Without Charlie Kirk, Turning Point is building a future for his movement — and for JD Vance

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Charlie Kirk sat before a Salt Lake City audience of restaurateurs last September 10, dispensing business advice drawn from his own unlikely rise.

The conservative activist argued that a company needed a deep connection to the founder’s “energy and vision” to endure, but he also warned that “separating the brand from the founder” was among the greatest challenges an entrepreneur could face.

“We have not done this successfully yet,” Kirk acknowledged of Turning Point USA, the organization he built to influence and mobilize young people.

Hours later, a gunman fatally shot Kirk on a Utah college campus. He was 31.

In the year since his death, Turning Point’s leaders — including Kirk’s widow, Erika , and some of his closest friends and lieutenants — have confronted the very challenge he described that tragic morning: preserving and expanding a political movement that had been built, to an extraordinary degree, around the energy, instincts and celebrity of its charismatic leader.

They have done so amid remarkable circumstances, including the criminal case against Kirk’s alleged killer ; conservative influencers warring over his legacy ; and far-right figures, led by former Turning Point employee Candace Owens , spreading baseless conspiracy theories about his death.

The 2026 midterm elections present the biggest test yet of the question hanging over the organization: What is Turning Point without Charlie Kirk?

“There is a void, and lots of people are trying to fill it,” Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters told CNN, “but no one will be able to do what he did.”

By some measures, the answer is a larger organization than the one Kirk left behind. About 1,500 colleges have Turning Point chapters on campus, up 64% over the past year, according to an internal document obtained by CNN, and affiliated high school clubs have nearly tripled. Turning Point now says it has over 1 million donors and more than 1,200 employees.

Its political operation is expanding, too. Turning Point staff and volunteers are embedded in more states with contests critical to Republican power in 2026 — and the presidential race two years later.

The stakes extend to the political ambitions of Vice President JD Vance, a close Kirk friend whom the organization has already endorsed for president in 2028. Whether the organization can sustain Kirk’s movement — and mobilize the voters he spent years courting — could help determine whether the vice president can inherit the political coalition Donald Trump assembled.

“If you believe in JD that much, that’s even more motivation to work our butts off and throw the kitchen sink at this thing,” said Tyler Bowyer, the chief operating officer for Turning Point Action. “We’re going to do everything we possibly can to win (in 2026) because so much is at stake — in this case, getting JD to run.”

Turning Point’s own effectiveness, though, has come under scrutiny in its home state, Arizona, where some Republicans fault the polarizing organization for the party’s recent electoral defeats. This year, the group has put its muscle behind Rep. Andy Biggs, a conservative Trump ally whose candidacy for governor has revived anxieties about hard-right nominees who narrowly lost statewide races.

Meanwhile, the political coalition Turning Point helped build faces new strains largely beyond the organization’s control. Polls show that young voters, whose sharp shift toward Trump in 2024 further elevated Kirk’s stature within the party, have soured on the president.

Turning Point spokesman Andrew Kolvet acknowledged the movement is facing headwinds, “and that’s especially true among young voters.”

“They are telling us they are worried about housing, affordability, foreign policy, etc.,” Kolvet said. “But if anyone has the political talent and ability to address their needs, wants and concerns directly ahead of the midterms, it’s President Trump and JD Vance.”

Benjamin Hanson/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images

Kirk founded Turning Point USA in 2012 at age 18. What began as a nonprofit for young conservatives eventually grew into a sprawling, multimillion-dollar network that touched all aspects of American politics, including faith, culture, schools, voter registration, candidate endorsements and campaign fundraising.

But Turning Point also served as a massive platform for Kirk himself. His podcast and viral confrontations with liberals on college campuses made him one of the right’s most visible personalities, while his relationships across the movement bridged some of the divides within Trump’s MAGA coalition.

That part of Turning Point has proved difficult to replace.

Clips from Kirk’s podcast, now hosted by Kolvet, rarely draw the YouTube audiences they once did. Others have tried, with mixed success, to re-create the virality of his campus debates. And the right-wing online ecosystem where Kirk served as connective tissue between competing factions has frayed during Trump’s second term.

Turning Point’s leaders privately acknowledge there is no replacing Kirk, who will be honored one year after his death at Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas on Thursday. Instead, they have focused on what they can preserve and expand: the organization he built around himself.

“Yes, we don’t have Charlie’s social media anymore, which is a big loss. And we don’t have his voice — huge deal,” a person involved in the organization told CNN. “But the actual machinery of Turning Point has never been bigger.”

As evidence, they pointed to a recent training for 150 new staffers. Online job boards show dozens of openings to work for Turning Point in battleground states.

“We’re going to be even bigger this election than we were in 2024,” Bowyer said.

Political memorabilia adorns the shelves of Bowyer’s office — a Calvin Coolidge pendant, a bust of Teddy Roosevelt, and a framed print of Newsweek’s never-published 2016 “Madam President” cover of Hillary Clinton next to Time’s cover featuring Trump as Person of the Year.

Among them is a painting of Kirk, whose face is inescapable throughout Turning Point’s Arizona campus.

There, Bowyer oversees the organization’s voter turnout machine — the “pinnacle” of Kirk’s legacy, as he described it.

“It’s kind of like the Super Bowl,” Bowyer said. “It’s pointless to educate hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of young people, for them just to go, ‘Oh, you know, don’t use that.’ Right?”

He added, “Charlie really believes in that,” slipping into present tense to describe his deceased friend and former leader — not for the only time during a 90-minute interview with CNN.

Bowyer is now expanding a program piloted in the 2024 election. Then, the group embedded staff and volunteers in neighborhoods throughout Arizona to mobilize potential Republican voters. Rather than send canvassers to knock on as many doors as possible, Turning Point instructed its organizers to make genuine connections, build relationships, show up at local events and, at least initially, avoid talking politics.

It’s a strategy built around quality, not quantity, Bowyer argues.

By Election Day, organizers are expected to have a plan for getting their assigned households — about 600 to 1,000 people — to the polls or to vote by mail. “Ballot chasers” are tasked with ensuring they follow through. Each organizer’s goal is to turn out about half their designated voters — a much higher threshold than traditional canvassers.

The effectiveness of the operation is difficult to measure, and there are Republican skeptics, including within Trump’s own political operation. But Turning Point emerged from 2024 with a compelling result to point to: Trump won Arizona by 5.5 percentage points, his largest victory of all the battleground states.

Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

The victory emboldened Turning Point to double down in 2026. Even before the midterm map had fully taken shape, the organization was deploying staff and hiring in key battleground states. Maps of those states line the walls inside Turning Point Action’s headquarters with heat maps of voters and detailed breakdowns on “chaseable votes.”

This spring, the operation had a dry run when it joined the White House’s retribution campaign against Republican lawmakers in Indiana who resisted Trump’s calls to redraw the state’s congressional boundaries. Trump-backed challengers defeated seven of the eight GOP holdouts.

Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith, a Trump ally, said Turning Point mobilized quickly despite little history in his state and noted the group left behind manpower for future political battles.

“The proof is in the pudding. Critics could say, ‘This is the first year. What good are they going to do?’” Beckwith said. “I don’t know how you break down the pie chart of who deserves credit, but we won and won in a big way.”

Republican operatives in key states say Turning Point is already making its presence felt. Former New Hampshire GOP Chairman Chris Ager said the group arrived on the ground far earlier than usual for a grassroots organization, hired experienced local activists and their visibility has been “extremely high.”

Jason Roe, a veteran Michigan strategist, said Turning Point’s organizers have been more “engaged and impactful” than the college-age men and women he typically encounters in groups for young Republican.

“Turning Point is made up of true believers,” Roe said. “They’re griding because they care, not because it’s the first step on a journey to getting involved in politics.”

In Iowa, Turning Point’s growing influence has already been tested against the most powerful endorsement in Republican politics.

The organization supported businessman and farmer Zach Lahn in the state’s closely watched Republican primary for governor. Trump backed Rep. Randy Feenstra.

“We were so busy talking about the Trump endorsement,” said Jeff Angelo, a prominent conservative radio host in Iowa, “that we missed the most important endorsement: Turning Point Action.”

Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

No one needs less convincing of Turning Point’s sway with GOP voters than Julie Spilsbury.

Last year, Bowyer made it his stated mission to oust Spilsbury, a registered Republican who supported Kamala Harris for president over Trump, from the City Council in Mesa, where he resides. Turning Point helped lead an effort to recall her, and in December 2025, Spilsbury lost the seat she had held for five years by about 700 votes.

“It was devastating and heartbreaking and made a lot of people mad,” she said.

Spilsbury considers herself a casualty of Turning Point’s growing clout in the Arizona GOP — and what she and others described as its vindictive approach to intraparty politics. The organization has aggressively intervened in primaries and endorsed dozens of candidates, stacking up wins and bruising fellow Republicans along the way.

The clashes have become increasingly public. Bowyer faced blowback in July after he questioned on X whether Arizona state Rep. Quang Nguyen, a Republican who escaped communist Vietnam as a child, can speak English . When Republican state Rep. Nick Kupper came to Nguyen’s defense , Bowyer threatened to back a challenger against Kupper in 2028 and later announced Turning Point was withdrawing its endorsement.

Reached by CNN via email, Kupper declined to revisit the episode. Attempts to reach Nguyen through his office were unsuccessful.

Such tactics might go overlooked by Republicans in the Trump era if Turning Point was consistently turning its primary success into general election wins. In Arizona, it has not.

The organization played a key role in the unsuccessful 2022 campaigns of Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters. Lake lost a Senate race two years later.

A Turning Point official noted the organization didn’t endorse Lake in her primaries but jumped in to help after she became the GOP nominee. Still, Bowyer contended they were “on the path for Kari to win” in 2022. The lesson from the loss, he argued, was that the organization needed more manpower.

“If we would have kept going and chased more votes, I think we could have won,” he said. Lake lost the governor’s race by roughly 17,000 votes.

The defeats have spread to far smaller Arizona contests. Earlier this year, Turning Point jumped into races for the Salt River Project, a local utility board whose elections typically draw little public attention. The group’s involvement drove a surge in turnout from both sides, but clean-energy candidates ultimately won a majority of seats for the first time in recent memory.

The Turning Point official argued that the group secured the two most critical positions leading the board “amid national headwinds that have impacted local races.” But progressives claimed victory after the election, and even local Republicans have acknowledged the board’s leftward turn was a significant setback.

“I think (Turning Point) is bombing hard, and it’s excellent for everyone else. I hesitate to say too much because we don’t want them to stop,” said Autumn Johnson, executive director of the Arizona Solar Energy Industries Association. “They have absolutely no idea what they’re doing, and they don’t know they don’t know what they’re doing. And it turns out a lot of people hate them.”

Their presence is causing divisions within the GOP at a time when the party is losing power across the state, argued Nick Myers, a member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, a state utility board. A Turning Point-backed challenger defeated Myers in a primary earlier this year. He said he lost the organization’s support after a back-and-forth on X with Bowyer a few years ago.

“As soon as they started getting involved, Republicans started losing,” Myers said. “It’s not because we’re becoming a purple state. Voters can’t stand the candidates Turning Point is nominating. Their days are limited if they don’t start putting up candidates who can win.”

The organization is betting on Biggs, the gubernatorial nominee, to reverse the party’s recent fortunes. The Turning Point official noted that Biggs was one of Kirk’s final and most passionate endorsements, viewing him as “a transformational and generational leader for Arizona — somebody who could turn Arizona into the Florida of the West.”

Bowyer said Biggs is a more seasoned politician than his predecessors and is better positioned to take on Katie Hobbs, the nation’s most vulnerable Democratic governor this year. Turning Point is now more experienced in campaign work, too, he added.

Some Republicans in Arizona view the race as a referendum on Turning Point as much as Biggs. Barrett Marson, a longtime GOP operative in Arizona, said if Biggs wins, many Republicans expect Turning Point to effectively take over the state GOP. A loss, though, would have its own consequences.

“Turning Point is all in on two people: Andy Biggs and JD Vance,” Marson said. “If both of those guys lose their upcoming elections, I predict they won’t be around much after 2028.”

Turning Point recently doubled its staff in Iowa and is rapidly deploying organizers in New Hampshire ahead of key midterm races in both states. When the elections are over, the teams will remain — and wait for Vance to make a decision.

Erika Kirk sent one of the first shockwaves through the 2028 presidential race in December when she endorsed Vance — getting ahead not only of the vice president, but of Trump, who is widely expected to play a decisive role in choosing his successor. Since then, Turning Point has set out to demonstrate that a turnkey organization will be waiting for Vance if he launches a White House bid.

Ager, the former New Hampshire party chairman, said Turning Point could present a “significant organizational advantage out of the gate” for Vance in 2028 when Republicans there vote in the GOP’s first presidential primary. Iowa, meanwhile, will hold the party’s first nominating contest.

“It’s still up to the candidate to convince voters,” he said. “But a good organization absolutely helps.”

Vance has remained close to Turning Point, appearing at several events and guest-hosting Kirk’s podcast.

The mutual loyalty is “downstream of the genuine close friendship that JD had with Charlie,” a source close to the vice president told CNN. Kirk helped propel Vance within the party and into his current role.

Though he remains reticent to publicly discuss his political future, Vance privately views Turning Point’s support as a key to his future ambitions, the source said. The organization offers Vance a connection to “America First” stalwarts in Trump’s coalition and a well-funded political infrastructure separate from the president’s political operation.

“They are specifically a MAGA power center, versus a traditional power center,” the source said. “They are distinctly different from the old guard establishment that wouldn’t necessarily support JD, and that serves as a true home for the MAGA voters.”

Bowyer said he expects Vance to closely watch the midterm results before he finalizes his plans. But he added, “If people want you to run, and you decide not to run, you usually don’t ever get a chance to run again.”

For Turning Point, delivering Republican victories this fall, particularly in Arizona, would give Vance reason to trust the organization Kirk left behind could help carry him to the White House.

Failure would bring its own reckoning, and Bowyer said Turning Point would judge itself more harshly than any outside critic if the group fell short.

Said Bowyer: “Charlie felt that way.”

CNN’s Alayna Treene contributed to this report.

Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

去年 9 月 10 日，查理·柯克坐在盐湖城的一群餐馆老板面前，根据自己不可思议的崛起经历，提出了商业建议。

这位保守派活动家认为，公司需要与创始人的“活力和愿景”建立深厚的联系才能长久发展，但他同时也警告说，“将品牌与创始人分开”是企业家可能面临的最大挑战之一。

“我们还没有成功做到这一点，”柯克承认，他创建的旨在影响和动员年轻人的组织“美国转折点”对此表示不满。

数小时后，一名枪手在犹他州一所大学校园内枪杀了柯克。他年仅31岁。

在他去世后的一年里，“转折点”的领导人——包括柯克的遗孀埃里卡，以及他的一些最亲密的朋友和副手——面临着他在那个悲惨的早晨所描述的挑战：维护和扩大一个政治运动，这个运动在很大程度上是围绕着其魅力领袖的活力、直觉和名望而建立起来的。

他们这样做是在非同寻常的情况下进行的，包括针对柯克涉嫌凶手的刑事案件；保守派有影响力人士为争夺他的遗产而进行的斗争；以及以“转折点”前雇员坎迪斯·欧文斯为首的极右翼人士散布有关他死亡的毫无根据的阴谋论。

2026 年中期选举将对该组织面临的问题进行迄今为止最大的考验：没有查理·柯克，转折点组织会是什么样子？

“现在出现了一个空缺，很多人都在试图填补它，”共和党全国委员会主席乔·格鲁特斯告诉CNN，“但没有人能够做到他所做的事。”

从某些方面来看，如今的组织规模比柯克离开时还要庞大。据CNN获得的一份内部文件显示，目前约有1500所大学设有“转折点”（Turning Point）分会，比去年增长了64%，而附属高中俱乐部的数量也几乎翻了三倍。“转折点”目前拥有超过100万名捐赠者和1200多名员工。

它的政治运作也在不断扩大。“转折点”组织的工作人员和志愿者已经深入到更多对共和党在2026年大选中的权力至关重要的州，以及两年后的总统大选中。

此事关乎副总统 JD Vance 的政治抱负，他是 Kirk 的密友，该组织已公开支持他参加 2028 年总统竞选。该组织能否维持 Kirk 的运动，并动员他多年来一直争取的选民，可能有助于决定这位副总统能否继承唐纳德·特朗普建立的政治联盟。

“如果你对JD如此信任，那就更有动力让我们拼尽全力，不惜一切代价，” Turning Point Action的首席运营官泰勒·鲍耶说道。“我们将竭尽所能赢得（2026年的）选举，因为这事关重大——就目前而言，就是让JD参选。”

然而，转折点组织自身的影响力在其总部所在地亚利桑那州却受到了质疑。一些共和党人将该党近期选举失利归咎于这个极具争议的组织。今年，该组织全力支持众议员安迪·比格斯，这位保守派特朗普盟友的州长候选人竞选再次引发了人们对那些在全州选举中以微弱劣势落败的极右翼候选人的担忧。

与此同时，由“转折点”组织协助建立的政治联盟正面临着一些该组织难以控制的新压力。民调显示，年轻选民对特朗普的态度已经转变，而他们在2024年大选中对特朗普的急剧支持进一步提升了柯克在党内的地位。

“转折点”发言人安德鲁·科尔维特承认，该运动正面临阻力，“尤其是在年轻选民中更是如此”。

科尔维特说：“他们告诉我们，他们担心住房、生活成本、外交政策等等。但如果说谁有能力和才华在期中选举前直接解决他们的需求、愿望和担忧，那就是特朗普总统和JD·万斯。”

Benjamin Hanson/中东图片社/法新社/盖蒂图片社

柯克在 2012 年 18 岁时创立了 Turning Point USA。这个最初面向年轻保守派的非营利组织最终发展成为一个庞大的、价值数百万美元的网络，其触角遍及美国政治的各个方面，包括信仰、文化、学校、选民登记、候选人背书和竞选筹款。

但“转折点”也为柯克本人提供了一个巨大的平台。他的播客节目以及在大学校园里与自由派人士的激烈交锋，使他成为右翼阵营中最引人注目的人物之一，而他在整个运动中建立的人脉关系，也弥合了特朗普“让美国再次伟大”联盟内部的一些分歧。

Turning Point 的那部分工作很难替代。

柯克播客的片段，如今由科尔维特主持，在YouTube上的点击量已远不如从前。其他人也曾尝试重现他校园辩论的爆款效应，但效果参差不齐。此外，在特朗普的第二个任期内，柯克曾作为右翼网络生态系统中各派系之间纽带的那个生态系统也日渐瓦解。

“转折点”组织的领导人私下承认，柯克是无法被取代的。在他逝世一周年之际，特朗普将于周四在达拉斯举行的中期选举大会上缅怀他。因此，他们专注于能够保留和发展的东西：他一手创建的组织。

“是的，我们失去了查理的社交媒体账号，这确实是一个巨大的损失。我们也失去了他的声音——这影响非常大，”一位参与该组织的人士告诉CNN。“但‘转折点’的实际运作规模从未如此庞大。”

作为证据，他们指出最近为150名新员工举办了一次培训。在线招聘网站显示，在几个关键州，有数十个职位空缺，都在招聘“转折点”组织的员工。

“我们这次选举的规模将会比2024年更大，”鲍耶说。

鲍耶办公室的架子上摆满了政治纪念品——卡尔文·柯立芝的吊坠、西奥多·罗斯福的半身像，以及《新闻周刊》2016 年从未发表过的“总统夫人”封面照片（照片中的希拉里·克林顿），旁边是《时代》杂志以特朗普为年度人物的封面。

其中一幅是柯克的画像，在 Turning Point 的亚利桑那州校区，到处都能看到他的脸。

在那里，鲍耶负责监督该组织的选民投票率提升机制——正如柯克所描述的，这是他留下的“巅峰”遗产。

“这有点像超级碗，”鲍耶说。“教育成千上万，甚至数百万的年轻人，结果他们只是说，‘哦，你知道，不要用那个。’，这毫无意义，对吧？”

他补充道：“查理真的相信这一点，”在与 CNN 进行 90 分钟的采访时，他用现在时态描述了他已故的朋友和前领导人——这并非他唯一一次使用现在时态。

鲍耶目前正在扩大一项在2024年大选中试行的项目。当时，该组织在亚利桑那州各地社区部署工作人员和志愿者，动员潜在的共和党选民。与派人挨家挨户敲门拉票不同，“转折点”组织指示其组织者与选民建立真诚的联系，发展人际关系，积极参与当地活动，并且至少在初期避免谈论政治。

鲍耶认为，这是一种以质量而非数量为核心的战略。

到选举日当天，组织者需要制定计划，确保其负责的家庭（约600至1000人）能够前往投票站投票或通过邮寄方式投票。“选票督导员”的任务是确保这些计划落实到位。每位组织者的目标是动员其负责选民的一半左右——这一目标远高于传统的拉票员。

这项行动的效果难以衡量，共和党内部也有人持怀疑态度，甚至包括特朗普自己的政治团队内部也有人。但“转折点2024”项目最终得出了一个令人信服的成果：特朗普在亚利桑那州以5.5个百分点的优势获胜，这是他在所有摇摆州中取得的最大胜利。

吉姆·沃森/法新社/盖蒂图片社

这场胜利鼓舞了“转折点”组织，使其在2026年加大了投入。甚至在中期选举格局尚未完全明朗之前，该组织就已在关键摇摆州部署人员并招募人才。在“转折点行动”总部，这些州的地图贴满了墙壁，上面有选民分布热力图和“可争取选票”的详细分析。

今年春天，这项行动进行了一次预演，当时它参与了白宫针对印第安纳州共和党议员的报复行动，这些议员拒绝了特朗普重新划分该州国会选区的呼吁。特朗普支持的挑战者击败了八名共和党反对者中的七名。

印第安纳州副州长米卡·贝克威斯是特朗普的盟友，他表示，尽管“转折点”组织在该州的历史并不长，但该组织还是迅速动员起来，并指出该组织留下了人力，以备将来参与政治斗争。

“事实胜于雄辩。批评者可能会说，‘这是第一年，他们能做出什么成绩？’”贝克威斯说，“我不知道该如何划分功劳归属，但我们赢了，而且赢得非常漂亮。”

关键州的共和党人士表示，“转折点”（Turning Point）组织已经开始展现其影响力。新罕布什尔州共和党前主席克里斯·阿格尔表示，该组织比一般草根组织更早抵达当地，聘请了经验丰富的当地积极分子，其活动范围“非常广”。

密歇根州资深战略家杰森·罗伊表示，“转折点”的组织者比他通常在年轻共和党团体中遇到的大学生更“积极投入，更有影响力”。

罗伊说：“‘转折点’组织是由一群真正的信徒组成的。他们参与其中是因为他们关心此事，而不是因为这是他们投身政治的第一步。”

在爱荷华州，转折点组织日益增长的影响力已经经受住了共和党政治中最有影响力的支持的考验。

该组织支持商人兼农场主扎克·拉恩参加备受瞩目的共和党州长初选。特朗普则支持众议员兰迪·芬斯特拉。

“我们当时忙着讨论特朗普的背书，”爱荷华州一位著名的保守派电台主持人杰夫·安杰洛说，“却错过了最重要的背书：转折点行动组织。”

Patrick T. Fallon/法新社/盖蒂图片社

对于“转折点”组织在共和党选民中的影响力，没有人比朱莉·斯皮尔斯伯里更不需要被说服。

去年，鲍耶公开表示要将斯皮尔斯伯里从他居住地梅萨市的市议会除名。斯皮尔斯伯里是一名注册共和党人，她支持卡马拉·哈里斯而非特朗普竞选总统。“转折点”组织协助发起了罢免斯皮尔斯伯里的行动。2025年12月，斯皮尔斯伯里以约700票的差距失去了她已担任五年的席位。

“这令人震惊和心碎，也激怒了很多人，”她说。

斯皮尔斯伯里认为自己是“转折点”组织在亚利桑那州共和党内日益增长的影响力的受害者——她和其他人形容该组织在党内政治中采取的报复性做法。该组织积极干预初选，支持了数十位候选人，一路斩获胜利，同时也打击了其他共和党人。

这些冲突日益公开化。今年7月，鲍耶在X电视台质疑亚利桑那州共和党众议员阮光（Quang Nguyen）是否会说英语，此举引发强烈反弹。阮光幼年时逃离了共产主义越南。当共和党州众议员尼克·库珀（Nick Kupper）为阮光辩护时，鲍耶威胁要在2028年支持一位挑战者与库珀竞争，随后他又宣布“转折点”（Turning Point）组织撤回了对鲍耶的支持。

CNN通过电子邮件联系到库珀，但他拒绝再次谈及此事。CNN试图通过阮的办公室联系他，但未能成功。

如果“转折点”组织能够持续将初选胜利转化为大选胜利，那么在特朗普时代，共和党人或许会忽视这类策略。但在亚利桑那州，情况并非如此。

该组织在共和党州长候选人卡里·莱克和共和党参议员候选人布莱克·马斯特斯2022年的竞选中扮演了关键角色，但两人最终都以失败告终。两年后，莱克在参议员竞选中落败。

“转折点”组织的一位官员指出，该组织在初选中并未支持莱克，但在她成为共和党候选人后立即伸出援手。尽管如此，鲍耶仍然坚称他们“正朝着卡里赢得2022年大选的目标稳步前进”。他认为，这次失败的教训是，该组织需要更多的人力。

“如果我们继续努力，争取更多选票，我认为我们就能赢，”他说。莱克最终以大约17000票之差输掉了州长选举。

这些失败的浪潮已经蔓延到亚利桑那州规模小得多的选举中。今年早些时候，“转折点”（Turning Point）组织介入了盐河项目（Salt River Project）的选举，这是一个地方公用事业委员会，其选举通常鲜少受到公众关注。该组织的介入促使双方的投票率都大幅上升，但最终，清洁能源候选人赢得了近年来首次多数席位。

“转折点”组织的一位官员辩称，该组织是在“影响地方选举的全国性逆风”下，成功拿下董事会两个最关键的职位。但选举结束后，进步派宣称取得了胜利，甚至连当地的共和党人也承认，董事会的左倾是一个重大挫折。

“我认为（转折点）项目彻底失败了，这对其他人来说是件好事。我不想说太多，因为我们不想让他们就此止步，”亚利桑那州太阳能产业协会执行董事奥特姆·约翰逊说道。“他们完全不知道自己在做什么，而且他们自己也不知道自己不知道。结果证明，很多人都讨厌他们。”

亚利桑那州公用事业委员会成员尼克·迈尔斯认为，在共和党全州权力日渐式微之际，他们的出现正在加剧共和党内部的分裂。今年早些时候，迈尔斯在初选中被一位由“转折点”（Turning Point）组织支持的挑战者击败。迈尔斯表示，几年前他与鲍耶就X议题发生争论后，便失去了该组织的支持。

“他们一介入，共和党就开始输了，”迈尔斯说。“这并非因为我们州正在变成摇摆州。选民们无法忍受‘转折点’组织提名的候选人。如果他们不推出能够赢得选举的候选人，他们的好日子就到头了。”

该组织寄希望于州长候选人比格斯能够扭转该党近期的颓势。“转折点”组织的一位官员指出，比格斯是柯克最后也是最热情支持的候选人之一，柯克认为比格斯是“亚利桑那州具有变革意义的世代领袖——他能够将亚利桑那州打造成西部的佛罗里达州”。

鲍耶表示，比格斯比他的前任们更有政治经验，也更有能力挑战今年全美最易受攻击的民主党州长凯蒂·霍布斯。他还补充说，“转折点”组织在竞选工作方面也积累了更多经验。

亚利桑那州的一些共和党人认为，这场选举不仅是对比格斯本人的一次考验，也是对“转折点”（Turning Point）组织的一次公投。长期在亚利桑那州从事共和党工作的巴雷特·马森表示，如果比格斯获胜，许多共和党人预计“转折点”组织将有效地掌控该州共和党。然而，如果比格斯落败，也会带来相应的后果。

“转折点组织全力支持两个人：安迪·比格斯和J·D·万斯，”马森说。“如果他们俩在即将到来的选举中落败，我预测他们在2028年之后就很难再出现在政坛了。”

“转折点”组织最近在爱荷华州的员工人数翻了一番，并在新罕布什尔州和爱荷华州的关键中期选举前迅速部署组织人员。选举结束后，这些团队将继续留守，等待万斯做出决定。

去年12月，艾丽卡·柯克公开支持万斯，这在2028年总统大选中引发了不小的震动——她不仅抢在副总统之前，甚至抢在了特朗普之前——而外界普遍预期特朗普将在选择继任者方面发挥决定性作用。此后，“转折点”组织开始着手证明，如果万斯宣布竞选总统，一个成熟的组织将随时待命。

前新罕布什尔州共和党主席阿格尔表示，在2028年共和党首次举行总统初选时，“转折点”组织可能会为万斯提供“显著的组织优势”。与此同时，爱荷华州将举行该党的首次提名竞选。

“最终还是要靠候选人来说服选民，”他说。“但一个优秀的竞选团队绝对会有帮助。”

Vance 一直与 Turning Point 保持着密切联系，曾多次出席活动，并客串主持 Kirk 的播客节目。

一位接近副总统的消息人士告诉CNN，这种相互忠诚“源于JD与查理之间真挚的友谊”。柯克帮助万斯在党内站稳脚跟，并最终担任了现在的职务。

消息人士称，尽管万斯仍不愿公开谈论自己的政治前途，但他私下里将“转折点”组织的支持视为实现未来抱负的关键。该组织为万斯提供了与特朗普联盟中“美国优先”核心人物的联系，以及一套独立于总统政治运作之外、资金雄厚的政治体系。

消息人士称：“他们是MAGA（让美国再次伟大）运动的权力中心，而非传统的权力中心。他们与那些未必支持JD（约翰逊·迪克）的老牌建制派截然不同，这里才是MAGA选民真正的归属。”

鲍耶表示，他预计万斯会在最终确定计划前密切关注中期选举结果。但他补充道：“如果人们希望你参选，而你决定不参选，你通常就再也没有机会参选了。”

对于 Turning Point 来说，如果能在今年秋季为共和党带来胜利，尤其是在亚利桑那州，那么 Vance 就有理由相信 Kirk 留下的这个组织能够帮助他入主白宫。

失败必将招致清算，鲍耶表示，如果“转折点”组织失败，它将比任何外部批评者都更加严厉地审视自己。

鲍耶说：“查理就是这么想的。”

CNN的Alayna Treene对本报道亦有贡献。