Fed officials are warning of more pain. Many Americans are already feeling it

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Four years ago, with inflation at multi-decade highs, then-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a blunt message to Americans: Getting inflation under control would come at a cost.

The Fed needed to act “forcefully,” Powell told attendees at a key central banker conference that August. Doing so, he cautioned, would bring “some pain” for consumers.

Now, with the Fed back to raising interest rates for the first time in three years, a familiar warning about the economic fallout is resurfacing.

Inflation across the country is being driven primarily by fuel prices, which have skyrocketed since the war with Iran broke out in February. The Fed has little control over oil production, but by raising interest rates, it is seeking to prevent higher energy costs from spilling over into other parts of the economy and fueling broader inflation.

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While this type of supply-driven inflation may be easier to bring under control than the post-pandemic demand-driven inflation, “it won’t be painless either,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said last month.

For central bankers, the challenge is balancing two competing priorities: keeping inflation in check and preserving a healthy labor market. When price increases become too rapid, the Fed typically raises interest rates, making borrowing more expensive for consumers and businesses. That, in turn, can curb spending and cool demand, easing pressure on prices.

But that slowdown can come at a cost to workers, often leading to weaker hiring, fewer job openings, and, in some cases, job losses, as businesses struggle with higher borrowing costs.

“Inflation is the disease. And now the Fed comes with a cure: higher interest rates,” Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at US Bank, said. “I don’t know which is more painful because they both hurt.”

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Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of US economic activity, making it a key driver of growth. If Americans pull back — either because prices are eating up more of their budgets or because higher borrowing costs force them to set aside more money for expenses such as a home purchase — the economy could slow. In a worst-case scenario, that pullback could help tip the economy into a recession, Bovino told CNN.

For now, though, economic pain isn’t being felt equally . Americans with substantial investments in the stock market, which is hovering near record highs , may be doing just fine. Those who rely more heavily on their paychecks to cover everyday expenses have less of a cushion against rising prices.

“Those are the people being hurt,” she said.

With the risks of higher interest rates in mind, a growing chorus of Fed officials have recently been advocating for a more patient approach as they tackle the issue of inflation. Rather than trying to get a head start at fighting the potential for more or broader-based inflation, several central bankers have said they’d like more time to observe how economic conditions evolve to get a better idea of how many more rate hikes, if any, are needed.

“There is no need for urgency,” New York Fed President John Williams said last month.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed that sentiment. “Any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” he said earlier this month.

But waiting to act carries risks of its own. With the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge more than a percentage point above its 2% annual target, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that delaying action could make the fight against inflation even more painful.

“The longer inflation stays above our objective, the harder it will be for us to bring it back down, and the more pain that individuals and businesses are going to be experiencing,” Hammack said in an August CNBC interview.

For the Fed, the challenge is figuring out how much pain the economy can withstand — and which risk is worse: acting too soon or waiting too long. Either way, consumers are likely to pay the price.

The September Consumer Price Index report due Wednesday may give officials some valuable clues.

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四年前，通货膨胀率达到数十年来的最高水平，时任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔向美国民众发出了一条直截了当的信息：控制通货膨胀需要付出代价。

鲍威尔在当年8月的一次重要央行行长会议上告诉与会者，美联储需要采取“强有力的”行动。他同时警告说，这样做会给消费者带来“一些痛苦”。

现在，随着美联储三年来首次加息，关于经济衰退的熟悉警告再次浮出水面。

全国范围内的通货膨胀主要由燃油价格上涨推动，自2月份伊朗战争爆发以来，燃油价格一路飙升。美联储对石油生产几乎没有控制权，但通过提高利率，它试图阻止能源成本上涨蔓延到经济的其他领域，从而避免加剧更广泛的通货膨胀。

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芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比上个月表示，虽然这种供给驱动型通胀可能比疫情后需求驱动型通胀更容易控制，“但这也不会毫无痛苦”。

对央行行长而言，挑战在于平衡两项相互冲突的优先事项：控制通胀和维护健康的劳动力市场。当物价上涨过快时，美联储通常会提高利率，增加消费者和企业的借贷成本。这反过来可以抑制支出，冷却需求，从而缓解物价上涨的压力。

但这种经济放缓可能会给劳动者带来损失，往往会导致招聘力度减弱、职位空缺减少，在某些情况下还会导致失业，因为企业难以应对更高的借贷成本。

“通货膨胀是症结所在。而现在美联储带来的却是良方：提高利率，”美国银行首席经济学家贝丝·安·博维诺表示。“我不知道哪个更痛苦，因为它们都伤人。”

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消费支出约占美国经济活动的三分之二，是经济增长的关键驱动力。如果美国人减少消费——无论是由于物价上涨导致预算支出增加，还是由于借贷成本上升迫使他们为购房等支出预留更多资金——经济增长都可能放缓。博维诺告诉CNN，在最糟糕的情况下，这种消费减少可能导致经济陷入衰退。

然而，目前经济衰退带来的冲击并非人人平等。那些在股市（目前接近历史高位）拥有大量投资的美国人或许日子过得还不错。而那些主要依靠工资收入来支付日常开支的人，面对物价上涨的冲击则较为脆弱。

“那些人才是真正受到伤害的人，”她说。

考虑到利率上升的风险，越来越多的美联储官员近期呼吁在应对通胀问题时采取更为耐心的态度。一些央行官员表示，他们希望有更多时间观察经济形势的发展，以便更好地判断是否需要加息以及加息幅度。他们并不急于采取措施应对可能出现的通胀加剧或通胀范围扩大。

纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯上个月表示：“没有必要采取紧急措施。”

美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊也表达了类似的观点。他本月早些时候表示：“任何未来的政策调整都应该通过仔细分析数据趋势、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡来决定。”

但等待行动也存在风险。由于美联储首选的通胀指标比其2%的年度目标高出1个百分点以上，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克警告说，延迟采取行动可能会使抗击通胀的斗争更加艰难。

哈马克在 8 月份接受 CNBC 采访时表示：“通胀率高于我们目标的时间越长，我们就越难将其降下来，个人和企业将遭受的痛苦也就越大。”

对美联储而言，挑战在于如何判断经济能够承受多大的冲击——以及哪种风险更大：行动过早还是等待过久。无论哪种情况，最终都可能由消费者承担后果。

将于周三发布的9月份消费者价格指数报告或许能为官员们提供一些有价值的线索。