Gift for Putin as fears grow that Trump is turning the screws on Ukraine

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Ultimately, you have to wonder what it is that Vladimir Putin says to Donald Trump when they are on the phone.

A week ago, a call between the US president and his Russian counterpart seemed to be about an urgent clarification over a possible outbreak of plague in Siberia . Instead, a controversial deal to buy Russian diesel emerged, prompting fury from Ukrainians, and then Trump demanding they get a new president. For days, fears grew across Europe this may spill into the real world of the US limiting military aid and intelligence for Ukraine, and in the past 48 hours, that might be spilling into reality.

Twice now, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has declared Kyiv was not given the usual warning about Russian ballistic missile attacks from its partners.

The US, whose satellites and other methods are the early warning mechanisms for Russian launches, normally provide Ukrainians a vital few minutes to run to the shelter before the missiles hit. Thirty-nine slammed into Ukraine last night. President Trump has openly rejected the idea he has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, saying Tuesday: “We are helping them, and we are sharing intel.” But that does not preclude the possibility less intelligence is being shared, or it is less in real time.

With the dead from Russian strikes often in the dozens, as Moscow seeks to yet further widen the envelope of what civilian carnage it will impose, a sudden withdrawal of these early warnings would mean many Ukrainians will likely die. It is possible there is another reason for Zelensky’s messaging – that he is pre-emptively posturing, or that poor weather or technical issues prompted the lack of warnings.

The second withdrawal of assistance that appeared to beset Ukraine Wednesday also suggests Trump is squeezing them harder.

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Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

Starlink space-based internet antennae – assisting Ukrainian medium and longer-range drones to hit their targets, and interceptors to tackle Russian loitering drones – have had significant speed limits imposed on them. This may amount to the removal of a bonus capability negotiated by the former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov with Space X’s owner, Elon Musk. It is important to note it is not comparable to Musk’s decision to entirely stop Starlink functioning inside Russia, which significantly hampered Moscow’s frontline operations in the summer of last year. But it is a palpable snub with operational significance, and one that Ukrainian officials have said would only have occurred at the behest of the White House.

For days, European and Ukrainian officials have warned the US was threatening to limit intelligence and other cooperation if Kyiv did not stop hitting Russian diesel facilities. Trump has – somewhat misleadingly – stated Ukrainian targeting of Moscow’s oil facilities is behind a surge in pump prices in the United States, choosing to ignore the role the Strait of Hormuz has played in this global economic calamity. It is possible the Starlink slowdown and lack of ballistic warnings shows this threat coming to life.

President Trump has denied this is the case, but that is not in of itself definitive proof it is not happening. Trump has also – since he spoke to Putin – again swung from deciding to finally allow Ukraine to build its own Patriot interceptors, a high-profile and vital move long-prevaricated over, to deciding the true obstacle to peace is Zelensky, the president of the invaded country, who has been asking for an immediate ceasefire for over a year.

It does not appear to influence Trump’s thought process when Putin attacks Ukrainian energy facilities in the middle of Trump’s self-declared “energy ceasefire.” Or when Putin’s operatives plot to murder a dissident in Washington DC. Or when US businesses are relentlessly hit in Ukraine. There are moments when Trump simply appears bent on hurting Ukraine and damaging its position. We may never learn why, or what it is that Putin says to him to cause this relatively frequent flip in Trump’s worldview.

Conjecture might revive the old trope that Trump the real-estate dealmaker seeks to pressure his subcontractors (here, Ukraine) to get the deal to go through or forge a price more palatable to his end consumer (Putin), who he has correctly assessed is in the driving seat of the war and therefore any peace deal. But the timing of this pressure rarely comes when a deal is close, or appears supported by logic. Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian diesel, by most analysis, won’t impact prices at the American pump before the mid-terms, but will likely flood the Kremlin’s coffers with badly needed cash.

Zelensky and his European allies have seen this vacillation enough times to be inured to its emotional impact, and perhaps even relaxed about how long it might sustain. Perhaps more Trump-whispering by France’s Macron, or another call from NATO’s Rutte, or visit from Italy’s Meloni, will see the US president flip back again. Indeed, Zelensky was in London Wednesday, and the topic has surely come up.

But Trump’s persistent sympathy for Russia’s position remains a mystery of our time. Critics say it is unlikely to achieve his apparent goal of a peace deal, incompatible with the long-term security interests of the United States, and oblivious to Moscow’s role in assisting Iran , which continues to embarrass Trump and injure American servicemen.

There is an inherent risk in the current state of affairs, however, to both Trump and Putin.

First, Trump might create such acrimony in his transatlantic relationships, that his allies simply zone him out for the 18 months after the mid-terms, and wait for him to depart. That could leave Trump further hamstrung when dealing with an intractable conflict, spreading in the Middle East.

There is risk for Putin too.

Europe and Ukraine being forced to forge ahead without the United States, fashion resilience, find new methods, and surge funding into their defense, does not leave the Kremlin in a dominant position. The more Moscow antagonizes Europe, the more it arms up, and the greater, in the long-term, the (defensive) threat Europe’s armies pose to Russia.

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Ukraine has shown extraordinary inventiveness and capability. That is unlikely to stop, and likely to again reshape the landscape of warfare in the coming years. Similarly, Russia’s capacity to absorb pain is immense. Yet its breaking point is rarely publicly visible, and tends to surge menacingly from the deep without warning, as when the frustrated chief of Russia’s infamous Wagner mercenary force launched a short-lived rebellion in 2023

In the immediate term however, the risk of this current strategy is born entirely by Ukraine. Its children and mothers are dying from nightly strikes. Its cities are sleepless. And its military aid is prey to two powerful men’s curious bromance.

米哈伊尔·梅策尔/法新社/Pool/盖蒂图片社

最终，人们不禁会好奇，弗拉基米尔·普京在和唐纳德·特朗普通电话时究竟说了些什么。

一周前，美国总统与俄罗斯总统的通话似乎是关于西伯利亚可能爆发瘟疫的紧急澄清。然而，通话内容却出人意料地达成了一项颇具争议的俄罗斯柴油采购协议，这激怒了乌克兰民众，随后特朗普要求乌克兰更换总统。连日来，欧洲各地担忧此事可能会演变为美国限制对乌克兰的军事援助和情报支持。而过去48小时内，这种担忧似乎正在变成现实。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基已经两次宣称，基辅没有收到其盟友通常发出的关于俄罗斯弹道导弹袭击的警告。

美国利用其卫星和其他手段作为俄罗斯导弹发射的预警机制，通常能为乌克兰民众争取宝贵的几分钟时间躲进掩体，避免导弹落入。昨晚，39枚导弹袭击了乌克兰。特朗普总统公开否认他已停止与乌克兰分享情报，并于周二表示：“我们正在帮助他们，我们正在分享情报。”但这并不排除情报分享减少或实时性降低的可能性。

鉴于俄罗斯空袭造成的死亡人数往往达数十人，而莫斯科又试图进一步扩大其造成的平民伤亡范围，突然取消这些早期预警意味着许多乌克兰人可能会丧命。泽连斯基此举或许另有隐情——他可能是在先发制人，或者是因为恶劣天气或技术问题才导致预警缺失。

周三乌克兰似乎遭遇的第二波援助撤回也表明，特朗普正在加大对乌克兰的压力。

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瓦伦丁·奥吉连科/路透社

星链（Starlink）天基互联网天线——用于协助乌克兰中远程无人机打击目标，以及拦截俄罗斯巡飞无人机——已被大幅限制飞行速度。这可能意味着乌克兰前国防部长米哈伊洛·费多罗夫与SpaceX公司老板埃隆·马斯克谈判达成的一项额外功能被取消。值得注意的是，这与马斯克去年夏天完全停止星链在俄罗斯境内运行的决定不可同日而语，后者严重阻碍了莫斯科的前线作战行动。但这无疑是对乌克兰的公然怠慢，具有重要的作战意义，乌克兰官员表示，这种做法只会是白宫授意的。

连日来，欧洲和乌克兰官员警告称，如果基辅不停止袭击俄罗斯柴油设施，美国将威胁限制情报和其他方面的合作。特朗普曾发表过一些误导性言论，声称乌克兰袭击莫斯科石油设施是​​美国油价飙升的罪魁祸首，却选择忽略霍尔木兹海峡在这场全球经济灾难中所扮演的角色。星链卫星的减速以及缺乏弹道导弹预警，或许表明这一威胁正在变成现实。

特朗普总统否认了这一说法，但这本身并不能完全证明此事没有发生。此外，自从与普京通话以来，特朗普的态度再次摇摆不定：他先是决定最终允许乌克兰建造自己的“爱国者”导弹拦截系统——这是一项备受瞩目且至关重要的举措，此前他一直犹豫不决；随后，他又认定和平的真正障碍是泽连斯基，这位被入侵国家的总统一年多来一直在呼吁立即停火。

当普京在特朗普自封的“能源停火”期间袭击乌克兰能源设施时，特朗普的思维似乎并未受到影响。当普京的特工密谋在华盛顿特区谋杀一名异见人士时，他的想法也未受影响。当美国企业在乌克兰遭受持续打击时，他的想法同样未受影响。有时，特朗普似乎一心只想伤害乌克兰，损害其地位。我们或许永远无法得知个中缘由，也无法得知普京究竟对他说了什么，才导致特朗普的世界观如此频繁地发生转变。

人们可能会再次提出老生常谈的说法：特朗普这位房地产交易高手会向他的分包商（这里指的是乌克兰）施压，以促成交易或达成一个更符合其最终客户（普京）意愿的价格。他正确地判断出普京才是战争的幕后主使，因此也是任何和平协议的最终决策者。但这种施压的时机很少会在交易即将达成或看似合乎逻辑的时候出现。大多数分析认为，特朗普解除对俄罗斯柴油制裁的决定在中期选举前不会影响美国汽油价格，但很可能会让克里姆林宫的国库充盈大量急需的资金。

泽连斯基和他的欧洲盟友已经多次目睹这种摇摆不定，对由此带来的情绪波动习以为常，甚至可能对这种局面会持续多久都感到放松。或许，法国总统马克龙再次向特朗普示好，或者北约首相吕特再次致电，又或者意大利总理梅洛尼访问英国，就能让美国总统再次改变立场。事实上，泽连斯基周三就在伦敦，想必他们也谈到了这个话题。

但特朗普对俄罗斯立场的持续同情，至今仍是一个谜。批评人士指出，这不太可能实现他表面上的和平协议目标，因为这与美国的长期安全利益相悖，而且他对莫斯科在援助伊朗方面所扮演的角色视而不见——伊朗的行动持续令特朗普难堪，并给美国军人带来伤害。

然而，目前这种局面对特朗普和普京来说都存在着固有的风险。

首先，特朗普可能会在跨大西洋关系中制造如此严重的裂痕，以至于他的盟友在中期选举后的18个月里干脆对他置之不理，等着他下台。这可能会让特朗普在处理中东地区不断蔓延的棘手冲突时更加束手束脚。

普京也面临风险。

欧洲和乌克兰被迫在没有美国支持的情况下继续前进，增强自身韧性，寻找新的应对方法，并加大国防投入，这并不会让克里姆林宫占据主导地位。莫斯科越是与欧洲对抗，就越会加强自身武装，从长远来看，欧洲军队对俄罗斯构成的（防御性）威胁就越大。

Tetiana Dzhafarova/法新社/盖蒂图片社

乌克兰展现出了非凡的创造力和能力。这种情况不太可能停止，而且很可能在未来几年再次重塑战争格局。同样，俄罗斯承受痛苦的能力也十分强大。然而，它的崩溃点很少公开显现，而且往往会毫无预兆地从深处猛然爆发，就像2023年俄罗斯臭名昭著的瓦格纳雇佣军首领因不满而发动的那场短暂叛乱一样。

然而，就短期而言，当前战略的风险完全由乌克兰承担。乌克兰的儿童和母亲在夜间的袭击中丧生。乌克兰的城市夜不能寐。而乌克兰的军事援助却沦为两位权势人物之间奇特“兄弟情”的牺牲品。