Trump was trying to force prices lower ahead of the midterms. But Iran gets a vote, too

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President Donald Trump and Republicans just got the worst news on inflation ahead of the midterms: Prices rose more than expected in September .

The news came as no surprise to American voters. Polls show they’re furious about the high cost of living that has persisted since the pandemic but has been exacerbated this year by Trump’s policies – including tariffs and, primarily, the Iran war.

To alleviate some of the price pain, the Trump administration has been diving deep into its bag of tricks. Over a month ago, the US Navy began a high-stakes effort to assist tankers shuttling Gulf oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. And in a hail-Mary attempt, Trump last week announced a controversial deal to drop some sanctions on Russia to import a relatively small amount of the country’s diesel.

Iran and its Houthi allies are now undermining both of those operations. An increase in attacks on tankers and oil infrastructure over the past week has sent oil and diesel prices higher. The disruption has sent transits through the straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb falling sharply after mostly recovering to their pre-war levels.

The Trump administration was never going to solve the inflation problem in the month leading up to the midterms. But its last-ditch effort for some positive news on prices has run face-first into a brick wall this week.

Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index showed a familiar story: Inflation continued to rise in September, boosted mostly by surging energy costs.

Gas prices rose 9.1% over the course of the month and ended September more than 34% higher than the same time last year. Fuel oil prices rose 15.3% last month and surged more than 74% over the course of the past year.

Those higher costs are starting to spread to other parts of the economy. As my colleague Matt Egan noted Tuesday, the Iran war is costing the average American household $2,000 in additional costs , according to Moody’s Analytics.

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How much is inflation costing you? Find out with this calculator

Particularly concerning in Wednesday’s inflation report was the surprising rebound in housing and rent costs, a significant contributor to inflation that had cooled off in the spring and summer.

All services rose 0.4% in the month – prices that tend to rise as yoga studios, lawn services and the like charge their customers more to make up for their rising costs. Those services prices may only be a knock-on effect from the Iran war, but economists get worried when they rise, because they tend to be “sticky.”

Bluntly: When was the last time your kids’ nursery school lowered prices?

The overall US economy remains hot and consumers keep spending despite rising prices. But higher inflation has translated into higher bond yields and rates from the Federal Reserve, which are lifting borrowing costs and making housing even less affordable.

Iran knows all this. It knows the political pressure Trump and his Republican party are facing. And it knows what month it is.

After a relatively quiet September, at least 18 vessels in and around the Middle East have been attacked over the past two weeks, according to Kpler, a maritime tracking service. On Tuesday, the Iran-allied Houthis appeared to hit the headquarters of Saudi state oil giant Aramco.

“It appears Iran is attempting to keep oil prices high ahead of the midterm elections, and the best way to do this has been to increase attacks - both from themselves and via the Houthis,” said Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler.

The ever-shifting narrative about who controls the Strait of Hormuz has changed once again.

The complex operation of naval-protected dark fleets shuttling Gulf oil out of the strait and offloading it to tankers in the Gulf of Oman had been hugely successful. Just a few weeks ago, oil transits out of the Strait of Hormuz had almost fully recovered to their pre-war levels.

Over the past seven days, oil and fuel transits through the strait have fallen to 54% of their pre-war levels, according to Kpler.

Iran’s retaliation should surprise no one, said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners.

“As the US trumpets the success of getting more crude out to global markets, it feels somewhat like sporting a big ‘kick me’ sign,” he said. “Iran is attacking almost everyone. Meanwhile, Iran’s proxy, the Houthis, are attacking Saudi Arabia with substantial results.”

Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure have raised the stakes of the war. Although the oil market largely dodged a bullet after a successful but repairable attack on Saudi Arabia’s crucial East-West pipeline, the recent attacks prove that the conflict isn’t abating anytime soon.

The ultimate winner can’t yet be known: The US Navy may once again gain the upper hand. The administration may find other creative ways to get more diesel flowing to the market.

In the meantime, the loser is clear: The American consumer. And in three weeks they will be casting their verdict on the economy as they vote in the midterms.

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在即将到来的中期选举前，唐纳德·特朗普总统和共和党人刚刚收到了关于通胀的最糟糕的消息：9 月份物价上涨幅度超过预期。

这一消息对美国选民来说并不意外。民调显示，他们对疫情以来持续高企的生活成本感到愤怒，而今年特朗普的政策——包括关税，尤其是伊朗战争——更是加剧了这一问题。

为了缓解油价上涨带来的冲击，特朗普政府可谓使出了浑身解数。一个多月前，美国海军启动了一项高风险行动，协助油轮从霍尔木兹海峡运送海湾石油。上周，特朗普孤注一掷地宣布了一项颇具争议的协议，取消对俄罗斯的部分制裁，以换取少量俄罗斯柴油的进口。

伊朗及其胡塞武装盟友正在破坏这两项行动。过去一周，针对油轮和石油基础设施的袭击事件增加，导致石油和柴油价格上涨。此次袭击造成的混乱使得霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡的石油运输量在基本恢复到战前水平后急剧下降。

特朗普政府原本就没打算在中期选举前的一个月内解决通胀问题。但本周，它试图通过抛出一些提振物价的利好消息来做最后的努力，却遭遇了惨败。

周三公布的消费者价格指数显示了一个熟悉的景象：9月份通货膨胀率继续上升，主要原因是能源成本飙升。

汽油价格当月上涨9.1%，9月底的价格比去年同期高出34%以上。燃油价格上月上涨15.3%，过去一年累计上涨超过74%。

这些不断上涨的成本正开始蔓延到经济的其他领域。正如我的同事马特·伊根周二指出的那样，根据穆迪分析公司的报告，伊朗战争使美国家庭平均额外支出2000美元。

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通货膨胀让你损失了多少？用这个计算器算算看。

周三公布的通胀报告中，最令人担忧的是住房和租金成本的意外反弹，而住房和租金成本是推动通胀的重要因素，此前通胀在春夏季节有所降温。

当月所有服务价格上涨0.4%——瑜伽馆、草坪维护等服务行业为了弥补成本上涨，往往会提高收费，因此这类服务的价格上涨趋势较为明显。这些服务价格或许只是伊朗战争的连锁反应，但经济学家们对此感到担忧，因为价格上涨往往具有“粘性”。

直截了当地问：你孩子的幼儿园上次降价是什么时候？

美国整体经济依然火热，尽管物价上涨，消费者支出依然旺盛。但高通胀导致债券收益率和美联储利率走高，推高了借贷成本，使住房更加难以负担。

伊朗对这一切都了如指掌。它知道特朗普及其共和党面临的政治压力。它也知道现在是几月。

据海事追踪服务机构Kpler的数据显示，在经历了相对平静的9月之后，过去两周中东及其周边地区至少有18艘船只遭到袭击。周二，伊朗支持的胡塞武装似乎袭击了沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（沙特阿美）的总部。

Kpler分析师马特·史密斯表示：“伊朗似乎正试图在中期选举前保持高油价，而实现这一目标的最佳方法就是增加袭击——既有伊朗自身发动的，也有通过胡塞武装发动的。”

关于谁控制霍尔木兹海峡的说法一直在不断变化，如今又一次发生了改变。

由海军护航的秘密舰队负责将海湾石油从霍尔木兹海峡运送出去，并在阿曼湾卸载到油轮上的复杂行动取得了巨大成功。就在几周前，霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量几乎完全恢复到了战前水平。

据 Kpler 称，过去七天，通过海峡的石油和燃料运输量已降至战前水平的 54%。

Pickering Energy Partners 的创始人兼首席投资官 Dan Pickering 表示，伊朗的报复行动不应该让任何人感到惊讶。

“美国大肆宣扬向全球市场输送更多原油的成功，这感觉就像是在招揽生意，”他说。“伊朗几乎攻击了所有人。与此同时，伊朗的代理人胡塞武装正在攻击沙特阿拉伯，并取得了显著成效。”

胡塞武装近期对沙特基础设施的袭击加剧了战争的紧张局势。尽管沙特至关重要的东西输油管道遭到袭击，但石油市场并未受到太大冲击，不过此次袭击尚可修复。然而，近期的袭击表明，冲突短期内不会缓和。

最终的赢家尚难预料：美国海军或许会再次占据上风。政府也可能找到其他创造性的方法来增加柴油的供应量。

与此同时，输家显而易见：美国消费者。三周后，他们将在中期选举中投票，对经济形势做出最终评判。