How the Iran war could make Trump an accidental climate president

The Iran war was supposed to be a short, sharp strike that brought down the regime within a few weeks . Instead, the US finds itself enmeshed in a conflict that’s upending the world’s energy system.

As oil and gas prices soar, there have been noticeable shifts toward clean energy, and it’s raised a profoundly weird question: Could this war make President Donald Trump an accidental climate president, at least on the global stage?

It would be a deep irony, if so. Trump is the climate-denier-in-chief. He has called global warming a “hoax,” clean energy a “ scam,” pushed fossil fuels, and unraveled a slew of climate and environmental protections .

But as the war grinds into its eighth month, it’s highlighting the immense vulnerability of fossil fuels to geopolitical instability. There are signs of global clean energy moves, even as the picture remains complex, with some countries scrambling for coal instead .

The longer the war continues, some experts say, the bigger the impact it could have on undermining global oil and gas demand.

“With all (Trump’s) efforts to encourage fossil fuel use, he might end up accelerating their phase down instead,” said Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution.

Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/AP

The launch of the US and Israel’s war on Iran in February led to the biggest oil shock in history. Iran strangled the Strait of Hormuz , a vital waterway that transported roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, sending the cost of a barrel of oil surging over $100.

Many analysts predicted the price spike would be short-term, but it has persisted even as Iran’s chokehold over the strait has loosened. Shipping costs to get oil through the Strait of Hormuz have surge d, and new fronts are opening up in the conflict, including attacks by Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi oil facilities and tankers.

It’s all affecting demand. Back in January, the International Energy Agency forecast global oil demand would rise by 930,000 barrels per day in 2026. By September, the picture had changed dramatically. The IEA now forecasts a decline of 2.5 million barrels a day due to the “impasse” in negotiations between the US and Iran.

Less oil means less planet-warming pollution. Global fossil fuel emissions are on track to fall around 0.5% in 2026, according to an analysis from Carbon Brief, a non-profit climate change publication. It would mark the first fall since 2020, when the Covid pandemic ground the world to a halt.

It also means big shifts in transportation, where most of the world’s oil goes. People are driving and flying less, but these are likely temporary changes, said Sverre Alvik, vice president and energy transition outlook director at DNV, a Norway-based consultancy. Much more permanent are the vehicles people are buying.

Global sales of electric vehicles were up 4% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the IEA, which said the Middle East crisis “has clearly reinforced the case for EVs as a way to address energy security and fuel cost concerns.”

Feature China/Future Publishing/Getty Images

Australia and parts of Asia have seen EV booms, as has Europe, where sales hit record highs in 2026, according to a report from the non-profit advocacy group Transport & Environment. Fuel prices were a key factor, with diesel reaching particularly painful highs , up 38% since the start of the war.

The US bucks the trend, however. EV sales have slumped as the Trump administration has cut support for them and effectively banned cheaper Chinese models. They’re down more than 30% this year so far, according to research firm Motor Intelligence.

Then there’s natural gas. The conflict has dealt “a major supply shock” to the world’s gas markets, according to the IEA, which projects global demand will shrink by around 0.5% in 2026.

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Countries are seeking alternatives, with dozens implementing policies to switch from fossil fuels to clean power since the war started. Harnessing the sun and wind doesn’t rely on a few volatile chokepoints in the same way as oil and gas.

“The new geopolitics of energy is driving clean energy solutions and electrification,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Global Energy, Climate, and Sustainability Lab at New York University.

Investment in solar capacity in Southeast Asian countries, for example, has roughly quadrupled in the first two quarters of this year, according to data from the Rhodium Group, an independent research provider. Most of the region’s liquified natural gas comes from the Gulf, so they had to “make a quicker pivot,” said Tess Carter, an associate director for energy and climate at Rhodium.

It will take time to see real evidence of an accelerating shift away from oil and gas, said Gross. A wholesale move to EVs and widespread changes in grid-scale electricity are lengthy processes. “But I do expect that it is coming,” Gross said.

Jam Sta Rosa/AFP/Getty Images

That said, there is a catch. The transition to alternative energy options has not just meant renewables; some countries have turned to coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. Global coal demand is now projected to rise by 1.2% in 2026, a reversal of earlier forecasts which had projected a small decline.

There is also the possibility that oil and gas demand could come swinging back — the IEA projects a recovery for oil in 2027. And we’ve been here before on big global disruptions. Some environmentalists hoped the pandemic would lead to a clean energy shift, instead, fossil fuel demand surged in 2021.

How permanent the shifts are may depend on how long the conflict endures. For every month it lasts, the probability of permanent oil “demand destruction” increases, a DNV analysis found. “If the war lasts for four years, for example, then our analysis shows that oil demand will never resume to the level we had in 2025,” DNV’s Alvik said.

Some are hopeful that whatever happens, more permanent changes are already ingrained. Iran has shown drones and missiles are all that’s needed to strangle a waterway — not a powerful navy. “The world cannot unsee what has happened, and oil and natural gas supply seem much more insecure than they did before the war,” said Gross of the Brookings Institution.

Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University, said the conflict “could have a sustained effect because dozens of countries are now promoting EV incentives, charging infrastructure and electrification in general.”

Still, he finds the notion of Trump as an accidental climate president “ridiculous.” He may have hastened clean energy uptake overseas, but he has gutted green energy in the US and “set us back decades,” Jackson said.

“The forces driving green energy around the world — cleaner, cheaper fuels — will ultimately prevail despite him.”

伊朗战争原本应该是一场短暂而猛烈的打击，在几周内推翻伊朗政权。然而，美国却发现自己深陷一场正在颠覆世界能源体系的冲突之中。

随着石油和天然气价格飙升，人们明显转向清洁能源，这引发了一个非常奇怪的问题：这场战争是否会使唐纳德·特朗普总统意外地成为一位气候总统，至少在全球舞台上？

如果真是这样，那将是一个莫大的讽刺。特朗普是气候变化否认论的头号人物。他曾称全球变暖是“骗局”，清洁能源是“骗局”，大力推广化石燃料，并废除了一系列气候和环境保护措施。

但随着战争进入第八个月，化石燃料极易受到地缘政治不稳定的影响。尽管形势依然复杂，一些国家甚至转而争相使用煤炭，但全球清洁能源转型的迹象已经显现。

一些专家表示，战争持续的时间越长，对全球石油和天然气需求造成的破坏性影响就越大。

“尽管特朗普竭尽全力鼓励使用化石燃料，但他最终可能会加速化石燃料的逐步淘汰，”布鲁金斯学会能源安全与气候倡议主任萨曼莎·格罗斯说。

阿米尔侯赛因·霍尔古伊/ISNA/美联社

今年2月，美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争，引发了历史上最严重的石油危机。伊朗封锁了霍尔木兹海峡——这条至关重要的水道运输着全球约五分之一的石油和天然气——导致每桶石油价格飙升至100美元以上。

许多分析人士预测油价飙升只是暂时的，但即便伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制有所放松，油价依然居高不下。通过霍尔木兹海峡运输石油的成本大幅上涨，冲突也出现了新的战线，包括伊朗支持的胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯石油设施和油轮的袭击。

这一切都在影响需求。今年1月，国际能源署预测，到2026年，全球石油需求将增加93万桶/日。但到了9月，情况发生了巨大变化。由于美伊谈判陷入僵局，国际能源署现在预测全球石油需求将下降250万桶/日。

石油消耗减少意味着导致全球变暖的污染减少。据非营利气候变化机构Carbon Brief的分析，全球化石燃料排放量有望在2026年下降约0.5%。这将是自​​2020年新冠疫情导致全球经济停摆以来的首次下降。

这也意味着交通运输方式将发生巨大转变，而世界上大部分石油都流向了交通运输领域。挪威咨询公司DNV的副总裁兼能源转型展望总监斯韦勒·阿尔维克表示，人们的驾车和飞行次数正在减少，但这些变化很可能是暂时的。人们购买的车辆的变化则更为持久。

国际能源署表示，2026 年第二季度全球电动汽车销量增长了 4%。该机构还表示，中东危机“显然强化了电动汽车作为解决能源安全和燃料成本问题的一种方式的必要性”。

图片来源：中国/未来出版/盖蒂图片社

据非营利倡导组织“交通与环境”（Transport & Environment）的一份报告显示，澳大利亚和亚洲部分地区以及欧洲的电动汽车市场都经历了蓬勃发展，欧洲的电动汽车销量在2026年创下历史新高。燃油价格是推动电动汽车普及的关键因素，尤其是柴油价格飙升，自二战开始以来上涨了38%。

然而，美国的情况却与此相反。由于特朗普政府削减了对电动汽车的支持，并实际上禁止了价格更低的中国车型进入美国市场，美国电动汽车的销量大幅下滑。据市场研究公司Motor Intelligence的数据显示，今年迄今为止，美国电动汽车的销量已下降超过30%。

还有天然气。国际能源署表示，这场冲突给世界天然气市场带来了“重大供应冲击”，并预测到2026年全球天然气需求将下降约0.5%。

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各国都在寻求替代能源，自战争爆发以来，已有数十个国家实施政策，从化石燃料转向清洁能源。利用太阳能和风能不像石油和天然气那样依赖于少数几个不稳定的供应瓶颈。

“新的能源地缘政治正在推动清洁能源解决方案和电气化，”纽约大学全球能源、气候和可持续发展实验室主任艾米·迈尔斯·贾菲说。

例如，据独立研究机构罗迪姆集团（Rhodium Group）的数据显示，今年前两个季度，东南亚国家的太阳能发电投资额增长了近四倍。罗迪姆集团能源与气候副总监泰丝·卡特（Tess Carter）表示，该地区的大部分液化天然气来自墨西哥湾，因此他们不得不“更快地转型”。

格罗斯表示，要看到经济加速摆脱对石油和天然气依赖的真正迹象，还需要时间。全面转向电动汽车以及电网级电力系统的广泛变革都是漫长的过程。“但我相信这一天终会到来，”格罗斯说道。

Jam Sta Rosa/AFP/Getty Images

话虽如此，但其中也存在问题。向替代能源转型并非仅仅意味着可再生能源；一些国家又开始使用煤炭——污染最严重的化石燃料。目前预计，到2026年，全球煤炭需求将增长1.2%，这与此前预测的小幅下降截然相反。

石油和天然气需求也有可能反弹——国际能源署预测石油需求将在2027年复苏。我们以前也经历过类似的全球性动荡。一些环保人士曾希望疫情能促使能源结构向清洁能源转型，但事与愿违，2021年化石燃料需求激增。

这些变化的持久性可能取决于冲突持续的时间。DNV的一项分析发现，冲突每持续一个月，石油需求永久性“崩溃”的可能性就会增加。DNV的阿尔维克表示：“例如，如果战争持续四年，那么我们的分析表明，石油需求将永远无法恢复到2025年的水平。”

一些人抱有希望，认为无论未来如何，更持久的改变已经根深蒂固。伊朗已经证明，只需无人机和导弹就能扼杀一条水道，而无需一支强大的海军。“世界无法对已经发生的事情视而不见，石油和天然气的供应似乎比战前更加不安全，”布鲁金斯学会的格罗斯说道。

斯坦福大学气候科学家罗布·杰克逊表示，这场冲突“可能会产生持续的影响，因为现在有数十个国家正在推广电动汽车激励措施、充电基础设施和电气化。”

不过，他认为特朗普是“意外的气候总统”这种说法“荒谬至极”。杰克逊说，特朗普或许加速了海外清洁能源的普及，但他却摧毁了美国的绿色能源，并“让我们倒退了几十年”。

“尽管他可能面临挑战，但推动全球绿色能源发展的力量——更清洁、更便宜的燃料——最终仍将取得胜利。”