MAS keeps Singdollar appreciation rate unchanged but warns of elevated inflation

Unlike most central banks, which target interest rates, MAS uses S$NEER, which is a trade-weighted basket of currencies of Singapore’s major trading partners.

Published Oct 14, 2026, 08:18 AM

Updated Oct 14, 2026, 09:27 AM

MAS kept Singapore dollar policy unchanged, but said the war-linked energy shock will keep inflation elevated until 2027.

The bank said the S$NEER band will keep strengthening to curb imported inflation, after two policy tightenings in 2026.

Core inflation rose to 2.1% in July to August, and MAS expects growth to stay steady as GDP grew 5.4% in the third quarter.

SINGAPORE – Singapore’s central bank maintained its monetary policy stance, but warned that persistent energy price pressures from the Iran war will keep inflation elevated well into 2027. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said on Oct 14 that it will keep the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar’s trade-weighted value unchanged , also called the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band.

Unlike most central banks, which target interest rates, MAS uses S$NEER, which is a trade-weighted basket of currencies of Singapore’s major trading partners. This is because, in a small and open economy such as Singapore’s – where gross exports and imports of goods and services are more than 300% of gross domestic product (GDP) and almost 40 cents of every dollar spent domestically is on imports – the exchange rate has a much stronger influence on inflation than interest rates.

MAS said: “The current appreciating policy band will allow the S$NEER to continue to strengthen and lean against the anticipated near-term rise in imported inflation, ensuring the gradual easing of inflationary pressures in 2027.”

Faced with sticky inflation amid an unresolved energy shock from the Iran war, MAS has already tightened its policy stance twice in 2026 – in April and July – allowing for a stronger S$NEER that helps dampen the impact of rising import costs.

Global crude oil benchmark Brent was trading at around US$106 per barrel on Oct 14, up more than 70% since the start of the year, as supplies from the Middle East remained constrained amid the Iran war and the conflict between top oil exporter Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

“Since September, energy commodity prices have risen anew and are projected to remain high in the near term,” said the central bank.

Global and regional food prices are also expected to pick up as costlier inputs and adverse weather patterns impact food production.

Firming imported cost pressures in Singapore will keep core and all-items inflation at the current slightly elevated levels in the months ahead, MAS said.

Core inflation, which excludes the costs of accommodation and private transport from all-items inflation, rose to 2.1% on the year in July to August, from 1.5% in the second quarter.

For 2026 as a whole, core inflation is forecast to average 1.5% to 2.0%, while all-items inflation should come in around 2%.

MAS said inflation should ease more discernibly in the second half of 2027 as global energy prices gradually moderate, but with inflation running high all the way to mid-2027, both core and all-items inflation are projected to average 1.5% to 2.5%.

For now, economic growth is not a worry for the central bank.

Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry’s advance estimates released on Oct 14 showed Singapore’s overall GDP grew by 5.4% year on year in the third quarter.

MAS said: “The Singapore economy is expected to continue expanding steadily in the quarters ahead.”

Ovais Subhani is senior business correspondent at The Straits Times. He writes stories that demystify the latest economics, trade and finance news.

Inflation/Price level

Monetary Authority of Singapore

与大多数以利率为目标的中央银行不同，新加坡金融管理局使用S$NEER，这是一个按贸易加权的、由新加坡主要贸易伙伴货币组成的货币篮子。

发布于 2026 年 10 月 14 日上午 8:18

更新于2026年10月14日上午9:27

新加坡金融管理局维持新加坡元政策不变，但表示与战争相关的能源冲击将使通胀居高不下，直至 2027 年。

该银行表示，在2026年两次收紧货币政策后，新加坡元名义有效汇率区间将继续收紧，以抑制输入型通胀。

7月至8月核心通胀率升至2.1%，新加坡金融管理局预计经济增长将保持稳定，因为第三季度国内生产总值增长了5.4%。

新加坡——新加坡央行维持其货币政策立场不变，但警告称，伊朗战争带来的持续能源价格压力将使通胀高企的局面持续到2027年。新加坡金融管理局（MAS）于10月14日表示，将维持新加坡元贸易加权价值的升值幅度不变，该升值幅度也被称为新加坡元名义有效汇率（S$NEER）政策区间。

与大多数以利率为目标的中央银行不同，新加坡金融管理局（MAS）使用新元名义有效汇率（S$NEER），这是一个由新加坡主要贸易伙伴货币组成的贸易加权货币篮子。这是因为，在新加坡这样一个小型开放经济体中——其商品和服务的进出口总额超过国内生产总值（GDP）的300%，且国内每消费1新元，就有近40新元用于进口——汇率对通货膨胀的影响远大于利率。

新加坡金融管理局表示：“目前的升值政策区间将使新元名义有效汇率继续走强，并抵消预期中的近期进口通胀上升，从而确保2027年通胀压力逐步缓解。”

面对伊朗战争带来的能源冲击尚未解决，导致通胀居高不下，新加坡金融管理局已在 2026 年 4 月和 7 月两次收紧政策立场，从而推高新加坡实际有效汇率，以缓解进口成本上升的影响。

10 月 14 日，全球原油基准布伦特原油价格约为每桶 106 美元，较年初上涨超过 70%，原因是伊朗战争以及全球最大石油出口国沙特阿拉伯与也门之间的冲突导致中东地区的石油供应仍然受限。

“自9月份以来，能源商品价格再次上涨，预计短期内将保持高位，”央行表示。

由于投入成本上升和不利天气模式影响粮食生产，预计全球和区域粮食价格也将上涨。

新加坡金融管理局表示，进口成本压力持续走强，将使新加坡核心通胀率和所有商品通胀率在未来几个月内维持在目前略微偏高的水平。

剔除了住宿和私人交通成本等所有项目通胀因素的核心通胀率，7 月至 8 月同比上升至 2.1%，高于第二季度的 1.5%。

预计 2026 年全年核心通胀率平均为 1.5% 至 2.0%，而所有项目通胀率应在 2% 左右。

新加坡金融管理局表示，随着全球能源价格逐步回落，通胀将在 2027 年下半年明显缓解，但由于通胀将持续高位至 2027 年年中，预计核心通胀率和所有项目通胀率的平均水平将达到 1.5% 至 2.5%。

目前来看，经济增长并非央行所担忧的问题。

新加坡能源、贸易和工业部10月14日公布的初步数据显示，新加坡第三季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%。

新加坡金融管理局表示：“预计新加坡经济将在未来几个季度继续稳步增长。”

奥瓦伊斯·苏巴尼是《海峡时报》的资深商业记者。他撰写的文章深入浅出地解读最新的经济、贸易和金融新闻。

通货膨胀/物价水平

新加坡金融管理局