Kalshi scrutinizing longshot bets that correctly predicted Trump’s next press secretary

Allison Robbert/AP/File

Kalshi is scrutinizing a handful of small bets that correctly predicted Katie Zacharia would be the next White House press secretary, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The three trades were all under $100, and one was for a mere $19, the person said. But when the trades were placed, Zacharia was only trading at a 1% likelihood to get the White House post, which means the bets would net thousands of dollars.

A Kalshi spokesperson declined to comment. CNN has reached out to the White House for comment.

The trades surrounding Zacharia’s selection as press secretary took place on so-called “knowable markets,” which experts say are more susceptible to insider trading than markets for sports or election outcomes because the answers are knowable in advance.

A watchdog report published on Friday by the nonpartisan Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that super-specific “knowable” markets related to the 2026 midterm elections have attracted more than $20 million in trading volume.

Company leaders at Kalshi have previously stressed their efforts to crack down on insider trading and their cooperation with federal prosecutors and regulators. They say they have robust surveillance tools that routinely examine unexpected spikes in markets – as clearly happened with the Zacharia market.

Terry Wyatt/Getty Images/2521 Entertainment

The Wall Street Journal first reported the potentially suspicious trades.

CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. CNN editorial employees are not permitted to trade on prediction platforms.

The trades around Zacharia’s selection were far smaller than other recent high-profile insider trading cases.

Trump’s White House teleprompter operator profited more than $107,000 from unlawful bets on Kalshi about what Trump would say at public events. (He later paid a fine to settle a federal probe.) And a special forces soldier is facing criminal charges for allegedly making $400,000 on Polymarket from the raid to capture Venezuela’s leader. (He has pleaded not guilty.)

However, just because a trade is small, it can still be insider trading and possibly break the law.

“Insider information is often timely,” said Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, a researcher at the Anti-Corruption Data Collective. “There’s a small window someone can bet. Not every American has $10,000 in a bank account that they can put on Kalshi within a few hours before the prices change.”

CNN’s Michael Williams contributed to this report.

艾莉森·罗伯特/美联社/档案照片

据一位知情人士透露，卡尔希正在仔细审查几笔小额赌注，这些赌注正确预测了凯蒂·扎卡里亚将成为下一任白宫新闻秘书。

据知情人士透露，这三笔交易的单笔金额均低于100美元，其中一笔甚至只有19美元。但当时扎卡里亚当选总统的概率只有1%，这意味着这些赌注最终能带来数千美元的收益。

卡尔希的一位发言人拒绝置评。CNN已联系白宫寻求置评。

围绕扎卡里亚被选为新闻秘书的交易发生在所谓的“可知市场”上，专家表示，这些市场比体育或选举结果市场更容易受到内幕交易的影响，因为答案是可以提前知道的。

无党派反腐败数据联盟周五发布的一份监督报告显示，与 2026 年中期选举相关的非常具体的“可知”市场已吸引了超过 2000 万美元的交易量。

Kalshi公司领导层此前曾强调，他们致力于打击内幕交易，并与联邦检察官和监管机构密切合作。他们表示，公司拥有强大的监控工具，能够定期监测市场异常波动——正如Zacharia市场的情况一样。

Terry Wyatt/Getty Images/2521 Entertainment

《华尔街日报》率先报道了这些可能存在可疑的交易。

CNN与Kalshi建立了合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件。CNN编辑人员不得在预测平台上进行交易。

扎卡里亚选秀前后的交易规模远小于近期其他备受瞩目的内幕交易案件。

特朗普的白宫提词器操作员卡尔希（Kalshi）通过非法赌博获利超过10.7万美元，赌注内容是特朗普在公开场合会说什么。（他后来支付了罚款以了结联邦调查。）此外，一名特种部队士兵因涉嫌在抓捕委内瑞拉领导人的行动中，通过Polymarket平台非法获利40万美​​元而面临刑事指控。（他已否认所有指控。）

然而，即使交易金额很小，也可能构成内幕交易，甚至可能触犯法律。

“内幕消息往往很及时，”反腐败数据联盟的研究员米歇尔·肯德勒-克雷奇说。“下注的时间窗口很短。并非每个美国人都有1万美元的存款，可以在卡尔希的股价变动前几个小时内全部押注。”

CNN的迈克尔·威廉姆斯对本报道亦有贡献。