Trump’s worst political instincts are on full display

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It’s clear that many Republicans running for office in the 2026 midterm elections would prefer to keep President Donald Trump at arm’s length.

And Trump keeps reinforcing exactly why.

Not only is he a historically unpopular president heading into the midterms, but he and his team keep doubling down on the terrible political instincts that landed them in this mess.

Trump making puzzling political moves isn’t exactly new. But he’s reserved some of his most overwhelmingly unpopular ideas for late in the 2026 campaign.

It’s almost as if he’s trying to do the most unpopular things possible. And then he keeps citing them at his rallies, sometimes at length.

Two of the most telling examples are a pair of gambits that the administration now appears to have backed off of: using millions of dollars in taxpayer funds to run ads promoting Trump and live streaming the execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan. Trump has since indicated that he would use campaign money to pay for the ads and said Thursday that the live stream will no longer happen .

The latter announcement came just hours after a new Washington Post-ABC News poll Thursday showed registered voters opposed live streaming Hasan’s execution by a stunning margin, 80%-19% .

A Reuters-Ipsos poll last week, meanwhile, showed they said the taxpayer-funded political ads were inappropriate by an 89%-9% margin .

Even in the pantheon of Trump’s many unpopular policies, there are few comparisons to those numbers. About the best analog appears to be pardoning violent January 6 defendants, which another Washington Post poll showed registered voters opposed, 83%-16% .

That anyone thought either of these now-abandoned plans were solid ideas — let alone in October of an election year — says a lot about how the GOP got to where it is right now. Not only is live-streaming Hasan’s death a gruesome idea that even many Republicans cautioned against , it would be a propaganda win for Islamic extremists by turning Hasan into a very public martyr.

But apparently nobody was willing to air doubts to Trump or Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — or those doubts were too readily dismissed.

Lest you think these are isolated instances, take a look at what Trump was talking about at his rallies on Wednesday.

In Arizona, Trump played up his recently launched Canada trade war and his past proposals to make either Canada or Greenland the 51st US state.

“They are brutal, and we don’t take that crap anymore,” Trump said of Canadian trade policies towards the United States.

“They’ll end up being the 51st state, because it’s the only way it works,” Trump said, later adding: “Just like Greenland.” Then he riffed on Greenland, asserting he never actually intended to invade the territory — despite publicly reserving that option .

It was like a triple-decker sandwich of hugely unpopular initiatives.

Trump’s handling of Greenland? 72% disapproved of that in a February poll.

Making Canada the 51st state? Either 75% or 80% opposed that last year, depending on which poll you prefer.

Trump’s recent tariffs on Canada? Americans opposed that by a nearly 3-to-1 margin, 57%-20% , when Trump launched them.

Even alluding to tariffs right now is political malpractice. Polling from Fox News , AP-NORC and CNN in recent weeks all show about 7 in 10 Americans or registered voters disapproved of Trump on that issue. Each showed his worst numbers to date on the subject.

One could argue it’s better to explain the logic of the tariffs, but there’s a critical difference here from topics like the Iran war: The tariffs are a completely elective idea to pursue and promote with less than three weeks left in the campaign.

In both Arizona and Montana on Wednesday, Trump continued to argue that the economy is doing great. He said “tariffs don’t cause inflation” and claimed the US was getting richer because of both the tariffs and high oil prices.

“Our country is making more money than it’s ever made because of the fact that oil is so high,” Trump said in Bullhead City, Arizona. He added, “I care more about the little person than I care about the big person” but that, in oil-producing states, “we’re making a fortune.”

Trump has been barking up this tree for more than a year — basically telling people there is no inflation and that the economy is in a “golden age.”

And he keeps doing so even though the argument clearly doesn’t convince voters. One could even argue that it’s backfired.

A Pew Research Center poll last month showed 42% of Americans rated the economy “poor,” and 8 in 10 rated it either “fair” or “poor.” Both are new highs for Trump’s second term.

If anything, this happy talk appears to have only made Americans view Trump as out of touch and neglecting their affordability concerns. After all, just this week he’s gotten two straight days of bad inflation indicators, including data released Thursday that shows US wholesale inflation in September jumped to its highest level in more than four years.

It’s all rather stunning. Pundits often look for the secret political calculation in the things Trump does. But increasingly in his second term, there doesn’t seem to be a real political strategy guiding his actions. It’s seemingly all impulse and hubris, largely unchecked by electoral and political concerns.

And he only reverses course after polling comes out confirming that 8 in 10 people think a terrible idea is, in fact, a terrible idea.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

很显然，许多参加 2026 年中期选举的共和党候选人都希望与唐纳德·特朗普总统保持距离。

而特朗普则不断地强调其中的原因。

他不仅是历史上最不受欢迎的总统之一，即将迎来中期选举，而且他和他的团队还在不断强化导致他们陷入这种困境的糟糕政治本能。

特朗普做出令人费解的政治举动并非新鲜事。但他把一些最不得人心的想法留到了2026年竞选的后期。

他似乎故意要做一些最不受欢迎的事情。然后，他还在竞选集会上不断提及这些事情，有时甚至长篇大论。

其中两个最能说明问题的例子是特朗普政府现在似乎已经放弃的两项策略：动用数百万美元的纳税人资金投放广告宣传特朗普，以及直播胡德堡枪击案凶手尼达尔·哈桑的死刑执行过程。特朗普后来表示，他将使用竞选资金支付广告费用，并在周四宣布将不再进行直播。

就在几个小时前，《华盛顿邮报》和美国广播公司新闻周四联合发布的一项民意调查显示，登记选民以惊人的 80% 对 19% 的差距反对直播哈桑的死刑执行。

与此同时，路透社-益普索上周的一项民意调查显示，89% 的人认为纳税人资助的政治广告不合适，只有 9% 的人持相反意见。

即使在特朗普众多不得人心的政策中，也鲜有能与这些数字相提并论的。最接近的例子似乎是赦免1月6日暴力犯罪的被告，而《华盛顿邮报》的另一项民调显示，83%的登记选民反对赦免，只有16%的人支持。

竟然有人认为这两个如今已被放弃的计划是可行之策——更何况是在十月的大选年——这充分说明了共和党如今的处境。直播哈桑的死亡不仅是一个令人毛骨悚然的想法（就连许多共和党人都对此表示反对），而且还会让伊斯兰极端分子获得宣传上的胜利，将哈桑塑造成一个广为人知的烈士。

但显然没有人愿意向特朗普或国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯表达疑虑——或者这些疑虑太容易被驳回了。

别以为这些只是个别案例，看看特朗普周三在集会上都说了些什么吧。

在亚利桑那州，特朗普大肆宣传他最近对加拿大发起的贸易战，以及他过去提出的将加拿大或格陵兰岛变成美国第 51 个州的提议。

“他们太残暴了，我们再也忍受不了这种狗屁倒灶的事了，”特朗普谈到加拿大对美国的贸易政策时说道。

“他们最终会成为美国的第51个州，因为这是唯一可行的办法，”特朗普说道，随后又补充道：“就像格陵兰岛一样。”接着，他又谈到了格陵兰岛，声称他从未真正打算入侵该地区——尽管他曾公开保留过这一选项。

这就像一个由三层极不受欢迎的政策组成的三明治。

特朗普对格陵兰岛的处理方式？2月份的一项民意调查显示，72%的人对此表示不满。

让加拿大成为美国第51个州？去年，根据不同的民意调查结果，反对者占75%或80%。

特朗普最近对加拿大加征关税？当时，美国民众以近3比1的比例（57%比20%）反对这项政策。

现在就提及关税都是政治上的失策。福克斯新闻、美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心和CNN最近几周的民调都显示，大约十分之七的美国人或登记选民对特朗普在关税问题上的立场表示不满。每项民调都显示，这是他迄今为止在这一问题上的最差支持率。

有人可能会说，解释关税的逻辑更好，但这与伊朗战争等话题有一个关键区别：关税是一个完全自愿的想法，要在距离竞选结束不到三周的时间里去推行和推广。

周三，特朗普在亚利桑那州和蒙大拿州继续宣称美国经济形势良好。他表示“关税不会导致通货膨胀”，并声称美国变得更加富裕，这既得益于关税，也得益于高油价。

“由于油价高企，我们国家赚的钱比以往任何时候都多，”特朗普在亚利桑那州布尔黑德城说道。他补充说，“我更关心普通民众，而不是权贵”，但在产油州，“我们正在赚大钱”。

一年多来，特朗普一直在重复这种论调——基本上就是告诉人们没有通货膨胀，经济正处于“黄金时代”。

尽管这种论点显然无法说服选民，但他仍然坚持这样做。甚至可以说，这种做法适得其反。

皮尤研究中心上个月的一项民调显示，42%的美国人认为美国经济“糟糕”，80%的人认为经济“一般”或“糟糕”。这两项数据均创下特朗普第二任期以来的新高。

如果说有什么影响的话，那就是这些乐观的言论似乎只会让美国民众觉得特朗普脱离群众，忽视了他们的消费能力问题。毕竟，就在本周，他连续两天遭遇了糟糕的通胀指标，包括周四公布的数据显示，美国9月份的批发通胀率飙升至四年多来的最高水平。

这一切都令人震惊。评论员们常常试图在特朗普的行动中寻找隐藏的政治考量。但在他的第二个任期内，似乎越来越没有真正的政治策略在指导他的行动。这一切看起来都只是冲动和傲慢，几乎不受选举和政治考量的约束。

直到民调结果证实十分之八的人认为一个糟糕的想法确实是一个糟糕的想法之后，他才改变了立场。