GOP senator said gas prices would decide the midterms. Now they’re threatening his reelection

Mariam Zuhaib/AP/File

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas boldly declared in July that “the midterms will be decided by the price of gasoline in October.”

That prediction now looks strikingly prescient — though not in the way Marshall may have hoped: October has arrived with gasoline prices sharply higher, and Republican candidates across the country facing surprisingly competitive races.

Since the war in Iran began in late February, the average price of gasoline in the US has risen by about 46%, driven largely by disruptions to global oil markets caused by the war that many Republicans, Marshall included, have consistently defended.

In Kansas, the change is even more stark, with gas and diesel prices up more than 57% and 77%, according to AAA data.

As Republicans have started to adjust their messaging around the war, millions of dollars in political spending are also being redirected in a sign that the GOP is attempting to shore up its defense in reliably Republican states.

Marshall is the top beneficiary of that shift, as Republican super PACs pour millions of dollars into Kansas. Much of that money had been intended for North Carolina, where GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley has long been trailing in polls.

Senate Leadership Fund, one of the main Republican groups supporting Senate candidates, has booked nearly $10 million worth of ads in Kansas, according to AdImpact.

That last-minute investment underscores how Marshall’s unequivocal support for the war — including his insistence that its economic costs were worth bearing — has become a real liability in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

Marshall finds himself in an unexpectedly close contest with Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a pastor and founder of the nation’s largest Methodist congregation.

In comments from the last several months reviewed by CNN’s KFile, Marshall consistently argued that the war was worth the economic toll. He said Americans would have to “make some sacrifices” and that national security was “even more important than your pocketbook,” later adding that keeping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was “worth the price.”

Marshall himself has repeatedly acknowledged gas prices as an electoral liability, calling them “absolutely the barometer for this election” in June .

Gasoline prices in Kansas are still lower than the national average, but they have risen faster overall since the war began, eroding some of the state’s advantage of having cheaper fuel. Today, Kansas gasoline averages about $4.01 a gallon and diesel about $6.01, according to AAA Fuel Prices. Gas is up from roughly $2.55 a gallon in the state from just before the war began, amounting to increases of about 57.5% for regular gasoline and about 77.6% for diesel.

Rising diesel prices are particularly consequential for Kansas farmers, who rely on that fuel to operate tractors and trucks during the fall harvest and winter wheat planting season. The increased costs come as farmers are already grappling with higher fertilizer expenses and tight operating margins.

While some Republicans in tough Senate races have backed away from support for the war, Marshall’s support remains steadfast.

The Marshall campaign did not reply to CNN’s request for comment.

When asked about rising gas prices in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins in March shortly after the war with Iran began, Marshall answered that “Freedom is not free. Americans are going to have to make some sacrifices.”

“We’re the largest producer of oil in the world, that we are the second biggest exporter of oil in the world,” Marshall said. “So, we’re not going to be shut out economically from this … but this is one of the prices of war.”

Evert Nelson/USA Today Network/Imagn

In an April interview with Newsmax , Marshall was asked about energy prices and how long America would be willing to pay high energy costs. Marshall compared it to sacrifices during World War II.

“We have to do it until we get the outcome that we want,” he said. “I hope it’s weeks and not months. But at the end of the day, Americans are gonna be safer.”

“So, I’m sorry the gas prices are going up, but help is on his way,” Marshall added. “And your national security, yes, is even more important than your pocketbook.”

A day later, Marshall took that argument directly to farmers in his home state, acknowledging the strain of higher fuel and fertilizer costs while warning that the economic consequences could be far worse if Iran obtained a nuclear weapon and controlled the Strait of Hormuz.

“If this theocracy in Iran continues, and they develop a nuclear weapon and they control the strait, diesel fuel is going to go up to $15 a gallon and your fertilizers go up another 50% as well,” Marshall said on RFD-TV , a channel dedicated to rural issues. “We hope this is short term. I appreciate the sacrifice the American farmer is making,” he continued.

By late May, Marshall was still predicting that the economic fallout would be temporary. In an interview with Fox Business, he urged Americans “to stand behind the president, stand behind the commander in chief, stand behind our troops,” adding, “I do think this war will be over sooner than later, and those gas prices will come back down.”

“We cannot allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” he said.

The following month, Marshall pointed to the Trump administration’s new memorandum of understanding with Iran as evidence that both the war and its economic consequences were easing.

“Americans are done with forever wars. Americans deserve affordable gas and groceries, and this agreement accomplishes just that,” Marshall said in a June CNN interview, adding that gas prices were falling as the Strait of Hormuz reopened.

“I believe the benefits outweigh the risks,” Marshall said on CNBC that same month.

The agreement quickly unraveled. By early July, negotiations had stalled, fighting had resumed and President Donald Trump declared the memorandum of understanding “over.”

In July, Marshall was openly acknowledging the political stakes of high fuel prices.

On a local radio station, he said “the midterms will be decided by the price of gasoline in October,” before arguing for swifter action: “So, I think if we’re going to do something, we got to rip the Band-Aid off and just go in there.”

And in August, Marshall told that same local radio station , “We want [the war] to be done tomorrow, but on the other hand, we can’t allow Iran to have nukes. So this may be the price.”

Last week, the Cook Political Report shifted the Kansas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”

And while Marshall spent much of the spring predicting the war’s economic consequences would be temporary, gasoline prices remain elevated just weeks before Election Day.

It leaves Marshall confronting the very political test he predicted in July, when he said that the midterms would be decided by the price of gasoline in October.

Mariam Zuhaib/美联社/档案照片

堪萨斯州共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔在7月份大胆宣称，“中期选举的结果将取决于10月份的汽油价格”。

现在看来，这个预测非常具有先见之明——尽管结果可能并非马歇尔所希望的那样：十月已至，汽油价格大幅上涨，全国各地的共和党候选人都面临着出人意料的激烈竞争。

自 2 月下旬伊朗战争爆发以来，美国汽油平均价格上涨了约 46%，这主要是由于这场战争扰乱了全球石油市场，而包括马歇尔在内的许多共和党人一直为这场战争辩护。

根据美国汽车协会 (AAA) 的数据，堪萨斯州的变化更为明显，汽油和柴油价格分别上涨了 57% 和 77% 以上。

随着共和党人开始调整其围绕战争的宣传策略，数百万美元的政治支出也被重新分配，这表明共和党正试图在传统上支持共和党的州加强其防御。

马歇尔是这一转变的最大受益者，因为共和党超级政治行动委员会向堪萨斯州投入了数百万美元。这些资金中的大部分原本计划用于北卡罗来纳州，共和党参议员候选人迈克尔·沃特利在该州的民调中长期落后。

据 AdImpact 报道，支持参议院候选人的主要共和党团体之一——参议院领导基金，已在堪萨斯州投放了价值近 1000 万美元的广告。

这笔最后一刻的投资凸显了马歇尔对战争的明确支持——包括他坚持认为战争的经济代价是值得承担的——在一个自 1932 年以来就没有选出过民主党参议员的州，已经成为了一个真正的负担。

马歇尔发现自己与民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿的竞争出乎意料地激烈，汉密尔顿是一位牧师，也是美国最大的卫理公会教堂的创始人。

据CNN的KFile栏目回顾，马歇尔在过去几个月的言论中始终坚持认为，这场战争值得付出经济代价。他表示，美国人必须“做出一些牺牲”，国家安全“甚至比你的钱包更重要”，后来又补充说，阻止伊朗获得核武器“值得付出这样的代价”。

马歇尔本人曾多次承认汽油价格是选举的不利因素，并在 6 月份称其为“本次选举的绝对晴雨表”。

堪萨斯州的汽油价格仍然低于全国平均水平，但自战争开始以来，其整体涨幅更快，削弱了该州燃油价格较低的优势。据美国汽车协会（AAA）燃油价格数据显示，目前堪萨斯州的汽油平均价格约为每加仑4.01美元，柴油约为每加仑6.01美元。与战前该州约2.55美元/加仑的价格相比，汽油价格上涨了约57.5%，柴油价格上涨了约77.6%。

柴油价格上涨对堪萨斯州的农民影响尤为严重，他们在秋收和冬小麦播种季节需要依靠柴油来操作拖拉机和卡车。雪上加霜的是，农民们本就面临着化肥价格上涨和利润空间收窄的双重压力。

尽管一些在激烈的参议院竞选中表现不佳的共和党人已经放弃了对战争的支持，但马歇尔的支持依然坚定不移。

马歇尔竞选团队没有回复 CNN 的置评请求。

在伊朗战争爆发后不久的3月份，马歇尔在接受CNN记者凯特兰·柯林斯采访时，被问及不断上涨的汽油价格，他回答说：“自由不是免费的。美国人将不得不做出一些牺牲。”

“我们是世界上最大的石油生产国，也是世界第二大石油出口国，”马歇尔说。“所以，我们不会被排除在经济之外……但这正是战争的代价之一。”

埃弗特·尼尔森/今日美国网络/Imagn

在四月份接受Newsmax采访时，马歇尔被问及能源价格以及美国愿意承受多久的高能源成本。马歇尔将其比作二战期间的牺牲。

他说：“我们必须坚持下去，直到取得我们想要的结果。我希望这只需要几周而不是几个月。但最终，美国人会更安全。”

“所以，我很遗憾汽油价格上涨，但援助正在路上，”马歇尔补充道。“而且，是的，国家安全比你的钱包更重要。”

一天后，马歇尔直接向他家乡州的农民们提出了这一论点，他承认燃料和化肥价格上涨带来的压力，同时警告说，如果伊朗获得核武器并控制霍尔木兹海峡，经济后果可能会更加严重。

“如果伊朗的神权统治继续下去，他们研发出核武器并控制了霍尔木兹海峡，柴油价格将上涨到每加仑15美元，化肥价格也将上涨50%。”马歇尔在专注于农村问题的RFD-TV电视台说道。“我们希望这只是暂时的。我理解美国农民所做出的牺牲。”他继续说道。

到了五月下旬，马歇尔仍然预测经济衰退只是暂时的。在接受福克斯商业频道采访时，他敦促美国民众“支持总统，支持三军统帅，支持我们的军队”，并补充说，“我确实认为这场战争很快就会结束，汽油价格也会回落。”

他说：“我们绝不能允许伊朗拥有核武器。”

次月，马歇尔指出，特朗普政府与伊朗签署的新谅解备忘录证明，战争及其经济后果都在缓解。

“美国人已经厌倦了无休止的战争。美国人应该享有价格合理的汽油和食品杂货，而这项协议正是为了实现这一点，”马歇尔在6月份接受CNN采访时表示，并补充说，随着霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，汽油价格正在下降。

“我认为收益大于风险，”马歇尔当月在CNBC节目中表示。

该协议很快瓦解。到7月初，谈判陷入僵局，战斗重燃，唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布谅解备忘录“失效”。

7 月，马歇尔公开承认高油价带来的政治风险。

他在当地一家电台表示，“中期选举将由10月份的汽油价格决定”，然后主张采取更迅速的行动：“所以，我认为如果我们要做点什么，就必须撕掉创可贴，直接行动。”

8月份，马歇尔在接受同一家当地电台采访时表示：“我们希望（战争）明天就结束，但另一方面，我们不能允许伊朗拥有核武器。所以这可能是我们必须付出的代价。”

上周，《库克政治报告》将堪萨斯州参议员竞选从“倾向共和党”调整为“势均力敌”。

尽管马歇尔在春季的大部分时间里都在预测战争的经济后果是暂时的，但距离选举日仅剩几周，汽油价格仍然居高不下。

这使得马歇尔不得不面对他在 7 月份预言的政治考验，当时他曾表示，中期选举的结果将取决于 10 月份的汽油价格。