The Iran war is costing American households $2,000 each, Moody’s estimates

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The deeply unpopular war in the Middle East continues to deliver economic shockwaves through Main Street America.

From $4 gas and 7% mortgage rates to surging airfares , the Iran war is significantly raising the cost of living for inflation-weary consumers ahead of the midterm elections.

The conflict has cost US consumers about $265 billion since it started in late February, according to estimates from Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. That equates to about $2,000 in higher costs for the average American household.

“Many Americans have rightly connected the dots between the Iran War and the painfully high cost of living and thus want the war to end,” Zandi told CNN on Tuesday.

Not only have consumer prices increased, but paychecks are not keeping up.

Wage growth slowed in September to a five-year low . Real wages, adjusted for inflation, have declined almost every month since the Iran war started, prompting some consumers to dip into savings and rely on credit cards to get by.

Energy is at the heart of the financial fallout.

The Iran war paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz for months, preventing staggering amounts of crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas from exiting the Persian Gulf.

Oil flows have rebounded through that narrow waterway but the cost to get crude out of the Persian Gulf has now also skyrocketed, raising the cost of everything from gasoline and diesel to jet fuel.

Soaring energy prices – including higher home heating bills – have cost the typical family about $1,100 since the war started.

At current prices, that tally is rising by about $50 per week, Zandi estimates.

Get ready for a 30% jump in heating oil costs this winter as Iran war drives up prices

Diesel, the workhorse fuel that powers trucks, tractors and trains, remains near all-time highs.

Gasoline prices have stabilized but they are still unusually high for this time of year, at $4.34 a gallon nationally, according to AAA. That’s up from $2.98 a gallon before the conflict started.

Pump prices have been persistently high since the war began. Tuesday marked the 165th day this year with the national average at or above $4 a gallon, according to a CNN review of AAA data.

That’s easily the most for any calendar year since AAA started tracking in 2000, surpassing the prior record of 158 in 2022 during the Biden administration, much of which was attributed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The only other year where gas prices topped $4 a gallon was in 2008, when they were at or above $4 a gallon for 48 days during the summer before Lehman Brothers imploded.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment. President Donald Trump has in the past argued that higher gas and diesel prices are a small price to pay for keeping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

Skyrocketing jet fuel prices have slammed the airline industry. Airlines have responded by cutting some cheaper and less profitable routes, jacking up baggage fees and raising airfare.

The cost of airfare was up by 23% year over year as of August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The price of heating oil, which is very similar to diesel, has also spiked. Homes using heating oil are expected to pay 21% more for the fuel than last winter, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Moody’s found that the second-biggest consumer hit from the Iran war is in the form of higher borrowing costs.

Higher inflation prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time in three years and contributed to a sell-off in the bond market that has sharply driven up bond yields.

Those higher bond yields have brought average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates to 7.4%, a nearly three-year high. The cost of carrying a credit card balance and getting a car loan have also increased.

Moody’s estimates that higher interest rates have cost the typical household about $360.

The military conflict itself has been costly, a price that is ultimately borne by taxpayers. The Pentagon told lawmakers in September that the Iran war has cost $45.1 billion , CNN has previously reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

That estimate, however, is not comprehensive as it does not include the cost to repair damaged US bases or buildings in the region.

The financial costs from the Iran war likely help explain why consumer confidence is in a tailspin and why the war is so unpopular.

Just 27% of Americans approve of Trump on the economy and 28% call economic conditions good, according to a September CNN poll .

Lori Van Buren/Albany Times Union/Getty Images

这场在中东地区极不受欢迎的战争持续给美国普通民众带来经济冲击。

从每加仑 4 美元的汽油和 7% 的抵押贷款利率到飙升的机票价格，伊朗战争正在中期选举前显著提高受通胀困扰的消费者的生活成本。

据穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪估计，自2月底冲突爆发以来，这场冲突已给美国消费者造成约2650亿美元的损失。这相当于美国家庭平均每月支出增加约2000美元。

“许多美国人正确地将伊朗战争与居高不下的生活成本联系起来，因此希望战争结束，”赞迪周二告诉 CNN。

不仅消费物价上涨，而且工资增长也跟不上物价上涨的步伐。

9月份工资增长放缓至五年来的最低水平。经通胀调整后的实际工资自伊朗战争爆发以来几乎每个月都在下降，这促使一些消费者动用储蓄并依靠信用卡来维持生计。

能源问题是此次金融危机的核心所在。

伊朗战争使霍尔木兹海峡瘫痪数月，导致大量原油、燃料和液化天然气无法从波斯湾运出。

石油流量已经通过这条狭窄的水道反弹，但从波斯湾运出原油的成本也随之飙升，推高了从汽油、柴油到航空燃油等所有商品的价格。

自战争开始以来，能源价格飙升（包括家庭取暖费上涨）已使普通家庭损失约 1100 美元。

Zandi 估计，按目前的价格计算，这个数字每周大约增加 50 美元。

由于伊朗战争推高油价，预计今年冬季取暖油价格将上涨30%。

柴油是卡车、拖拉机和火车的主要燃料，其价格仍接近历史最高水平。

汽油价格已经趋于稳定，但根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，全国平均油价为每加仑4.34美元，仍然高于往年同期水平。冲突爆发前，油价为每加仑2.98美元。

自战争开始以来，汽油价格一直居高不下。据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）对美国汽车协会（AAA）数据的分析，周二是今年全国平均汽油价格达到或超过每加仑4美元的第165天。

这轻松创下了自 AAA 于 2000 年开始追踪以来任何日历年的最高纪录，超过了拜登政府执政期间 2022 年创下的 158 起的纪录，其中很大一部分归因于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。

汽油价格超过每加仑 4 美元的年份只有 2008 年，当时在雷曼兄弟公司倒闭前的那个夏天，汽油价格连续 48 天达到或超过每加仑 4 美元。

白宫未回应置评请求。唐纳德·特朗普总统过去曾表示，为了阻止伊朗获得核武器，汽油和柴油价格上涨是值得的。

航空燃油价格飙升重创航空业。航空公司采取的应对措施包括削减一些成本较低、利润较低的航线、提高行李托运费和上调机票价格。

据美国劳工统计局数据显示，截至8月份，机票价格同比上涨了23%。

与柴油非常相似的取暖油价格也大幅上涨。据美国能源信息署预测，使用取暖油的家庭今年冬季的燃料费用预计将比去年同期上涨21%。

穆迪发现，伊朗战争对消费者造成的第二大打击是借贷成本上升。

通胀上升促使美联储三年来首次提高利率，并导致债券市场抛售，从而大幅推高了债券收益率。

债券收益率上升导致30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率升至7.4%，接近三年来的最高水平。信用卡欠款成本和汽车贷款成本也随之增加。

穆迪估计，利率上升使普通家庭损失了约 360 美元。

这场军事冲突本身代价高昂，最终由纳税人承担。据CNN此前援引知情人士报道，五角大楼在9月份告诉国会议员，伊朗战争已耗资451亿美元。

然而，该估算并不全面，因为它不包括修复该地区受损的美国基地或建筑物的费用。

伊朗战争带来的经济损失可能有助于解释为什么消费者信心一落千丈以及为什么这场战争如此不得人心。

根据 CNN 9 月份的民意调查，只有 27% 的美国人认可特朗普的经济政策，28% 的人认为经济状况良好。