‘Far too close for comfort’: An under-the-radar Senate race embodies Democrats’ midterm worries

An open Senate seat in Minnesota.

A massive GOP spending advantage in almost every battleground.

A lingering sense of unease that polling could be underestimating Republican support.

With many Democrats awash in optimism, those are just some of the potential obstacles facing the party as it seeks to deliver on expectations of reshaping the political order in Washington.

More than a dozen Democratic campaign managers, strategists and party officials told CNN that a massive spending disparity with Republican forces is their top worry heading into the closing two weeks of the campaign.

With Democrats in strong position to capture the House, President Donald Trump and Republicans are working to build a firewall in red states that have become an unlikely battlefield in the fight for control of the Senate. Democratic candidates need to earn at least some crossover support from independents and Republicans, including those skeptical that their votes could help usher in a Democratic Senate majority.

A sour political environment has left almost no Republican on the ballot immune to a forceful challenge. Yet at the same time, Democrats acknowledge they have no room for error as they try to pick up four Senate seats without losing any of the ones they currently hold.

“All the objective indicators for Democrats are bullish,” said David Axelrod, a longtime campaign strategist and CNN’s chief political analyst. “But having been burned before, and given the deluge of money being spent against them, there is a sensible instinct to throttle down expectations.”

Minnesota is often seen as the reddest blue state in America, which places it high on the list of places that Democrats are closely watching that could harbor signs of trouble if a blue wave fails to materialize.

The race to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith has largely flown under the radar compared to an unexpectedly long list of competitive races in other Midwestern states. The contest between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Democrat, and former sportscaster Michele Tafoya, a Republican, is “far too close for comfort,” a state Democratic official told CNN.

The two are scheduled to hold their only scheduled debate on Friday.

Since the general election campaign kicked off in earnest this fall, Tafoya has made a deliberate effort to separate herself from Trump and the GOP brand, recognizing the political realities in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican statewide in 20 years.

“I’m a pro-choice Republican. I’m not afraid to stand up to my party,” she said in an ad that went up last week, making a direct appeal to independent and moderate Republican voters. “When Trump is right, I’ll work with him. When he’s wrong, I’ll stand up for Minnesota.”

The president weighed in on the race during a rally this week in Ohio, saying: “You have to vote for Michele Tafoya.” Asked about it the following day, Tafoya became the rare Republican to downplay a presidential seal of approval.

“I heard about that,” Tafoya told reporters. “Look, this campaign is about bringing all Minnesotans together, whether they voted for President Trump or whether they voted for Kamala Harris.”

Trump only lost the state by less than 2 percentage points in 2016 and about 4 percentage points in 2024.

In another ad going up in the closing stretch of the race, Tafoya urges Minnesota voters to try something different.

“Minnesota’s been run by the same political establishment for too long, and it’s not working. This isn’t red versus blue. It’s right versus wrong,” she says in the spot. “I’ll be an independent voice for Minnesota because we don’t need more of the same politicians making the same excuses.”

Tafoya, however, has still made calibrated appeals to conservative voters, emphatically criticizing the state’s welfare fraud scandal while leveraging her unusually high name ID from her days as an NFL sideline reporter and local radio host.

“I spent 30 years covering football and I learned one thing: When you fail this badly, you get fired. Hundreds of millions stolen, money meant for hungry kids gone,” she says in her top-airing ad since September, run more than 660 times in the key Minneapolis-St. Paul media market.

Flanagan has served alongside Gov. Tim Walz, who abandoned his plans to seek a third term earlier this year amid the growing welfare-fraud scandal in his state.

“If Amy Klobuchar was not at the top of the ticket running for governor, this Senate race could be one of our biggest problems on the map,” a top Democrat in the state told CNN.

Flanagan earned the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders and other progressive leaders and won the primary over a more moderate challenger, Rep. Angie Craig.

To move beyond the controversies from her time as the state’s lieutenant governor, Flanagan has worked extensively to tie Tafoya to the president and expose her to the midterm headwinds buffeting Republicans in other parts of the country.

In an ad that’s run more than 1,000 times since the start of last month, Flanagan argues that “my opponent, Michelle Tafoya, is all in for Trump’s forever war and these crazy gas prices.”

And she blasts Tafoya over a gaffe from March, when the Republican advices Minnesotans to cope with high costs by keeping a stiff upper lip and “maybe you take one less trip to Starbucks.”

“Michelle Tafoya may not get what you’re going through, but I do,” Flanagan says in the ad.

Another top Flanagan ad drives the point home: “She’s the sideline reporter who’s become a Trump cheerleader.”

Since the primary on August 11, Republicans have very narrowly outspent Democrats on the Minnesota Senate race, about $3.42 million to $3.41 million. Outside groups have largely stayed out of the state, with their spending focused on other marquee races in Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Michigan.

One worry expressed by Democrats is Flanagan’s fundraising.

That was borne out in third quarter fundraising reports for their campaign committees that were filed this week. Tafoya out-raised Flanagan during the quarter, $4.9 million to $4.3 million, and the Republican entered October and the critical final weeks with an advantage in cash on hand, $2.1 million to $1.5 million.

It’s a stark contrast to the performance of Democrats in top-flight battleground races. In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff had raised ten times as much as his GOP challenger, Rep. Mike Collins, through the end of June; in North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper out-raised former RNC chair Michael Whatley by three times.

There are no signs yet that national Democrats are allocating resources to an insurance policy in Minnesota, given the breadth of the Senate battlefield elsewhere. Flanagan accounts for $1.4 million of the $1.8 million in Democratic ad time booked for the final three weeks.

Over that same three-week stretch, Democratic outside groups are spending more than $24 million in Iowa, more than $7 million in Kansas, and more than $2 million in South Carolina – three reliably red states that Trump won comfortably in 2024.

明尼苏达州参议院有一个空缺席位。

共和党在几乎所有摇摆州都拥有巨大的支出优势。

人们心中仍然萦绕着一种不安，那就是民调可能低估了共和党的支持率。

许多民主党人充满乐观，但这仅仅是该党在努力实现重塑华盛顿政治秩序的期望时可能面临的一些潜在障碍。

十几位民主党竞选经理、策略师和党内官员告诉 CNN，在竞选最后两周到来之际，他们最担心的是与共和党势力之间存在巨大的支出差距。

由于民主党人极有可能拿下众议院，特朗普总统和共和党人正努力在那些原本支持共和党的州构筑一道“防火墙”，这些州如今已成为争夺参议院控制权的意外战场。民主党候选人需要争取到至少一部分独立选民和共和党选民的支持，包括那些怀疑自己的选票能否帮助民主党赢得参议院多数席位的选民。

严峻的政治环境使得几乎所有共和党候选人都面临着强有力的挑战。与此同时，民主党人也承认，他们没有犯错的余地，他们必须力争在不失去现有席位的前提下，赢得四个参议院席位。

“所有对民主党有利的客观指标都显示形势乐观，”资深竞选策略师、CNN首席政治分析师大卫·阿克塞尔罗德表示，“但鉴于他们之前曾遭受过挫败，而且现在有大量资金被投入到反对他们的竞选活动中，降低预期也是人之常情。”

明尼苏达州经常被视为美国最“红”的“蓝”州，这使得它成为民主党密切关注的地区之一，如果“蓝色浪潮”未能出现，该地区可能会出现麻烦的迹象。

与中西部其他州出人意料地多的竞争激烈的参议员选举相比，接替即将退休的蒂娜·史密斯的竞选基本上没有引起太多关注。一位州民主党官员告诉CNN，民主党籍副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根和共和党籍前体育播音员米歇尔·塔福亚之间的竞争“势均力敌，令人担忧”。

两人计划于周五举行唯一一场辩论。

自今年秋季大选竞选活动正式开始以来，塔福亚就一直刻意与特朗普和共和党划清界限，她认识到，在一个20年来都没有选出过共和党全州候选人的州，政治现实是这样的。

“我是一名支持堕胎权的共和党人。我不怕与我的党派作对，”她在上周发布的一则广告中说道，直接向独立选民和温和派共和党选民发出呼吁。“当特朗普是对的时候，我会与他合作。当他错了的时候，我会捍卫明尼苏达州的利益。”

本周，总统在俄亥俄州的一次集会上就这场选举发表了看法，他说：“你们必须投票给米歇尔·塔福亚。”第二天，当被问及此事时，塔福亚却罕见地淡化了总统的认可，成为少数几位公开表示支持自己的共和党人之一。

“我听说了这件事，”塔福亚告诉记者。“听着，这场竞选的目的是团结所有明尼苏达州人，无论他们投票给了特朗普总统还是卡马拉·哈里斯。”

2016年，特朗普在该州的得票率仅比对手低不到2个百分点；2024年，他在该州的得票率也仅比对手低约4个百分点。

在竞选的最后阶段，塔福亚在另一则竞选广告中敦促明尼苏达州的选民尝试一些不同的东西。

“明尼苏达州长期以来一直由同一批政治人物把持，这种模式行不通。这不是红蓝之争，而是正义与邪恶之争，”她在广告中说道。“我将成为明尼苏达州的独立发声者，因为我们不需要更多同样的政客继续找同样的借口。”

然而，塔福亚仍然有意识地向保守派选民发出呼吁，她强烈批评该州的福利欺诈丑闻，同时利用她作为 NFL 场边记者和当地电台主持人时积累的异常高的知名度。

“我从事足球报道30年，我学到了一件事：当你犯下如此严重的错误时，你就会被解雇。数亿美元被盗，原本用于帮助饥饿儿童的钱就这么没了，”她在9月份以来播出次数最多的广告中说道，该广告在明尼阿波利斯-圣保罗这一关键媒体市场播放了660多次。

弗拉纳根曾与州长蒂姆·沃尔兹共事，沃尔兹因该州日益严重的福利欺诈丑闻，于今年早些时候放弃了寻求第三个任期的计划。

“如果艾米·克洛布查尔没有成为州长候选人，那么这场参议院竞选可能会成为我们面临的最大问题之一，”该州一位民主党高层人士告诉 CNN。

弗拉纳根获得了参议员伯尼·桑德斯和其他进步派领导人的支持，并在初选中击败了较为温和的挑战者、众议员安吉·克雷格。

为了摆脱担任该州副州长期间的争议，弗拉纳根不遗余力地将塔福亚与总统联系起来，并让她感受到中期选​​举给共和党在全国其他地区带来的不利影响。

在上个月初以来播放了 1000 多次的广告中，弗拉纳根声称“我的对手米歇尔·塔福亚完全支持特朗普发动的永无休止的战争和这些疯狂的汽油价格”。

她还抨击了塔福亚在三月份的一次失言，当时这位共和党人建议明尼苏达州居民要应对高昂的生活成本，就要保持坚强，“也许你可以少去一次星巴克”。

“米歇尔·塔福亚可能无法理解你的处境，但我能，”弗拉纳根在广告中说道。

弗拉纳根的另一则热门广告更是直击要害：“她原本是场边记者，现在却成了特朗普的啦啦队员。”

自8月11日初选以来，共和党在明尼苏达州参议员竞选中的支出略微超过民主党，约为342万美元对341万美元。外部团体基本上没有涉足该州，而是将资金集中在德克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、爱荷华州和密歇根州的其他重要竞选上。

民主党人表达的一个担忧是弗拉纳根的筹款能力。

本周提交的竞选委员会第三季度筹款报告证实了这一点。塔福亚本季度筹款额超过弗拉纳根，分别为490万美元和430万美元。进入10月以及关键的最后几周，这位共和党候选人手头现金也占优，达到210万美元，而弗拉纳根仅为150万美元。

这与民主党在关键摇摆州的竞选表现形成了鲜明对比。在佐治亚州，截至6月底，民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫的筹款额是共和党挑战者、众议员迈克·柯林斯的十倍；在北卡罗来纳州，前州长罗伊·库珀的筹款额是前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利的三倍。

鉴于其他地区参议院选情胶着，目前尚无迹象表明民主党全国委员会正在为明尼苏达州的竞选活动投入资源以制定“保险”策略。在民主党预定的最后三周180万美元广告时段中，弗拉纳根的广告费就占了140万美元。

在同一三周的时间里，民主党外部团体在爱荷华州花费了超过 2400 万美元，在堪萨斯州花费了超过 700 万美元，在南卡罗来纳州花费了超过 200 万美元——这三个州都是铁杆共和党州，特朗普在 2024 年轻松赢得了这三个州。