Can Russia help ease tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan?

Russia has close ties with the Taliban and is courting Islamabad, but analysts say its leverage remains uncertain.

Russia's Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev meets Pakistan's Chief of Defence Forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir in Rawalpindi, October 14, 2026 [Handout/Inter-Services Public Relations]

Islamabad, Pakistan – Sitting with his elbows on his knees, Russia’s Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev leaned towards Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for talks in Rawalpindi on October 14.

While Kolokoltsev was in Pakistan, Sergey Naryshkin, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), flew into Kabul to meet the Taliban’s intelligence chief, Abdul Haq Wasiq.

list 1 of 4 How much of a challenge are recurrent bombings for Pakistan?

list 2 of 4 Afghanistan vows to respond after Pakistani air strikes kill four

list 3 of 4 Afghanistan says 28 fighters killed as Islamabad, Kabul trade accusations

list 4 of 4 Pakistan launches deadly air attacks on Afghanistan

Officially, Russia, Pakistan and Afghanistan have issued little beyond standard statements about the meetings. But the signs are clear: Pakistan and Afghanistan have spent the past year exchanging fire and public threats. Qatar and Turkiye brokered a ceasefire in Doha last October and China hosted talks in Urumqi in April, but attacks inside Pakistan continued. Islamabad again struck Afghan territory in June, September and this month.

Russia now appears to be stepping in as a mediator.

Moscow’s special representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, told Russia’s TASS news agency earlier this month that his country was ready to play peace broker between Kabul and Islamabad if both sides requested it.

Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia, Faisal Niaz Tirmizi, said in March that Islamabad had approached Moscow. The Taliban, though, have not publicly requested Russian mediation, raising questions about how much and in what capacity Moscow can push Pakistan and Afghanistan to talks when other mediators have struggled.

A complicated history adds to the challenge Russia faces.

A diplomatic opening

Pakistan’s military media wing, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), said the Rawalpindi meeting discussed issues of “mutual interest and the regional security environment, with particular emphasis on strengthening bilateral security cooperation.”

The statement did not mention Afghanistan and neither Russian officials nor the Taliban have disclosed what the intelligence chiefs discussed. Moscow has, however, voiced concern about the fighting.

“We are seriously concerned about the ongoing military confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which affects civilians, including children,” the Russian embassy in Kabul posted on X earlier this month.

The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said Pakistani strikes between September 30 and October 1 killed at least 10 civilians , mostly children.

In decades past, the idea of Russia mediating between Pakistan and the Taliban might have been unthinkable. Throughout the Cold War and even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was – and remains in many ways – one of the closest strategic and military partners of India, the neighbour Pakistan has fought multiple wars against. While in Afghanistan, Russia backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban throughout the 1990s.

But in recent years, Russia has significantly strengthened relations with both Pakistan and the Taliban. Then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was in Moscow when Russian forces invaded Ukraine in 2022. Last year, Russia became the first country in the world to officially recognise the Taliban government in Afghanistan.

Those shifts have been driven by Russia’s desire to broaden its options in South Asia, at a time when India has embraced the United States and to counter the rise of the Afghan branch of ISIL, also known as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province or ISKP. While the Taliban are concerned with ruling Afghanistan, ISKP has broader territorial ambitions and carried out an attack in Moscow in 2024 that killed nearly 150 people. The Taliban and the ISKP are sworn enemies.

Fighting between Pakistan and the Taliban created regional instability and Moscow was worried that could make it easier for armed groups to spill into Central Asia, said Taimur Khan, a research associate at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI).

“Mediation also helps Moscow preserve its regional influence and avoid a vacuum that could invite renewed extra-regional involvement,” he told Al Jazeera.

Why mediation stalled

Qatar and Turkiye brokered a ceasefire between Pakistan and the Taliban in Doha last October, but talks in Istanbul collapsed the following month and skirmishes resumed. Islamabad also launched air raids inside Afghanistan. China hosted talks in Urumqi in April.

In mid-September, Turkiye’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, met Taliban officials in Kabul and Kandahar before travelling to Islamabad.

An attack in Kohat followed on September 18, with Pakistan striking Afghanistan on September 24 and October 1.

“Other actors have so far achieved more tangible mediation results in this conflict,” Eldaniz Gusseinov, a Central Asia analyst and head of research at the geopolitical foresight agency, Nightingale Int, told Al Jazeera.

Russia’s own effort stalled at a Moscow meeting on October 5.

Kabulov told TASS that the Afghan delegation objected to Afghanistan being mentioned too often in connection with “terrorism”.

“For Pakistan, this is a substantive security issue, not merely a matter of wording,” Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson, Sajjad Haider Khan, said on October 9 at a weekly media briefing.

Kabul-based security analyst Tameem Bahiss said the objection reflected Kabul’s longstanding position.

“Accepting language that repeatedly associates Afghanistan with terrorism could be seen as an acknowledgement of the very allegations Kabul has consistently denied,” he told Al Jazeera.

Officials at the Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan in Moscow, October 5, 2026 [Handout/Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

At the Moscow meeting, Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq, said “terrorism” remained at the core of Afghanistan’s problems.

Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said the two countries’ problems could be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy, according to Afghan media.

Pakistan says the Pakistani Taliban and other armed groups shelter in Afghanistan.

Kabul rejects the allegation, saying it does not allow its territory to be used against other countries and that Pakistan’s security problems are largely internal, Bahiss said.

Moscow’s public warnings have focused on the ISKP.

“There is no visible public pressure from Russia on the Taliban over Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Moscow is unlikely to exert such pressure,” Gusseinov said. TTP is the official name of the Pakistani Taliban, which is behind dozens of the deadliest attacks Pakistan has suffered in recent years.

He argued that pressing the Taliban hard on Pakistan’s behalf would undermine Moscow’s standing as a neutral mediator and its partnership with the Taliban against ISKP.

“Russia’s primary concern is ISKP and it appears satisfied with the Taliban’s efforts to counter the group,” Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based analyst specialising in armed groups and security dynamics in Afghanistan and Pakistan, told Al Jazeera.

Still, Russia has something earlier mediators did not. In July 2025, it became the only country to recognise the Taliban government.

Taimur Khan said that could give Moscow another source of influence.

“The Taliban authorities’ interest in preserving that recognition and expanding cooperation with Moscow could give Russia additional influence in seeking action against the TTP and other terrorist groups operating from Afghanistan,” he said.

In May, the two sides signed an unpublished military-technical agreement covering, according to Kabulov, the repair and maintenance of equipment the Taliban already hold, mostly Soviet and Russian-made.

Three days after the signing, the Taliban’s Defence Minister, Mohammad Yaqoob, said Pakistan would soon no longer dare to launch strikes.

On June 9 and 10, Pakistani aircraft struck Kunar, Khost and Paktika provinces, killing 13 civilians, according to the Afghan government.

“Russia has greater access to the Taliban than any other major power, but its actual leverage is considerably more limited than is often assumed,” analyst Gusseinov said.

Sayed said senior Taliban leaders continued visiting Russia and India as fighting escalated, seemingly signalling they could offset Pakistan’s military superiority through new alignments.

“While the military and political significance of these ties remains unclear, the Taliban present such diplomatic developments to the Afghan public, particularly their supporters, as political achievements that reinforce their image of strength,” he said.

Pakistan chairs the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) for 2026-27 and will host the 10-member bloc’s summit in Islamabad next year.

The Taliban were not invited to this year’s summit in Bishkek , where members called for an inclusive government in Kabul.

On July 16, then-Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said Afghanistan first needed diplomatic relations with member states, when asked whether Pakistan was blocking its inclusion in the SCO.

In September, Tirmizi, the Pakistani envoy in Moscow, said he did not see full SCO membership for Afghanistan as an option under the current Taliban government.

“The chairmanship strengthens Moscow’s reasons to invest in its relationship with Pakistan and manage differences over Afghanistan constructively,” Taimur Khan said.

The Foreign Office did not answer Al Jazeera’s questions about whether the Taliban would be invited next year.

“I cannot recall an instance where Kabul has explicitly requested Moscow to mediate between the two countries,” Bahiss said. “Nevertheless, Kabul’s repeated calls for diplomacy and its relatively close relations with Russia suggest that it would likely welcome Russian mediation if Moscow offered to play such a role.”

俄罗斯与塔利班关系密切，并正在拉拢伊斯兰堡，但分析人士表示，其影响力仍然不确定。

2026年10月14日，俄罗斯内政部长弗拉基米尔·科洛科尔采夫在拉瓦尔品第会见了巴基斯坦国防军总司令阿西姆·穆尼尔元帅。[图片由三军公共关系部提供]

巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡——10 月 14 日，俄罗斯内政部长弗拉基米尔·科洛科尔采夫在拉瓦尔品第与巴基斯坦陆军参谋长阿西姆·穆尼尔元帅会谈时，双肘撑在膝盖上，身体前倾。

科洛科尔采夫在巴基斯坦期间，俄罗斯对外情报局局长谢尔盖·纳雷什金飞抵喀布尔，会见了塔利班情报局长阿卜杜勒·哈克·瓦西克。

问题 1/4：反复发生的爆炸事件对巴基斯坦构成多大的挑战？

（共4条，第2条）阿富汗誓言对巴基斯坦空袭致四人死亡的事件作出回应）

阿富汗方面称有28名武装分子被打死，伊斯兰堡和喀布尔互相指责（名单共4份，此为第3份）

巴基斯坦对阿富汗发动致命空袭（共4条，此为第4条）

官方层面，俄罗斯、巴基斯坦和阿富汗就此次会晤发表的声明仅限于一些常规声明。但种种迹象表明：过去一年，巴基斯坦和阿富汗一直在交火并互相发出公开威胁。去年10月，卡塔尔和土耳其在多哈斡旋达成停火协议；今年4月，中国在乌鲁木齐主持了会谈；但巴基斯坦境内的袭击事件仍在继续。伊斯兰堡分别在6月、9月和本月再次袭击了阿富汗领土。

俄罗斯现在似乎正在介入调解。

莫斯科阿富汗问题特别代表扎米尔·卡布洛夫本月早些时候告诉俄罗斯塔斯社，如果喀布尔和伊斯兰堡双方提出要求，俄罗斯准备在双方之间扮演和平斡旋者的角色。

巴基斯坦驻俄罗斯大使费萨尔·尼亚兹·蒂尔米兹三月份表示，伊斯兰堡已与莫斯科接洽。然而，塔利班并未公开请求俄罗斯进行调解，这引发了人们的疑问：在其他调解方都举步维艰的情况下，莫斯科究竟能在多大程度上、以何种方式推动巴基斯坦和阿富汗进行对话？

复杂的历史加剧了俄罗斯面临的挑战。

外交开端

巴基斯坦军方媒体机构三军公共关系部（ISPR）表示，拉瓦尔品第会议讨论了“共同关心的问题和地区安全环境，尤其强调加强双边安全合作”。

声明中没有提及阿富汗，俄罗斯官员和塔利班方面均未透露情报部门负责人讨论了哪些内容。不过，莫斯科方面已对阿富汗战事表示关切。

“我们对巴基斯坦和阿富汗之间持续不断的军事对抗深表关切，这场对抗影响到包括儿童在内的平民，”俄罗斯驻喀布尔大使馆本月早些时候在X上发帖称。

联合国阿富汗援助团（联阿援助团）表示，巴基斯坦在9月30日至10月1日期间发动的空袭造成至少10名平民死亡，其中大部分是儿童。

在过去几十年里，俄罗斯在巴基斯坦和塔利班之间进行调解的想法或许是不可想象的。在整个冷战期间，甚至在苏联解体后，俄罗斯一直是——并且在许多方面仍然是——印度最亲密的战略和军事伙伴之一。而印度是巴基斯坦的邻国，巴基斯坦曾与印度发生过多次战争。在阿富汗，俄罗斯在整个20世纪90年代都支持北方联盟对抗塔利班。

但近年来，俄罗斯显著加强了与巴基斯坦和塔利班的关系。2022年俄罗斯军队入侵乌克兰时，时任巴基斯坦总理伊姆兰·汗正在莫斯科。去年，俄罗斯成为世界上第一个正式承认阿富汗塔利班政权的国家。

这些转变源于俄罗斯希望在南亚拓展其选择，而此时印度已转向美国，俄罗斯此举也是为了遏制“伊斯兰国”阿富汗分支（又称“呼罗珊省伊斯兰国”或“ISKP”）的崛起。塔利班的目标是统治阿富汗，而ISKP则拥有更广泛的领土野心，并于2024年在莫斯科发动袭击，造成近150人死亡。塔利班和ISKP是宿敌。

巴基斯坦与塔利班之间的战斗造成了地区不稳定，莫斯科担心这可能会使武装团体更容易蔓延到中亚，伊斯兰堡战略研究所 (ISSI) 的研究员泰穆尔·汗 (Taimur Khan) 表示。

“调解还有助于莫斯科维护其地区影响力，避免出现可能招致域外势力再次介入的权力真空，”他告诉半岛电视台。

调解为何陷入僵局

去年10月，卡塔尔和土耳其在多哈斡旋巴基斯坦和塔利班达成停火协议，但次月在伊斯坦布尔举行的会谈破裂，冲突再次爆发。伊斯兰堡还对阿富汗境内发动了空袭。今年4月，中国在乌鲁木齐主持了会谈。

9月中旬，土耳其情报局长易卜拉欣·卡林在前往伊斯兰堡之前，先后在喀布尔和坎大哈会见了塔利班官员。

9 月 18 日，科哈特遭到袭击；9 月 24 日和 10 月 1 日，巴基斯坦又袭击了阿富汗。

“到目前为止，其他各方在这场冲突中取得了更切实的调解成果，”中亚分析师、地缘政治前瞻机构 Nightingale Int 的研究主管埃尔达尼兹·古塞诺夫 (Eldaniz Gusseinov) 告诉半岛电视台。

俄罗斯自身的努力在10月5日莫斯科举行的一次会议上陷入停滞。

卡布洛夫告诉塔斯社，阿富汗代表团反对阿富汗与“恐怖主义”联系在一起的次数过多。

巴基斯坦外交部发言人萨贾德·海德尔·汗 (Sajjad Haider Khan) 于 10 月 9 日在每周例行媒体简报会上表示：“对巴基斯坦而言，这是一个实质性的安全问题，而不仅仅是措辞问题。”

喀布尔安全分析师塔米姆·巴希斯表示，这一反对意见反映了喀布尔长期以来的立场。

“接受反复将阿富汗与恐怖主义联系起来的言论，可能会被视为承认喀布尔一直否认的这些指控，”他告诉半岛电视台。

2026年10月5日，在莫斯科举行的阿富汗问题莫斯科模式磋商会议上的官员们 [巴基斯坦外交部供图]

在莫斯科会议上，巴基斯坦阿富汗问题特别代表穆罕默德·萨迪克表示，“恐怖主义”仍然是阿富汗问题的核心。

据阿富汗媒体报道，塔利班外交部长阿米尔·汗·穆塔基表示，两国的问题可以通过对话和外交途径解决。

巴基斯坦方面称，巴基斯坦塔利班和其他武装团体藏身于阿富汗境内。

巴希斯表示，喀布尔方面驳斥了这一指控，称巴基斯坦不允许其领土被用于攻击其他国家，并表示巴基斯坦的安全问题主要是内部问题。

莫斯科的公开警告主要集中在“伊斯兰国呼罗珊省”（ISKP）身上。

古塞诺夫表示：“俄罗斯并未就巴基斯坦塔利班运动（TTP）向塔利班施加任何公开压力，莫斯科也不太可能施加此类压力。”巴基斯坦塔利班运动（TTP）是巴基斯坦塔利班的正式名称，该组织策划了近年来巴基斯坦遭受的数十起最致命的袭击事件。

他认为，代表巴基斯坦向塔利班施压会削弱莫斯科作为中立调解人的地位，以及莫斯科与塔利班对抗“伊斯兰国呼罗珊省”（ISKP）的伙伴关系。

“俄罗斯最关心的是ISKP，而且它似乎对塔利班打击该组织的努力感到满意，”专门研究阿富汗和巴基斯坦武装团体及安全动态的瑞典分析师阿卜杜勒·赛义德告诉半岛电视台。

然而，俄罗斯拥有此前调解方所不具备的优势。2025年7月，俄罗斯成为唯一承认塔利班政府的国家。

帖木儿汗说，这可能会给莫斯科带来另一个影响力来源。

他说：“塔利班当局希望维护这一承认并扩大与莫斯科的合作，这可能会使俄罗斯在寻求对巴基斯坦塔利班运动和其他在阿富汗活动的恐怖组织采取行动方面拥有更大的影响力。”

5 月，双方签署了一项未公开的军事技术协议，据卡布洛夫称，该协议涵盖了塔利班已拥有的装备的维修和保养，这些装备大多是苏联和俄罗斯制造的。

签署协议三天后，塔利班国防部长穆罕默德·雅库布表示，巴基斯坦很快将不再敢发动袭击。

据阿富汗政府称，6月9日和10日，巴基斯坦飞机袭击了库纳尔省、霍斯特省和帕克蒂卡省，造成13名平民死亡。

分析人士古塞诺夫表示：“俄罗斯比任何其他大国都更容易接触到塔利班，但其实际影响力远比人们通常认为的要有限得多。”

赛义德表示，随着战斗升级，塔利班高级领导人继续访问俄罗斯和印度，这似乎表明他们可以通过建立新的联盟来抵消巴基斯坦的军事优势。

他说：“虽然这些关系的军事和政治意义尚不明确，但塔利班将这些外交进展向阿富汗公众，特别是他们的支持者，视为巩固其强大形象的政治成就。”

巴基斯坦将担任2026-2027年度上海合作组织（上合组织）轮值主席国，并将于明年在伊斯兰堡主办该10个成员国的峰会。

塔利班没有受邀参加今年在比什凯克举行的峰会，峰会上，塔利班成员呼吁在喀布尔建立一个包容各方的政府。

7月16日，时任外交部发言人塔希尔·安德拉比在被问及巴基斯坦是否阻止阿富汗加入上海合作组织时表示，阿富汗首先需要与成员国建立外交关系。

9 月，巴基斯坦驻莫斯科大使蒂尔米兹表示，在塔利班现任政府统治下，他认为阿富汗没有可能成为上海合作组织的正式成员。

“这一轮值主席国职位加强了莫斯科投资于与巴基斯坦关系以及建设性地管控阿富汗问题分歧的理由，”泰穆尔·汗说。

英国外交部没有回答半岛电视台关于明年是否会邀请塔利班的问题。

巴希斯说：“我记不起喀布尔曾明确要求莫斯科在两国之间进行调解。然而，喀布尔一再呼吁通过外交途径解决问题，而且与俄罗斯关系相对密切，这表明如果莫斯科愿意发挥调解作用，喀布尔很可能会欢迎。”