Democrats’ big tent could be put to the test in 2027

If Democrats win the Senate next month, the chamber’s new swing voters will likely be an interesting cast.

They’ll be Democrats from states that voted for President Donald Trump by double digits, and who have distanced themselves from their party on transgender rights, oil drilling, immigration and even the left’s desire to scrutinize the Trump administration. And some of them are anxious to tout their willingness to work with the president.

Democratic leaders did a good job recruiting and helping nominate candidates with moderate brands whom voters seem to like . That’s helped them compete on a difficult map where the party needs to win at least two states Trump won by double digits to nab the majority.

But if Democrats nab that majority, the party will face a challenge in trying to balance the interests of some of these new moderate lawmakers with the demands of the base.

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One of the most common issues where these moderate candidates have tacked to the right has been transgender athletes. Opposition to allowing transgender students to play on girls’ sports teams — or some version of that position — has been embraced by state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa, state Rep. James Talarico in Texas, pastor Adam Hamilton in Kansas and physician Annie Andrews in South Carolina.

Both Talarico and Andrews had previously embraced a broader version of transgender rights and spoke out on behalf of that community.

But after Trump attacked Andrews using an anti-transgender slur , the South Carolina Democrat filmed a direct-to-camera ad in which she said, “I don’t support biological men playing women’s sports and I don’t support — and haven’t ever performed — gender surgery for minors.” She added in a debate on Sunday: “ I don’t support gender surgery on minors .”

Hamilton added the same day on ABC’s “This Week”: “I believe that there are two biological genders .”

Another significant break from the national party has been on immigration.

“Democrats have failed on the border,” Andrews said at the debate. Talarico has said that “Joe Biden and his administration failed us on our southern border .” Alaska Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola has run an ad touting her votes breaking with her party on the border, including being one of just six House Democrats to symbolically condemn then-Vice President Kamala Harris and the Biden administration’s border policies in 2024.

Turek has also repeatedly returned to that theme, including launching a new ad this week featuring a sheriff saying Turek “broke with his party and voted with Republicans to support law enforcement … and crack down on illegal immigration.” He indeed voted with just a few Democrats to make being in the country illegally a state crime in Iowa .

Other areas of separation are a bit more state specific.

One of Peltola’s big issues is increased oil and gas production. The Alaska Democrat also touts her “A” rating from the National Rifle Association.

Hamilton has also decried the “ war on domestic energy projects ” The Kansas Democrat even said he’d consider a temporary diesel export ban, which Trump floated and then later ruled out, to hopefully lower prices (despite experts being skeptical of the idea). And Hamilton also recently suggested he’s not overly keen on some Democrats’ desire to investigate Trump administration officials — saying he instead prefers to institute “guardrails.”

“I’m not going to Washington to hold trials,” he told MS NOW . “I’m going to Washington to fight for the people of Kansas and make life better for them.”

That could seemingly be a problem if that kind of accountability becomes a major focus for a potential Democratic majority. (That would likely be where much of Democrats’ energy is devoted since it’s not as if they will be able to pass a far-ranging agenda with Trump still in office.)

At the same time, however, we don’t necessarily know how these situations will pan out. Just because Hamilton says holding trials won’t be his focus, that doesn’t necessarily mean he would oppose his party’s move toward that or other accountability from Trump officials.

Many of these Democrats are breaking with their party in potentially symbolic ways: They’re staking out a rhetorical difference without necessarily indicating that they would vote against the party on major issues that are likely to come up over the next two years.

There is some evidence that Americans have warmed to the Democratic Party as these kinds of candidates have led the charge. A Gallup poll this week showed the party’s favorable rating rising to 43% — up from the mid-30s last year and 8 points higher than Republicans’ favorability. And the percentage of Americans who said the Democratic Party is “too liberal” has declined from 55% in 2022 to 46% today.

But if Democrats do win either or both chambers in Congress, that new power could embolden the party’s left flank to try and assert themselves, leading to potential clashes within the party.

To some degree, that’s the new reality for Democrats. There are simply more red states than blue states these days, and Trump won 24 of the 50 states by double digits. So if Democrats don’t run the table in swing states, they need to run moderate candidates who can win in pretty red territory.

But that won’t make dealing with that tension any easier.

Many in the party’s base have agonized over the sway that moderate former Democratic senators like Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona had as swing votes — and that Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman could have come next year.

And there could be more where that came from.

如果民主党下个月赢得参议院，那么参议院新的摇摆选民群体可能会很有意思。

他们将来自那些以两位数优势支持特朗普总统的州的民主党人，这些人已经在跨性别者权利、石油钻探、移民问题，甚至左翼人士希望审查特朗普政府的诉求上与本党保持距离。而他们中的一些人却急于标榜自己愿意与总统合作。

民主党领导人在招募和提名温和派候选人方面做得很好，这些候选人似乎很受选民欢迎。这有助于他们在竞争激烈的选情中脱颖而出，因为民主党至少需要赢得两个特朗普曾以两位数优势获胜的州才能获得多数席位。

但如果民主党人赢得多数席位，该党将面临一个挑战，即如何在一些新晋温和派议员的利益与基本盘的要求之间取得平衡。

通往2026年中期选举的道路现在就开始了。

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这些温和派候选人最常向右倾斜的议题之一就是跨性别运动员问题。反对允许跨性别学生参加女子运动队——或者类似立场——的人士，包括爱荷华州众议员乔什·图雷克、德克萨斯州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科、堪萨斯州牧师亚当·汉密尔顿以及南卡罗来纳州医生安妮·安德鲁斯，都持此观点。

Talarico 和 Andrews 此前都曾拥护更广泛的跨性别者权利，并代表该群体发声。

但特朗普用反跨性别歧视的言论攻击安德鲁斯后，这位南卡罗来纳州民主党人拍摄了一段对着镜头的竞选广告，她在广告中说：“我不支持生理男性参加女子运动，我也不支持——而且从未进行过——未成年人变性手术。”她在周日的辩论中补充道：“我不支持对未成年人进行变性手术。”

汉密尔顿当天在ABC电视台的“本周”节目中补充道：“我相信有两种生物性别。”

与全国性政党的另一个重大分歧在于移民问题。

安德鲁斯在辩论中表示：“民主党在边境问题上失败了。”塔拉里科也曾表示：“乔·拜登及其政府在南部边境问题上辜负了我们。”阿拉斯加州民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉投放了一则广告，宣传她在边境问题上与党派立场相悖的投票，其中包括她是仅有的六位在2024年象征性地谴责时任副总统卡马拉·哈里斯和拜登政府边境政策的众议院民主党人之一。

图雷克也多次重申这一主题，包括本周推出的一则新广告，广告中一位警长称图雷克“与他的党派决裂，与共和党人一起投票支持执法部门……并严厉打击非法移民”。事实上，他只与少数民主党人一起投票，将非法居留定为爱荷华州的一项州级犯罪。

其他方面的分离则因州而异。

佩尔托拉关注的重点议题之一是提高石油和天然气产量。这位阿拉斯加州民主党人还大力宣传她获得的美国步枪协会“A”级评级。

汉密尔顿还谴责了针对国内能源项目的“战争”。这位堪萨斯州民主党人甚至表示，他会考虑暂时禁止柴油出口——特朗普曾提出过这一方案，但后来又否决了——以期降低柴油价格（尽管专家对此持怀疑态度）。汉密尔顿最近还暗示，他不太热衷于一些民主党人想要调查特朗普政府官员的做法，称他更倾向于设立“保障措施”。

“我去华盛顿不是为了审判，”他告诉MS NOW，“我去华盛顿是为了给堪萨斯州人民争取权益，让他们的生活变得更好。”

如果这种问责制成为潜在的民主党多数派的主要关注点，那似乎就会成为一个问题。（鉴于特朗普仍在任，民主党不太可能通过一项范围广泛的议程，因此他们很可能会把大部分精力投入到这方面。）

然而，与此同时，我们也未必能预知这些情况最终会如何发展。汉密尔顿虽然表示审判并非他的工作重点，但这并不意味着他会反对其所在政党采取的审判或其他追究特朗普政府官员责任的行动。

许多民主党人正在以可能具有象征意义的方式与本党决裂：他们在言辞上表明了立场上的差异，但并不一定表明他们会在未来两年可能出现的重大问题上投票反对本党。

有证据表明，随着这类候选人的出现，美国民众对民主党的态度有所转变。盖洛普本周公布的一项民调显示，民主党的支持率升至43%，高于去年的30%左右，比共和党的支持率高出8个百分点。此外，认为民主党“过于自由派”的美国民众比例也从2022年的55%下降至目前的46%。

但如果民主党赢得国会参众两院中的任何一院或两院，这种新权力可能会鼓励该党左翼势力试图巩固自身地位，从而导致党内潜在的冲突。

在某种程度上，这就是民主党面临的新现实。如今，共和党占优势的州比民主党占优势的州要多得多，而特朗普在50个州中的24个州以两位数的优势获胜。因此，如果民主党无法在摇摆州取得全胜，他们就需要推出能够在共和党占优势的地区赢得胜利的温和派候选人。

但这并不会让处理这种紧张局势变得更容易。

党内许多基层人士一直对西弗吉尼亚州的乔·曼钦和亚利桑那州的克里斯滕·西内玛等温和派前民主党参议员作为摇摆票的影响力感到担忧——而宾夕法尼亚州参议员约翰·费特曼明年也可能加入。

而且可能还有更多类似的案例。