High mortgage rates are deepening a ‘K-shaped’ housing market

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In today’s housing market, there is a growing divide between the “haves” and the “have-nots.”

The typical homebuyer faces mounting affordability challenges as home prices rise and inventory remains limited. Adding to the pressure: The recent surge in mortgage rates is making the decision to buy a home even more difficult for many, deepening affordability challenges

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.4% this week, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac. That’s a significant jump from this time last year, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.27%.

With the US midterm elections just weeks away, rising mortgage rates are adding fresh pressure to an already strained housing market at a time when affordability issues are a key concern for many voters.

Higher-income buyers, buoyed by more cash on hand and larger budgets, are accounting for a growing share of the housing market, while lower-income buyers struggle to keep up. It’s a divide that reflects the broader “K-shaped” economy: as the cost of living rises , wealthier Americans are better positioned to absorb the hit, while those with tighter budgets have less room to spare.

The same split is playing out in the housing market: Americans who are less sensitive to higher interest rates increasingly have the upper hand.

“It’s very expensive to get into a house if you’re looking for one right now,” said Oscar Munoz, head of US economics at TD Securities. “The only people that we find are driving transactions in the housing market are high-income consumers.”

“They have the wealth to transact in this market, which is unaffordable for most Americans,” Munoz added.

Data from TD Securities, commissioned by Morning Consult, shows a growing divergence in homebuying intentions this year. After tracking broadly with other income groups for several years, Americans earning $100,000 or more are now increasingly likely to say they want to buy a home, compared to lower-income consumers.

The recent rise in mortgage rates above 7% may widen the gap, Munoz said, as higher monthly payments make it harder for lower-income Americans to qualify for a mortgage or afford the payments if they do.

Higher-end buyers are likely also benefiting from a strong stock market, which hit record highs as recently as last week , giving them more purchasing power.

“There are different markets by geography, different markets by price point. What we’re seeing is the low end is dragging down the overall market,” Compass CEO Robert Reffkin said of a slowdown in home sales in an appearance on CNBC last month.

In Los Angeles, Brock and Lori Harris, a husband-and-wife real estate team, said buyers whose budgets are stretched by the prospect of higher mortgage payments have begun stepping back from the market.

“I always find it funny that cars are marketed as a monthly payment, but homes are not. Homes just show the price and then you have to pull out your mortgage calculator to figure out what your payment is,” said Brock Harris. “And suddenly, that payment is much, much higher than it used to be.”

National data points to a pullback from home shoppers who need to borrow money to afford a home. Mortgage applications last week were 16% lower than the same week one year ago, according to data the Mortgage Bankers Association released Wednesday.

Brock and Lori Harris said they’re seeing more cash buyers in the market in LA, but even those buyers are keeping a tighter grip on their wallets than they did just a few years ago.

Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images

“They’re aware, but they’re less sensitive to interest rates,” Lori Harris said of cash buyers. “Whereas a buyer who is taking out a loan might be priced out of a house they qualified to buy just two or three months ago because of these high rates.”

Nationally, cash sales accounted for 27% of transactions in September, according to the National Association of Realtors’ latest data released Tuesday. That is down from 30% a year ago, but mortgage rates didn’t breach 7% until the final week of September, crossing a threshold that some experts say could make buyers who rely on mortgage loans hit pause.

Mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, which have been volatile in recent months as investors anticipate further Federal Reserve rate hikes to rein in inflation. Those expectations have pushed bond yields higher, putting upward pressure on mortgage rates.

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In the weeks after mortgage rates crossed 7% late last month, eXp Realty, one of the country’s largest real estate brokerages, saw a higher-than-usual deal cancellation rate, said Leo Pareja, the CEO of AGNT, the parent company of eXp Realty.

“What that tells us is that it is shocking psychologically. It’s a real barrier,” Pareja told CNN, though he added that the deal cancellation rate has since returned to normal levels for this time of year.

For home shoppers still hunting for affordability in this higher interest rate environment, Pareja advised looking at new construction.

New homes have traditionally commanded a price premium over existing homes, but that relationship has flipped over the past two years. Existing home prices rose 1.3% year over year in September to $417,500, marking 39 consecutive months of annual gains, according to NAR. Meanwhile, the median price of a new home was $393,700 in August, according to the latest Census Bureau data.

“Unlike a homeowner who tests the market and doesn’t get their price, they can just pull it off the market if they have a lower interest rate… but a builder is in the business of selling,” Pareja said.

As a result, builders are leaning more heavily on incentives to attract new buyers, including mortgage rate buydowns that can help lower monthly payments, Pareja said.

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

在当今的房地产市场中，“富人”和“穷人”之间的差距越来越大。

随着房价上涨而房源仍然有限，普通购房者面临着日益严峻的负担能力挑战。雪上加霜的是，近期抵押贷款利率的飙升使许多人的购房决策更加艰难，加剧了负担能力方面的困境。

根据房地美周四公布的数据，本周30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率为7.4%。这比去年同期6.27%的平均利率大幅上涨。

距离美国中期选举仅剩几周时间，不断上涨的抵押贷款利率给本已紧张的住房市场带来了新的压力，而住房负担能力问题正是许多选民关注的重点。

高收入购房者手头现金充裕、预算充足，在住房市场中所占份额越来越大，而低收入购房者则难以跟上步伐。这种分化反映了更广泛的“K型”经济格局：随着生活成本的上升，富裕的美国人更有能力承受冲击，而预算紧张的人则捉襟见肘。

同样的局面也出现在房地产市场：对利率上升不太敏感的美国人越来越占据优势。

“如果你现在想买房，购房成本非常高，”道明证券美国经济主管奥斯卡·穆尼奥斯表示。“我们发现，推动房地产市场交易的唯一群体是高收入消费者。”

“他们有财富在这个市场上进行交易，而这对于大多数美国人来说是负担不起的，”穆尼奥斯补充道。

TD Securities受Morning Consult委托进行的数据显示，今年购房意愿的分化日益加剧。此前几年，年收入10万美元及以上的美国人购房意愿与其他收入群体基本一致，但如今，与低收入消费者相比，他们购房的意愿越来越强烈。

穆尼奥斯表示，近期抵押贷款利率超过 7% 可能会扩大贫富差距，因为更高的月供使得低收入美国人更难获得抵押贷款资格，或者即使获得了贷款也更难负担得起月供。

高端买家可能也受益于强劲的股市，股市上周创下历史新高，这让他们拥有了更大的购买力。

“不同地区的市场情况不同，不同价位的市场情况也不同。我们看到的是，低端市场正在拖累整体市场，” Compass 首席执行官 Robert Reffkin 上个月在 CNBC 节目中谈到房屋销售放缓时表示。

在洛杉矶，房地产经纪人布洛克和洛里·哈里斯夫妇表示，由于抵押贷款支付额增加，预算捉襟见肘的购房者已经开始退出市场。

“我一直觉得很奇怪，汽车的销售是以月供来衡量的，而房子却不是。房子只标明价格，然后你还得拿出抵押贷款计算器来算出你的月供是多少，”布罗克·哈里斯说。“结果发现，月供比以前高得多。”

全国数据显示，需要贷款购房的购房者数量有所减少。抵押贷款银行家协会周三公布的数据显示，上周的抵押贷款申请量比去年同期下降了16%。

布洛克和洛里·哈里斯表示，他们在洛杉矶市场上看到越来越多的现金买家，但即使是这些买家，也比几年前更加谨慎地捂紧钱包。

艾伦·J·沙本/洛杉矶时报/盖蒂图片社

“他们虽然了解利率，但对利率的敏感度较低，”洛里·哈里斯在谈到现金购房者时说道。“而贷款购房者可能因为高利率而买不起两三个月前还有资格购买的房子。”

根据美国房地产经纪人协会周二发布的最新数据，9月份全美现金交易占比为27%。这一比例低于去年同期的30%，但抵押贷款利率直到9月最后一周才突破7%，一些专家认为，这一门槛可能会让依赖抵押贷款的购房者暂停购房计划。

抵押贷款利率往往与债券收益率密切相关，而近几个月来，由于投资者预期美联储将进一步加息以抑制通胀，债券收益率波动较大。这些预期推高了债券收益率，进而对抵押贷款利率构成上行压力。

了解债券：美国国债快速指南

上个月底抵押贷款利率突破 7% 后的几周内，该国最大的房地产经纪公司之一 eXp Realty 的交易取消率高于往常，eXp Realty 的母公司 AGNT 的首席执行官 Leo Pareja 表示。

帕雷哈告诉 CNN：“这说明它在心理上造成了巨大的冲击，是一个真正的障碍。”不过他也补充说，交易取消率此后已恢复到往年同期正常水平。

对于在当前高利率环境下仍在寻找经济适用房的购房者，帕雷哈建议考虑新建房屋。

传统上，新房的价格高于二手房，但这种关系在过去两年发生了逆转。据美国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）的数据显示，9月份二手房价格同比上涨1.3%，达到417,500美元，连续39个月实现年度增长。与此同时，根据美国人口普查局的最新数据，8月份新房价格中位数为393,700美元。

帕雷哈说：“与试探市场但未能卖出理想价格的房主不同，如果利率降低，他们可以随时将房屋撤出市场……但建筑商的生意就是卖房。”

帕雷哈表示，因此，建筑商们更加依赖激励措施来吸引新买家，包括降低抵押贷款利率，这有助于降低每月还款额。