Japan to OK new US Marine littoral regiment on Okinawa

WASHINGTON ― Japan on Wednesday will formally approve U.S. plans for a new Marine quick-reaction force on Okinawa and unveil plans to deepen military cooperation on Japan’s remote southwest islands near Taiwan, according to U.S. officials.

The new Marine littoral regiment would be stationed by 2025 and have advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, anti-ship, and transportation capabilities, U.S. officials said. The formal recognition is slated to come in a joint statement Wednesday after high-level talks between U.S. and Japanese national security officials.

The talks come as Tokyo signals its willingness to take on a more offensive role in the Pacific given its view of China as its biggest strategic challenge, newly outlined in Japan’s defense strategy last month. There are growing concerns in Japan and the U.S. that Taiwan may become a military flashpoint in the region as China regards the self-governing island as part of its own territory.

The joint statement will welcome Japan’s new aim to acquire “counterstrike capabilities” ― part of the nation’s plans to double its defense budget. The planned expenditure would make Japan the world’s third biggest military spender.

Wednesday, Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada and Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi will meet with American counterparts Lloyd Austin and Antony Blinken . Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will then meet with U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday.

“The leaders will discuss our shared vision of a modernized alliance that will tackle 21st century challenges in the Indo-Pacific and around the world,” Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said Tuesday. “China certainly will be a topic of discussion with our Japanese allies during the consultative meetings this week.”

Ryder said the meeting will provide an opportunity to discuss how to modernize the alliance and maintain a stable and secure Pacific, but declined to provide details on the new agreement.

The U.S. Marine Corps said publicly months ago it plans in 2025 to transform the Okinawa-based 12th Marine Regiment, an artillery unit, into a 12th Marine Littoral Regiment. However, Yomiuri Shimbun broke the news this week that Japan would formally agree to the quick-reaction force, meant to counter Chinese adventurism in the disputed Senkaku Islands.

Reportedly, the U.S. would not add troops on Okinawa, but reorganize some into a Marine littoral regiment, usually made up of 2,000 Marines. There are roughly 18,000 Marines in Japan, and while the Japanese government mostly supports U.S. bases, the presence of U.S. military personnel is unpopular among many Okinawans .

Okinawa Prefecture’s office in Washington said in a statement “it’s necessary to demand a firm explanation” of the planned changes from both governments. Okinawans are anxious about militarizing the southwestern islands, and strengthening them runs counter to their desire to reduce the base burden.

“We believe that the maintenance of order and stability in the region requires not only increased deterrence, but also constant diplomatic efforts,” said the statement.

The force structure changes compliment Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger’s Force Design 2030, a plan to refashion the Corps with units that can be dispersible, highly mobile and hard to track.

The first of three planned units, the 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment, stood up last March in Hawaii. Officials have said the units will be armed with Navy strike missiles mounted on unmanned Joint Light Tactical Vehicles and able to target enemy ships; MQ-9A Reapers for unmanned extended-range intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and a Ground/Air Task Oriented Radar, or G/ATOR.

U.S. officials describing the joint statement said the unit is the Marine Corps’ most advanced formation and would provide a stand-in force able to defend Japan and quickly respond to contingencies.

Tokyo, wary of rankling China, was long hesitant to allow such force posture changes, but it’s likely China’s launch of ballistic missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone in recent months helped upend that thinking, said Eric Sayers, a former senior adviser to U.S. Pacific Command who is now a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

“Having these modern, mobile, lethal Marine Corps units in the southwestern islands that can operate independently, operate alongside Japanese units, is sending a pretty strong signal to Beijing that the alliance will continue to upgrade itself and deter a [Chinese] course of action in Taiwan,” Sayers said.

The two countries were also expected to hail the U.S. Air Force’s deployment of MQ-9 Reapers to Kanoya Air Base in southern Japan , where they have been conducting reconnaissance flights. Their patrols can collect information about Chinese military activity in the area — including signs it may be preparing to invade Taiwan — and about North Korea, which recently fired a ballistic missile over Japan.

Japan in December committed to acquiring long-range weapons and to continue increasing its defense budget as part of its latest National Security Strategy. Japan is seeking to buy U.S.-made Tomahawks and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles that can reach potential targets in China ― and extend the range of its Type 12 missile.

In the new joint statement, the U.S. and Japan commit to exploring more effective alliance command-and-control relationships to improve interoperability and responsiveness, U.S. officials said this week.

According to former Biden National Security Council official Christopher Johnstone, the Japanese counter-strike capability would set the stage for a far deeper level of command-and-control integration with the U.S. than exists today. That’s because Japan will likely rely heavily on U.S. intelligence and targeting support as it develops the capability.

“Any scenario in which Japan is launching long-range cruise missiles at targets in China or North Korea would almost certainly coincide with U.S. military action; the allies therefore will need to develop an integrated process for target identification, prioritization, and deconfliction to maximize the effectiveness of U.S. and Japanese strike operations. This capacity does not exist today,” Johnstone, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a recent paper.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies separately recommended, based on its recent war games of a Taiwan scenario, the U.S. prioritize deepening diplomatic and military ties with Japan. Based on its projections that the U.S. and Japan would suffer devastating losses of vital aircraft on the ground to China’s missiles, CSIS called for working with Tokyo to harden bases and plan for the use of civilian airfields.

For a Chinese takeover of Taiwan to be thwarted, it’s critical for the U.S. and its warplanes to be able to operate out of its bases in Japan, the think tank concluded. Without U.S. fighters based in Japan for escorts, U.S. bombers would be vulnerable to Chinese fighters armed with extreme-range air-to-air missiles ― and China would be able to concentrate on targets in Taiwan.

With reporting by Irene Loewenson, Megan Eckstein and Rachel. S. Cohen.

Joe Gould was the senior Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. He had previously served as Congress reporter.

华盛顿——据美国官员称，日本将于周三正式批准美国在冲绳组建新的海军陆战队快速反应部队的计划，并公布深化在日本靠近台湾的西南偏远岛屿上开展军事合作的计划。

美国官员表示，新的海军陆战队近海团将于2025年部署到位，并具备先进的情报、监视和侦察、反舰和运输能力。美日两国国家安全官员举行高级别会谈后，预计将于周三发表联合声明，正式承认这一合作。

此次会谈正值东京方面发出信号，表明其愿意在太平洋地区扮演更具进攻性的角色。东京方面将中国视为其最大的战略挑战，这一观点已在日本上个月发布的国防战略中得到阐述。日本和美国日益担忧，台湾可能成为该地区的军事冲突点，因为中国将这个自治岛屿视为其领土的一部分。

联合声明将对日本寻求“反击能力”的新目标表示欢迎——这是日本计划将其国防预算翻一番的一部分。这项计划支出将使日本成为世界第三大军费开支国。

周三，防卫大臣滨田康一和外相林佳正将分别与美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀和外相安东尼·布林肯会面。随后，日本首相岸田文雄将于周五与美国总统乔·拜登会面。

五角大楼新闻秘书帕特·莱德准将周二表示：“领导人将讨论我们对现代化联盟的共同愿景，以应对印太地区乃至全球21世纪的挑战。中国问题无疑将是本周与日本盟友磋商会议的议题之一。”

莱德表示，此次会议将提供一个机会，讨论如何使联盟现代化并维护太平洋的稳定和安全，但他拒绝透露新协议的细节。

美国海军陆战队数月前公开表示，计划于2025年将驻冲绳的第12海军陆战联队（一支炮兵部队）改编为第12海军陆战近海联队。然而，《读卖新闻》本周爆料称，日本将正式同意组建这支快速反应部队，旨在应对中国在有争议的钓鱼岛地区的冒险行为。

据报道，美国不会在冲绳增派兵力，而是将部分兵力重组为一支海军陆战队近岸团，通常由2000名海军陆战队员组成。目前日本驻扎着大约18000名海军陆战队员。虽然日本政府总体上支持美军基地，但美军的存在在许多冲绳民众中并不受欢迎。

冲绳县驻华盛顿办事处在一份声明中表示，“有必要要求两国政府就计划中的变更做出明确解释”。冲绳民众对西南岛屿的军事化感到担忧，加强这些岛屿的军事力量与他们减轻基地负担的愿望背道而驰。

声明称：“我们认为，维护该地区的秩序与稳定不仅需要加强威慑，还需要持续不断的外交努力。”

部队结构的变化与海军陆战队司令大卫·伯杰将军的“2030 年部队设计”计划相辅相成，该计划旨在重塑海军陆战队，使其部队能够分散部署、高度机动且难以追踪。

计划组建的三支部队中的第一支——第三海军陆战队近海团——于去年三月在夏威夷成立。官员们表示，这些部队将配备安装在无人联合轻型战术车辆上的海军打击导弹，能够打击敌方舰艇；MQ-9A“死神”无人机，用于执行无人远程情报、监视和侦察任务；以及地面/空中任务导向雷达（G/ATOR）。

美国官员在描述联合声明时表示，该部队是海军陆战队最先进的部队，将提供一支能够保卫日本并快速应对突发事件的备用部队。

美国太平洋司令部前高级顾问、现任美国企业研究所研究员埃里克·塞耶斯表示，东京一直担心触怒中国，因此长期以来不愿允许这种军事态势的变化。但中国近几个月来向日本专属经济区发射弹道导弹的举动，很可能改变了日本的这种想法。

“在西南岛屿部署这些现代化、机动性强、杀伤力十足的海军陆战队部队，它们能够独立作战，也能与日本部队并肩作战，这向北京发出了一个非常强烈的信号，即美日同盟将继续提升自身实力，并阻止中国在台湾采取任何行动，”赛耶斯说。

两国预计还将对美国空军向日本南部鹿屋空军基地部署MQ-9“死神”无人机表示欢迎，这些无人机一直在该基地执行侦察飞行任务。它们的巡逻可以收集有关该地区中国军事活动的信息——包括中国可能正在准备入侵台湾的迹象——以及有关朝鲜的信息，朝鲜最近向日本上空发射了一枚弹道导弹。

日本在去年12月发布的最新国家安全战略中承诺，将采购远程武器并继续增加国防预算。日本正寻求购买美国制造的“战斧”巡航导弹和联合空对地防区外导弹，这些导弹能够打击中国境内的潜在目标，并提升其12型导弹的射程。

美国官员本周表示，在新的联合声明中，美国和日本承诺探索更有效的联盟指挥控制关系，以提高互操作性和响应能力。

据拜登国家安全委员会前官员克里斯托弗·约翰斯通称，日本的反击能力将为日美之间比现在更深层次的指挥控制一体化奠定基础。这是因为日本在发展这项能力的过程中，很可能高度依赖美国的情报和目标定位支持。

“任何日本向中国或朝鲜境内目标发射远程巡航导弹的情景，几乎肯定会伴随着美国的军事行动；因此，盟国需要制定一套综合的目标识别、优先级排序和冲突消除流程，以最大限度地提高美日打击行动的效率。目前，这种能力尚不存在。”约翰斯通（现任职于战略与国际研究中心）在最近的一篇论文中指出。

战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）根据其近期针对台湾局势的兵棋推演，建议美国优先深化与日本的外交和军事关系。CSIS预测，美日两国地面重要飞机将因中国导弹袭击而遭受毁灭性损失，因此呼吁与东京合作，加强基地防御，并制定使用民用机场的计划。

该智库得出结论，要阻止中国吞并台湾，美国及其战机必须能够从其在日本的基地开展行动。如果没有驻日美军战斗机护航，美国轰炸机将很容易受到装备超远程空空导弹的中国战斗机的攻击，而中国则能够集中火力打击台湾目标。

艾琳·洛文森、梅根·埃克斯坦和雷切尔·S·科恩报道。

乔·古尔德是《防务新闻》的资深五角大楼记者，负责报道国家安全政策、政治和国防工业的交汇点。他此前曾担任国会记者。