Hurricane Lowell makes final turn toward Hawaii as islands brace for impacts

Hawaii is under a state of emergency as powerful Hurricane Lowell takes aim at the state, with impacts starting Monday. It’s the third storm in just over three weeks to target Hawaii, as El Niño supercharges the Pacific hurricane season.

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Lowell is a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph, traveling northwest at 6 mph early Sunday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. It has fluctuated between categories as it undergoes the normal cycling of a major hurricane.

The storm is forecast to be near Category 2 strength when it makes its closest approach to Hawaii. Lowell’s center is expected to pass within about 130 miles west of Niihau, or 170 miles west of Kauai, from later Monday night through Tuesday morning, according to the hurricane center.

That distance keeps the worst of the hurricane’s winds offshore, but Hawaii will still feel Lowell’s effects through dangerous surf and heavy rain.

Over the past several days, Lowell has been trapped underneath a weak upper-level area of high pressure, which has acted as a force field for Hawaii, forcing the storm to keep traveling west and stay south of the islands.

But that high-pressure system will weaken this weekend as a trough of cold air dives in from the north Pacific and interacts with a nearby area of low pressure. Freed from the high pressure’s influence, Lowell will make a dramatic right turn — swinging north to scrape by Hawaii’s western islands.

The setup bears a resemblance to 1992’s Hurricane Iniki, which came ashore on Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane and remains Hawaii’s worst storm on record. But this time, Lowell is forecast to stay far enough offshore to avoid a direct hit.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency for the entire state on Thursday to free up state resources and activate Hawaii National Guard units. Six high-water vehicles are also being deployed to Kauai, he said .

Tropical storm watches were issued for the islands of Kauai and Niihau on Sunday, meaning tropical storm conditions with winds over 39 mph are possible within the following 48 hours. Tropical storm-force winds will likely be confined to the western islands.

Swells from Lowell are already producing hazardous surf across the state, and a high surf advisory is in effect for south-facing shores. Waves could reach up to 14 feet through Sunday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

Heavy rain will threaten the entire state. Lowell is forecast to drop 4 to 6 inches of rain on Kauai, Niihau and the Big Island, with isolated totals of up to 10 inches possible. Lower amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for Oahu, Molokai, Lanai and Maui, but those islands could see up to 8 inches in the mountainous areas.

The National Hurricane Center has warned of “significant flash flooding and mudslides,” especially in steep terrain.

El Niño is helping fuel increased storm potential in the central Pacific this year, warming ocean temperatures in the region and weakening storm-killing upper-level winds, on top of an ocean already warming from climate change.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast an above-average central Pacific season, with five to 13 cyclones expected.

夏威夷州宣布进入紧急状态，强飓风“洛厄尔”正逼近该州，预计从周一开始影响该州。这是短短三周多时间内袭击夏威夷的第三场风暴，厄尔尼诺现象加剧了太平洋飓风季的强度。

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据美国国家飓风中心消息，洛厄尔飓风是三级飓风，风速达每小时125英里，于周日清晨以每小时6英里的速度向西北方向移动。它正经历着大型飓风的正常循环，强度在各级别之间波动。

据飓风中心预测，风暴在最接近夏威夷时强度将接近二级飓风。洛厄尔的中心预计将于周一晚间至周二早晨期间，从尼豪岛以西约130英里（约209公里）或考艾岛以西约170英里（约274公里）处经过。

这段距离使得飓风最猛烈的风力远离海岸，但夏威夷仍将受到洛厄尔飓风的影响，包括危险的巨浪和暴雨。

过去几天，洛厄尔一直被困在一个较弱的高空高压区之下，这个高压区就像一个力场，迫使风暴继续向西移动，并停留在夏威夷群岛的南部。

但随着一股冷空气槽从北太平洋涌入，并与附近的低气压区相互作用，这个高压系统将在本周末减弱。摆脱了高压的影响后，洛厄尔将发生剧烈的右转——向北移动，掠过夏威夷西部岛屿。

此次的路径与1992年的飓风伊尼基颇为相似，伊尼基以四级飓风的强度登陆考艾岛，至今仍是夏威夷有记录以来最严重的飓风。但这一次，预计洛厄尔飓风将远离海岸，从而避免正面袭击考艾岛。

夏威夷州州长乔什·格林周四宣布全州进入紧急状态，以便调动州政府资源并启动夏威夷国民警卫队。他还表示，六辆高水位救援车也将部署到考艾岛。

周日，考艾岛和尼豪岛发布了热带风暴预警，这意味着未来48小时内可能出现风速超过39英里/小时的热带风暴天气。热带风暴级别的强风可能仅限于西部岛屿。

来自洛厄尔的涌浪已在全州范围内造成危险巨浪，南向海岸已发布巨浪警报。据檀香山国家气象局预报，周日下午之前，浪高可能高达14英尺。

强降雨将威胁整个夏威夷州。预计洛厄尔将给考艾岛、尼豪岛和夏威夷大岛带来4到6英寸的降雨，局部地区降雨量可能高达10英寸。瓦胡岛、莫洛凯岛、拉奈岛和毛伊岛的降雨量预计较低，为2到4英寸，但这些岛屿的山区降雨量可能高达8英寸。

美国国家飓风中心警告称，可能会出现“严重的突发性洪水和泥石流”，尤其是在地形陡峭的地区。

今年，厄尔尼诺现象加剧了中太平洋地区风暴的可能性，导致该地区海洋温度升高，并削弱了原本会摧毁风暴的高空风，而气候变化已经导致海洋变暖。

美国国家海洋和大气管理局预测，中太平洋地区今年的飓风季将高于平均水平，预计将有 5 至 13 个飓风。