗来纳州仍然给他们带来了不必要的麻烦。

在特朗普2024年以18个百分点的优势赢得该州之际，共和党内部出现了一些担忧。共和党最近决定斥资500万美元，支持任命的参议员达琳·格雷厄姆（Darline Graham）对抗民主党候选人安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）。而特朗普最近则在社交媒体上用反跨性别者的侮辱性言论攻击安德鲁斯。

已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的妹妹格雷厄姆，在特朗普7月力挺她接替哥哥的参议员职位后，从几乎默默无闻的境地一跃成为公众人物。随后，两人决定她也应该竞选完整任期。尽管期间经历了一些波折，但她最终凭借特朗普的背书赢得了初选决胜轮。

提拔一位政坛新人，而不是那些等待多年才获得参议院空缺席位的资深政客，这引起了党内建制派的强烈不满。甚至有传言说，共和党选民可能会把选票投给在初选中惜败给格雷厄姆的众议员拉尔夫·诺曼。

目前选情究竟如何还不明朗，我们还在等待高质量的民调结果。但特朗普强推格雷厄姆加入共和党的做法从一开始就显得十分蹊跷。特朗普似乎并没有什么理由要插手此事。

现在，该党正在承受由此带来的后果。

这一切最令人震惊之处在于，特朗普及其政治团队并非首次经历这种情况。他们应该清楚提名不称职的候选人会带来哪些弊端，因为这在过去几年里让他们付出了代价。他们应该明白，特朗普的所作所为使得赢得参议院席位变得更加困难。

大量证据表明，特朗普试图推翻2020年大选结果的种种举动，导致共和党在2021年1月5日举行的佐治亚州决选中失利。在保守派势力强大的地区，投票率下降幅度尤为显著。此前，共和党在佐治亚州的决选中几乎总是能够取得进展，但这次却反而失利了。

特朗普在后来的采访中甚至承认，共和党选民因为所谓的选民舞弊（他基本上是凭空捏造的）而感到失望。他还说，由于当时他很生气，所以没有像他本可以做的那样强烈敦促选民信任佐治亚州的选举官员。

由于2021年1月6日决选后几个小时内发生的事情，特朗普才得以免于真正为此承担责任。但令人惊讶的是，他如此坦率地承认，他可能在导致其所在政党失去参议院多数席位方面发挥了作用——即使他认为自己这样做是出于正当理由。

然而，到了2022年，他仍然做出了一系列令人费解的代言决定。而现在，这种情况在某种程度上又重演了。

当然，2026 年的不同之处在于，特朗普作为总统，实际上必须与掌控参议院多数席位的人打交道。