Republicans need evangelicals to turn out in the midterms. Faith leaders are sounding the alarm they may not

Conservative leaders are sounding the alarm that more needs to be done in the final weeks before the midterm elections to educate and mobilize White evangelicals, a critical voting bloc in the president’s coalition. Republicans fear if they stay home, that could hand victories to Democrats in key races across the country with control of Congress at stake.

“I am not aware of any party machine that is at work right now to turn out evangelical voters,” one conservative evangelical pastor in Texas told CNN on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss the risks for Republicans in the election. “Maybe they are assuming they are going to show up, but that is a dangerous assumption.”

There’s little evidence national Republicans are doing much through their campaign committees to specifically target and mobilize the evangelical vote. Instead, grassroots mobilization is falling largely to individual churches and groups like the Faith and Freedom Coalition, which announced a get-out-the-vote operation aimed at turning out “drop-off voters” — evangelicals who vote in presidential elections but don’t always show up in the midterms.

At the same time, Democrats are mounting their own efforts to win over White Christian voters, making the argument that their party and priorities are aligned with faith-based values and recruiting candidates, including pastors, whose religion is a key part of their identity.

Turning out the White evangelical vote will be critical to Republicans’ success in key races across the South, from Texas to Georgia to Kansas and even places like South Carolina, where the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sister, Darline Graham , is facing off against Democrat Annie Andrews, who has mounted a more competitive campaign than Republicans expected.

In 2016, 2020 and 2024, roughly 8 in 10 White evangelicals cast ballots for President Donald Trump nationally. While they make up only 13% of the country’s population, they vote in such large numbers that they often account for roughly 20% of the electorate in any given election, according to the Public Religion Research Institute.

“The evangelical vote is Trump’s strongest coalition. Thirty-eight percent of his voters were White evangelicals. [Republicans] cannot win — I don’t care where you are in the country — without the evangelical vote,” said Ryan Burge, a professor at the John C. Danforth Center on Religion and Politics at Washington University in St. Louis.

But at a moment when gas and grocery prices are high, the president’s approval rating is underwater, and enthusiasm among Republicans is tepid, the 2026 election could be a critical test of whether White evangelicals still have enough faith in the GOP to turn out in full force on Election Day.

“Evangelicals have to put gas in their cars just like everybody else. They gotta buy groceries just like everyone,” said North Carolina Rep. Mark Harris, a former pastor. “But I do think evangelical voters understand what is happening here.”

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In recent weeks, national faith leaders like Southern Baptist Convention President Willy Rice have called on pastors to “step up” from the pulpit to educate their parishioners about what is at stake in the midterms. Several pastors told CNN they have mounted their own efforts to ensure parishioners and fellow pastors are mobilizing voters.

Rice told CNN in an interview that the economy is a challenge for evangelicals but that “we shouldn’t be thinking about the immediate stresses as much as we should be thinking about the underlying foundational issues; about what is right and wrong and what is true and untrue. It’s a big ask but we should make it.”

Chad Connelly, who once served as the national director of faith engagement at the Republican National Committee, has spent the last two months meeting with pastors in more than 20 states to educate them on how to discuss these issues from the pulpit.

And after more than 80 pastor meetings, he says more work still needs to be done.

“The evangelical turnout is really a difference maker,” Connelly said. “I don’t think the party has ever done enough in this realm.”

Ralph Reed, the founder and chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, acknowledged that he has concerns, but insisted his organization is working hard to ensure evangelical voters who have skipped past midterm elections show up at the polls.

“Look, I’m paid to worry. You know, I worry as an occupational hazard and as a professional obligation,” he said. “We’re sailing into headwinds, and we all understand that, we all know the history of midterms for the party holding the White House. But you know, I’m confident that we will do our job and that we will deliver this vote, and we will deliver it in larger numbers than is typical for a midterm election.”

Reed admitted that the economy is one of those difficult headwinds.

“Man does not live by bread alone, but man needs bread to live,” he said. “So, whenever you’re dealing with issues of inflation, and, in this case, we believe very strongly, temporarily higher gas prices than we would like to see, and that the president would like to see, that impacts people in their daily lives, and sure, it has an impact.”

But some of the efforts are also just being left to individual pastors.

“A voter registration table sits at the lobby at our church,” said James Buntrock, the associate pastor at Glorious Way Church in Houston and the executive director of My God Votes.

The issue of turning out the evangelical vote has taken on major importance in Texas.

In a recent Sunday sermon, pastor Steve Riggle stood at the front of his church with a fact sheet and a stark warning for his congregants about Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico’s views on Christianity.

“This is not a political issue. It is not a Democrat issue or a Republican issue. This is a truth issue,” he warned. “A cunning deceiver does not come and make an announcement, ‘I am here to lead you away from God.’ What he will say is ‘Let me help you understand what God really means.’”

Voters are deciding between Talarico, a seminary student who has made faith a central component of his campaign but has often spoken in ways that evangelical leaders warn is counter to the Bible’s teachings, and Ken Paxton, the state attorney general whose wife divorced him on “ biblical grounds ” and who faced impeachment from his Republican colleagues in the Texas statehouse.

Laredo pastor Jorge Tovar told CNN that he is having conversations directly with his parishioners about the choice.

“As spiritual leaders we try to inform them and show them the facts,” he said.

Pressed on how he advises parishioners who may be conservative but have trepidation voting for Paxton, Tovar told CNN, “It’s just like President Trump as well. He has a past just like Attorney General Paxton, but when it comes to politics, people need to look at their policies and their platforms.”

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The other Texas pastor whom CNN spoke to on the condition of anonymity told CNN they were walking a fine line on how they talk to parishioners about the Senate race.

“My calling in life is not to generate votes for Ken Paxton or anyone else,” they said.

Reed conceded that Texas would have likely been an easier seat for Republicans to hold if their candidate was incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton defeated Cornyn in a runoff shortly after securing the president’s endorsement.

“Everyone knew that if Ken Paxton was nominated that this was going to be a race within the margin of error, and it was going to be a barn burner,” Reed said. “Everybody knew that going in. … I think even had Cornyn won that primary this race would have been competitive. Would it have been this competitive? Probably not.”

Democrats have made a more aggressive play to recapture White Christian voters in recent months, seizing on rising prices and a social justice message to begin to make the argument that the GOP isn’t the only party aligned with Christian values.

Democrats are running candidates — such as Talarico in Texas, Methodist megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton in Kansas and ministers Sarah Trone Garriott and Lindsay James in Iowa congressional districts — they hope can start to close the so-called God gap in states where the Christian vote can make a big difference on Election Day.

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Democrats believe they can make a play for Christian voters by broadening the discussion beyond debates over issues like abortion or LGBTQ rights, which they have been on the losing side of with White evangelical voters. Instead, Democrats’ message is more focused on “loving thy neighbor” and reflecting that as a central tenet of Christianity that supports their positions on reigning in immigration enforcement and pushing back on cuts to healthcare.

But conservative evangelical leaders aren’t ceding what has traditionally been a winning message for them just yet.

“I think the left’s words are mobilizing people far more than the conservative party is doing,” Connelly said. “They may have overplayed their hand in saying that I am one of you.”

Reed added, “I’m not concerned about it at all.”

On the trail, Republicans have attacked Democratic clergy candidates as “Pastors in Name Only.” Paxton often draws attention to Talarico’s past comments about his faith, including that he once said “God is nonbinary” and that Jesus was a “radical feminist,” as too extreme for many conservative churchgoers.

Talarico addressed the “nonbinary” comment on Fox earlier this year, saying, “I was being provocative with that statement. I get that. What I was trying to say is that you can’t use human categories to define God, and that’s not controversial theologically.”

In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall has attacked Hamilton’s job as a megachurch pastor and accused him in one ad of using “faith to fatten his wallet.”

Hamilton campaign spokesperson Tyson Brody pushed back on the attacks, saying in a statement, “Adam is proud to have build a congregation of 24,000 split equally between Republicans, Democrats.”

“It’s shameful Roger Marshall has repeatedly lied about the largest congregation in the state he represents, directly smearing congregants who voted for him in past elections.”

But evangelical leaders and GOP opponents across the country are making different versions of the same argument that candidates like Talarico and Hamilton are twisting the Bible’s teachings to serve their own political purposes.

“I do think that people like James Talarico have used the Bible as a tool to help them get elected. The problem is they are reading from a different Bible then most people have ever heard of or seen,” said Jonathan Saenz, president of Texas Values.

Paxton campaign spokesman Madison Cercy echoed the sentiment in a statement to CNN. “Republicans across Texas are uniting behind the attorney general because they know the choice is between a proven fighter for their values and a radical who mocks those values,” she said.

Robert P. Jones, the president and founder of the Public Religion Research Institute, has done extensive research on White Christian voters. And while he believes evangelicals are likely to vote Republican if they show up to the polls on Election Day, he sees another warning sign for Republicans: White mainline Protestant voters.

“I don’t see any grand signs of evangelicals abandoning ship. If they have stuck with [Trump] this long through all the scandals, all the gaffes, all the policies, all the economic ups and downs, it is unclear to me what could possibly dislodge their support from him,” Jones told CNN. “But if you look at somewhere like Wisconsin or Michigan, where evangelicals are just 13% of the population and mainliners are 18% and White Catholics are 19%, then you are looking for a group who might sit it out or might switch their votes.”

In the last three presidential elections, roughly 6 out of 10 White mainline Protestant voters cast ballots for Trump, Jones said. But the group is seen as far more gettable for Democrats in part because it is more politically diverse.

“If I were a Republican strategist looking at the map, I would be worried about the other White Christians,” Jones said. “They are not as tethered to the president. In almost all the toss-ups I am looking at, even if Republicans gets their typical support from evangelicals, if they lose 10 points of support from the White mainline and White Catholic support, that could be decisive in all of these races.”

保守派领袖发出警告，在中期选举前的最后几周，必须采取更多措施来教育和动员白人福音派选民，他们是总统联盟中至关重要的投票群体。共和党人担心，如果白人福音派选民不去投票，可能会让民主党在全国各地的关键选区赢得胜利，而这些选区将决定国会的控制权。

“我不知道现在有任何政党机器在运作，试图动员福音派选民，”一位德克萨斯州的保守派福音派牧师在匿名接受CNN采访时表示，他希望能够畅所欲言地讨论共和党在这次选举中面临的风险。“也许他们认为这些选民会出来投票，但这是一种危险的假设。”

几乎没有证据表明共和党全国委员会通过其竞选委员会采取了太多措施来专门争取和动员福音派选民。相反，基层动员主要依靠各个教会和团体，例如“信仰与自由联盟”。该联盟宣布了一项旨在动员“流失选民”（即那些在总统选举中投票但在中期选举中不常投票的福音派选民）的投票动员行动。

与此同时，民主党人也在加紧努力争取白人基督教选民的支持，他们声称自己的政党和优先事项与基于信仰的价值观相一致，并招募候选人，包括牧师，因为宗教是他们身份认同的关键部分。

争取白人福音派选民的投票对于共和党在南方各州的关键选举中取得成功至关重要，从德克萨斯州到佐治亚州到堪萨斯州，甚至像南卡罗来纳州这样的地方也是如此。在南卡罗来纳州，已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的妹妹达琳·格雷厄姆正在与民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯对决，后者发起了一场比共和党人预期的更具竞争力的竞选活动。

2016年、2020年和2024年，大约十分之八的白人福音派基督徒在全国范围内投票支持唐纳德·特朗普总统。虽然他们只占美国人口的13%，但他们的投票人数众多，根据公共宗教研究所的数据，在任何一次选举中，他们通常占选民总数的20%左右。

“福音派选民是特朗普最强大的联盟。他的选民中有38%是白人福音派信徒。[共和党人]如果没有福音派选民的支持，就赢不了——我不管你身处美国哪个地方，”圣路易斯华盛顿大学约翰·C·丹福斯宗教与政治中心教授瑞安·伯格说道。

但在汽油和食品价格高企、总统支持率跌至谷底、共和党人热情不高之际，2026 年大选可能是对白人福音派是否仍然对共和党有足够的信心，从而在选举日全力投票的关键考验。

“福音派信徒也和其他人一样，需要给汽车加油，也需要买菜，”北卡罗来纳州众议员、前牧师马克·哈里斯说道，“但我认为福音派选民明白这里正在发生的事情。”

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近几周来，包括美南浸信会主席威利·赖斯在内的多位全国性宗教领袖呼吁牧师们“挺身而出”，在讲坛上向教友们讲解中期选举的利害关系。多位牧师告诉CNN，他们已经采取了各自的行动，确保教友和其他牧师积极动员选民。

赖斯在接受CNN采访时表示，经济形势对福音派信徒来说是一个挑战，但“我们不应该过多关注眼前的压力，而应该更多地思考根本性的问题；思考什么是对的，什么是错的，什么是真的，什么是假的。这要求很高，但我们应该努力做到。”

曾任共和党全国委员会信仰事务主任的查德·康纳利，在过去的两个月里与 20 多个州的牧师会面，向他们讲解如何在讲坛上讨论这些问题。

在召开了 80 多次牧师会议后，他表示仍有许多工作要做。

康奈利说：“福音派选民的投票率确实起到了决定性作用。我认为民主党在这方面做得还远远不够。”

信仰与自由联盟的创始人兼主席拉尔夫·里德承认他对此感到担忧，但他坚称，他的组织正在努力确保那些错过了中期选举的福音派选民能够到投票站投票。

“听着，我的工作就是操心。你知道，操心既是职业病，也是职业义务，”他说。“我们正逆风而行，我们都明白这一点，我们也都知道执政党在中期选举中的表现。但是，我相信我们能做好本职工作，我们能拿下这场选举，而且我们能赢得比以往中期选举更多的选票。”

里德承认，经济问题是诸多不利因素之一。

他说：“人活着不单靠面包，但人需要面包才能活着。所以，每当我们谈到通货膨胀问题时，比如我们强烈认为的暂时性高油价，高于我们和总统都希望看到的水平，这肯定会影响人们的日常生活。”

但有些工作也仅仅交给了个别牧师来完成。

“我们教堂的大厅里摆放着选民登记桌，”休斯顿荣耀之路教堂的副牧师兼“我的上帝投票”组织的执行主任詹姆斯·邦特罗克说道。

在德克萨斯州，争取福音派选民的支持已成为一个至关重要的问题。

在最近的一次周日布道中，史蒂夫·里格尔牧师站在教堂前面，拿着一份情况说明书，向他的教友们发出严厉警告，提醒他们民主党参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科对基督教的看法。

“这不是政治问题，也不是民主党或共和党的问题，而是真理的问题，”他警告说。“狡猾的骗子不会直接宣称‘我来引诱你们背离上帝’，而是会说‘让我帮助你们理解上帝的真正含义’。”

选民们正在塔拉里科和肯·帕克斯顿之间做出选择。塔拉里科是一名神学院学生，他将信仰作为竞选的核心组成部分，但他经常发表一些福音派领袖警告说违背圣经教义的言论；而肯·帕克斯顿是州检察长，他的妻子以“圣经理由”与他离婚，他还面临着德克萨斯州议会共和党同僚的弹劾。

拉雷多牧师豪尔赫·托瓦尔告诉 CNN，他正在就这一选择直接与他的教区居民进行对话。

他说：“作为精神领袖，我们努力向他们传达信息，并向他们展示事实。”

当被问及如何建议那些可能持保守立场但又对投票给帕克斯顿犹豫不决的教区居民时，托瓦尔告诉CNN：“这和特朗普总统的情况很相似。他和帕克斯顿总检察长一样，都有着不光彩的过去，但说到政治，人们需要关注他们的政策和政纲。”

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CNN采访的另一位德克萨斯州牧师匿名告诉CNN，他们在与教区居民谈论参议院竞选时，如履薄冰。

他们说：“我的人生使命不是为肯·帕克斯顿或其他任何人拉票。”

里德承认，如果共和党候选人是现任参议员约翰·科宁，那么德克萨斯州的席位对共和党来说可能更容易保住。帕克斯顿在获得总统背书后不久，便在决选中击败了科宁。

“大家都知道，如果肯·帕克斯顿获得提名，这场选举的胜负将非常接近，竞争将会异常激烈，”里德说。“大家都明白这一点……我认为，即使科宁赢得了初选，这场选举也会很胶着。但会像现在这样激烈吗？可能不会。”

近几个月来，民主党人采取了更加积极的策略来重新赢得白人基督教选民的支持，他们利用物价上涨和社会正义的信息，开始论证共和党并不是唯一与基督教价值观相符的政党。

民主党人推出了一些候选人——例如德克萨斯州的塔拉里科、堪萨斯州的卫理公会巨型教会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿以及爱荷华州国会选区的牧师莎拉·特隆·加里奥特和林赛·詹姆斯——他们希望这些候选人能够开始缩小所谓的“上帝差距”，因为在这些州，基督教选民的选票可以在选举日发挥重要作用。

Arin Yoon/Bloomberg/Getty Images

民主党人认为，他们可以通过扩大讨论范围，摆脱对堕胎或LGBTQ权益等问题的纠葛，来争取基督教选民的支持。在这些问题上，他们一直处于劣势，尤其是在白人福音派选民中。因此，民主党人的信息重点更多地放在“爱人如己”上，并将其视为基督教的核心教义，以此来支持他们在限制移民执法和反对削减医疗保健方面的立场。

但保守的福音派领袖们还没有放弃他们历来赖以取胜的策略。

康奈利说：“我认为左派的言论比保守党更能动员民众。他们说‘我也是你们中的一员’可能有点用力过猛了。”

里德补充道：“我一点也不担心。”

在竞选过程中，共和党人攻击民主党牧师候选人，称他们“徒有牧师之名”。帕克斯顿经常提及塔拉里科过去关于信仰的言论，包括他曾说过“上帝是非二元的”以及耶稣是“激进女权主义者”，认为这些言论对许多保守派教徒来说过于极端。

今年早些时候，塔拉里科在福克斯电视台谈到了他关于“非二元性别”的言论，他说：“我当时那句话是想引起争议。我知道这一点。我想说的是，你不能用人类的范畴来定义上帝，这在神学上并不具有争议性。”

在堪萨斯州，共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔抨击了汉密尔顿作为大型教会牧师的工作，并在一则广告中指责他“利用信仰来充实自己的钱包”。

汉密尔顿竞选发言人泰森·布罗迪反驳了这些攻击，他在一份声明中说：“亚当很自豪地建立了一个拥有 24,000 名信徒的教会，其中共和党人和民主党人各占一半。”

“罗杰·马歇尔屡次就他所代表的州内最大的教会撒谎，直接抹黑过去选举中投票给他的教友，这种行为令人感到羞耻。”

但全国各地的福音派领袖和共和党反对者都在以不同的方式表达着同样的论点，即像塔拉里科和汉密尔顿这样的候选人正在曲解圣经的教义，以服务于他们自己的政治目的。

“我确实认为像詹姆斯·塔拉里科这样的人利用《圣经》作为工具来帮助他们当选。问题是他们所读的《圣经》与大多数人听说过或见过的《圣经》截然不同，”德克萨斯价值观组织主席乔纳森·萨恩斯说道。

帕克斯顿竞选发言人麦迪逊·瑟西在接受CNN采访时也表达了类似的观点。她说：“德克萨斯州的共和党人团结在总检察长周围，因为他们知道，摆在他们面前的选择是在一位捍卫他们价值观的斗士和一位嘲弄这些价值观的激进分子之间做出抉择。”

公共宗教研究所所长兼创始人罗伯特·P·琼斯对白人基督教选民进行了广泛的研究。虽然他认为福音派基督徒如果在选举日积极投票，很可能会投共和党的票，但他认为共和党还面临着另一个警示信号：白人主流新教选民。

琼斯告诉CNN：“我没看到福音派信徒有任何大规模倒戈的迹象。如果他们这么多年来一直支持特朗普，经历了所有的丑闻、失言、政策以及经济的起伏，我不明白有什么能让他们动摇对他的支持。”他补充道：“但如果你看看威斯康星州或密歇根州这样的地方，福音派信徒只占总人口的13%，主流基督教徒占18%，白人天主教徒占19%，那么你就会发现，有些群体可能会选择弃权，或者改变投票意向。”

琼斯表示，在过去三届总统选举中，大约十分之六的白人主流新教选民投票支持特朗普。但民主党人认为，争取这个群体要容易得多，部分原因是该群体的政治立场更加多元化。

琼斯说：“如果我是共和党策略师，看着选情地图，我会担心其他白人基督徒的选情。他们对总统的忠诚度不如其他白人基督徒。在我关注的几乎所有势均力敌的选区，即使共和党人能像往常一样获得福音派基督徒的支持，但如果他们失去白人主流派和白人天主教徒10个百分点的支持，都可能对所有这些选区的最终结果产生决定性影响。”