AI hurricane models were front and centre as Isaias headed toward land

AI models trained on decades of historical weather data can quickly simulate hundreds of scenarios, comparing real-time global conditions to similar patterns from the past. — Unsplash

As Hurricane Isaias approached the Gulf Coast this week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were confronted with a striking split in their data.

The traditional models, the ones that for decades have used physics to help experienced meteorologists understand where a hurricane is most likely to go, had been projecting a western path toward Alabama and Mississippi. But a suite of new experimental models that used artificial intelligence (AI) were pushing the forecast path farther east, toward Pensacola, Florida.

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基于数十年历史气象数据训练的人工智能模型可以快速模拟数百种场景，将实时全球天气状况与过去类似的模式进行比较。—— Unsplash

本周，随着飓风伊萨亚斯逼近墨西哥湾沿岸，美国国家飓风中心的预报员们发现他们的数据出现了明显的分歧。

传统的飓风路径预测模型——几十年来一直运用物理学原理帮助经验丰富的气象学家预测飓风最可能的路径——一直预测飓风会向西移动，朝向阿拉巴马州和密西西比州。但一系列运用人工智能（AI）的新型实验模型却将预测路径向东推移，朝向佛罗里达州的彭萨科拉。

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